You get to Tokmak and then you make Melitopol untenable for the Russians with constant barrages.

I think that's the plan by winter. Gain footholds for artillery then pound melitipol all winter prior to another offensive next spring.

Putin is just hoping to hold on until the US elections at this point.

fullback44 said:

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So I did some deep diving into missile Defense systems and found out some interesting information. The info came from todays Sitrep report. So there are mainly 3 levels of missile defense.

Long Range : Arrow 2 and Arrow 3
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3

Medium Range: David's Sling is the newest and the Patriot Syatem is older but still used by the US army.

Short Range : Iron Dome (developed by the US and Isreal) together

There are other closer range systems that I didn't read about.

Anyway I post this because I was worried/ concerned we were giving up too many of our missile defense systems by giving Ukraine Patriot missile battery's but we have a bunch of other systems we can. Use. The Patriot is still in use and will be used for along time. However these newer systems like Arrow 3 are on another level of long range missile defense. Arrow 3 can take out satellites in space.

Just fascinating stuff.

---

Confusing. We've only given Ukraine one Patriot battery out of the Army's 50 batteries (16 battalions). As for the three Israeli systems you mention, IIRC the US doesn't operate any of them or intend to, except for test items and the USMC buying some short-range Iron Dome systems.

To your concern, both the Army, Marines and Navy are currently well into modernizing their air defense systems to include a mix of modern radars, cannons, missiles, lasers and HPM to defeat aircraft, missiles and drones. Patriot is only one component of the Army's air defense mix and in addition to constantly upgrading its missiles over the years, it will also receive a modern GaN radar in the next year or two, essentially making it a whole new system.

im going to say it again...
russia has to block EVERY thrust from the ukraine army...

the ukraine army only needs to get lucky once to break the line. pic.twitter.com/rpeCJmmeYt

— david D. (@secretsqrl123) August 18, 2023

That's interesting. The article I read said Arrow was operational and first batteries delivered to the US in 2018.

74OA said:

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fullback44 said:

---

So I did some deep diving into missile Defense systems and found out some interesting information. The info came from todays Sitrep report. So there are mainly 3 levels of missile defense.

Long Range : Arrow 2 and Arrow 3
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3

Medium Range: David's Sling is the newest and the Patriot Syatem is older but still used by the US army.

Short Range : Iron Dome (developed by the US and Isreal) together

There are other closer range systems that I didn't read about.

Anyway I post this because I was worried/ concerned we were giving up too many of our missile defense systems by giving Ukraine Patriot missile battery's but we have a bunch of other systems we can. Use. The Patriot is still in use and will be used for along time. However these newer systems like Arrow 3 are on another level of long range missile defense. Arrow 3 can take out satellites in space.

Just fascinating stuff.

---

Confusing. We've only given Ukraine one Patriot battery out of the Army's 50 batteries (16 battalions). As for the Israeli systems you mention, IIRC the US doesn't operate any of them or intend to, except for the USMC buying a handful of short-range Iron Dome systems.

To your concern, both the Army, Marines and Navy are currently well into modernizing their air defense systems to include a mix of modern radars, cannons, missiles, lasers and HPM to defeat aircraft, missiles and drones. Patriot is only one component of the Army's air defense mix and in addition to constantly upgrading its missiles over the years, it will also receive a modern GaN radar in the next year or two, essentially making it a whole new system.

---

For Air Defense the US Army currently has two batteries operational of IFPIC (which is the Israeli manufactured Iron Dome)

and a third battery will be a Raytheon/Dianetics system based on the AIM9X.

I'm open to correction, but it'd be news to me.

PJYoung said:

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im going to say it again...
russia has to block EVERY thrust from the ukraine army...

the ukraine army only needs to get lucky once to break the line. pic.twitter.com/rpeCJmmeYt

— david D. (@secretsqrl123) August 18, 2023

---

Great map.

This may never happen unfortunately...but what WOULD be the results if the Ukes can break through towards Mariupol or Tokmak?!

Look at how many regiments and brigades would be caught to the western side of that penetration and cut off from Russia.

what would the Russian response be? to rely on ONE BRIDGE from Crimea to supply everyone to the west of the containment zone?

or would they retreat back into Kherson and try to bottleneck the Crimean approaches?

LMCane said:

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74OA said:

---

fullback44 said:

---

So I did some deep diving into missile Defense systems and found out some interesting information. The info came from todays Sitrep report. So there are mainly 3 levels of missile defense.

Long Range : Arrow 2 and Arrow 3
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3

Medium Range: David's Sling is the newest and the Patriot Syatem is older but still used by the US army.

Short Range : Iron Dome (developed by the US and Isreal) together

There are other closer range systems that I didn't read about.

Anyway I post this because I was worried/ concerned we were giving up too many of our missile defense systems by giving Ukraine Patriot missile battery's but we have a bunch of other systems we can. Use. The Patriot is still in use and will be used for along time. However these newer systems like Arrow 3 are on another level of long range missile defense. Arrow 3 can take out satellites in space.

Just fascinating stuff.

---

Confusing. We've only given Ukraine one Patriot battery out of the Army's 50 batteries (16 battalions). As for the Israeli systems you mention, IIRC the US doesn't operate any of them or intend to, except for the USMC buying a handful of short-range Iron Dome systems.

To your concern, both the Army, Marines and Navy are currently well into modernizing their air defense systems to include a mix of modern radars, cannons, missiles, lasers and HPM to defeat aircraft, missiles and drones. Patriot is only one component of the Army's air defense mix and in addition to constantly upgrading its missiles over the years, it will also receive a modern GaN radar in the next year or two, essentially making it a whole new system.

---

For Air Defense the US Army currently has two batteries operational of IFPIC (which is the Israeli manufactured Iron Dome)

and a third battery will be a Raytheon/Dianetics system based on the AIM9X.

---

The Army experimented with Iron Dome during the IFPC competition but ultimately rejected it in favor of the US-made Enduring Shield system by Dynetics. The Army may use its two Iron Dome test systems somewhere while Enduring Shield is being produced, but Iron Dome is not IFPC and there are no plans to buy more for operational use by the Army.

IFPC

LMCane said:

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PJYoung said:

---

im going to say it again...
russia has to block EVERY thrust from the ukraine army...

the ukraine army only needs to get lucky once to break the line. pic.twitter.com/rpeCJmmeYt

— david D. (@secretsqrl123) August 18, 2023

---

Great map.

This may never happen unfortunately...but what WOULD be the results if the Ukes can break through towards Mariupol or Tokmak?!

Look at how many regiments and brigades would be caught to the western side of that penetration and cut off from Russia.

what would the Russian response be? to rely on ONE BRIDGE from Crimea to supply everyone to the west of the containment zone?

or would they retreat back into Kherson and try to bottleneck the Crimean approaches?

---

Ocrs would be forced to put their aviation at severe risk.

I don't foresee any deep salients by Ukes. Puts them at too much risk, just like they have done to the Orcs multiple times over. Plus the mines just don't allow the speed. At the end of the beginning it was the Orcs gonna attrite the Ukes now I think its the other way around. As soon as Ukes can truly put the taking of Crimea on the table russia will call for cease fire to current lines.

Its going to be slow and steady until the HIMARS get another 25-35 KM closer at risk or over 45KM not so much at risk or the GLSDBs get delivered.

at current front GLSDBs have the capability to reach the entire northern coast of the Azov Sea or the southern edge of the eastern front to include all of northern Crimea. This will effectively stop any efficient resupply from either Crimea, the land bridge, or even from the Azov Sea.

Orcs still losing lots of ADA, EW, and STANO pieces across the front.

PJYoung said:

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Putin is just hoping to hold on until the US elections at this point.

---

I think an attritional war/prolonged struggle has been the Russian plan since June 2022 after the catastrophic attempted thunder run to Kiev, the aborted run at Odesa, and after Russia had consolidated its gains in the east.

Put up an insane amount of defenses knowing that any offensive action against a prepared defense without an effective Air Force assisting would be extremely hard to pull off (as the Russians had found out after the initial surprise of invasion was gone).

Russia will have to drag this conflict out even past the 2024 elections into 2025. At that point potentially a new administration will be in office and, seeing that the conflict has devolved into a bloody stalemate costing a trillion dollars, will cut Ukraine assistance and ask for both sides to come to terms.

Update on the ever-expanding land and sea drone campaign.

TARGETS

USAFE boss says it could take years for Ukrainian pilots to become combat proficient in the F-16.

REALITY

74OA said:

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USAFE boss says it could take years for Ukrainian pilots to become combat proficient in the F-16.

REALITY

---

I have a hard time believing it would take 4-5 years to learn for someone who is already a pilot. I hope they've already had guys training somewhere.

docb said:

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74OA said:

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USAFE boss says it could take years for Ukrainian pilots to become combat proficient in the F-16.

REALITY

---

I have a hard time believing it would take 4-5 years to learn for someone who is already a pilot. I hope they've already had guys training somewhere.

---

He's talking about young pilots with little experience, because that's what it takes to train a combat-ready flight lead in our Air Force. Mostly, though, I think he's just tempering expectations.

🔥BREAKING🔥

⚡️Soltsi military airfield (Tu-22m3 base location), Novgorod region of the Russian Federation — hit by an unknown UAV.

❗️REPORTED ABOUT 2 BURNING AIRCRAFTS pic.twitter.com/vBMvJDNwc5

— Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) August 19, 2023

/1. Targeting of the Russian Murom-P surveillance system which was placed by Russians on the balcony of a residential building. By the 126th brigade of Ukraine. Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Region. https://t.co/xJhEk2w8Ve pic.twitter.com/fAaStIestP

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 18, 2023

Russian Murom-P surveillance system https://t.co/pGH9avglgM

— MostlyNew (@NewMostly) August 18, 2023

Quote:

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At least 5 people killed, 37 wounded as result of Russian missile strike at the Theater building in Chernihiv

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/19-august-at-least-5-people-killed-37-wounded-as-result-of

Need more of this.

Location: east of Urozhaine (Урожайне), Donetsk Oblast at 47.73231, 36.85382 https://t.co/QpRh5ckGe1 @UAControlMap #geoconfirmed @GeoConfirmed
A Ukrainian drone of the Wild Hornets unit drops explosives at a remote mining vehicle stuck in a crater. pic.twitter.com/Yx8poUyggn

— blinzka (@blinzka) August 19, 2023

PJYoung said:

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🔥BREAKING🔥

⚡️Soltsi military airfield (Tu-22m3 base location), Novgorod region of the Russian Federation — hit by an unknown UAV.

❗️REPORTED ABOUT 2 BURNING AIRCRAFTS pic.twitter.com/vBMvJDNwc5

— Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) August 19, 2023

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This is over 600KM from the front and I hope a dozen of those damn bombers melted into the tarmac.

Wow. That's closer to Helsinki than it is to Moscow. Ukraine has introduced a new weapon.

Kakhovka reservoir.. turned into a totally different landscape. pic.twitter.com/fVIP2eE7e1

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 17, 2023

Quote:

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Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that the training of Ukrainian F-16 fighter pilots has already begun

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/19-august-defense-minister-oleksiy-reznikov-said-that-the

PJYoung said:

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🔥BREAKING🔥

⚡️Soltsi military airfield (Tu-22m3 base location), Novgorod region of the Russian Federation — hit by an unknown UAV.

❗️REPORTED ABOUT 2 BURNING AIRCRAFTS pic.twitter.com/vBMvJDNwc5

— Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) August 19, 2023

---

Great to read! Now they need to go Bear hunting

The race is on to beef up artillery round production in the US and Europe.

FACTORIES

JFABNRGR said:

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PJYoung said:

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🔥BREAKING🔥

⚡️Soltsi military airfield (Tu-22m3 base location), Novgorod region of the Russian Federation — hit by an unknown UAV.

❗️REPORTED ABOUT 2 BURNING AIRCRAFTS pic.twitter.com/vBMvJDNwc5

— Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) August 19, 2023

---

This is over 600KM from the front and I hope a dozen of those damn bombers melted into the tarmac.

---

If the Russians admit an aircraft was damaged, it’s likely multiple aircraft were at least damaged, possibly destroyed.

This was the case in Saki Airbase last year in Crimea when over half a dozen or so Su-24’s were destroyed and/or damaged https://t.co/eTz3vtK8Cb

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) August 19, 2023

How effing stupid do you have to be to be in a war for survival and post on effing Facebook that a drone conclave will be held in the city theater. death toll up to over 120. The Utes need training on OPSEC!!!!!!!!

True but the death toll is 7, injured 120.