shiftyandquick said:

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74OA said:

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Another look at the effects inside Russia from the Wagner mutiny. If the analysis of the vast majority of commentators is correct about the negative impact on Putin's credibility, no way he deliberately staged something so damaging to himself.

MYTH

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we often forget that what Putin does is not to influence us. It's to influence the people that sustain his power (Russians).

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Then it was a double fail because the mutiny negatively influenced both our and his own people's view of him.

74OA said:

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Apparently Russian SAMs are having a tough time dealing with Storm Shadow.

Today's SITREP.

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It seems ATACMS would exacerbate Russia's issues considering the difference in speed. Just from a quick Google search:

Storm Shadow: Mach .95 (323 m/s; 1,060 ft/s)

ATACMS: In excess of Mach 3 (0.6 mi/s; 1.0 km/s)

His Girthitude, General Milley setting expectations. NATO is expected to make a Ukraine membership invite in about 10 days ... so there's no telling what we're going to see/hear before July 11th. Including 'who-knows-what' from Russia.

ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 1, 2023

Quote:

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US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley acknowledged that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations will take longer than some Western observers had expected. Milley stated that Ukrainian forces are deliberately working through difficult minefields and advancing from 500m to 2,000m a day.[6] Milley reiterated that he expects Ukrainian counteroffensive operations to last up to 10 weeks and urged people to realize that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be a long and likely costly operation.[7] Russian sources are increasingly claiming that Ukrainian forces are currently conducting assaults in southern Ukraine with smaller infantry groups and fewer armored vehicles than during earlier counteroffensive operations.[8] Russian sources also claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting reconnaissance-in-force operations in southern Ukraine in even smaller groups, some of them allegedly with seven to nine personnel.[9] These claims about Ukrainian operations suggest that Ukrainian forces are not currently attempting the kind of large-scale operations that would result in rapid territorial advances. Ukrainian officials have routinely indicated that Ukrainian forces have yet to commit a substantial portion of their forces to counteroffensive operations and have yet to launch the main phase of the counteroffensive.[10]

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SPF250 said:

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I thought NATO would not consider a membership request from anyone in active conflict?

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Probably something like an invitation to begin the process of joining NATO.

Ulysses90 said:

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Hopefully one lesson getting through is that just because you are fighting a "near peer" that it doesn't mean the war will be fought or won with standoff weapons and shaping operations. Misreading that might lead to the idea to pay for new technology through divestiture of tanks, tube artillery, and shrinking the number of trigger pullers in an infantry battalion by 15%.

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A lot of what I read makes me really question what the Marines are doing...no tanks...

benchmark said:

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His Girthitude, General Milley setting expectations. NATO is expected to make a Ukraine membership invite in about 10 days ... so there's no telling what we're going to see/hear before July 11th. Including 'who-knows-what' from Russia.

ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 1, 2023

Quote:

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US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley acknowledged that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations will take longer than some Western observers had expected. Milley stated that Ukrainian forces are deliberately working through difficult minefields and advancing from 500m to 2,000m a day.[6] Milley reiterated that he expects Ukrainian counteroffensive operations to last up to 10 weeks and urged people to realize that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be a long and likely costly operation.[7] Russian sources are increasingly claiming that Ukrainian forces are currently conducting assaults in southern Ukraine with smaller infantry groups and fewer armored vehicles than during earlier counteroffensive operations.[8] Russian sources also claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting reconnaissance-in-force operations in southern Ukraine in even smaller groups, some of them allegedly with seven to nine personnel.[9] These claims about Ukrainian operations suggest that Ukrainian forces are not currently attempting the kind of large-scale operations that would result in rapid territorial advances. Ukrainian officials have routinely indicated that Ukrainian forces have yet to commit a substantial portion of their forces to counteroffensive operations and have yet to launch the main phase of the counteroffensive.[10]

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Where does it say that in this report? It's long so maybe I missed it.

I

benchmark said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Probably not something publicly available, but I would venture a guess that it has to do with EW, drones, and fighting without air superiority. Probably also thoughts on use of autonomous systems in highly contested areas.

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For sure. Our SHORAD capabilities are questionable. No problem with air superiority ... but that's not guaranteed in all peer-to-peer scenarios.

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Not an area I have any expertise in (SHORAD)...who currently deploys the best system/tactics for this? One of these articles indicates the RU are having significant challenges in this area.

That's one old looking rifle in the first part of the video. Also, there seems to be some footage of medics treating a wound.

Link because it's considered NSFW

YouBet said:

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Where does it say that in this report? It's long so maybe I missed it.

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Not ISW. Most of the NATO/Ukraine chatter is coming from the Europeans and (obviously) Ukraine. A few recent links.

Reuters
UPI
Council on Foreign Affairs

I feel like I coulda told you this. pic.twitter.com/kCiOBPtPQl

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) July 2, 2023

Putin won't make a deal
Hard to guess what the deal will look like not knowing who will be heading the Russian federation

Waffledynamics said:

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That's one old looking rifle in the first part of the video. Also, there seems to be some footage of medics treating a wound.

Link because it's considered NSFW

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The rifle looks like a K98 Mauser. The bolt is an exact match for mine. The trigger guard in front is different, but the back sight also looks like a K98. It would be left over as a Russian capture from WW2. Throw a scope on it and it would make a decent sniper rifle. You can still buy one direct from Mauser set up for hunting for $10-20k.

First drone strike on Kiev in 12 days and other miscellaneous notes.

STRIKE

Very good read on how Wagner operates. Apparently, its various enterprises are financed by skimming off the top of its massive catering contract with the Russian military. Mercs are just one small part of it all.

"By Putin's own admission, Prigozhin's catering business was paid at least $1 billion last year through government-awarded contracts to feed tens of thousands of soldiers on the front line in Ukraine. These catering contracts have been the Russian state's main vehicle of financing Prigozhin and his dealings.

Prigozhin's main company, Concord, and subsidiary companies provided food and other services, almost certainly at an inflated price, and then used the overflow revenue to finance unofficial endeavors, including the mercenary group.

Concord runs a group of companies that has been providing food for the servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces since 2006," Prigozhin wrote in a June letter to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. "The revenue received from these companies is then used to finance the projects in Africa, Syria, and other countries, where the expenses for advancing the interests of the Russian state as of May 2023 amounted to 147 billion rubles [about $1.7 billion]."

GRAFT

Sq 17 said:

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Putin won't make a deal
Hard to guess what the deal will look like not knowing who will be heading the Russian federation

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Zelensky won't either....at least until / if the West stops funding him.

From WSJ:

Quote:

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[Zelensky]: there is no chance of reaching a deal with Putin, a compromise to end the war, so the world should instead seek to isolate him.

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Blackbeard94 said:

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Russia keeps nothing. They are the aggressor and committed war crimes. Drive them out, or they may leave on their own. NATO supports Ukraine as long as they wish to fight, then they join NATO if they wish

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If this ends in Ukraine joining NATO, what's less risky for NATO? Funding billions until Russia is pushed out or allowing Russia to keep Ukraine land and be closer and another war?

More insight on Wagner as a front for the Kremlin.

"The important fact: the Russian mercenaries do not care about the profit at all, they play a political role as the Kremlin's proxy, it is not the business."

Rather than seeking to profit off raw materials, Wagner's co-optation of mining concerns and other major industries of the African countries where it operates is about controlling that economy and shaping the government's decision-making to their advantage, a form of political co-optation called state capture.

"It's always been a political tool primarily and it's always been a means to co-opt and effectively gain state capture over isolated regimes that are dependent on an external force," Joseph Siegle, director of the Africa Center for Strategic studies told Vox. Wagner as a proxy for the Russian state can deeply embed itself into countries like Mali, CAR, and Sudan where the leadership is unstable or nonexistent, and as those countries are further isolated, they increasingly rely on Wagner and Russia, Siegle said."

REAVERS

North of Orikhovo-Vasylivka we see heavy shelling moving southeast. If you remember, this forest here is where a Russian tank yoloed into like 5 mines the other day. pic.twitter.com/OnMcDEwuXf

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) July 2, 2023

Berkhivka is North of Bahmut, between the city and Krasna Hora.

benchmark said:

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His Girthitude, General Milley setting expectations. NATO is expected to make a Ukraine membership invite in about 10 days ... so there's no telling what we're going to see/hear before July 11th. Including 'who-knows-what' from Russia.

ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 1, 2023

Quote:

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US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley acknowledged that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations will take longer than some Western observers had expected. Milley stated that Ukrainian forces are deliberately working through difficult minefields and advancing from 500m to 2,000m a day.[6] Milley reiterated that he expects Ukrainian counteroffensive operations to last up to 10 weeks and urged people to realize that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be a long and likely costly operation.[7] Russian sources are increasingly claiming that Ukrainian forces are currently conducting assaults in southern Ukraine with smaller infantry groups and fewer armored vehicles than during earlier counteroffensive operations.[8] Russian sources also claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting reconnaissance-in-force operations in southern Ukraine in even smaller groups, some of them allegedly with seven to nine personnel.[9] These claims about Ukrainian operations suggest that Ukrainian forces are not currently attempting the kind of large-scale operations that would result in rapid territorial advances. Ukrainian officials have routinely indicated that Ukrainian forces have yet to commit a substantial portion of their forces to counteroffensive operations and have yet to launch the main phase of the counteroffensive.[10]

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It doesn't say anything about NATO in the quote, nor does it say that anywhere in your attached link.

Jetpilot86 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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That's one old looking rifle in the first part of the video. Also, there seems to be some footage of medics treating a wound.

Link because it's considered NSFW

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The rifle looks like a K98 Mauser. The bolt is an exact match for mine. The trigger guard in front is different, but the back sight also looks like a K98. It would be left over as a Russian capture from WW2. Throw a scope on it and it would make a decent sniper rifle. You can still buy one direct from Mauser set up for hunting for $10-20k.

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That is just an old Mosin-Nagant, I believe.

74OA said:

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It doesn't say anything about NATO in the quote, nor does it say that anywhere in your attached link.

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Sorry, my first post was misleading and I tried to clarify in a later post ... but apparently, I did a poor job with that also.

benchmark said:

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SPF250 said:

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I thought NATO would not consider a membership request from anyone in active conflict?

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Probably something like an invitation to begin the process of joining NATO.

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This will never happen.

Did anyone see that video today of the Uke soldiers messing with the Mosin Nagant that they found in the Russian trenches. The were jacking with it and what I think may have been a pieced together AK.

That would be like us sending 03-a3s or Enfield rifles, old 30-06 rifles that were not any more accurate then than they are now.

The SKS is a far superior rifle compared to those old Mosins, not to mention the AK-47.But I don't think I have seen an SKS in Russian hands. Certainly seen them in Uke hands, mostly locals. I think it is a sign that they are throwing local militia guys who have had those rifles for decades into the trenches.

For some reason that and the T-54s being used as intrenched artillery blow my mind.

agsalaska said:

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Did anyone see that video today of the Uke soldiers messing with the Mosin Nagant that they found in the Russian trenches. The were jacking with it and what I think may have been a pieced together AK.

That would be like us sending 03-a3s or Enfield rifles, old 30-06 rifles that were not any more accurate then than they are now.

The SKS is a far superior rifle compared to those old Mosins, not to mention the AK-47.But I don't think I have seen an SKS in Russian hands. Certainly seen them in Uke hands, mostly locals. I think it is a sign that they are throwing local militia guys who have had those rifles for decades into the trenches.

For some reason that and the T-54s being used as intrenched artillery blow my mind.

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I think most of them are conscripts from the DNR and LNR districts. These are rated as even less important that normal Russian conscripts, if that were even possible. Early vids from the invasion had these militia units armed with Mosins with matching web gear and helmets. Those first units were butchered. I just don't see the supply situation getting any better since then, especially to the long range strikes the Ukes have been doing on the logistical points in those regions.

Still wild.

DCPD158 said:

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Seems the precision munitions might be worth their weight in gold

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They absolutely are, and therein lies a massive problem. These weapons are expensive to make and field. Maybe if larger production runs are finally initiated, costs will go down. For now though, limited availability will always be a massive concern. We see this first hand with the Javelins. We gave a bunch to Ukraine at the outset and they wreaked havoc on the Russian armor. I would even go so far as to say it was decisive in the first critical weeks. But we could only give so many and it is extremely likely the Ukes have expended the vast majority of them. Russian tanks now have a much better chance to close with and do a lot of damage where before they would have been picked off a km away. This is what we are seeing with current combat videos.

One of the areas where this war has exposed our own weaknesses is our own procurement cycles in numbers and timing. Frankly, we are underequipped to fight a stand up fight with a country like Russia that can absorb losses in numbers we have not seen since Korea. Same with pretty much every NATO entity. Thankfully, most have taken that slap across the face and are starting to rectify that issue. Yes, the MIC will get paid, but our own stocks will be greatly enhanced and hopefully our own next war will see us properly kitted out with enough tech to not suffer undue losses while we "build-up". Something some of us here have first hand experience with.

Thread Rollup: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1675211147748712450.html

This week, Ukraine finally cleared the last Russian positions from western side of the Donets-Donbas canal.

This operation has been ongoing since May, and it’s now complete. On top of that, the 3rd Assault Brigade has already been observed to make gains on the eastern side. 2/

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) July 1, 2023

Even though the counteroffensive is slow in the south, Ukraine still has a lot of forces and equipment left. Many scenarios are possible.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup keeps monitoring the situation. Our interactive map can be found here. 10/10https://t.co/B0lxYD4gFv

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) July 1, 2023

This War resembles more of the WWI stalemate than the quick thrusts of WWII. I had hoped to see more movement of the battle lines favoring the Ukrainians by now as I just don't think time is on their side.