***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,541,747 Views | 47724 Replies | Last: 13 min ago by Ag with kids
aezmvp
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AgLA06 said:

74OA said:

Poland providing an additional 60 PT-91 tanks (upgraded T-72) to Ukraine.

"This recent tank donation adds to the previous deliveries, which already include over 250 T-72M and T-72M1(R) tanks, 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, and 60 PT-91s tanks."

TANKS
I'm glad Poland and other similarly geographically positioned countries are stepping up and doing all they can in this war. It felt like many of these eastern European countries with the most to lose physically weren't committed over the last decade or 2.

The Switzerland is starting to rub me the wrong way. They've made an art form of playing both sides while claiming neutrality to benefit on everyone's pain.
The Baltic countries are seriously up arming. I've heard that they have sent people to Finland to go through their mobilization practices, which are world class.7
ABATTBQ11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
notex said:

PJYoung said:



190 mile range is a game changer.
I feel like this is deja vu. Storm shadow, GLMRS, Himars, Patriots, challengers, abrams, leopards, F-16's…etc.


HIMARS/GMLRS WAS a game changer. The Russians lost a lot of men and materials to them before moving a lot of their resupply depots out of range. Then Ukraine took back a lot of territory in the east and around Kherson.

Not sure if GLSDB has been delivered yet. Abrams have not, and F-16's are still just in discussion. I don't think anyone called leopards game changers. Certainly upgrades, but not game changers. Especially in the numbers they were getting. Storm shadow is also in limited numbers, but making a big difference in places.

ATACMS would be a big deal because they don't have anything with that kind of range, and it threatens a lot of strategic targets that Russia has so far taken for granted. Pretty much anything in Russian held territory could be hit.
AgLA06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Something I haven't seen discussed is how susceptible to SAM / AA / air defenses are ATACMS?

While it may just be assumption, it appears HIMARS (smaller, faster, and more in a launcher) is getting through air defenses pretty well or can at least easily overwhelm them with 2 or 3 launchers.

While it would remove the threat to a pilot, can Russia just shoot down ATACMs with S400 and other newer SAM systems?
Gordo14
How long do you want to ignore this user?
74OA
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AgLA06 said:

Something I haven't seen discussed is how susceptible to SAM / AA / air defenses are ATACMS?

While it may just be assumptino, it appears HIMARS (smaller, faster, and more in a launcher) is getting through air defenses pretty well or can at least easily overwhelm them with 2 or 3 launchers.

While it would remove the threat to a pilot, can Russia just shoot down ATACMs with S400 and other newer SAM systems?
Theoretically, yes they can. But with its high accuracy, long range and large warhead it only takes one ATACMS to get through and make a mess. Despite its vulnerability, it would still be a valuable weapon to threaten strategic targets, not the least of which would be the Kerch Bridge, and may compel the Russians to move their logistics depots and assembly areas even further east.
SouthTex99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AgLA06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Gordo14 said:


AKA, they were getting paid from Wagner assets for information, political / military pull, equipment, and ammo.

Assuming the FSB didn't fabricate it. Either or both are just as likely since corruption is the norm over there. Wonder how many FSB agents sanitized their name and other agents name off the list.
AgLA06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Abrams arrived in Poland this week.

No one is commenting if they actually stay in Poland or have other planned uses. Especially with 1,000 South Korean tanks on order in addition to the 250ish Abrams they have on order / are receiving.
USAFAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
While Russia says the S400 has an ABM capability, when have Russian high tech systems worked as well as claimed? Triple A, aircraft intercept and other non-ABM capable systems would just be pure luck. Also, if not mistaken, ATACMS is capable of a manuvering flight path making intercept much harder.
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
JFABNRGR said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

P.U.T.U said:

Western countries aim to use a zero civilian loss planning while the Russians believe any citizens that die are just casualties of war. They never have had the same value of life as almost the rest of the world.

But yeah the evidence does show western troops were there.


No one has denied that there are Western volunteers in Ukraine. It's been stated many times. That said, I watched some of that video and what was pointed out was circumstantial or fallacious evidence at best that they were there specifically. For example, the tweet with the supposedly SOF vehicles being parked there as evidence that troops were there. Part of it was, "Don't day they were parked there afterwards because they're dirty, and that's evidence they were there before the strike." That ignores the fact that vehicles can get dirty in lots of ways, and a SOF vehicle in theater is probably going to be dirty all the time. It also ignores the high probability that those vehicles would have been heavily damaged or destroyed by the strike. If a ballistic missile just landed near them, why aren't the windows blown out?
I think we have beat this topic too much nor do I understand what it matters if it was a random hit on civilian structure or if it was targeting western soldiers. The loss of life is horrible whether its 14 year old girls like my own ,fellow brothers in arms, or a combination thereof.

You may have missed in the video, two different soldiers in the response calling out that there are many soldiers buried under the rubble, or the batt boy tattoos, or simply the significant number of Goonba's on scene taking care of their own. Also did this target require a spotter or could russia just have gone to google earth and picked out hundreds of other civilian structures. Yes still circumstantial but not likely fallacious.....way too many coincidences.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
agent-maroon
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
If this is anywhere close to true, then Sergey Surovikin either died a horrible death or is actively engaged in the process as you read that tweet.

Not that this is undeserved or should bother anyone in the least. Ghosts of Aleppo with the shout out.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
AgLA06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
PlaneCrashGuy said:

JFABNRGR said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

P.U.T.U said:

Western countries aim to use a zero civilian loss planning while the Russians believe any citizens that die are just casualties of war. They never have had the same value of life as almost the rest of the world.

But yeah the evidence does show western troops were there.


No one has denied that there are Western volunteers in Ukraine. It's been stated many times. That said, I watched some of that video and what was pointed out was circumstantial or fallacious evidence at best that they were there specifically. For example, the tweet with the supposedly SOF vehicles being parked there as evidence that troops were there. Part of it was, "Don't day they were parked there afterwards because they're dirty, and that's evidence they were there before the strike." That ignores the fact that vehicles can get dirty in lots of ways, and a SOF vehicle in theater is probably going to be dirty all the time. It also ignores the high probability that those vehicles would have been heavily damaged or destroyed by the strike. If a ballistic missile just landed near them, why aren't the windows blown out?
I think we have beat this topic too much nor do I understand what it matters if it was a random hit on civilian structure or if it was targeting western soldiers. The loss of life is horrible whether its 14 year old girls like my own ,fellow brothers in arms, or a combination thereof.

You may have missed in the video, two different soldiers in the response calling out that there are many soldiers buried under the rubble, or the batt boy tattoos, or simply the significant number of Goonba's on scene taking care of their own. Also did this target require a spotter or could russia just have gone to google earth and picked out hundreds of other civilian structures. Yes still circumstantial but not likely fallacious.....way too many coincidences.

So you're cool with the Ukes hitting Russian shopping malls, gas stations, restaurants and killing civilians as long as Russian soldiers shop there, correct?
P.U.T.U
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
While ATACMS are larger so therefore having a larger target area they are faster than HIMARs. Russia already has issues hitting HIMARs since most of their anti-missile systems where not designed to shoot down missiles, they were designed to shoot down aircraft. ATACMS should have a higher hit rate and with the larger warhead can cause more damages to structures like buildings and bridges.
txags92
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AgLA06 said:

Gordo14 said:


AKA, they were getting paid from Wagner assets for information, political / military pull, equipment, and ammo.

Assuming the FSB didn't fabricate it. Either or both are just as likely since corruption is the norm over there. Wonder how many FSB agents sanitized their name and other agents name off the list.
What if Prigo fabricated it and left the info in the office they knew FSB would raid? Easy way to get rid of the guys who you felt backstabbed you...
agent-maroon
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

What if Prigo fabricated it and left the info in the office they knew FSB would raid? Easy way to get rid of the guys who you felt backstabbed you...
They really did it or the FBI/CIA/Prigo/Jack Ryan/whoever arranged for this to go down wouldn't change anything for me. The world's a better place without any of these civilian targeting *******s IMO
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
74OA
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Growing chatter about ATACMS and cluster munitions moving closer to approval.

Today's SITREP.
Not a Bot
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The reason the US is hesitant to deliver these systems isn't fear of escalation. They have limited numbers in stock and would be needed if a hot war broke out which directly involved the US. Production of it's replacement (the PrSM) is ramping up but not to the point where the US could stand to give away a ton of the ATACMS just yet.

Here's an article talking about the next system: ATACMS replacement ready soon.

Quote:


PrSM, which is primarily intended to replace the Army's existing Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missile, is the lower end of a three-tier future missile force the service is planning to field in the next few years. The middle tier role will be filled by Typhon, also described as a "Mid-Range Capability" system, which will be capable of firing ground-launched examples of the U.S. Navy's SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles, as you can read more about here. The Dark Eagle Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), which you can find out more about here, will form the upper end of these missile capabilities. The Army views these missiles, collectively, as critical to its ability to fight and win future high-end conflicts against near-peer adversaries, such as China or Russia.
AgBank
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I would love to see the rate of how many are shot down. Storm shadows as well.
sclaff
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Now for something completely different…

txags92
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
agent-maroon said:

Quote:

What if Prigo fabricated it and left the info in the office they knew FSB would raid? Easy way to get rid of the guys who you felt backstabbed you...
They really did it or the FBI/CIA/Prigo/Jack Ryan/whoever arranged for this to go down wouldn't change anything for me. The world's a better place without any of these civilian targeting *******s IMO
Oh I wasn't upset either way. I was just thinking it would be a very effective way for Prigo to get the orcs to do his dirty work and eliminate a bunch of folks he might have been pissed at while letting him walk away to live in Belarus.
agent-maroon
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Agreed. Wasn't trying to imply that there was anything wrong with that and it probably didn't come across that way. My only regret is that Prigo walks away unharmed. For the present time, anyways.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
deddog
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Gordo14 said:



Great tactics here. Bakhmut area


Did they miss with the initial mine clearing ordinance? It's great to see them using that line charge though

Also , I understand why the troops debus, but why do the BMPs withdraw leaving the troops to fight at the most critical time. seems like they could lead and provide firepower. Are the afraid of mines? Or are too exposed? I've seen this tactic on most assault videos
deddog
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
SouthTex99 said:

A secret VIP member? I think they mean he steered contracts and shared the bounty.

Or the CIA is trying to get him executed
LMCane
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AgLA06 said:

LMCane said:


Eexcept for the fact they have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.


With a microphone in their face and being forced to go on the record for a Moscow state newspaper only 16% of Russians were willing to show any support for Nukes.

And some Americans wet the bed over it.
I'm not sure you were reading what I was responding to.

those professing a desire to SEE RUSSIA BROKEN UP.

not that I worry about Putin firing a nuke at DC

but if Russia begins to disintegrate- there are thousands of nukes out there with no one in control of them. that was what I wrote.
LMCane
How long do you want to ignore this user?
deddog said:

Gordo14 said:



Great tactics here. Bakhmut area


Did they miss with the initial mine clearing ordinance? It's great to see them using that line charge though

Also , I understand why the troops debus, but why do the BMPs withdraw leaving the troops to fight at the most critical time. seems like they could lead and provide firepower. Are the afraid of mines? Or are too exposed? I've seen this tactic on most assault videos
From listening to Uke commentators-

this is a tactic designed to protect their IFVs from shoulder launched munitions coming out of the Russkie trenches

and even more importantly protect the armor from the KA-52 attack helicopters which have a greater killing range than anything the Ukes can use to shoot them down.

also gets them out of the range of the Russian artillery kill boxes.
2wealfth Man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG


They don't seem to have stopping the fighting and going home as an option in their minds. The whole video seems weird as I reflect on it.
FIDO95
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG

"Did they miss with the initial mine clearing ordinance? It's great to see them using that line charge though"


My understanding from a commentary on the assault was that they made 4-5 "paths" to create confusion among the Russians. If they only had one path, the Russians would know where to train their artillery and firepower. They then pick one through which to advance quickly before artillery has a chance to adjust.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
P.U.T.U
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Oof, glad to live in the USA, more specifically Texas, looking at the choices over there.

In the US the media would parade the wifes and families in front of the media. In Russia they hide them or tell them they should be proud their husbands sacrificed for mother Russia. Was joking above but if you were born in the USA you won the lottery on freedom and opportunity.
bonfarr
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
P.U.T.U said:

Oof, glad to live in the USA, more specifically Texas, looking at the choices over there.

In the US the media would parade the wifes and families in front of the media. In Russia they hide them or tell them they should be proud their husbands sacrificed for mother Russia. Was joking above but if you were born in the USA you won the lottery on freedom and opportunity.


There are a lot of smoking hot women in Russia, don't let that Motley Crew give you the wrong idea.
SmallBusiness
How long do you want to ignore this user?
2wealfth Man said:



They don't seem to have stopping the fighting and going home as an option in their minds. The whole video seems weird as I reflect on it.
Historically, the poor in Russia have always desired to circumvent their immediate lord / leader to reach out to the Tzar / Stallin etc. to let them know of their living conditions, or how bad things are for their troops. Their assumption is that the Tzar would save them if he only knew.

In the US, we appeal to the media / masses to tell them how poorly equipped our soldiers are (e.g., body armor etc.). Our politicians get the push indirectly.
trip
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
LMCane said:

deddog said:

Gordo14 said:



Great tactics here. Bakhmut area


Did they miss with the initial mine clearing ordinance? It's great to see them using that line charge though

Also , I understand why the troops debus, but why do the BMPs withdraw leaving the troops to fight at the most critical time. seems like they could lead and provide firepower. Are the afraid of mines? Or are too exposed? I've seen this tactic on most assault videos
From listening to Uke commentators-

this is a tactic designed to protect their IFVs from shoulder launched munitions coming out of the Russkie trenches

and even more importantly protect the armor from the KA-52 attack helicopters which have a greater killing range than anything the Ukes can use to shoot them down.

also gets them out of the range of the Russian artillery kill boxes.
One of the youtube commentators said they shot 3 lines to keep the Russians guessing on which line they will take to the target. They can't shift to where they clear till the armor starts rolling down one of the cleared lines. also can't dial in artillery.

0:10 they shoot the center
0:36 they shoot the right
don't see the left lane cleared.
they chose center at 1:00.
Waffledynamics
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

Ukrainian Defense forces have partial success in advance at Levadne Pryutne, Mala Tokmachka - Ocheretuvate, Pryvillya - Zaliznyanske


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/30-june-ukrainian-defense-forces-have-partial-success-in

Can't post a map screenshot right now. If the post is accurate, that's one hell of a thrust south that Ukraine may be doing.
SouthTex99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Gradaggie05
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
To provide some perspective on the complexity level of this offensive…

This maneuver utilizes exactly two more directions than we saw under the Fran offense scheme.


AgLA06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
If that's correct, they just drove 1/4 of the way to the Sea of Azov.

First Page Last Page
Page 1130 of 1364
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.