If the US and the EU actually performed a Naval blockade of all RU ports...Russia would collapse. We have the warships, Russia does not. So lets not pretend that we're doing all we can to choke Russia off. Land transport is much more expensive and slow....and there are vast areas we cannot cover....but water is cheaper and way way way more efficient.

The war against Russia is barely a footnote in the budget.

As far as China and Taiwan....that's a completely different scenario that doesn't involve land/army.

sounds a bit over the top but hopefully the start of things to come:

Ukraine smashes through Russian defence in Bakhmut and sends Putin's forces fleeing


Ukraine has entered the village of Andriivka south of Bakhmut amid heavy fighting as Kyiv's forces try to capitalize on their momentum as they attempt to surround the war-torn city.
By MATTHEW DOOLEY 13:33, Wed, Jul 26, 2023

Ukraine has made a huge breakthrough south of Bakhmut with reports that Russian forces in the area have been sent fleeing in retreat. The news comes as Russian sources claim a massive Ukrainian offensive on the country's southern front.

Kyiv's troops entered the destroyed village of Andriivka south of Bakhmut yesterday, according to Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko, but heavy fighting continued.

"The advance and liberation of the settlement took place, but now the fighting continues both within and outside the settlement," he said.

Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that Russian soldiers in the area were retreating but Kyrylenko warned that the village had become "scorched earth" making it impossible for civilians to return.

President Zelensky also commented on reports after being updated on the situation by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

"We believe in our guys. We continue to work," he posted on Telegram.

READ MORE: Putin send criminals to Ukraine instead of prison in desperate bid for troops [LATEST]

Bakhmut and the surrounding villages have been largely destroyed in the fighting.

Bakhmut and the surrounding villages have been largely destroyed in the fighting. (Image: GETTY)
Reports have emerged that Ukrainian forces have also seized the town of Klishchiivka south of Bakhmut. With both villages captured Kyiv's forces would be in a position to cut Russia's southern supply lines to the city.

There have also been reports of a massive Ukrainian offensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia region where the fighting has been in a deadlock for some time.

To the south of the city of Orikhiv, Ukrainian forces appeared to building on their gains. Russian sources claimed Kyiv was launching a massive offensive in the area.

"Zaporizhzhia front - the second wave of the [Ukraine's] counteroffensive has begun," a member of the Russian-installed Zaporizhzhia military-civilian administration Vladimir Rogov wrote on Telegram Wednesday.

Gordo14 said:

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Every day the Russian milbloggers seem more comcerned about Ukrainian breakthrough in the South.

More doom and gloom from Russian sources on the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive - once again mentioning the use of GMLRS as precision counter-battery fire to snipe individual Russian artillery pieces. https://t.co/pj5rpfEjxa

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) July 26, 2023

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sounds like Putin's master military and political strategy is progressing very well!!

AlaskanAg99 said:

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If the US and the EU actually performed a Naval blockade of all RU ports...Russia would collapse. We have the warships, Russia does not. So lets not pretend that we're doing all we can to choke Russia off. Land transport is much more expensive and slow....and there are vast areas we cannot cover....but water is cheaper and way way way more efficient.

The war against Russia is barely a footnote in the budget.

As far as China and Taiwan....that's a completely different scenario that doesn't involve land/army.

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Agreed but I don't know anyone who is claiming we are doing "everything" we can..

in fact, most rational people are stating we are ABSOLUTELY NOT doing everything we can. we aren't sending our longest range attack munitions, we aren't sending our best aircraft, we aren't sending our best tanks, we aren't sending our best Air Defense systems.

if anything, most of the West are sending their older equipment and replacing their own stores with new equipment

Well, if we did that would escalate immensely.

The problem for Russia is they're already all in and they're barely holding on. Their ability to open multiple fronts is extremely limited.

At this point all US and EU services should be pumping arms and Intel to weak RU areas to widen the fronts and divert RU attention. Stretch them thin.

TXAggie2011 said:

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Quote:

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Every day the Russian milbloggers seem more comcerned about Ukrainian breakthrough in the South.

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There is a tendency for some of those Russian milbloggers to be fatalistic given how jaded they've become over the past year of losses and stalemate. So, while it is nice to hear, folks do have to remember where they are emotionally.

That said, I feel it is inevitable Ukraine will find their breakthrough. The screws are tightening; the interdictions are becoming more frequent, larger, and deeper behind Russian lines.

I'm personally worried less about Ukraine not finding a breakthrough, but what will happen after that. There will be a temptation, one imagines, for those forces which find the breakthrough to press deeper and deeper into occupied territory. To state the obvious, that leaves them vulnerable to encirclement or to just get pounded into oblivion, of course. I certainly have a feeling Ukraine could really concentrate power and find a breakthrough in the next couple of weeks but I'm not sure a horizontally "thin" incursion is sustainable.

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what is amazing is that Ukraine and Russia have been famous for encirclement battles for centuries due to the vast open and flat spaces..

and yet there has not really been an encirclement battle in 515 days of combat (except for Azov in Mariupol) if the Ukes can finally penetrate the main line of defense, they should not attempt to just drive forward as far as possible but to encircle a few regiments of Russky defenders.

thus, that leverages their superior mobility and would force the Russians to most likely flee in disorder or risk humiliating captures in large numbers.

we can see the Ukes trying to do this north and south of Bakhmut from Andriivka, but they really have not been able to conduct a pincer flank movement in the south yet.

agent-maroon said:

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No humanity. They're orcs in every sense of the word.

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so many of the Ruskkies in the conscripted army are literally convicted prisoners and the most uneducated from the Steppes or the far flung Asian parts of Russia.

just look at how they LIVE in their trenches!!

it's filthy and garbage is everywhere.

many of them live like they did 100 years ago.

I'd argue that the initial Russian invasion was a failed attempt at grand encirclement from the north, east and south.

74OA said:

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I'd argue that the initial Russian invasion was a failed attempt at encirclement from the north, east and south.

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Yes that is a good point. the Russkies did attempt to pin the Uke forces along the Dnipro but it didn't work.

More so since the initial few weeks, that it has settled into attritional warfare most of the last year.

on a front line of nearly 900 miles, you would think there would be countless numbers of pincer attacks (as there were in Ukraine in 1944 which demolished entire Nazi divisions)

I have to wonder if the reserve and newly constituted Russian military units brought up to replace Wagner in the east are not fragile and highly vulnerable to collapse if pressed hard like Ukraine seems to be doing. They might really break there, and one has to think they've recently been on the offensive there and may not have focused on defense in depth behind the front.

Yep. No competent military has their best training pilots and unit commanders flying sorties instead of training new recruits or managing large units. Unless there aren't enough Alligators left to train new troops for.

Watching a couple of Russian supporters try to argue otherwise is quite entertaining.

How difficult would it be to pair a Mk 48 torpedo with one of the naval drones? If they could get within 3 miles and vectored at the target ship could the active seeker find the surface vessel - or does it require a data feed/target input from the helicopter or sub it's launched from?

If possible they could terrorize the Russians fleet in the Black Sea, and with a little help, the Baltic.

Dirt 05 said:

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How difficult would it be to pair a Mk 48 torpedo with one of the naval drones? If they could get within 3 miles and vectored at the target ship could the active seeker find the surface vessel - or does it require a data feed/target input from the helicopter or sub it's launched from?

If possible they could terrorize the Russians fleet in the Black Sea, and with a little help, the Baltic.

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Might be a big ask to get a Mk48 fitted to even a floating drone. A single Mk48 weighs nearly 3500 pounds by itself without any of the equipment necessary to launch it. Maybe slinging it underneath the drone could work? Might be better to try to take several Mk46s instead (about 500# each) fire a spread of 3-4 since they have a much smaller warhead. IIRC, both versions have the ability to be programmed to travel a certain distance/time and then turn on their seeker head to look for a target.

Dirt 05 said:

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How difficult would it be to pair a Mk 48 torpedo with one of the naval drones? If they could get within 3 miles and vectored at the target ship could the active seeker find the surface vessel - or does it require a data feed/target input from the helicopter or sub it's launched from?

If possible they could terrorize the Russians fleet in the Black Sea, and with a little help, the Baltic.

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I'd imagine they'd have to use them as floating interdiction to make that work. They should have sub nets around the port otherwise.

They could send 50 of them out into the black sea in a dispersed pattern with solar panels to keep them charged and wait for a Russian ship to get in range and use it as a mother ship to launch the torpedo.

AgLA06 said:

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Dirt 05 said:

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How difficult would it be to pair a Mk 48 torpedo with one of the naval drones? If they could get within 3 miles and vectored at the target ship could the active seeker find the surface vessel - or does it require a data feed/target input from the helicopter or sub it's launched from?

If possible they could terrorize the Russians fleet in the Black Sea, and with a little help, the Baltic.

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I'd imagine they'd have to use them as floating interdiction to make that work. They should have sub nets around the port otherwise.

They could send 50 of them out into the black sea in a dispersed pattern with solar panels to keep them charged and wait for a Russian ship to get in range and use it as a mother ship to launch the torpedo.

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It'd be better to run them against the Russian radar/navy pickets when the 16s get in. There are at least 3 rings that have been confirmed of anti-sub/torpedo nets around Sevastopol.

Another report of Ukrainian progress against the southeast portion of Russia's defensive line.

Zaporizhzhia

10thYrSr said:

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PJYoung said:

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Stories have been coming oiut for a few weeks about the Russians having ot use instrcutors to fly missions due to a pilot shortage. This event tends to confirm that. There has also been a high rate of KA52s lost in combat as Russian tried to get as many as possible in air in the… https://t.co/quonOfWARz

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) July 26, 2023

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So Ukraine has a ton of pilots ready to fly f-16's but Russia is running short of pilots?

From a tactical viewpoint, does this pass the smell test?

A greater population who hasn't exerted air control over an inferior population is having trouble finding pilots?

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who is saying there are "tons" of Uke pilots ready to fly F-16s? give me a number? That's the point, there isn't going be squadrons of Uke F-16 flying.

I think at best they might have enough F-16s to shoot down some of the cruise missiles but nobody is expecting Uke F-16s to gain air superiority over the battlefield

10thYrSr said:

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PJYoung said:

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Stories have been coming oiut for a few weeks about the Russians having ot use instrcutors to fly missions due to a pilot shortage. This event tends to confirm that. There has also been a high rate of KA52s lost in combat as Russian tried to get as many as possible in air in the… https://t.co/quonOfWARz

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) July 26, 2023

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So Ukraine has a ton of pilots ready to fly f-16's but Russia is running short of pilots?

From a tactical viewpoint, does this pass the smell test?

A greater population who hasn't exerted air control over an inferior population is having trouble finding pilots?

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No one said there were tons.

Population size is somewhat irrelevant. Your thought process assumes an equally proportionate distribution of pilots between both and equally proportionate losses.

Look at WWII. The Pacific and Europe were both drains on the Allies' proficient and experienced pilot pool, but both Germany and Japan ended up in a situation where they were seriously short on capable pilots. Combined, the US and GB had populations only about 35% larger than Germany and Japan. Japan lost a disproportionate number of pilots on aircraft carriers due to several instances of poor design and damage control, as well as in dogfights once the zero's weaknesses were discovered and it was outclassed. Germany lost a disproportionate number of pilots in the Battle of Britain. TLDR, the eventual disparity had little to do with population and more to do with disproportionate loss ratios.

Also, Russia has not exerted air control because the airspace is too contested and protected by SAM's. It would be a costly suicide. It's not that they've been lackadaisical about their air power, it's that it is not effective enough to be survivable.


ETA It's also worth noting that Russia's fighter training program has gone downhill in the last 30 years. The 1521st AB based in Turkmenistan at Maryy-1 basically disintegrated with the end of the USSR, and that was effectively Russia's Top Gun school and the program responsible for ensuring Russian pilot proficiency and quality.

AgLA06 said:

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I haven't seen anywhere they have committed the last of their reserves. The opposite. They finally committed their first unit of reserves. It's why it was noteworthy.

Your Russian bloggers really suck at their job.

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Because it's Russian fan fiction

UK says Russia may attempt a complete naval blockade of Ukraine, which would impinge on other nation's territorial waters.

WARNING

LMCane said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Every day the Russian milbloggers seem more comcerned about Ukrainian breakthrough in the South.

More doom and gloom from Russian sources on the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive - once again mentioning the use of GMLRS as precision counter-battery fire to snipe individual Russian artillery pieces. https://t.co/pj5rpfEjxa

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) July 26, 2023

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sounds like Putin's master military and political strategy is progress

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rgag12 said:

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With this weeks development that Ukraine is committing its last reserves to the offensive, I think it's interesting to look forward to the fall and winter.

Ukraine has committed the bulk of its forces to the summer offensive that looks like it will gain minimal to negligible territory depending on the axis you're looking at. Russia, for the most part, has kept its reserves staggered behind the front lines and hasn't committed them. Will they themselves go for a counter-attack in the fall or winter? Or are they content on the stalemate and to let Ukraine keep bashing their heads against mine fields? My opinion is of the latter since Russia seems to be short on artillery ammunition.

Either way, this war has devolved into a cripple fight and I don't expect much territory to change hands for years.

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Perhaps it is all irrelevant. It only matters for overall body count and 'momentum' purposes.

This is only my opinion.



There are currently UKR services people all over Europe and in the US continually getting trained. So perhaps they should commit the current reserves before "mud' happens and everything gets bogged down.

Strategic drivers:

A. Russia will fight pretty hard to keep Crimea for strategic purposes in the Black Sea. The rest is only for imperial culture / preferences (I don't buy the silly Peter Zeihan defensive or demographic arguments).

B. Without a security guarantee from the US (call it NATO or other), UKR has to keep fighting. They cannot pause with a peace treaty, or Russia has time to regroup. Also, they really want Crimea for obvious naval security.

C. Poland (other Eastern Europe) cannot afford for UKR to quit. Poland will do anything it can to keep UKR fighting. If Kyiv falls, the green men, Russian propaganda / external influence machines will be focused on Polish politics. If Russia keeps part of UKR, there is good chance that Russian propaganda / external political machine expend additional energy on Kyiv and Poland benefits.


Possible near and long term outcomes:

1. UKR offensive works and cuts off Crimea
- This could destabilize Russia as they have to keep pouring resources into defending Crimea. There is too much strategic value to their "warm water port".


2. Stalemate with Germany and the US getting bored and leaving Eastern Europe to fend for itself.
- Russia wins, perhaps there is a peace treaty, but eventually there will be more fighting.
- Or UKR continues to fight with reduced resources. Every dollar Poland spends supporting UKR makes Poland directly safer.

3. Stalemate with Germany and the US continuing to supply the war efforts. This could still slowly destabilize Russia, but there will be a significant toll on UKR as well. This is harder to predict, but UKR seems up for that long term fight (see my comment above about continued training).

If #2 happens, we loose credibility with China and Russia in future proxy conflicts.
#1 or #3 could result in a implosion of the Russian government. This is why it may be irrelevant from a long term perspective.

Again, this is just my opinion.

txags92 said:

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This seems like an escalation that Putin has not thought through very well. It raises the very significant possibility of direct conflict between the orcs and NATO country flagged ships, but it also forms a terrific excuse to hand over much more capable anti-ship weapons to the Ukrainians to be used against the Black Sea Fleet in the name of "freedom of movement on the high seas".

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Possibly UKR embarrassed him enough to force his hand on the blockade (blowing the Crimea bridge the day before the grain deal would be accepted). This creates easier targets for UKR navy drones (blockades may require a show of force) and creates an untenable politics for Russia around worldwide food safety.

A lot of chatter in the last few hours re: Tokmak direction unconfirmed):

HIMARS strikes are reported in Tokmak, occupied Zaporizhzia region right now. pic.twitter.com/GtKCfgl0UV

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 27, 2023

⚡️Russian proxy claims Ukraine struck Tokmak in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The Russian-installed proxy leader of the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Vladimir Rogov said on Telegram on July 27 that Ukrainian forces had struck the Russian-held town of Tokmak.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 27, 2023

Ukraine Invasion: Ukrain missile attack destroyed large ammunition dump in town of Tokmak on Southern Front near Zaporizhzhia. Russian lines breached at Robotyne
Ukrainian counter-offensive breaks through Russian defences in major push https://t.co/K94TbLQB8B via @yahoolifeuk

— DavidAFoot (@DavidAFoot) July 27, 2023