JFABNRGR said:

---

Gilligan said:

---

They already have drone hunters that shoot what looks like a cast net.

---

And there are Falcons and Pigeons which are very efficient drone hunter killers. Met with a group 3 months back who was working to get DOD funding to go over and work the problem. I will see if I can find out if they are making any progress.

---

You'll also see more local jamming pods come into play and possibly jamming pods with another attack capability.

P.U.T.U said:

---

With this it looks like this will be a long, drawn out, artillery war. Russia is too ingrained for Ukraine to make a ground push right now

---

I think the reverse is also true, combined with Russia's lack of offensive weaponry and Ukraine armed to the teeth. I just don't see current lines shifting all that much going forward.

I think that's a fair assessment and it's certainly possible but everything has to go right for it to happen. Regardless of whether the Ukes gain a lot more or things remain as they are, they are in a far better position today than anyone expected in February of 2022.

Given that it's a pretty static situation and Russia's mines are proving to be very problematic, what do you think is a realistic way for Ukraine to break through?

(I find it interesting that in some ways this war shows the future - drone warfare, but in some ways everything is still controlled by old tech - mines)

SamHou said:

---

Given that it's a pretty static situation and Russia's mines are proving to be very problematic, what do you think is a realistic way for Ukraine to break through?

(I find it interesting that in some ways this war shows the future - drone warfare, but in some ways everything is still controlled by old tech - mines)

---

The mines are at least a part of why it is such a slow advance. I think the key is to get accurate artillery fire on the trenches using cluster munitions, suppress the orc drones to the degree you can, effectively counterbattery the orc artillery, and allow sapper troops and other clearing equipment to do their work unharried by the orcs. If you can get the orcs to abandon their positions because they are getting hammered by drones and artillery and not getting effective resupply, it makes it easier to take your time getting through the mine fields. All of that is easier said than done, but it sounds like the Ukrainians are working on it.

aezmvp said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

Gilligan said:

---

They already have drone hunters that shoot what looks like a cast net.

---

And there are Falcons and Pigeons which are very efficient drone hunter killers. Met with a group 3 months back who was working to get DOD funding to go over and work the problem. I will see if I can find out if they are making any progress.

---

You'll also see more local jamming pods come into play and possibly jamming pods with another attack capability.

---

Jamming would affect both sides drones. That's occurring now. Might be the same issue with falconry, but at least you could control the timing.

txags92 said:

---

Teslag said:

---

P.U.T.U said:

---

With this it looks like this will be a long, drawn out, artillery war. Russia is too ingrained for Ukraine to make a ground push right now

---

I think the reverse is also true, combined with Russia's lack of offensive weaponry and Ukraine armed to the teeth. I just don't see current lines shifting all that much going forward.

---

I think yall are both saying the same thing and you are wrong. The Ukrainians are cutting the orc supply lines to the southern portion of the occupied territory one by one. They are also slowly making progress toward Tokmak. If they can occupy/cutoff that rail junction at Tokmak and keep the Kerch Bridge damaged, the orcs will have no way to resupply Crimea and the area west of Tokmak and the conditions will be primed to rout the troops there as they run out of supplies and ammunition. This has been a slow process, but the conditions necessary for Ukrainian success in the south are slowly developing.

---

I now honestly think of Crimea as essentially being under siege and that is where the strategic advantage western weapons in Uke hands will make the biggest difference. The critical point being of course the number available. There is no denying the effectiveness of the weapons themselves but rather enough can be leveraged in a short enough time span to sway the outcome in a decisive manner.

The problem for the instant gratification minds west is that sieges are long, drawn out affairs of seemingly little gain for most of it. History tells us though that often when a collapse happens it will be drastic and swift. A shatter more than break. Will that happen here? I have no idea. I just know the Ukes need to keep up the strategic pressure of long range precision fires because mobility, the most important hallmark of modern warfare, is denied them.

SamHou said:

---

Given that it's a pretty static situation and Russia's mines are proving to be very problematic, what do you think is a realistic way for Ukraine to break through?

---

A B-52 Arc light.

I think you're essentially correct. The Ukes will need to retake Tokmak and then go out a 30 km towards Melitipol to really put those lines under fire control. Hitting it with long range MLRS is one thing but actual artillery fire is really what we're talking about here. That's going to be a bit. Probably late winter or spring, maybe. You're talking about 4 defensive lines (currently) and multiple rivers and a lot of terrain. If they can continue to hit and damage those bridges from Crimea going north as well as hit the the M-4 and associated rail lines. There are a TON of bridges that are vulnerable that within Storm Strike range but personally I'd want to start hitting them and then hitting their repair troops/equipment.

I don't see any country giving Ukraine 30 B-52 or similar aircraft.

It seems like Russia's only advances come using meat grinder tactics which is not a viable long term solution. Lots of artillery and money going back and forth

It was a joke.

Doesn't mean that's exactly what is needed.

P.U.T.U said:

---

I don't see any country giving Ukraine 30 B-52 or similar aircraft.

It seems like Russia's only advances come using meat grinder tactics which is not a viable long term solution. Lots of artillery and money going back and forth

---

Russia seems to have endless supplies of manpower coming out of prisons. At some point the manpower drain is going to severely impact the basic functioning of their industrial and military complex.

First batch of M1 tanks approved for shipment, Russia accused of using chemical weapons, assassination plot against Zelensky, UGV to evacuate casualties and other notes.

Today's SITREP.

Related story on why the M1's cannon round is so effective.

URANIUM

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 07 August 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/9fD0Axaaaf

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/ny7zQjiuMP

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 7, 2023

Seeing that Turkey had a bombing and several officials are saying it was Russia using proxies. Turkey was rumored to be helping Ukraine getting supplies closer on the coast so it may be in retaliation

It would be a shame if Russia destroyed any relationship with Turkey.

txags92 said:

---

It isnt endless if they are raising the conscript age to 65. They dont have as much manpower on tap as you think without tipping off moscow and st pete that things are not going to plan.

---

Russia had insufficient manpower to service its industry and agriculture even before the war started. With millions fleeing, accelerated conscription and hundreds of thousands of combat casualties, the Kremlin is now caught in a vice between feeding the fight and keeping its economy from collapsing. The raw manpower to do either is there, but not for both.

Ukraine has a similar problem, but it is being kept afloat by money and other assistance from the West, so it can more easily devote manpower to the war that would otherwise be needed for its economy.

DEMOGRAPHICS

74OA said:

---

txags92 said:

---

It isnt endless if they are raising the conscript age to 65. They dont have as much manpower on tap as you think without tipping off moscow and st pete that things are not going to plan.

---

Russia had insufficient manpower to service its industry and agriculture even before the war started. With millions fleeing, accelerated conscription and hundreds of thousands of combat casualties, the Kremlin is now caught in a vice between feeding the fight and keeping its economy from collapsing. The raw manpower to do either is there, but not for both.

---

True. One of their big problems is that they have to try to insulate their major population centers in Moscow and St Petersburg from the effects of the war. It was mothers there who raised hell and eventually forced them to pull out of Afghanistan. As long as the thousands dying are coming from Chechnya or Dagestan or some other far flung dirt poor village, they won't be under any real pressure to change course. But if the effects of the war come back to mothers and families in Moscow and St Petersburg, they will have real trouble keeping a lid on the unrest.

Among other things, cluster bombs are clearing brush, which Russians use to hide their positions. They've allowed Ukrainians to retake previously inaccessible terrain. https://t.co/CoYpUOl9zV pic.twitter.com/EARveSIZnl

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) August 8, 2023

PJYoung said:

---

BREAKING: Zelensky warns that Russia will have "zero ships" by the end of the war if it continues attacking Ukraine from the Black Sea

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) August 8, 2023

---

Wonder if they can setup a few of those drones to drop depth charges or homing torpedos in the water. I am assuming that the subs launching the cruise missiles are doing so from periscope depth and not at the surface. But it would be nice to hit them when they sortie outside the protections at Sevastopol to launch. I am assuming our aerial surveillance has a very good idea of the general area they are launching from and could help the Ukrainians position their drones appropriately.

Do they have a drone big enough to carry that kind of payload?

PJYoung said:

---

10thYrSr said:

---

smstork1007 said:

---

I clearly stated that I DID NOT KNOW if russia was having problems fielding Helicopter pilots or not. But I stand by what I said, your article does NOTHING to prove anything, other than 4 months ago they had pilots flying JET aircraft near the US border. And just so we are clear on this point, I doubt very seriously Russia has any pilots that fly both, hell I doubt we have many if any. Hope that helps to explain to why your article in this discussion was worthless.

---

KA-52 loss is mentioned AFTER the pilot loss claims in the tweet. It didn't state there was a loss in KA-52 pilots.

ETA: the post DID cite a KA-52 shoot down, which the tweet was referencing. My apologies and I was wrong in this regard.

---

Yeah we were 100% talking about KA-52 pilots.

The Russians have lost over 25% of their KA-52s. Just a horrific # for them.

Who knows what % of the remaining choppers can actually fly at this point. I do believe that they are in serious danger of not having enough KA-52 pilots to fly whatever equipment they have left considering the instructors that they have lost. The good news for Ukraine is both numbers are slowly resolving towards zero.

---

To take that further. I sawy this article this morning.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20317

Despite being billed by the Kremlin as the world's best helicopter gunship, Russia may have just lost its 40th Ka-52 Alligator.

"Now less-skilled crews are easy targets for ever bolder Ukrainian air defenders… The loss of experienced crews might sting more than the airframe write-offs do. It could take years for the air force to train good replacements for all the Ka-52 fliers who've died in Ukraine."

B-1 83 said:

---

Do they have a drone big enough to carry that kind of payload?

---

I think it would be pretty awesome to build one around a torpedo. Send it a fleet of them out to pre-determined locations. Sit and charge via solar power. Launch the torpedo at a naval ship that get's close enough. charge and return to base.

txags92 said:

---

74OA said:

---

txags92 said:

---

It isnt endless if they are raising the conscript age to 65. They dont have as much manpower on tap as you think without tipping off moscow and st pete that things are not going to plan.

---

Russia had insufficient manpower to service its industry and agriculture even before the war started. With millions fleeing, accelerated conscription and hundreds of thousands of combat casualties, the Kremlin is now caught in a vice between feeding the fight and keeping its economy from collapsing. The raw manpower to do either is there, but not for both.

---

True. One of their big problems is that they have to try to insulate their major population centers in Moscow and St Petersburg from the effects of the war. It was mothers there who raised hell and eventually forced them to pull out of Afghanistan. As long as the thousands dying are coming from Chechnya or Dagestan or some other far flung dirt poor village, they won't be under any real pressure to change course. But if the effects of the war come back to mothers and families in Moscow and St Petersburg, they will have real trouble keeping a lid on the unrest.

---

I'm not so sure about that. I've posted this before, but it bears reposting:



The guy who does this channel is apparently the son of a Soviet aviator and pretty in tune with Russian culture. He makes a very good point at the end about how the soviets, and particularly Russians, capitalized on the Cargo 200 designation to numb the populace to the deaths of soldiers in the future. Seems like it is paying off to them now.

PJYoung said:

---

BREAKING: Zelensky warns that Russia will have "zero ships" by the end of the war if it continues attacking Ukraine from the Black Sea

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) August 8, 2023

---

Erdogan is salivating at being THE power in the Black Sea.

Big fish in a small pond.

Was clearly a joke to me …

B-1 83 said:

---

Do they have a drone big enough to carry that kind of payload?

---

I was referring to their naval drones they are using to attack shipping, not the flying kind.

txags92 said:

---

B-1 83 said:

---

Do they have a drone big enough to carry that kind of payload?

---

I was referring to their naval drones they are using to attack shipping, not the flying kind.

---

The "drop" depth charges or homing torpedoes threw me. My bad.

AgLA06 said:

---

B-1 83 said:

---

Do they have a drone big enough to carry that kind of payload?

---

I think it would be pretty awesome to build one around a torpedo. Send it a fleet of them out to pre-determined locations. Sit and charge via solar power. Launch the torpedo at a naval ship that get's close enough. charge and return to base.

---

I have looked at the currents in the Black Sea occasionally over the last year. Its not uncommon for currents to run from Ukraine to Crimea. I would not be surprised if they simply float these in sleep mode, tracking them with any cheap GPS tracker, into target areas, and awake them for attack. Also no wake helping make them look like a piece of debris settled in the water a bit with ballast.

They are certainly getting some of our intelligence to coordinate resulting in a very efficient attack.

Luck = Preparation meeting opportunity.

I think they could easily rig a torpedo but not sure USA is on board with them sinking a sub just yet but I am sure as hell all for it.

At the moment with a couple of course corrections you could damn near float one to the Kerch Bridge right now.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=36.48,46.97,4024

Quote:

---

I think they could easily rig a torpedo but not sure USA is on board with them sinking a sub just yet but I am sure as hell all for it.

---

Why not?

RogerEnright said:

---

Quote:

---

I think they could easily rig a torpedo but not sure USA is on board with them sinking a sub just yet but I am sure as hell all for it.

---

Why not?

---

Purely my unqualified opinion but given the slow rolling of weapon system deliveries to date and imo what has always been the pride of russia in their sub fleet, in some sort of escalation fear.