War Monitor has been a fun follow. He is not a fan of Isreal so um... just keep that in mind.

You have @WarMonitors and @WarMonitor3, both calling themselves WarMonitor. I rather follow the latter

sclaff said:

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You have @WarMonitors and @WarMonitor3, both calling themselves WarMonitor. I rather follow the latter

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Neither are particularly credible, but this video was entertaining. Weird stuff happens in war, apparently.

Rumble at the Kherson bridgehead

Prigozhin's current situation and status is beyond bizarre. What a cluster.

Prigozhin’s ability to freely operate in Russia suggests that Prigozhin is still protected by some security guarantees and/or that the Kremlin continues to prioritize undermining his reputation in Russia over targeting Prigozhin physically or legally.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 7, 2023

Yeah for credible you're better off with Rob Lee, Michael Kofman, ISW, and Oryx even to an extent OSINTDefender & OSINTTechnical.

benchmark said:

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Prigozhin's current situation and status is beyond bizarre. What a cluster.

Prigozhin’s ability to freely operate in Russia suggests that Prigozhin is still protected by some security guarantees and/or that the Kremlin continues to prioritize undermining his reputation in Russia over targeting Prigozhin physically or legally.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 7, 2023

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Damn, looks like the coup will have long lasting effects on Putin's legacy, regardless of the outcome.

benchmark said:

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Prigozhin's current situation and status is beyond bizarre. What a cluster.

Prigozhin’s ability to freely operate in Russia suggests that Prigozhin is still protected by some security guarantees and/or that the Kremlin continues to prioritize undermining his reputation in Russia over targeting Prigozhin physically or legally.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 7, 2023

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This whole thing w Pringles is strange … my thought is there are plenty more Russian military top brass that respect the Pringle man and Puttee knows that…. Puttee doesn't want to rock the boat in fears that those other top brass may join Pringle and kick Puttee out ?

There are many who think the mutiny on the Potemkin influenced Tsar Nicholas II to pull out of the war with Japanese and take steps to cede some power to an elected body in the Duma. He was pretty much forced to admit that he couldn't control his military and didn't know who could be trusted.

This is probably a similar situation. Putin knows he can't entirely control his military, and there are going to be trust issues. All it takes is the wrong general getting opportunistic and trying their own rebellion or martyring Prigozhin and setting off another rebellion for him to either lose power or lose critical assets that cripple their efforts in Ukraine. Prigozhin's rebellion didn't destroy a lot of stuff, but what it did destroy was irreplaceable and critical equipment. They took out one of their own C2 nodes and 2-3 EW helicopters, neither of which they have many of. Hell, they've probably lost about 30% of their inventory of those EW Mi-8's. That's pretty serious capability degradation there.

Ultimately it is up to Ukraine to decide whether the operational advantages of cluster munitions are worth adding more submunition duds to a countryside already littered with tens of thousands of unmarked Russian duds and land mines.

Is creating a slightly more hazardous landscape that already needs a massive post-war cleanup effort an acceptable price to pay for a weapon than may prove key to keeping its freedom and regaining its sovereignty?

It's a tough decision, but it's their country and their call.

I'd also point out that we are cherry-picking thru our vast DPICM stockpile and sending shells with the lowest dud rate.

"The Biden administration is planning to send Kyiv newer variants that have a 2.35 percent failure rate, or below, based on test data as recent as 2020, Ryder said. "We are aware of reports out there from several decades ago that indicate that certain 155-mm DPICMs have higher dud rates, so we would be carefully selecting rounds with lower dud rates," the one-star general added."

BREAKING: US formally announces new security package for #Ukraine

It includes "highly effective & reliable dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM)" aka cluster munitions, for 155mm artillery rounds & 105 mm artillery rounds

Also another 64 armored vehicles pic.twitter.com/4ENlTVwYmq

— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) July 7, 2023

NATO announced a multiyear aid package for Ukraine and other initiatives.

"The Summit will also see three regional defense plans formalized. Those will cover the North Atlantic and Arctic; the Baltics and Central Europe; and the Mediterranean and Black Sea. In support of the plans NATO will put 300,000 troops on high readiness, largely based around air and naval "combat power" added Stoltenberg. NATO leaders are also set to approve a Defense Production Action Plan aimed at aggregating demand, boosting weapons production capacity and increasing interoperability among partner nations."

NATO

37 tow, haul, and recovery vehicles are badly needed.

And for those who are against cluster munitions, go put your head in the sand. It is not illegal in Ukraine, Russia, or the USA and the USA used thousands as recently as Afghanistan. Plus as others stated the entire Ukraine countryside is mined now. And the Russia dud rate on standard munitions is likely close to the dud rate on the cluster bombs

31 155MM Artillery. This is huge and should have been send a long time ago. Orynx is reporting 53 of the original 80 or so previously delivered. Of the remaining who knows what shape their in or if barrel retrofits were provided. This is key on an active battlefront of 850 KM.

I hope some of the HIMAR munitions are clusters as well.

There is a reason why Prigozhin is still alive--for now--he is indispensable to Putin as Wagner is active in Syria, Libya, Sudan, [the Central African Republic], and Mali and his operations there are necessary for Putin's larger geopolitical calculus. https://t.co/MyJKX5JTPe

— Theresa Fallon (@TheresaAFallon) July 7, 2023

More on what DPICM brings to the fight in Ukraine and other notes from the frontlines.

Today's SITREP.

Following bad losses from Ukraine's counteroffensive at Novodarivka in Zaporizhya (just 40 remain of their 106-man company), Russia's 394th Regiment troops refuse orders to be sent back to the Novodarivka area with no artillery support or heavy equipment

They complain in a video…

— 🇺🇦Ukraine Resists Russian Genocide... Yeah Again (@ArmedMaidan) July 7, 2023

Could these cluster munitions also be used to clear a minefield?

SamHou said:

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Could these cluster munitions also be used to clear a minefield?

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Not sure about that but the Ukraines wanted the actual bomblets inside the cluster munitions so they could drop them from the drones .. I think they are stronger munitions than what they are using now and of course they are readily available w all the cluster bombs the US has .. I'm sure they will use these cluster bomblets in this fashion

SamHou said:

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Could these cluster munitions also be used to clear a minefield?

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Unlikely to be widely effective. I don't think they create enough overpressure.

ISW also adds on their website commentary ... "Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a gradual effort to systematically degrade Russian combat power in southern Ukraine over time, increasing the brittleness of the Russian defenses."

The deployment of almost the entirety of the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces and extensive Southern Military District elements to the frontline in southern Ukraine suggests that Russian defenses in southern Ukraine may be brittle. pic.twitter.com/qPCziIWKzb

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 8, 2023

Anti-Putin partisan groups planning more attacks inside Russia. Unlikely to be much of a military threat, but certainly a serious distraction at a time when Russia is very stretched.

RAIDS

2/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on July 7 that Ukrainian forces advanced more than 1km on the southern flank of #Bakhmut, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops attacked Russian positions southwest and northwest of Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/StwH4vDrAj

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 9, 2023

4/ Ukrainian military sources confirmed that UKR forces are continuing offensive operations in the Berdyansk (western #Donetsk-eastern #Zaporizhia Oblast) & #Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions and are having partial success in unspecified areas of these directions. pic.twitter.com/lDT1CFGiOX

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 9, 2023

Zelensky visits Snake Island to mark 500 bloody days of war.

Today's SITREP.

500 days of full-scale war and unwavering fighting for life. Thousands of human tragedies and millions of brave hearts beating as one. Over 27,000 of air raid alerts, 1,600 settlements liberated and one day closer. Closer to victory over the aggressor, Russia. pic.twitter.com/LK95XBv91n

— UNITED24.media (@United24media) July 8, 2023

"Russia has previously denied using cluster munitions in Ukraine and insisted that Russian forces have only struck military targets."

If their lips are moving....... EVIDENCE

This is the sort of misinformation on Ukraine a certain drive-by poster enjoys planting here. "Some of the most widely shared examples can be found on Twitter, posted by subscribers with a blue tick, who pay for their content to be promoted to other users."

BLUE

JFABNRGR said:

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31 155MM Artillery. This is huge and should have been send a long time ago. Orynx is reporting 53 of the original 80 or so previously delivered. Of the remaining who knows what shape their in or if barrel retrofits were provided. This is key on an active battlefront of 850 KM.

I hope some of the HIMAR munitions are clusters as well.

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Here's the updated official fact sheet listing US security assistance to Ukraine to date. Only missing are F-16s, ATACMS and a partridge in a pear tree.

STUFF

Quote:

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Explosions reported at Russian base north to Melitopol

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/9-july-explosions-reported-at-russian-base-north-to-melitopol