Ok gotcha .. their defenses go much further than the Jdams.. sure could have them use up a bunch of air defense missiles if Ukes had something to get over to that port that wasn't too costly

Maybe these new longer range Polish missiles will do the trick ?

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Sevastopol likely has the highest concentration of SAM batteries and AA in the theatre.

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Seems like a good time to make them spend some that defense capability now; the pressure is turning up and logistics are running thin.

PJYoung said:

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#BREAKING: General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of the joint group of Russian troops in Ukraine, has been arrested. The New York Times had reported that per US intel, Surovikin had previous knowledge of the Wagner Group's planned mutiny attempt. -The Moscow Times pic.twitter.com/ScMP3FRk7b

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) June 28, 2023

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pretty sure that Surovokin is a much more effective leader and strategist than Sergei Shoigu and Gerasimov

win / win for the good guys.

Surovokin was nicknamed the Butcher for what he did to civilians in Syria. hopefully he dies from the torture he will get as part of the Wagner coup.

Can Putin's 'Butcher of Syria' save Russia from another rout?
Russia's General Sergei Surovikin is no stranger to mass murder but his brutality may not be enough to defeat Ukraine.


BY JAMIE DETTMER
OCTOBER 26, 2022 4:03 AM CET

Russia's General Sergei Surovikin is no stranger to mass murder and spreading terror.

In Chechnya, the shaven-headed veteran officer, who has the physique of a wrestler and an expression to match, vowed to "destroy three Chechen fighters for every Russian soldier killed." And he's remembered bitterly in northern Syria for reducing much of the city of Aleppo to ruins.

The 56-year-old air force general also oversaw the relentless targeting of clinics, hospitals and civilian infrastructure in rebel-held Idlib in 2019, an effort to break opponents' will and send refugees fleeing to Europe via neighboring Turkey. The 11-month campaign "showed callous disregard for the lives of the roughly 3 million civilians in the area," noted Human Rights Watch in a scathing report.

txags92 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Ag97 said:

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Here come the purges. Gonna be lots of officers eating bullets or worse in the next month. Just hope their replacements are less capable and more corrupt so the existing Russian State collapses sooner rather than later.

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Do we want a collapse? A humbling, sure, but I want someone still guarding the nukes.

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I am honestly over caring what happens to Russia, because based on what we have seen so far, I don't think they have the capabilities we have all been scared of. I hope the whole country crashes and burns and splits into 1000 little fiefdoms, with each one ruled by whoever looted the most microwave ovens and washing machines from Ukraine before the Ukes kicked their asses.

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I agree with the sentiment -and in many ways that would be best for world peace and Western interests.

except for the fact they have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.

RogerEnright said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Do we want a collapse? A humbling, sure, but I want someone still guarding the nukes.

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After Ukraine pushes Russia out, we want a functioning Russia that can help the world balance China. A healthy Russia can help create a 'Peace of Westphalia' type balance for the world.

Likely this happens without Putin, but we want a stable Russia without Crimea.

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"THINGS THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN FOR $500 ALEX"

This is the world Putin (and Xi) would give us all.

GULAG

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Ukrainian Defense Forces advancing at Rivnopil-Volodyne direction and took strategic initiative at Bakhmut axis, advancing in multiple locations

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/29-june-ukrainian-defense-forces-advancing-at-rivnopilvolodyne

This number includes three children, two born in 2008 and one in 2011. Another 60 people were injured, including an eight-month-old child.

📸 Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 29, 2023

With Prigozhin off the hook (for the moment) and most of his mercs given amnesty, now that Putin is starting to purge others who knew in advance about the mutiny or stood by while it happened it's hard to believe that the existing rift between Wagner and the regular Russian military/security services won't expand to a chasm.

PURGE

74OA said:

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With Prigozhin off the hook (for the moment) and most of his mercs given amnesty, now that Putin is starting to purge others who knew in advance about the mutiny or stood by while it happened it's hard to believe that the existing rift between Wagner and the regular Russian military/security services won't expand to a chasm.

PURGE

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We can only hope

pagerman @ work said:

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Eliminatus said:

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74OA said:

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Poland may give Ukraine the low-observable Naval Strike Missile. If so, that would effectively end Russia's naval domination of the Black Sea.

Today's SITREP.

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I am sure NATO is the only reason they haven't yet. In my limited time there and the Poles I've met in my journeys, there is an absolute loathing of Russia so normalized it is almost subconscious and shows itself in various ways you would not really think of. Which matches everything I see online as well. I know everyone looks at weapons and vehicles but Polands stepping up on both of those fronts AND humanitarian aid is outmatched to my knowledge. I am sure a lot of it, probably most of course, is because of genuine goodwill but can't help but wonder how much is to snub Russia. It's a win/win in their eyes I bet. All of those old Soviet break aways are like that and have been since the first minutes. They were nearly rabid in their condemnation and willingness to go at Russia from that first day.

They, of all others not named Ukraine, know exactly what the Russian Federation is and how it operates. Outsiders were taken aback I remember and even ridiculed it but sometimes there are just things that will never trump first hand knowledge. I am sure all of y'all at some point have had to stop explaining something to someone and just go "You won't understand. You weren't there". I know I have.

And noooow….time to go on a deep dive on the NSM. I'm familiar with the basics of it but need to see if it could be truly decisive alone unless one of y'all know for certainty it will be.

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The base I was on in Iraq was a coalition base that was primarily Polish (along with smaller contingents of Salvadorans, Ukrainians, Latvians, Estonians, Lithuanians & Mongolians). On the occasions I had to talk with the Polish troopers, they were not at all shy about how much they did not like Russia and how happy they were to be allied with America.

If I were in the Russian military the last country I would want to tangle with would be Poland. They would to a man fight the Russians with everything they had until the last ounce of strength left their bodies.

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Twenty years ago I studied for a semester in Germany. Hopped down to Rome one weekend and ran into a Polish guy at an ex-pat/English bar. He was as pro-America as anyone I have ever met. We ended up partying together that night (#nohomo).

Anyway, at some point three Brit's started making fun of him. I don't remember why. I think it was because of his very heavy accent. They kept picking at him and this little dude rose up out of his chair like a Tasmanian devil, got in their faces, and threatened to fight all of them at the same time. Scared the **** out of them and into silence. He was ferocious. I was just sitting there in awe and laughing my ass off.

No more words from them. I thought to myself that if we ever get in a scrap we want the poles on our team if they are all like this. Coincidentally, I later married a half-Polish girl and she is not one to be trifled with either which is probably why she rose as high as she did in the executive ranks.

LMCane said:

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Eexcept for the fact they have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world.

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Almost 16% of Russians support the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

The results of a poll conducted jointly by Russian Field and RTVI show that:

▪️ 73.9% of respondents consider the use of nuclear weapons "unacceptable";
▪️ 10.5% reported that nuclear weapons could be… pic.twitter.com/bgDGaP5Itw

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 29, 2023

With a microphone in their face and being forced to go on the record for a Moscow state newspaper only 16% of Russians were willing to show any support for Nukes.

And some Americans wet the bed over it.

A bunch of Ukraine related articles here: DB

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Why is it we have to publish this.

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You don't think that they already knew? Maybe their current intelligence/espionage abilities aren't up to Cold War standards, but I would be surprised if there is ever anything published that they don't already know.

JFABNRGR said:

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Why is it we have to publish this.

Why not do it in secret, deliver them in secret, get them deployed in secret and then let hell rain down on them in a big surprise while they are all grouped up. Now they will start dispersing further off the X.

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I had that question as well. It is possible that they are already on their way, already in UKR and close to launch location. If we announce it before the Russian's find the debris, it seems more above the table. Optics are better.

Artillery shells from 1939 found in a russian position pic.twitter.com/6lAyvxRzPJ

— Mr. Parrot ™ 🇺🇦 (@parrot_soldier) June 29, 2023

Gordo14 said:

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Artillery shells from 1939 found in a russian position pic.twitter.com/6lAyvxRzPJ

— Mr. Parrot ™ 🇺🇦 (@parrot_soldier) June 29, 2023

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Surprised they did not fire them in the 40's.

PJYoung said:

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📍#BREAKING: The US is close to approving Long-Range ATACMS missiles for Ukraine. -WSJhttps://t.co/4yt0n3gsRh

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) June 29, 2023

190 mile range is a game changer.

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Current orders are already in the make for Poland, Australia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Morocco.

Previous orders from 2017-2019 appear to have taken 3 years to fill, one of those Romania who ordered 54 EA of the M57 500LB warhead version. I am confident they have misplaced 8.

Given the war and additional orders I would expect LM to have been able to significantly increase production but even for a new small order would be years out given the orders already in unless they jumped to the front of the line or I suspect the the Feb 2023 order by Poland for an additional 45 M57s may have always been marked for Ukraine.

Listed in our stocks the older models of M39 and M39A1 between Army and Marines looks to be around 1500 without anyway to verify that number. These are supposed to be upgraded to M57E1 but wiki only shows one contract of 220 which has already been taken into account in the 1500 quantity.

Given this I can see Ukraine getting up to 45 M57 and as many or more of the M39/A1 as these are getting quite old at 30+ years. The M39 versions are all Anti-Personnel "cluster bombs" and differ in range. The A1 simply replaces bomblets for fuel to pick up 80 more miles of range to get out to 185.

Or none of the cluster versions or only the shorter distance M39s to 100 miles.

I wonder if the M39 versions could be used to clear mines and what that spread would look like. It would be an expensive mine clearing tool but life if precious.

Western countries aim to use a zero civilian loss planning while the Russians believe any citizens that die are just casualties of war. They never have had the same value of life as almost the rest of the world.

But yeah the evidence does show western troops were there.

P.U.T.U said:

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Western countries aim to use a zero civilian loss planning while the Russians believe any citizens that die are just casualties of war. They never have had the same value of life as almost the rest of the world.

But yeah the evidence does show western troops were there.

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No one has denied that there are Western volunteers in Ukraine. It's been stated many times. That said, I watched some of that video and what was pointed out was circumstantial or fallacious evidence at best that they were there specifically. For example, the tweet with the supposedly SOF vehicles being parked there as evidence that troops were there. Part of it was, "Don't day they were parked there afterwards because they're dirty, and that's evidence they were there before the strike." That ignores the fact that vehicles can get dirty in lots of ways, and a SOF vehicle in theater is probably going to be dirty all the time. It also ignores the high probability that those vehicles would have been heavily damaged or destroyed by the strike. If a ballistic missile just landed near them, why aren't the windows blown out?

P.U.T.U said:

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Western countries aim to use a zero civilian loss planning while the Russians believe any citizens that die are just casualties of war. They never have had the same value of life as almost the rest of the world.

But yeah the evidence does show western troops were there.

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IMPROVED statement!

Western countries aim to use a zero civilian loss planning while the Russians believe any citizens that die are just casualties of war, and often target them directly. They never have had the same value of life as almost the rest of the world.

That in a nutshell is why any claims that there "are no good sides" is ludicrous. Russians simply don't value civilian life. I suspect a lot of that is cultural ingrained by 75 years of communism putting the collective ahead of the individual

ABATTBQ11 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Western countries aim to use a zero civilian loss planning while the Russians believe any citizens that die are just casualties of war. They never have had the same value of life as almost the rest of the world.

But yeah the evidence does show western troops were there.

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No one has denied that there are Western volunteers in Ukraine. It's been stated many times. That said, I watched some of that video and what was pointed out was circumstantial or fallacious evidence at best that they were there specifically. For example, the tweet with the supposedly SOF vehicles being parked there as evidence that troops were there. Part of it was, "Don't day they were parked there afterwards because they're dirty, and that's evidence they were there before the strike." That ignores the fact that vehicles can get dirty in lots of ways, and a SOF vehicle in theater is probably going to be dirty all the time. It also ignores the high probability that those vehicles would have been heavily damaged or destroyed by the strike. If a ballistic missile just landed near them, why aren't the windows blown out?

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I watched several videos that showed before and direct after of the cafe and along both streets at the corner on Reddit.

Nothing indicated any type of military meeting or specific military group was at that cafe. There was a large number of well equipped and SOF types doing first aid and search and rescue on the scene within a couple of minutes. Most likely from nearby buildings and likely from the large hotel directly behind the cafe with lots of communication equipment on the top.

So I'm guessing the most likely scenario is there was high profile military targets nearby and Russia hit the cafe with their typical poor execution.

Or there was someone or some group specifically dining there related to some western county and instead of taking them out in a way that doesn't harm civilians, they purposefully committed a war crime. In there mind something like this creates a different result than it does. Even if they hit the top alphabet soup people in civilian clothes, it doesn't change anything. So instead of doing this professionally, they Russia it up. And as usual it will achieve the opposite result they want.

Poland providing an additional 60 PT-91 tanks (upgraded T-72) to Ukraine.

"This recent tank donation adds to the previous (Polish) deliveries, which already include over 250 T-72M and T-72M1(R) tanks, 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, and 60 PT-91s tanks."

TANKS

74OA said:

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Poland providing an additional 60 PT-91 tanks (upgraded T-72) to Ukraine.

"This recent tank donation adds to the previous deliveries, which already include over 250 T-72M and T-72M1(R) tanks, 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, and 60 PT-91s tanks."

TANKS

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I'm glad Poland and other similarly geographically positioned countries are stepping up and doing all they can in this war. It felt like many of these eastern European countries with the most to lose physically weren't committed over the last decade or 2.

The Switzerland is starting to rub me the wrong way. They've made an art form of playing both sides while claiming neutrality to benefit on everyone's pain.

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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Poland providing an additional 60 PT-91 tanks (upgraded T-72) to Ukraine.

"This recent tank donation adds to the previous deliveries, which already include over 250 T-72M and T-72M1(R) tanks, 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, and 60 PT-91s tanks."

TANKS

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I'm glad Poland and other similarly geographically positioned countries are stepping up and doing all they can in this war. It felt like many of these eastern European countries with the most to lose physically weren't committed over the last decade or 2.

The Switzerland is starting to rub me the wrong way. They've made an art form of playing both sides while claiming neutrality to benefit on everyone's pain.

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Well, the Swiss have supported all the economic sanctions against Russia, including freezing sanctioned individual's money in Swiss banks, have consistently voted against Russia in the UN and have accepted ~66,000 Ukrainian refugees, too. They also agreed to return a number of Leo 2s to Germany, which is sleight-of-hand to free up more of Germany's own Leo 2s to send to Ukraine. It's not much, but it's something.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Western countries aim to use a zero civilian loss planning while the Russians believe any citizens that die are just casualties of war. They never have had the same value of life as almost the rest of the world.

But yeah the evidence does show western troops were there.

---

No one has denied that there are Western volunteers in Ukraine. It's been stated many times. That said, I watched some of that video and what was pointed out was circumstantial or fallacious evidence at best that they were there specifically. For example, the tweet with the supposedly SOF vehicles being parked there as evidence that troops were there. Part of it was, "Don't day they were parked there afterwards because they're dirty, and that's evidence they were there before the strike." That ignores the fact that vehicles can get dirty in lots of ways, and a SOF vehicle in theater is probably going to be dirty all the time. It also ignores the high probability that those vehicles would have been heavily damaged or destroyed by the strike. If a ballistic missile just landed near them, why aren't the windows blown out?

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I think we have beat this topic too much nor do I understand what it matters if it was a random hit on civilian structure or if it was targeting western soldiers. The loss of life is horrible whether its 14 year old girls like my own ,fellow brothers in arms, or a combination thereof.

You may have missed in the video, two different soldiers in the response calling out that there are many soldiers buried under the rubble, or the batt boy tattoos, or simply the significant number of Goonba's on scene taking care of their own. Also did this target require a spotter or could russia just have gone to google earth and picked out hundreds of other civilian structures. Yes still circumstantial but not likely fallacious.....way too many coincidences.

Attached is an interesting interview with Ukraine's very well-regarded chief of defense intelligence.

TWZ: The leak of US classified documents included information that the U.S. had to talk you out of attacking Moscow on the anniversary of the all-out invasion. Did that happen?
KB: These are your leaks. Why are you asking me?

(I laughed.)

BUDANOV

PJYoung said:

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📍#BREAKING: The US is close to approving Long-Range ATACMS missiles for Ukraine. -WSJhttps://t.co/4yt0n3gsRh

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) June 29, 2023

190 mile range is a game changer.

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I feel like this is deja vu. Storm shadow, GLMRS, Himars, Patriots, challengers, abrams, leopards, F-16's…etc.