Quote:

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One span of the road part of the Crimean bridge is destroyed and cannot be restored - Russian minister

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/17-july-one-span-of-the-road-part-of-the-crimean-bridge-is

txags92 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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"Now a very powerful Russian group is concentrated in the Lyman - Kupyansk direction. More than 100,000 personnel, more than 900 tanks and 370 self-propelled guns" — Cherevaty

— MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) July 17, 2023

100k troops?

Battle of the bulge?

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I am going to say there is zero chance the orcs have a group that large anywhere near Ukrainian lines without it getting hammered by HIMARs and other longer range munitions.

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I don't believe they have 900 total tanks in Ukraine at this point, let alone capable of massing them for an offensive. If they had 100k troops, they would be on the front lines.

Kinda hope they do. Would be fun to see what the new cluster munitions could do to a group of orcs that thick.

Teslag said:

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Kinda hope they do. Would be fun to see what the new cluster munitions could do to a group of orcs that thick.

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There wouldn't be enough in theater for that size force.

Maybe they're T55s.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Yes, call me skeptical, but there is NO WAY they put this together without western intelligence spotting it and handing that information off to Ukraine and without its presence being noted to the public following the war in significant detail as it assembled.

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Maybe this was the rationale behind approval and delivery of cluster munitions.

2wealfth Man said:

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FriscoKid said:

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"Now a very powerful Russian group is concentrated in the Lyman - Kupyansk direction. More than 100,000 personnel, more than 900 tanks and 370 self-propelled guns" — Cherevaty

— MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) July 17, 2023

100k troops?

Battle of the bulge?

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calling BS; the logistics alone to get something that big armed, fed and moving would be 20x beyond the scope of anything we have seen the Russians capable of. If they are, in fact, doing this the starvation and lack of ammo for the troops is going to cause a mass mutiny.

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Yeah. I don't doubt they are trying to be offensive there - probably to take some pressure off other places where they are defensive. I do doubt they have put together the type of force that can sieze anything of value. There's a reason Ukraine has the initiative everywhere else on the frontline.

I wouldn't suspend it under a drone. I'd put it on a glorified RC car and try to keep it as low and quiet as possible with the idea of remotely mapping the minefield before breaching.

SmallBusiness said:

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aezmvp said:

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I could definitely see the later. Building something so heavy that it could withstand ATGMs while doing mine clearing doesn't seem like it would work in Ukraine where there are really only 6 months of the year where you can use the tanks in a off road fashion.

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I always thought we needed some low cost remotely controlled "disposable" Skid Steers.

Let some 18 year olds see how far they can get.

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Funny thought. And re: the difficult to detect, I don't doubt it. All the combat debris as well would make chemical sensors give you a lot of false positives too. I just think that the small remote ground item is more plausible than some Mammoth Tank mine clearing vehicle.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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I wouldn't suspend it under a drone. I'd put it on a glorified RC car and try to keep it as low and quiet as possible with the idea of remotely mapping the minefield before breaching.

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The problem is that something big enough to carry the sensor, the batteries to run it, the GPS antenna, and all the processing gear is going to require a cart big enough to set off any mine it runs over before it gets a chance to detect it. To reasonably think you can detect a mine up to 1-2' deep, you are going to need a sensor that is probably at least 30" x 30". I like your idea, but the sensors have to be big to be able to classify the signature they read against a library of know signatures.

Neither side is using aircraft for CAS. Stand-off missiles are about it, which is a significant capability. We spend a ton of time and resources to be able to have actual close air support and the only way it's more responsive than organic fires is with complete air superiority. If those KA-52's try to use guns on a trench they're not going to be around long.

My point is that with adequate targeting Ukraine has the capabilities of air power with the exception of deep strikes and anti air.

More details on the bridge strike and subsequent fulminating from the Kremlin.

DRONES

Perhaps this new model USV? Maybe too limited range, though.

LATEST

SmallBusiness said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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74OA said:

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Sappers can't clear paths through the minefields until the pre-sighted Russian artillery guarding them is sufficiently attrited. This is why the initial counterbattery battle Ukraine is steadily winning is so important.

"In the open fields of Zaporizhzhia in particular, where finding cover is difficult, commanders are exposing fewer soldiers in order to limit the number of casualties from heavy artillery."

SLOW GOING

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The lesson learned here, to me, is that you need a mine clearing vehicle so heavily armored it can withstand ATGM's and artillery to clear a mine field while under fire, or something that can do it stealthily at night, like a small, remotely operated electric vehicle with a metal detector. Have it drive out and quietly mark mines or plant charges and blow them all after it retreats.

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Can a heavy tank (say Abrams, Leopard 2) survive a top hit from a 152MM?

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Here's an interesting review of the effects of artillery on various vehicles, including armor.

Scroll down to the "Myths" box for the bottom line.

SURPRISING

Interesting. Thanks.

30 yards is a lot further than I would have guessed.

txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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I wouldn't suspend it under a drone. I'd put it on a glorified RC car and try to keep it as low and quiet as possible with the idea of remotely mapping the minefield before breaching.

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The problem is that something big enough to carry the sensor, the batteries to run it, the GPS antenna, and all the processing gear is going to require a cart big enough to set off any mine it runs over before it gets a chance to detect it. To reasonably think you can detect a mine up to 1-2' deep, you are going to need a sensor that is probably at least 30" x 30". I like your idea, but the sensors have to be big to be able to classify the signature they read against a library of know signatures.

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Maybe somewhat off target and simplistic, but I remember in Saving Private Ryan, they mentioned "those little wooden bastages that the minesweepers couldn't detect". Are there similar mines made of non-detectable materials today?

B-1 83 said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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I wouldn't suspend it under a drone. I'd put it on a glorified RC car and try to keep it as low and quiet as possible with the idea of remotely mapping the minefield before breaching.

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The problem is that something big enough to carry the sensor, the batteries to run it, the GPS antenna, and all the processing gear is going to require a cart big enough to set off any mine it runs over before it gets a chance to detect it. To reasonably think you can detect a mine up to 1-2' deep, you are going to need a sensor that is probably at least 30" x 30". I like your idea, but the sensors have to be big to be able to classify the signature they read against a library of know signatures.

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Maybe somewhat off target and simplistic, but I remember in Saving Private Ryan, they mentioned "those little wooden bastages that the minesweepers couldn't detect". Are there similar mines made of non-detectable materials today?

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Yup. VS-50 pops into mind. Iconic Italian made little *******s made of plastic. Only metal in them is parts of the fuse. Hard to detect and designed to be so.

FYI, those little wooden *******s were the Schu-mine 42. A super simple design using a falling pin, striker fired fuse. Just about all the metal that was in those things.

B-1 83 said:

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txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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I wouldn't suspend it under a drone. I'd put it on a glorified RC car and try to keep it as low and quiet as possible with the idea of remotely mapping the minefield before breaching.

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The problem is that something big enough to carry the sensor, the batteries to run it, the GPS antenna, and all the processing gear is going to require a cart big enough to set off any mine it runs over before it gets a chance to detect it. To reasonably think you can detect a mine up to 1-2' deep, you are going to need a sensor that is probably at least 30" x 30". I like your idea, but the sensors have to be big to be able to classify the signature they read against a library of know signatures.

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Maybe somewhat off target and simplistic, but I remember in Saving Private Ryan, they mentioned "those little wooden bastages that the minesweepers couldn't detect". Are there similar mines made of non-detectable materials today?

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Yeah, Eliminatus covered it in his reply, but I just wanted to add that theoretically there are other tools like microgravity that can detect the differential in density between the native soil and a non-metallic mine, assuming the native soil is otherwise mostly uniform and undisturbed. However, in an area that has been pockmarked with artillery impacts and shrapnel, they would be pretty much impossible to detect. Also, the tools necessary to do a microgravity survey are not as easily portable or quick to scan as the Apex or an EM-61 system.

thankfully i have not experienced it, but i would think that the sheer inability to affect your own fate would be pretty demoralizing with artillery incoming.

i mean, you may get in a fox hole, trench, AFV, or do your best to GTFO, but bottom line, that's pure hate coming from heaven, and if it finds you there is not a damn thing you can do but watch your body parts spread into mist.

KERCH BRIDGE ATTACK: UKR's strike likely utilized a 2nd Generation variant of UKR's Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV). Damage to the road-spans suggest that the attacking USVs carried approx. 1000 lbs (453 Kg) of explosive configured as a linear shaped charge. The USVs were detonated… pic.twitter.com/2uEzWGAShL

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 17, 2023

Correct, Russia sucks at combines arms and Ukraine doesn't have enough aircraft to do it

Fwiw, this would appear to lend additional support to the claimed numbers, but also provides a little more context. We'll see how it goes.

the fact is that russia attacking is the best news that ukr could ever get, they are dug in and have more arty than the ru do... by moving forward they are in the open and thats the stuff that cluster bombs LOVE!!!!

only 60k+ for 300k kia... this could put them over the top.

— david D. (@secretsqrl123) July 17, 2023

Ukraine attacked the Crimean Bridge, which connects occupied Crimea with Russia, with kamikaze unmanned surface vehicles (USVs).

The damaged span of the Crimean bridge in the direction of Kerch sank by 50 cm.

Another span - towards Taman – was destroyed. pic.twitter.com/7WPTPHuBE1

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 17, 2023

Clearer pictures of the destroyed span of the Kerch Bridge. It is the side leading from Russia to the temporarily occupied peninsula.

That bridge section will not be operational for the rest of the year and we will see what will come next. It is obvious that Russians cannot… pic.twitter.com/LyNKZHE2jG

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) July 17, 2023

The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin stated today during a Televised Meeting that the Ministry of Defense is preparing a number of Response Options for the “Terrorist Attack by the Kyiv Regime” against the Kerch Striat Bridge and that he has also requested the Military to… pic.twitter.com/wfo3UZ8sDe

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 17, 2023

Thus, repairs this time around will likely be more efficient. Russian authorities also likely have capacity in place to install pre-fab spans, and the relative distance to shore and water clearance is a less-technically complex operation overall.

2|2

— | osint_east | (@osint_east) July 17, 2023

people are saying ... what about ukraine....
ukraine has been getting more aircraft.
in fact ukraine has a growing airforce with more western and soviet helicopters being delivered than many know about. entire airforces of helicopters have been donated...

on the fixed wing…

— david D. (@secretsqrl123) July 17, 2023

Russian Sources are reporting that a 3M54-1 “Kalibr” Cruise Missile has Targeted the Large Commercial Port in the Ukrainian City of Odesa tonight, with a Pillar of Black Smoke seen coming from the Location after the Explosion; the Port of Odesa was the Primary Port during the… pic.twitter.com/Nc1oOMemhT

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 18, 2023

"The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military's most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort.

The recent dismissal of 58th Combined Arms Army Commander (CAA) Colonel General Ivan Popov and the reported dismissal of 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov prompted further discussions of other alleged recent dismissals and arrests.

Russian sources amplified an alleged audio message from personnel of the 7th Guards Mountain VDV Division on July 15 in which the personnel claimed that the Russian military command dismissed 7th VDV Division Commander Major General Alexander Kornev in early July.

Russian sources also claimed that Russian authorities arrested 90th Tank Division (Eastern Military District) Commander Major General Ramil Ibatullin as well as two unspecified deputies on an unspecified date.

A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger suggested that the Russian military command is also planning to dismiss the 31st VDV Brigade Commander, who is reportedly Colonel Sergei Karasev.

Russian sources speculated that the Russian MoD may be preparing to arrest VDV Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky.

ISW has not observed confirmation of Seliverstov's and Kornev's dismissals nor of Ibatullin's arrest, although these claims follow a pattern similar to that of previous claims of command changes that have proven true.

These formations and units are conducting defensive and offensive operations in key sectors of the front in Ukraine.

The 58th CAA has conducted a relatively successful defense against Ukrainian counteroffensives in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and the 106th Division is committed to defending against Ukrainian assaults on Bakhmut's northern and southern flanks.

ISW has observed elements of the 7th VDV Division deployed to east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge as well as to unspecified areas of western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian milbloggers have claimed that the 31st VDV Brigade is also defending in the Bakhmut direction and that elements of the 90th Tank Division are involved in ongoing limited assaults west of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast."

ABATTBQ11 said:

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74OA said:

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Sappers can't clear paths through the minefields until the pre-sighted Russian artillery guarding them is sufficiently attrited. This is why the initial counterbattery battle Ukraine is steadily winning is so important.

"In the open fields of Zaporizhzhia in particular, where finding cover is difficult, commanders are exposing fewer soldiers in order to limit the number of casualties from heavy artillery."

SLOW GOING

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The lesson learned here, to me, is that you need a mine clearing vehicle so heavily armored it can withstand ATGM's and artillery to clear a mine field while under fire, or something that can do it stealthily at night, like a small, remotely operated electric vehicle with a metal detector. Have it drive out and quietly mark mines or plant charges and blow them all after it retreats.

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it's called MICLIC

Posted elsewhere:

Best-case scenario: Each MICLIC can clear a path only 328 feet long, which means it would take a minimum of 16 MICLICs per mile. With 55 miles to go, that would require at least 880 MICLICs for a single advancing element. Indeed, as Ukraine's military chief told the Washington Post in late June, "It takes a lot of them."
And that's just for a path merely 25 feet wide, maximum (so no turning around under this notional scenario), and with a mandatory 30 minutes between each use, per launcher, making everyone a bunch of very vulnerable sitting ducks.
Other options include Bangalore torpedo explosive charges used by the British, and German Wisent mine-clearance tanks, the Washington Post reported Saturday. But all it takes is knocking out one tank to put the entire advancing line in turmoil. "When the enemy sees even a Leopard tank in front of him and special engineering equipment, he will destroy the special equipment first," one Ukrainian told the Post. "Because without it, all the others will not pass. And in just a couple of days of the offensive, several such vehicles were destroyed along with their crews."
On top of all this, "The Russians are also able to drop more mines from drones, reseeding areas that the Ukrainians had cleared," the Post reports. And so Ukrainian demining troops are limited to often literally crawling on their stomachs across these miles and miles of terrain in order to advance just a tiny bit toward their goals in this counteroffensive.

Any demining method is unlikely to be successful when it is under constant artillery fire and as the article I linked earlier on this page points out, armored vehicles are surprisingly vulnerable to artillery fragments and submunitions. First suppressing Russian artillery is essential for the sappers to survive long enough to do their job whether under armor or not. Here's an Army training film which illustrates just how difficult and dangerous a breaching operation is and why Ukraine is struggling with it.

Well worth watching: BREACHING

Rossticus said:

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Thus, repairs this time around will likely be more efficient. Russian authorities also likely have capacity in place to install pre-fab spans, and the relative distance to shore and water clearance is a less-technically complex operation overall.

2|2

— | osint_east | (@osint_east) July 17, 2023

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The October attack took a lot longer to repair than predicted. hopefully the same holds true here.

LMCane said:

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"The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military's most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort.

The recent dismissal of 58th Combined Arms Army Commander (CAA) Colonel General Ivan Popov and the reported dismissal of 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov prompted further discussions of other alleged recent dismissals and arrests.

Russian sources amplified an alleged audio message from personnel of the 7th Guards Mountain VDV Division on July 15 in which the personnel claimed that the Russian military command dismissed 7th VDV Division Commander Major General Alexander Kornev in early July.

Russian sources also claimed that Russian authorities arrested 90th Tank Division (Eastern Military District) Commander Major General Ramil Ibatullin as well as two unspecified deputies on an unspecified date.

A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger suggested that the Russian military command is also planning to dismiss the 31st VDV Brigade Commander, who is reportedly Colonel Sergei Karasev.

Russian sources speculated that the Russian MoD may be preparing to arrest VDV Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky.

ISW has not observed confirmation of Seliverstov's and Kornev's dismissals nor of Ibatullin's arrest, although these claims follow a pattern similar to that of previous claims of command changes that have proven true.

These formations and units are conducting defensive and offensive operations in key sectors of the front in Ukraine.

The 58th CAA has conducted a relatively successful defense against Ukrainian counteroffensives in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and the 106th Division is committed to defending against Ukrainian assaults on Bakhmut's northern and southern flanks.

ISW has observed elements of the 7th VDV Division deployed to east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge as well as to unspecified areas of western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian milbloggers have claimed that the 31st VDV Brigade is also defending in the Bakhmut direction and that elements of the 90th Tank Division are involved in ongoing limited assaults west of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast."

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Always baffling watching them do this. Usually, consistent dismissals are a sign that the enemy is on its last legs. That aside, as siloed as the Russian army is, the constant knowledge vacuum and lack of any form of turnover has to be hampering them significantly.

Russia's problem with military deserters is growing as increasing numbers of men flee.

FLEEING

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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LMCane said:

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"The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military's most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort.

The recent dismissal of 58th Combined Arms Army Commander (CAA) Colonel General Ivan Popov and the reported dismissal of 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov prompted further discussions of other alleged recent dismissals and arrests.

Russian sources amplified an alleged audio message from personnel of the 7th Guards Mountain VDV Division on July 15 in which the personnel claimed that the Russian military command dismissed 7th VDV Division Commander Major General Alexander Kornev in early July.

Russian sources also claimed that Russian authorities arrested 90th Tank Division (Eastern Military District) Commander Major General Ramil Ibatullin as well as two unspecified deputies on an unspecified date.

A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger suggested that the Russian military command is also planning to dismiss the 31st VDV Brigade Commander, who is reportedly Colonel Sergei Karasev.

Russian sources speculated that the Russian MoD may be preparing to arrest VDV Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky.

ISW has not observed confirmation of Seliverstov's and Kornev's dismissals nor of Ibatullin's arrest, although these claims follow a pattern similar to that of previous claims of command changes that have proven true.

These formations and units are conducting defensive and offensive operations in key sectors of the front in Ukraine.

The 58th CAA has conducted a relatively successful defense against Ukrainian counteroffensives in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and the 106th Division is committed to defending against Ukrainian assaults on Bakhmut's northern and southern flanks.

ISW has observed elements of the 7th VDV Division deployed to east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge as well as to unspecified areas of western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian milbloggers have claimed that the 31st VDV Brigade is also defending in the Bakhmut direction and that elements of the 90th Tank Division are involved in ongoing limited assaults west of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast."

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Always baffling watching them do this. Usually, consistent dismissals are a sign that the enemy is on its last legs. That aside, as siloed as the Russian army is, the constant knowledge vacuum and lack of any form of turnover has to be hampering them significantly.

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I wonder how much of this is continued fallout from the Wagner mutiny and the corruption found in the wake of it?

The intel and FME folks are likely going crazy getting their hands on all sorts of the latest Russian military equipment. Examples at the links imbedded in this quote.

"Although Radakin didn't mention any specific types of military vehicles that might be involved, we know that examples of some of the latest variants of Russian main battle tanks, electronic warfare vehicles, and air defense systems have all been captured during the war. We have also seen examples of captured Russian tanks sent back to the United States for FME, an activity that has taken place in the public eye, although much more has presumably been taking place on the clandestine side, too."

UK, too.

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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LMCane said:

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"The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military's most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort.

The recent dismissal of 58th Combined Arms Army Commander (CAA) Colonel General Ivan Popov and the reported dismissal of 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov prompted further discussions of other alleged recent dismissals and arrests.

Russian sources amplified an alleged audio message from personnel of the 7th Guards Mountain VDV Division on July 15 in which the personnel claimed that the Russian military command dismissed 7th VDV Division Commander Major General Alexander Kornev in early July.

Russian sources also claimed that Russian authorities arrested 90th Tank Division (Eastern Military District) Commander Major General Ramil Ibatullin as well as two unspecified deputies on an unspecified date.

A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger suggested that the Russian military command is also planning to dismiss the 31st VDV Brigade Commander, who is reportedly Colonel Sergei Karasev.

Russian sources speculated that the Russian MoD may be preparing to arrest VDV Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky.

ISW has not observed confirmation of Seliverstov's and Kornev's dismissals nor of Ibatullin's arrest, although these claims follow a pattern similar to that of previous claims of command changes that have proven true.

These formations and units are conducting defensive and offensive operations in key sectors of the front in Ukraine.

The 58th CAA has conducted a relatively successful defense against Ukrainian counteroffensives in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and the 106th Division is committed to defending against Ukrainian assaults on Bakhmut's northern and southern flanks.

ISW has observed elements of the 7th VDV Division deployed to east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge as well as to unspecified areas of western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian milbloggers have claimed that the 31st VDV Brigade is also defending in the Bakhmut direction and that elements of the 90th Tank Division are involved in ongoing limited assaults west of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast."

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Always baffling watching them do this. Usually, consistent dismissals are a sign that the enemy is on its last legs. That aside, as siloed as the Russian army is, the constant knowledge vacuum and lack of any form of turnover has to be hampering them significantly.

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Moral of the story, you don't want to get promoted or you'll find yourself at the rank of scapegoat someday.

Pentagon promises more Bradleys and Strykers.

Today's SITREP.