Rossticus said:

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GeoConfirmed UKR [CO].

It was noted that Ukraine is stepping up in the destruction of Russian artillery (Field and AA).
This is also visible on our map (Use the filter).
These are all the geolocated hit/destroyed -visually confirmed- Russian artillery assets in the last month.… pic.twitter.com/rKqfVyvDPE

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) July 4, 2023

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Its been interesting to see HIMARS used more frequently for targeting individual pieces of armor. I suspect they have enough munitions now (with promises for more) and are doing this in places to shape the battlefield for assault operations.

Waffledynamics said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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They need to quit fighting these front line trenched isolated Russian units and bypass them. Leave some small rear units to watch them and just wait for them to surrender once they get hungry from lack of food. They're not in any way equipped to counterattack or conduct a mobile operation so just cut them off by getting around and past them and attacking their logistics support.

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From my understanding, it seems this is what they're doing around Bakhmut. Taking Klischiyivka would cut a supply route.

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and getting further east to Optyne would be even better to cut the main supply routes and encircle Bakhmut from the south while the northern pincers is making progress

MouthBQ98 said:

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They need to quit fighting these front line trenched isolated Russian units and bypass them. Leave some small rear units to watch them and just wait for them to surrender once they get hungry from lack of food. They're not in any way equipped to counterattack or conduct a mobile operation so just cut them off by getting around and past them and attacking their logistics support.

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They are having so much success at doing this with Small Unit Tactics while losing less pieces of armor. They also don't have a safe way to support logistically any deep salients. Fuel alone is likely hard to resupply at the FLOT let alone beyond it. The gist of their air cover and air support is a DJI drone with a 30 min flight time, a few klic range, and a payload of a couple grenades.

Also not hardly discussed on here is the amount of HUMINT potentially gained by taking the trenches one at a time. Slow going but to know where the mines, the ammo, C&C, and Support guns are located are quite valuable.

FWIW I am not disagreeing at all with the bypassing defenses in strategy.

Good points. The slow forward progress with numerous small infantry battles would seem to favor the defender strongly but there are times it is the best thing.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Good points. The slow forward progress with numerous small infantry battles would seem to favor the defender strongly but there are times it is the best thing.

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Trench by trench is not as awe inspiring as the blitz they made at Kharkiv at this point. But they did a lot of this for months as well to prepare that attack. It just wasn't as obvious or reported because all the disinformation pointed to Kherson.

My gut says when they make the push here, it will be very similar in violence and pace of advance. Just have to set the table first.

AgLA06 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Good points. The slow forward progress with numerous small infantry battles would seem to favor the defender strongly but there are times it is the best thing.

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Trench by trench is not as awe inspiring as the blitz they made at Kharkiv at this point. But they did a lot of this for months as well to prepare that attack. It just wasn't as obvious or reported because all the disinformation pointed to Kherson.

My gut says when they make the push here, it will be very similar in violence and pace of advance. Just thave to set the table first.

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Depends on how quickly they can detrit the logi train for things other than fuel, ammo, etc. Those cheap loitering drones should have a super high priority on any engineering equipment they can find. Jamming makes that really hard but it can be done. If they can get past the main lines of minefields etc you'll be in better shape. Mine fields aren't hard to place but they aren't easy and every time you do so it causes problems for your own side as well. I'm watching the stuff on the Dnipro and wondering if the Ukes aren't using the same playbook they rand for the Kharkiv campaign.

AgLA06 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Good points. The slow forward progress with numerous small infantry battles would seem to favor the defender strongly but there are times it is the best thing.

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Trench by trench is not as awe inspiring as the blitz they made at Kharkiv at this point. But they did a lot of this for months as well to prepare that attack. It just wasn't as obvious or reported because all the disinformation pointed to Kherson.

My gut says when they make the push here, it will be very similar in violence and pace of advance. Just thave to set the table first.

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Exactly. A big part of why the orc troops in Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Izium, etc. turned and ran so quickly last time was that they were undersupplied, hungry, and running out of ammo because of the logistics strikes made to prepare the way for the offensive. When they became worried they were getting flanked or surrounded, they turned and ran because they knew they weren't equipped to fight their way out of their current positions if they became surrounded.

Ukraine is hitting major logistics hubs and destroying weapons stockpiles right now, and I think in time we will see the real maneuver effort begin. The attacks made so far have been a way to generate movement in the rear areas, not just from reserve formations, but also from resupply areas to help highlight where the stockpiles are.

Apologies for a repost, but since this important question keeps coming up, based on what is being reported IMO this is still a reasonable summary of the current phase of the counteroffensive:

"The offensive is still focused on attriting Russian logistics, command centers and artillery, so Ukraine doesn't need to thrust all the way to hubs like Mariupol and Melitopol in the near term, just get close enough to place them under fire.

Getting close enough to hit such hubs and the LOCs running from them is an important step towards starving the Russian force in the south of the high resupply volume needed to service its usual prolific munitions expenditures--particularly artillery fires.

The slow, broad-front Ukranian advance compliments this preparatory interdiction campaign and is intended, amongst other things, to keep as many Russians as possible in contact and steadily consuming their forward stockpiles of increasingly hard to get munitions.

Meanwhile, it appears that Ukraine's primary mechanized force is being held in reserve until sufficient Russian weakness develops to make a concentrated assault or wider flanking movement feasible.

Will this approach succeed? I have no particular insight, but the strategy seems a good ends-ways-means fit for Ukrainian strengths and Russian weaknesses."

Rossticus said:

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Spectacular drone footage of the Russian ammunition depot which got eliminated yesterday night. You can clearly see the missiles of MLRS and the amount of them is breathtaking.

To store so much ammunition in the center of Makiivka/Donetsk just paraphrases how little regard the… pic.twitter.com/kvWyq2sgGI

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) July 5, 2023

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I am not a drone guy but this is an interesting video especially the part loitering at night waiting for strike.

I estimate this to be 18KM from the front and should put it out of range for all of the DJI type drones.

If this is a PUMA, Scan Eagle, or something UKR homegrown with those capabilities how does it sit there and loiter and assuming its the same drone type how in the world does it do it in broad daylight?

In my limited knowledge of these types of drones they have a wingspan of 10-15' and I would have expected it to be shot down. At 2:03 in the video top of screen about 1O'clock there is a ground launched munition but I have no idea if this is ADA or not. The top of screen in the night video is almost due East and the drone is departing almost due west which should be the closest UKR held terrain.

Also of note on my GE I have a pin mark of C2 hit with HIMARS on 8-22-22 5 miles from here and another big ammo dump hit 33 miles to the east but without date. Both ammo dumps of course are within mile of rail.

If you fly high enough and quiet enough in an area not seeing much action, it may go unnoticed.

Or

SOF behind the lines with something smaller.

AgLA06 said:

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If you fly high enough and quiet enough in an area not seeing much action, it may go unnoticed.

Or

SOF behind the lines with something smaller.

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Either of these is probably right. Additionally it's harder to get local SAM coverage inside the HARM envelope. If there are confirmed HARM kills you might not have a lot of point defense AA radars up and running and operators in Crimea or Rostov aren't going to be relaying drone info locally b/c that will be harder to distinguish. At certain speeds you might also be able to disguise yourself as a bird in their system.

It's one way to turn around your declining population. That's a LOT of kids.

Claims and counterclaims about sabotaging the Zaporizhzhia nuke plant. It would be madness for Ukraine to destroy one of its primary sources of post-war electricity and potentially make a chunk of its agricultural breadbasket as uninhabitable as is the area around Chernobyl in the north. Other miscellaneous notes, too.

UPDATES

I have seen 700-900k combined people from Ukraine to Russia total, mostly in the eastern/southeastern region that were blue collar workers and engineers. Not a small number by any means and it is a way to make up for all of those working age conscript males. Plus most of those were from smaller regions with little education or skills. Russia views this as an upgrade in work force so they easily justify it

cslifer said:

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If you read the article the claim of 700k is obvious Russian BS. The US is reporting 260k, Ukraine themselves only 20k. Obviously even 20k is still terrible but in this case I would lean towards the lower numbers as being much more realistic. If the Russian claim was true that would be 20% of the children 14 and under.
To put it in perspective, it took the Nazis 2 years to deport 2 million people out of Germany to the concentration camps, and they were obviously much more organized and efficient.

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Perhaps, but I'm not sure how it would be to the Russian's advantage to inflate the number as it makes them look even more barbaric.

Thread Rollup: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1676645500781469711.html

1/ Plans to transfer the Russian Interior Ministry's GROM special forces unit to an expanded Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) are causing discontent. A commentary sheds an interesting light on the Rosgvardiya's organisational problems. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/7onhYO2Yk6

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) July 5, 2023

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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Claims and counterclaims about sabotaging the Zaporizhzhia nuke plant. It would be madness for Ukraine to destroy one of its primary sources of post-war electricity and potentially make a chunk of its agricultural breadbasket as uninhabitable as is the area around Chernobyl in the north. Other miscellaneous notes, too.

UPDATES

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It makes no sense for Ukraine to do anything to it.

It doesn't really for Russia either other than just being the psychopathic childish POS they are who would rather destroy something than lose it.

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Russia has had no problem targeting civilians in apartments & shopping areas. They would absolutely blow a nuke plant just to be *******s.

✅🇺🇦💯Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled Makiivka in the DPR. There was a big fire at the place of arrival.https://t.co/evf6gyK83O pic.twitter.com/RX5eUXibOJ

— Mr. Silence Dogwood (@eng_vp) July 5, 2023

74OA said:

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cslifer said:

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If you read the article the claim of 700k is obvious Russian BS. The US is reporting 260k, Ukraine themselves only 20k. Obviously even 20k is still terrible but in this case I would lean towards the lower numbers as being much more realistic. If the Russian claim was true that would be 20% of the children 14 and under.
To put it in perspective, it took the Nazis 2 years to deport 2 million people out of Germany to the concentration camps, and they were obviously much more organized and efficient.

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Perhaps, but I'm not sure how it would be to the Russian's advantage to inflate the number as it makes them look even more barbaric.

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They think it makes them look humanitarian

#BREAKING: US expected to announce tomorrow it will send cluster munitions to Ukraine. NPR pic.twitter.com/UMKN1BAeNz

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) July 5, 2023

Quote:

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Several Kaliber missiles were launched from the Black Sea

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-july-several-kaliber-missiles-were-launched-from-the-black

Air defense active during this ongoing attack.

A train transferring old Russian tanks was noticed in Voronezh - judging by the comments of the locals, even they realise what sort of old stuff Russia has to resort to. pic.twitter.com/XJc4b4dlU0

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 5, 2023

The Russians are using a lot of the older tanks (which use a smaller main gun and have mountains of old (sometimes really really old) shells) as replacements for artillery pieces they've lost or can't repair (gun tunes, breeches, etc.). They have to get in a bit closer than real arty but they're mobile so it's a trade off.

"Old as mammoth crap" is a new one. I like it.

They use them as mobile pillboxes and for indirect fires. They're not going to try to get into any kind of armor battle. It does show how they're being forced to get creative though.

I usually don’t tweet war videos anymore, but this one of a 🇷🇺 ammo depot himars’ed in the occupied #Makiivka is a remarkable one.#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/3h2UrK9fZs

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) July 5, 2023

Russia attacks far western Ukrainian city of Lviv and other notes.

UPDATES
ZAPORIZHZHIA

80th Assault Brigade

hopefully they will get to liberate Bakhmut soon

With the Ukrainian Army

74OA said:

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Russia attacks far western Ukrainian city of Lviv and other notes.

UPDATES
ZAPORIZHZHIA

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More terrorism by RuZZia.

Quote:

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Russian artillery shelled the Odnorobivka railway station in the Zolochiv community in the Kharkiv region - a direct hit completely destroyed the station

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/6-july-russian-artillery-shelled-the-odnorobivka-railway