***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,560,887 Views | 47750 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by Teslag
PJYoung
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Eliminatus said:

I also would not be surprised if Ukes had a hand in this. Not saying they did, just saying it would not be out of left field for me if it came out they planted a bomb or something. They have shown a greater capacity to "reach and touch people" over the last year. If Prigozhins name on the flight list was publicly available. ..
Why would they ever kill a dude that marched on Moscow with 2,000 of his closest friends?
74OA
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Eliminatus
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PJYoung said:

Eliminatus said:

I also would not be surprised if Ukes had a hand in this. Not saying they did, just saying it would not be out of left field for me if it came out they planted a bomb or something. They have shown a greater capacity to "reach and touch people" over the last year. If Prigozhins name on the flight list was publicly available. ..
Why would they ever kill a dude that marched on Moscow with 2,000 of his closest friends?


The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy.

Bakhmut. Ukraines Alamo. Pringles didn't start it and he wasn't the only one in that show for Russia but he was the face of it. If you can find a forgiving Uke from that, I would be impressed.

And he has been very direct and consistent that Ukraine still needs to fall, even after his own failed march on Moscow.

Just spitballing though ultimately. My knee jerk guess is still Putin himself, someone acting for Putin or even just a jaded RuAF commander acting on his own who hadn't forgotten their 11 dead comrades back when Prigozhin marched.
LMCane
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74OA said:

Latest on Prigozhin's final flight to his special place in hell.

CRASH
If the Ukes can ever break through the current second defensive line in front of Tokmak and get close to Berdiansk...

with NO WAGNER left as an emergency mobile reserve to send to the threatened areas of the front lines...


whoa baby.
P.U.T.U
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Eliminatus said:

PJYoung said:

Eliminatus said:

I also would not be surprised if Ukes had a hand in this. Not saying they did, just saying it would not be out of left field for me if it came out they planted a bomb or something. They have shown a greater capacity to "reach and touch people" over the last year. If Prigozhins name on the flight list was publicly available. ..
Why would they ever kill a dude that marched on Moscow with 2,000 of his closest friends?


The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy.

Bakhmut. Ukraines Alamo. Pringles didn't start it and he wasn't the only one in that show for Russia but he was the face of it. If you can find a forgiving Uke from that, I would be impressed.

And he has been very direct and consistent that Ukraine still needs to fall, even after his own failed march on Moscow.

Just spitballing though ultimately. My knee jerk guess is still Putin himself, someone acting for Putin or even just a jaded RuAF commander acting on his own who hadn't forgotten their 11 dead comrades back when Prigozhin marched.
That is broken logic that has led to a lot of power vacuums
sclaff
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Ulysses90 said:

sclaff said:

For those in the know, any comments on the assertion below of the superiority of 155 v. 152?


In terms of burst radius and lethality on target there isn't a big difference between the 152mm and the 155mm. The M795 shell family does have significantly improved lethality by better fragmentation than the old M107 shells but the difference between the 152mm and 155mm weapons really comes down to four ingredients.

1. Better breeches and tubes that are perhaps more accurate and have longer range (with <50 caliber length tubes) plus, the Ukrainians are replacing their tubes and not using them after they are worn out.

2. Terminal guidance packages on the projectile that allow the Ukrainians to use a single round to hit precisely rather than a disbursed sheaf. The numerous videos of nearly direct hits on Russian vehicles by a single gun are really impressive.

3. Better gun systems that can emplace quickly, fire a mission, then displace before the Russians can response with counterbattery fire.

That photo in that tweet is significant because it shows a GIAT Caesar and not a towed howitzer. The Caesar can fire the first round 60 seconds after the wheels stop turning and displace 45 seconds after the last round is fired. That makes them much more survivable than a towed howitzer that longer to displace. If the Ukrainians are using raid tactics to move batteries forward in order to hit targets farther behind the lines then rapid emplacement and displacement is a differentiating capability from D-20s or MSTAs.



thank you. very informative
74OA
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sclaff said:

Ulysses90 said:

sclaff said:

For those in the know, any comments on the assertion below of the superiority of 155 v. 152?


In terms of burst radius and lethality on target there isn't a big difference between the 152mm and the 155mm. The M795 shell family does have significantly improved lethality by better fragmentation than the old M107 shells but the difference between the 152mm and 155mm weapons really comes down to four ingredients.

1. Better breeches and tubes that are perhaps more accurate and have longer range (with <50 caliber length tubes) plus, the Ukrainians are replacing their tubes and not using them after they are worn out.

2. Terminal guidance packages on the projectile that allow the Ukrainians to use a single round to hit precisely rather than a disbursed sheaf. The numerous videos of nearly direct hits on Russian vehicles by a single gun are really impressive.

3. Better gun systems that can emplace quickly, fire a mission, then displace before the Russians can response with counterbattery fire.

That photo in that tweet is significant because it shows a GIAT Caesar and not a towed howitzer. The Caesar can fire the first round 60 seconds after the wheels stop turning and displace 45 seconds after the last round is fired. That makes them much more survivable than a towed howitzer that longer to displace. If the Ukrainians are using raid tactics to move batteries forward in order to hit targets farther behind the lines then rapid emplacement and displacement is a differentiating capability from D-20s or MSTAs.



thank you. very informative
There's also considerable reporting that the Russians have gone thru their modern artillery ammo and are increasingly using very old rounds and charges long in storage resulting in less reliable range and explosive power.
PJYoung
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P.U.T.U
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The main thing to consider about old artillery is if you are in the blast radius (the crater area) then you are a goner, if you are outside of it you are normally okay unless some random shrapnel gets you.

The new air burst rounds have a lot larger casualty rate which is why they do not require as many rounds.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Edit: Deleted, as I missed it was posted a couple pages back.
74OA
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More on the strike on the S-400.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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74OA
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Rossticus said:


See "Submarine" article linked on page 1181.
Rossticus
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74OA
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More on the Russian helicopter which was supposedly flown by its defecting pilot to Ukraine.

MI-8
AGS-R-TUFF
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Rossticus said:




If true, get your popcorn ready. This could get interesting.
TheVarian
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While I would love another "coup" I highly doubt they do anything
AGS-R-TUFF
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TheVarian said:

While I would love another "coup" I highly doubt they do anything
Yes, but imagine the sabotage possibilities on the poorly trained Orcs already in theater. Wagner knows a crap ton about the Orc ops.
TheVarian
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It would be glorious, and if I were a three letter agency I'd be pumping that propaganda religiously as well as some gorilla tactics periodically.

ETA: I suck at typing.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian flag raised over Robotyne village of Zaporizhzhia region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/23-august-ukrainian-flag-raised-over-robotyne-village-of

Reported on LiveUaMap 8 hours ago!
Waffledynamics
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Interesting new format for STT. Informative video so far, but I'm not far into it.

GAC06
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Rossticus said:




Community notes is already doing work on that one. "Surplus" hornets are currently available from Australia and from us. But they're clapped out and tired. Better than nothing but a maintenance nightmare even for an experienced cadre of maintainers and logistical support.
10thYrSr
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TheVarian said:

While I would love another "coup" I highly doubt they do anything


News says Wagner troops are being deployed to Africa. I would imagine that Russia deployed them there to cause less havoc nearby. No idea if true but brilliant on the part of the russkies
P.U.T.U
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Wagner has been in Russia for over a decade. They help protect Russias natural resources they took from the Africans
sclaff
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ABATTBQ11
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Nvmd. Whole tweet wasn't loading.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian Defence Forces continue offensive operations at Bakhmut and Melitopol directions, have success at Novodanylivka and Novoprokopivka directions, south to Bakhmut, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-august-ukrainian-defence-forces-continue-offensive-operations

74OA
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What now for Wagner after Prigozhin's death? Business as usual is likely for its subsidiaries around the world as they've always been semi-autonomous fiefdoms. Additionally, Putin still sees value in sponsoring Wagner's deniable "grey zone" operations which advance the Kremlin's interests.

FUTURE
LMCane
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The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) announced and posted footage of a strike on a Russian S-400 long and medium-range anti-aircraft missile system near Olenivka, Crimea (116km northwest of Sevastopol and about 140km south of Kherson City).

GUR reported that the strike destroyed an air defense installation, an unspecified number of missiles, and killed nearby Russian military personnel, though the footage only shows part of the installation exploding.

A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger suggested that Ukrainian forces likely used a Harpoon, Neptune, or Brimstone II missile to strike the air defense system.

Russian milbloggers expressed concern that Ukrainian forces were able to operate a drone and record footage of the strike roughly 120km behind the current frontline.

Another Embarrassment for Putin
JFABNRGR
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Combined Arms Assault on orc trench. Brutal at end NSFW. Assuming same point man in both parts of trench he alone has at least 6 KIA.

I would like to have seen the line charge detonate that was shot over and between UKE armor at the :19 second mark. Maybe we don't because of fratricide??

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1604vqs/ukrainian_soldiers_of_the_30th_mechanized_brigade/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
74OA
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Ukrainian special forces staged a small raid on the coast of Crimea. Not much is definitively known about the objectives or results but, if nothing else, it may prompt the Russians to divert resources to improve rear area security at the cost of fewer reinforcement for their front lines.

SOF
RogerEnright
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Quote:

Russian milbloggers expressed concern that Ukrainian forces were able to operate a drone and record footage of the strike roughly 120km behind the current frontline.
Filming an air defense system's destruction from a missile sort of screams impunity.

The whole operation should raise a lot of questions for the Russians.
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