***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,563,534 Views | 47756 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by LMCane
Eliminatus
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Wild. Definitely a 125mm HEAT round. Nice reminder to me that they are shot from smoothbores. Was so confused for a second by the non scored expansion bands on it until I remembered that.

ETA: ah. Didn't see they identified it above.
74OA
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More on the tanker strike and other miscellaneous updates.

Today's SITREP.
Waffledynamics
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Per LiveUAMap, Ukraine's air defense has been engaging cruise missiles and Shahed drones multiple times in the last 24 hours or so, aimed at the central regions.
74OA
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Next-level trolling by Lithuania.

Gordo14
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Looks like Ukraine knocked out the two road bridges from Crimea to Ukraine. They knocked out the rail bridge a week or so ago.
2wealfth Man
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Gordo14 said:

Looks like Ukraine knocked out the two road bridges from Crimea to Ukraine. They knocked out the rail bridge a week or so ago.
and their sea drones are making naval operations and re-supply by ship a risky adventure
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Missile strikes reported at Chonhar bridges and bridge in Henichesk


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/6-august-missile-strikes-reported-at-chonhar-bridges-and
aezmvp
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We are not there yet. The attack on the Sig is definitely an escalation along with the naval combat warning at the Russian ports, but you'll have to see some more ships actually sunk by USV to make that point. I don't believe that the Russians have a pipeline large enough to supply Crimea so hitting tankers would be a pretty effective strategy but the retaliation from Russia is likely to be pretty bad at the ports. Worth it? Probably.
RogerEnright
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aezmvp said:

We are not there yet. The attack on the Sig is definitely an escalation along with the naval combat warning at the Russian ports, but you'll have to see some more ships actually sunk by USV to make that point. I don't believe that the Russians have a pipeline large enough to supply Crimea so hitting tankers would be a pretty effective strategy but the retaliation from Russia is likely to be pretty bad at the ports. Worth it? Probably.
With all due respect, you cannot win a war thinking about a mythical retaliation calculation.

Russia is going to expend ever missile / drone it can get its hands on to win this war regardless of Ukraine's tactics. Lobbing them at apartments or at grain depots is just for narrative. It may even save UKR lives to have them send them at docks and silos rather than electricity infrastructure or apt buildings (albeit the rest of the world may be hungry).

I don't' think you were implying nukes, other than escalating to that point, UKR can do anything that isn't a war crime. If UKR believes that its children will be abducted and its male population will be conscripted and killed in Russia's next war, you have to accept that Russia is going to retaliate. I UKR and Poland know this better than the West.
74OA
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Dozens of Russian drones and missiles launched against Ukraine and other notes.

UPDATES
Jetpilot86
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Uh, why isn't this considered the Uke retaliation????
lb3
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Jetpilot86 said:

Uh, why isn't this considered the Uke retaliation????
Exactly. Russia stated their intention to treat all Ukrainian bound ships as if they were weapon transports. Ukraine responded by treating Russian ships similarly.
74OA
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Jetpilot86 said:

Uh, why isn't this considered the Uke retaliation????
Exactly.

Anything Ukraine does is retaliation for being invaded and bombarded nonstop by the Russians.

It's hypocrisy for Putin to throw a hissy fit whenever Kiev finds a new way to fight back.

Russia claiming "retaliation" is a bad joke.
Jetpilot86
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Then why care what the escalation from Rus is? What they gonna do? Bomb cities?
aezmvp
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Jetpilot86 said:

Uh, why isn't this considered the Uke retaliation????
Any time you launch a new vector or attack something different its an escalation. See hitting neutral flagged shipping around Brittain with Uboats. Or chemical warfare. Hitting commercial shipping is absolutely a response, and yes it is proportional, to hitting the grain elevators and ports. But that doesn't mean that it isn't a new escalation that Russia can/will use to justify something else. My guess is more attacks on port facilities in or around the Odessa area or any shipping inside Uke waters.

Again I'm not arguing that any response that the Ukes have in their arsenal short of ABC warfare isn't justified. The many, many Russian atrocities justify just about any level of of counteraction. But that doesn't mean that adding a new dimension isn't an escalation. Its a subtle differentation and I understand that but a valid point nonetheless.
MouthBQ98
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Russia has attacked numerous Ukrainian civilian commercial assets, infrastructure, transportation and logistics facilities and sunk many vessels.

They haven't attacked third party civilian shipping yet, though I believe 1 or 2 have hit mines.

This was a Russian flagged vessel. It was attacked with a drone versus an anti ship missile but it's not any different than the Ukrainian flagged vessels that have been sunk.

In this case it is fair to simply call this the development of a means of retaliation, versus an escalation to a new class of targets.
AlaskanAg99
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A real leader would tell the Turks were sending in a mine sweeper and commercial grain ships on a humanitarian mussion. An attack on any is a declaration of war w/ NATO.

Throw the gauntlet down.
aTm '99
lb3
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AlaskanAg99 said:

A real leader would tell the Turks were sending in a mine sweeper and commercial grain ships on a humanitarian mussion. An attack on any is a declaration of war w/ NATO.

Throw the gauntlet down.
What's the functional deference between that and sailing commercial grain ships to Ukraine via the territorial waters of 3 NATO countries (Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania) as is currently being done?
74OA
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French SCALP-EG cruise missile now officially in use. It's essentially the same as the British Storm Shadow and serves to deepen the inventory Ukraine can draw from as the Brits don't have very many.

"SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow's BROACH two-stage warhead is capable of penetrating fortified targets, and it can be used against bridges especially well. The weapon's fuzing can be set to a desired effect, but one tactic includes hitting a bridge deck at a shallow angle parallel to its direction, breaking through the deck, then striking the pylon below. Simply cratering the bridge deck is another less complex and permanent option."

MISSILE
aezmvp
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Again, my argument is whether the Russians see it as an escalation which from the missile strike yesterday from 15 bombers over the Caspian, largest in months and months, is a pretty good bet. At no point do I think the Uke response is unjustified. Hell I hope they sink the ferries, as many tankers as they can get and by doing so force the Russian Navy to sortie and expose more of their ships. Forcing them to put their Navy in harms way far from the torpedo nets and defenses would be great. Love to see them lose a few of their more recent ships like the Grigorovich class frigates or the Buyan corvettes. Attacking shipping is a great way to do that. The Russians traditionally have not been great at night helo ops so they would most likely be forced to drastically curtail or cordon shipping or put it into convoys which works against subs but might not against USVs.
lb3
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If the Russians had good intelligence on strategic Ukranian military targets they would already be hitting them. The Russian missile strikes were a domestic face saving measure. It was not an escalatory action.
AgLA06
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No one cares if a country that's invaded a sovereign nation has their feelings hurt. You can't out escalate savages purposely hitting civilian buildings and hospitals. Give it a rest.
docb
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I don't really care what Ukraine targets. They didn't start this. All Russia has to do is leave. Heck we bombed the **** out of entire cities in WW2.
agent-maroon
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Quote:

No one cares if a country that's invaded a sovereign nation has their feelings hurt.
I care. I hope the orcs cry about the retaliation all the way to Moscow or their grave. Either destination works for me.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Waffledynamics
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Interesting note that Russia had already repaired the Chongar bridge from the last hit, and then it just got broken again with the latest missile attack. Some of the pictures in the early part of this video look promising. Denys goes over why this is really bad for Russian logistics in more detail than I realized.
lb3
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Burrus86
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When sneaky tactical ops backfires!
javajaws
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LOL - if any Russian officer had ideas of taking the initiative to actually do something that should put a bullet in that idea pretty quick!
PJYoung
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It says a lot that I'm not sure that's even in the top 20 of Russian disasters this war.
SmallBusiness
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Says Turkey may be transporting the naval drones closer to Russian targets.
SouthTex99
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txags92
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SmallBusiness said:



Says Turkey may be transporting the naval drones closer to Russian targets.


That seems like it could be very problematic for Turkey to have go public if it is true.
docb
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He always has an interesting perspective.
bonfarr
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lb3 said:




Isn't dressing in the opposing side's uniform some kind of breach of laws of warfare? Perfidy I think they call it. So if the Ukes capture Russians wearing their uniforms they can kill them on sight rather than take as POWs right?
74OA
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China says it will be "impartial" about Ukraine, peace talks in Saudi a slap to Putin and other miscellaneous notes.

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