***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,562,853 Views | 47754 Replies | Last: 13 hrs ago by 74OA
JFABNRGR
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knj2417 said:

Live map reporting :
Explosions reported at Kerch bridge


Looks like two hits and one might be on the main span RR side. I think the other big white plumes are screaming defenses by orcs.

https://reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/VmjZj36kLC
74OA
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74OA
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Waffledynamics
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Not too sure the Kerch Bridge was hit. Seems the missiles may have been shot down.
PJYoung
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Waffledynamics said:

Not too sure the Kerch Bridge was hit. Seems the missiles may have been shot down.
ABATTBQ11
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Waffledynamics said:

Not too sure the Kerch Bridge was hit. Seems the missiles may have been shot down.


Seems they may have been shot down by the bridge
Teslag
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Waffledynamics said:

Not too sure the Kerch Bridge was hit. Seems the missiles may have been shot down.


Seems they may have been shot down by the bridge


Looks like one span may be hanging down as well
ABATTBQ11
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Pics?
agent-maroon
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Hard to tell, but in the twitter pic a couple of posts up it looks like there might be a span hanging underneath to the left of center sloping down towards the center. But it could just as easily be smoke. Can't tell for sure.
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Gordo14
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Urozhaine looks to be falling under Ukraine control. Robotyne now has Ukrainians in the outskirts. Oryx now showing evidence of Russia losing 4x the vehicles Ukraine is - and it's especially lopsided in artillery. Ukraine successfully taking and holding territory at multiple points across the Dnieper. Kerch Strait bridge may have been successfully attacked again. Seeing evidence of an increase of Russian supplies getting blown up.

I think we're starting to see evidence of more than a few cracks forming.
AgLA06
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Gordo14 said:

Urozhaine looks to be falling under Ukraine control. Robotyne now has Ukrainians in the outskirts. Oryx now showing evidence of Russia losing 4x the vehicles Ukraine is - and it's especially lopsided in artillery. Ukraine successfully taking and holding territory at multiple points across the Dnieper. Kerch Strait bridge may have been successfully attacked again. Seeing evidence of an increase of Russian supplies getting blown up.

I think we're starting to see evidence of more than a few cracks forming.
While everyone wants to cast doubt, every day it seems they're tightening the screws just a little more and we're getting closer to a breaking point. It's all Russia can do to stop a breakout in the Zaph sector. An actual bridge head or two in the deep south launching an offensive would be devestating.
JFABNRGR
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No new Kerch bridge pics on reddit. I know its night there but this IMO is a good sign.
deddog
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shiftyandquick said:

Ukraine is paying the price for Biden administration slow-walking every single technology, for reasons I do not understand.

"Let's give them the tanks 1 year from now."
"Let's give them F16s 2 years from now."

IF you are going to give them at all, GIVE THEM NOW!
Because US interests diverge from Ukraine in this scenario. We would like to keep the war going for as long as possible, because that drains Russia.
Ukraine needs to finish the war as quickly as possible for obvious reasons.
ABATTBQ11
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I think even a quick win drains Russia because it destroys a lot of what they have. The more heavy equipment was a much larger commitment on our part and took longer to put together. We didn't want to just hand it over if it was going to get lost. Ukraine showed they were resilient and in it for the long haul, so we started making bigger commitments. The aircraft were a training issue. Our slots are currently slated for domestic pilots, and by law we can't bump them. With Europe taking on the training, now it makes sense for them to get the planes.
Bulldog73
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Google Maps says the bridge is closed. TASS said it was reopened hours ago. If it has been significantly damaged the Kherson front will be very significant soon.
javajaws
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deddog said:

shiftyandquick said:

Ukraine is paying the price for Biden administration slow-walking every single technology, for reasons I do not understand.

"Let's give them the tanks 1 year from now."
"Let's give them F16s 2 years from now."

IF you are going to give them at all, GIVE THEM NOW!
Because US interests diverge from Ukraine in this scenario. We would like to keep the war going for as long as possible, because that drains Russia.
Ukraine needs to finish the war as quickly as possible for obvious reasons.


Actually, no. Russia is drained enough already not to be a threat. The risk of this war continuing is that they actually learn from it and reform their military. That would be the worst thing to happen. Low odds still at this point of that happening but the longer this goes on the better the odds get (for them).
Waffledynamics
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PJYoung said:

Waffledynamics said:

Not too sure the Kerch Bridge was hit. Seems the missiles may have been shot down.

Not to be obstinate, but I think that might be white smoke from smoke generators, and the parts that appear black are shadows. The more I look at it, the less I'm convinced.

1. What would be burning?

2. Why isn't the Russian information space blowing up about the demise of the bridge?

3. Would we see clearer picture evidence tomorrow?

It seems like Ukraine is getting closer to further damaging the bridge, but I still am not quite convinced it happened today.
lb sand
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Agreed
Gordo14
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deddog said:

shiftyandquick said:

Ukraine is paying the price for Biden administration slow-walking every single technology, for reasons I do not understand.

"Let's give them the tanks 1 year from now."
"Let's give them F16s 2 years from now."

IF you are going to give them at all, GIVE THEM NOW!
Because US interests diverge from Ukraine in this scenario. We would like to keep the war going for as long as possible, because that drains Russia.
Ukraine needs to finish the war as quickly as possible for obvious reasons.


I disagree that it is in our interests for the war to last as long as possible. One thing to consider is that because we are not the country on the line, what we do will never be "fast enough". But we have a couple other things to consider. We need our military industry base to catch up. We have political considerations to manage before we blindly rush every piece of military equipment. And (I think this issue is eroding by the day) as a non combatant we needed to test the line. But the biggest factor is our response every step of the way has been proportional to our view of whether Ukraine can win. Think about how at the begining of the conflict we weren't sure if Ukraine had the central control or the identity to resist to Russia. Probably don't want to hand them a ton of the top of the line military equipment that Russia will just capture in that scenario. Every month or two since the start we have upped the ante because the odds of the war have moved away from Russian total victory. We've still given them what like $40B worth of support? Don't get me wrong, I am on the hawkish side of things and want us to keep the momentum going and accelerate what we are doing. But I would argue that I haven't been frustrated with us "slow playing" Ukraine until the last 2 months or so.

Now the problem is probably more the MAGA republicans because whatever we do needs some support from congress and let's be honest... The only people trying to withdraw support from Ukraine are pretty much Republicans (as sad as I find that to be). You don't have to take the opposite position from Biden on every subject to think Biden is a bad president. Maybe US global strategy should supercede politics...
74OA
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Latest bridge attack, Russian drone strikes, Taurus cruise missiles may be coming from Germany and other notes.

UPDATES
agsalaska
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Gordo14 said:

deddog said:

shiftyandquick said:

Ukraine is paying the price for Biden administration slow-walking every single technology, for reasons I do not understand.

"Let's give them the tanks 1 year from now."
"Let's give them F16s 2 years from now."

IF you are going to give them at all, GIVE THEM NOW!
Because US interests diverge from Ukraine in this scenario. We would like to keep the war going for as long as possible, because that drains Russia.
Ukraine needs to finish the war as quickly as possible for obvious reasons.


I disagree that it is in our interests for the war to last as long as possible. One thing to consider is that because we are not the country on the line, what we do will never be "fast enough". But we have a couple other things to consider. We need our military industry base to catch up. We have political considerations to manage before we blindly rush every piece of military equipment. And (I think this issue is eroding by the day) as a non combatant we needed to test the line. But the biggest factor is our response every step of the way has been proportional to our view of whether Ukraine can win. Think about how at the begining of the conflict we weren't sure if Ukraine had the central control or the identity to resist to Russia. Probably don't want to hand them a ton of the top of the line military equipment that Russia will just capture in that scenario. Every month or two since the start we have upped the ante because the odds of the war have moved away from Russian total victory. We've still given them what like $40B worth of support? Don't get me wrong, I am on the hawkish side of things and want us to keep the momentum going and accelerate what we are doing. But I would argue that I haven't been frustrated with us "slow playing" Ukraine until the last 2 months or so.

Now the problem is probably more the MAGA republicans because whatever we do needs some support from congress and let's be honest... The only people trying to withdraw support from Ukraine are pretty much Republicans (as sad as I find that to be). You don't have to take the opposite position from Biden on every subject to think Biden is a bad president. Maybe US global strategy should supercede politics...
I agree that it is not in our best interest. But our leaders don't see it that way. That has been clearly expressed by leaders of both political parties and the military multiple times.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



Waffledynamics
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Oh how I hope this is legitimate.

https://t.me/milinfolive/104972

Quote:

Today, the village of Urozhaynoye was abandoned in the Yuzhnodonetsk direction.

In recent weeks, fighters of the Kaskad OBTF and the 40th Marine Brigade have been stubbornly resisting the Armed Forces of Ukraine there. The assault groups of the 40th brigade repeatedly launched a counterattack and drove the enemy out of Urozhaynoye. Virtually every Marine who participated in the fighting was wounded.

The problem in holding the village is mostly due to the lack of desire to defend it on the part of the 36th army. The tank units of the 37th brigade refused to support the infantry in the battles for Urozhaynoye, arguing that the tanks were supposedly destroyed immediately after entering the firing position. The infantry of the brigade retreated from all the forest belts east of Harvest on the 10th. This was argued by the fact that they no longer have personnel for combat operations. In fact, half of the brigade is busy drinking alcohol in the rear, and the officers are not able to bring them to their senses. But for some reason, the 37th brigade continues to be thrown into the most important sectors of the front, which they successfully leave to the enemy.

Probably for Urozhaynoye they will again receive a decent amount of awards, as it was after the battles for Novodonetskoye. But the attack aircraft of the Marines from Storm Z, who voluntarily signed contracts and do not give up an inch of land without a fight, are not entitled to awards.

Military Informant
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Explosions were reported at 2 ammunition depot in Oleshky of Kherson region overnight


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/13-august-explosions-were-reported-at-2-ammunition-depot
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian Defence Forces continue offensive operations at Melitopol and Berdyansk directions, had partial success near Robotyne, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/13-august-ukrainian-defence-forces-continue-offensive-operations
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Fire reported at military base in Mariupol


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/13-august-fire-reported-at-military-base-in-mariupol-
PJYoung
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rollup: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1690731787465506816.html

Rossticus
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AgLA06
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Rossticus said:




He must be speaking from his boat on a river in Egypt.
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