***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,537,075 Views | 47716 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by 74OA
JFABNRGR
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With tremendous sympathy for his family and friends and his Ukrainian fiancee.
Here is the majority of this article:
"Lake Forest veteran killed while fighting for Ukraine, family says
Ian "Frank" Tortorici, 32, was killed in a Russian missile strike last week while dining at a pizzeria, the Orange County native's father said."
While backpacking through eastern Europe, Ian "Frank" Tortorici met a girl and fell in love both with the Ukrainian woman who would become his fiance, and her home country.
So, when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the former Marine from Lake Forest quit his job with the U.S Immigration and Customs Enforcement and flew to Kyiv, where he enlisted in the Ukrainian International Legion.
Trained as a paramedic, the Orange County native survived more than a year of battles from Irpin to Zaporizhzhia. While on leave from the front, however, Tortorici, 32, was killed last week at a central Kramatorsk restaurant during a Russian missile attack, according to his family.
"He never got wounded. He never got hurt on any of the operations, with the exception of one concussion," his father, Jon Frank, told the Southern California News Group in a phone interview on Tuesday, July 4. Then, "he was killed on leave eating in a restaurant by a Russian collaborator, who called in a (missile) strike."
A U.S. State Department official confirmed the death late Tuesday "of a U.S. citizen in Kramatorsk, Ukraine."
"We offer our sincerest condolences to the family on their loss and stand ready to provide all possible consular assistance," the official said.
Tortorici is one of just a handful of U.S. veterans to have been killed in the Ukrainian war.
The Associated Press reported in May that at least nine American fighters had been killed in the war so far. Frank, a former Marine and a retired U.S. Marshal, believes there may be as many as 25 Americans killed in the war.
According to British news outlets, Russian S-300 missiles hit a crowded pizza restaurant in Kramatorsk on June 27, killing at least eleven people, including three children.
AgLA06
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So they killed a Uke volunteer medic soldier while on leave. Sitting in a restaurant in civilian clothes.

Master strategists to kill / mame all those civilians.

The more I see of this, the more I'm convinced they missed their target and are fabricating the truth.
PJYoung
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PJYoung
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74OA
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PJYoung said:


Time is no longer on Russia's side:

DECLINE
O&G
AgLA06
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It hasn't been since about day 3 of the invasion.
JFABNRGR
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Majority of July 2nd UV Blog Post. Full link at bottom but interesting stuff here.

Artificial Intelligence: AI, although in its current form is neither the technological panacea nor the doomsday tech some claim, it is being to put to significant use on the battlefield. Recognition and ID engines can use drone photos and combine that with other intel to get a picture of what units are in a particular area (examples being unit signs/patches, equipment type), and even possibly how large the force is. Geometry recognition engines can discriminate human-made shapes from natural ones, and in some cases use the pattern to ID equipment and trenches obscured by trees. We use it in the field on a small scale to modify battle maps.
With inputs from our observations, from drones and assumptions or solid intel on file, we can get a good statistical look at our surroundings. The issue here is jamming reduces the capability of gathering some intel, and all this stuff needs to be processed real-time to be most effective. I use a type of AI called fuzzy logic to help identify drones from presets and noise factors, which is about 50% successful.
Drones: Outside of highly effective military systems, drones are probably the star of the show, as far as machines go. I won't go into detail of the commonly known things, but will touch on some fairly unique uses.
In addition to intel and direct attack, drones are used in diversionary tactics. Not only can they transmit false messages, they can create a false area of interest by their volume and emissions, if only for that reason. Munition dropping drones can also be used for diversion. We do not normally have munition-equipped drones with us, but we usually do have one observation drone and a few micro drones. Since we do not have a quick means of escape, we can sometimes sacrifice a micro drone by crashing it on their position and diverting attention, possible long enough to vacate the area, or to use surprise and heavy fire to reduce their combat effectiveness so we can withdraw.
In response to heavy EW jamming, drones are being modified to lock-in on a strong EW signal and crash into the source. The issue is they have to be able to get a lock from a flying position where they are still functional, and often have to deal with multiple jamming sources. This is where AI comes into play to parse signal strength and radiated direction.
Novel use of older tech: This type of "regression" is commonly looked-down upon by military experts and analysts. But, in circumstances where new technology is not available, it is often the most efficient method to leverage what you have on-hand. Weaponized drones are certainly not new, and the use of drones to drop older grenades as AP and AV/AE (anti-vehicle/anti-equipmentEd.) munitions is also not new. What is new is their utilization rate and their multiple operational roles in a single platform.
An example is one drone can be used for injecting misinformation into the enemy comms, while taking intel photos and also carrying a munition. This leveraging of the platform means they can be designated single or multiple mission roles up-front, and their mission can be changed while they are in-flight. In a less dressed-out configuration, they can be used to drop supplies to troops. Their limit here is weight, of course, but we have been supplied multiple times by drones, almost always rifle ammunition.
Another use of older tech is moving to comms systems out of the frequency range of Russian jamming. This means less efficient comms, but adequate comm is much better than no comm. One way around this is by using drones as repeaters, and by using old school wire antennas that can be deployed and packed-up quickly. Some micro-drones are capable of ascending with a tiny wire antenna.
And which ones are promising, but employed in too small a scale to make an impact? Which of these have failed?
I would say the Switchblade 300 system was a significant failure as compared to expectations- by both numbers provided and the small warhead and limited range. It is however useful for small teams to take-out antennas and personnel. The Switchblade 600 is more effective, as is the Phoenix Ghost, but the latter is by word of mouth, I have no experience with it.
And, although one of the biggest success stories, drones are to some degree also a failure. The reason for that is jamming. So, their success is really down to timing. Once the Russians started wide-area jamming and GPS stunting, drones became overall much less effective. The use of low-level flying, using active devices on the ground for route mapping, inertial in some systems and more sophisticated comm links have helped.
The best solution would be to reduce the jamming assets, but that requires weapons Ukraine does not have except for combating their very forward systems. On the flip side, the Russian jamming also effects some of their own drones.
The devolution of war: Which devolutions are we seeing (e.g., Russian convicts being used, including in human wave attacks, etc.)?
Despite its fame as a technology driver, war in its basic form is a sort of de-evolution from what we like to consider as societal norms. But, in the field, where high tech weapons leave the same results as human wave attacks and artillery/bombs, there is not a lot of difference other than maybe volume. Once war gets to a stalemate of sorts, with both sides committed and in drawn battle lines, the techniques almost invariable become those covered in dusty military history tomes. ISIS was known for their human wave attacks, and facing them, you eventually just get sick of killing people.
Once you are where we are in some areas of Ukraine, you need weapons systems that can give you stand-off distance, and you need systems (example: cluster munitions) to deal with packed troops and kit. With stand-off you can attrit their support and possibly create flanking opportunities. The use of AP mines and boobytraps might fall into this category, although the international laws surrounding their use are complex and not absolute. And, if your national survival is at stake, breaking a treaty might be preferable to the alternative.
In the end, war comes down largely to explosions and folks with guns killing each other. Sometimes the best you can do is by tactics and systems try to limit your own losses to something acceptable. But, with national survival at stake, what is the limit on acceptable?

I finally got my Android device to vibrate when it thinks is detects a drone. I am weak on Java.
C was not impressed, and suggested I have it vibrate at different levels of intensity based on confidence level. "No point in detecting some Vatnik's electric shaver." Ah, non-believers…

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/07/02/untreated-mortality-is-around-90-somewhat-short-of-c-s-standards/
74OA
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The lessons-learned keep piling up from Ukraine. Thanks again, Vlad......

CPs
ACTION-REACTION
JFABNRGR
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74OA said:

The lessons-learned keep piling up from Ukraine. Thanks again, Vlad......

CPs
ACTION-REACTION
I would have thought COVID fixed this but yeah disbursement and redundancy in C2 should always be doctrine.
wildmen09
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It was then COIN happened. These huge Army command posts that are static are long gone. They're building redundancies and moving every day or so depending how close to the FLOT you are
Waffledynamics
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javajaws
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Anybody heard where Prigozhin might be? Apparently Lukashenko doesn't think he is in Belarus.

Has he been disappeared?
74OA
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Prigozhin in St. Petersburg and updates about the counteroffensive.

Today's SITREP.
Gilligan
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JFABNRGR said:

Majority of July 2nd UV Blog Post. Full link at bottom but interesting stuff here.

Artificial Intelligence: AI, although in its current form is neither the technological panacea nor the doomsday tech some claim, it is being to put to significant use on the battlefield. Recognition and ID engines can use drone photos and combine that with other intel to get a picture of what units are in a particular area (examples being unit signs/patches, equipment type), and even possibly how large the force is. Geometry recognition engines can discriminate human-made shapes from natural ones, and in some cases use the pattern to ID equipment and trenches obscured by trees. We use it in the field on a small scale to modify battle maps.
With inputs from our observations, from drones and assumptions or solid intel on file, we can get a good statistical look at our surroundings. The issue here is jamming reduces the capability of gathering some intel, and all this stuff needs to be processed real-time to be most effective. I use a type of AI called fuzzy logic to help identify drones from presets and noise factors, which is about 50% successful.
Drones: Outside of highly effective military systems, drones are probably the star of the show, as far as machines go. I won't go into detail of the commonly known things, but will touch on some fairly unique uses.
In addition to intel and direct attack, drones are used in diversionary tactics. Not only can they transmit false messages, they can create a false area of interest by their volume and emissions, if only for that reason. Munition dropping drones can also be used for diversion. We do not normally have munition-equipped drones with us, but we usually do have one observation drone and a few micro drones. Since we do not have a quick means of escape, we can sometimes sacrifice a micro drone by crashing it on their position and diverting attention, possible long enough to vacate the area, or to use surprise and heavy fire to reduce their combat effectiveness so we can withdraw.
In response to heavy EW jamming, drones are being modified to lock-in on a strong EW signal and crash into the source. The issue is they have to be able to get a lock from a flying position where they are still functional, and often have to deal with multiple jamming sources. This is where AI comes into play to parse signal strength and radiated direction.
Novel use of older tech: This type of "regression" is commonly looked-down upon by military experts and analysts. But, in circumstances where new technology is not available, it is often the most efficient method to leverage what you have on-hand. Weaponized drones are certainly not new, and the use of drones to drop older grenades as AP and AV/AE (anti-vehicle/anti-equipmentEd.) munitions is also not new. What is new is their utilization rate and their multiple operational roles in a single platform.
An example is one drone can be used for injecting misinformation into the enemy comms, while taking intel photos and also carrying a munition. This leveraging of the platform means they can be designated single or multiple mission roles up-front, and their mission can be changed while they are in-flight. In a less dressed-out configuration, they can be used to drop supplies to troops. Their limit here is weight, of course, but we have been supplied multiple times by drones, almost always rifle ammunition.
Another use of older tech is moving to comms systems out of the frequency range of Russian jamming. This means less efficient comms, but adequate comm is much better than no comm. One way around this is by using drones as repeaters, and by using old school wire antennas that can be deployed and packed-up quickly. Some micro-drones are capable of ascending with a tiny wire antenna.
And which ones are promising, but employed in too small a scale to make an impact? Which of these have failed?
I would say the Switchblade 300 system was a significant failure as compared to expectations- by both numbers provided and the small warhead and limited range. It is however useful for small teams to take-out antennas and personnel. The Switchblade 600 is more effective, as is the Phoenix Ghost, but the latter is by word of mouth, I have no experience with it.
And, although one of the biggest success stories, drones are to some degree also a failure. The reason for that is jamming. So, their success is really down to timing. Once the Russians started wide-area jamming and GPS stunting, drones became overall much less effective. The use of low-level flying, using active devices on the ground for route mapping, inertial in some systems and more sophisticated comm links have helped.
The best solution would be to reduce the jamming assets, but that requires weapons Ukraine does not have except for combating their very forward systems. On the flip side, the Russian jamming also effects some of their own drones.
The devolution of war: Which devolutions are we seeing (e.g., Russian convicts being used, including in human wave attacks, etc.)?
Despite its fame as a technology driver, war in its basic form is a sort of de-evolution from what we like to consider as societal norms. But, in the field, where high tech weapons leave the same results as human wave attacks and artillery/bombs, there is not a lot of difference other than maybe volume. Once war gets to a stalemate of sorts, with both sides committed and in drawn battle lines, the techniques almost invariable become those covered in dusty military history tomes. ISIS was known for their human wave attacks, and facing them, you eventually just get sick of killing people.
Once you are where we are in some areas of Ukraine, you need weapons systems that can give you stand-off distance, and you need systems (example: cluster munitions) to deal with packed troops and kit. With stand-off you can attrit their support and possibly create flanking opportunities. The use of AP mines and boobytraps might fall into this category, although the international laws surrounding their use are complex and not absolute. And, if your national survival is at stake, breaking a treaty might be preferable to the alternative.
In the end, war comes down largely to explosions and folks with guns killing each other. Sometimes the best you can do is by tactics and systems try to limit your own losses to something acceptable. But, with national survival at stake, what is the limit on acceptable?

I finally got my Android device to vibrate when it thinks is detects a drone. I am weak on Java.
C was not impressed, and suggested I have it vibrate at different levels of intensity based on confidence level. "No point in detecting some Vatnik's electric shaver." Ah, non-believers…

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/07/02/untreated-mortality-is-around-90-somewhat-short-of-c-s-standards/


This guy has to have turned 77 while in Ukraine. He is impressive.
74OA
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Looks like cluster munitions are likely a go for Ukraine. Will be very useful for attacking Russia's sprawling fortified zones.

REUTERS
MJ20/20
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aggiehawg
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What? NATO tactics are that different from the US?
JFABNRGR
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Yeah another Billy Waugh. Thank God for them. The real question here is he really a volunteer.
Rossticus
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D. Turner
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JFABNRGR said:

Yeah another Billy Waugh. Thank God for them. The real question here is he really a volunteer.


Nice mention. Thanks. My deceased Dad and now deceased Billy Waugh were friends. Mr. Waugh was from my Dad's home town. My Dad enjoyed talking with him, great stories. He was a Green Beret and then CIA.
74OA
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The good Mitch.

Rossticus
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AgLA06
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MJ20/20 said:






Who? I didn't know Austria had a formal military.
LMCane
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AgLA06 said:

MJ20/20 said:






Who? I didn't know Austria had a formal military.
it's hilarious- the Ukraine advance has "failed" by gaining more territory in the last six weeks

than the "successful" Russian winter offensive gained over four months.

there have literally been Ukrainian advances across most of a 200 kilometer front. and Bakhmut is nearly surrounded from northern and southern pincers.

with a crossing of the Dnipro around Kohkhavka
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Gordo14
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Rumor is 100,000 artillery rounds delivered very quickly. I would bet Ukraine waits until they can use some of that artillery before moving to the next stage of the counteroffensive.
AgLA06
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Rossticus said:




We've seen mass retreats by the Russians through fields. This is what that problem needs.

Fire for effect.
aezmvp
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Gordo14 said:

Rumor is 100,000 artillery rounds delivered very quickly. I would bet Ukraine waits until they can use some of that artillery before moving to the next stage of the counteroffensive.
It's effective but that clip requires some good ToT coordination in a battery and I wonder how much the Ukes will risk concentrating an asset like those guns.
GAC06
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It's fired from the same guns they're using and risking right now
aezmvp
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GAC06 said:

It's fired from the same guns they're using and risking right now
I understand that, I'm just not sure how much the Ukraine is going to want to concentrate those assets outside of a major assault.
Gordo14
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aezmvp said:

GAC06 said:

It's fired from the same guns they're using and risking right now
I understand that, I'm just not sure how much the Ukraine is going to want to concentrate those assets outside of a major assault.


Other than airpower the thing they are missing for large scale offensives is artillery shell volume. This could give them that ability for a period of time.
JFABNRGR
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They won't consolidate guns in a battery and really haven't since lessons learned from 2014. They have been extremely effective with their indirect fires of all types and this will be just another special tool in the tool bag.

If the trench is 500M long full of orcs one shot at at one end from one gun will likely be enough to convince the rest of the Ivans to tuck tail and head east…..and frankly won't bother me much if the FO ADDs 50M every 10-15' or so until only the luckiest worm makes it back to the next LOD so he can scare the **** out of them with what he just witnessed.
74OA
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Why DPICM might well be key to breaking open Russia's deep dug fortifications in south Ukraine.

CLUSTER
Waffledynamics
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And now for something completely different.

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