***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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PJYoung
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In reply to RogerEnright • 11:01a, 6/27/23
AG
RogerEnright said:
aezmvp said:

I also think Crimea would be a point where Putin might use nukes.
A great thing about the Prigy Freedom March is that he showed Putin will back down on his prior statements. This kills Putin's credibility as a hardliner and once again shows that he will back away from his word if stress is high enough.

I think we all underestimate how time could actually be on Ukraine's side. They just have to keep the pressure on Russia and West has to keep together. I believe the cracks in Putin's regime will help solidify the West's support.

It's starting to appear to be that way.

Which is amazing.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to PJYoung • 11:08a, 6/27/23
AG
And if you think back to the early days of the war, truly amazing.

Two things, really three. Timing of late February was not advantageous to the Russians. Elon Musk and Starlink. And the Ukes penchant for improvisation and creativity in addressing problems as they arose.

Without those?
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74OA
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:16a, 6/27/23
AG
aggiehawg said:
And if you think back to the early days of the war, truly amazing.

Two things, really three. Timing of late February was not advantageous to the Russians. Elon Musk and Starlink. And the Ukes penchant for improvisation and creativity in addressing problems as they arose.

Without those?
Most important was Zelensky's decision to stay and fight in Kiev at a time when the world expected it to be overrun in days and Biden was on the phone offering to transport him to safety out of the country.

Without his inspiring early leadership, it's very likely that having seen their government flee Ukrainians would have wilted under the initial invasion pressure and yielded to Russia.

"The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride."
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chickencoupe16
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In reply to The Fife • 11:38a, 6/27/23
AG
The Fife said:
Which of the Baltic countries would allow him through their airspace? I'm not sure he had that option.


That's a good point. I'd have been nervous the entire time.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to 74OA • 12:03p, 6/27/23
AG
74OA said:
aggiehawg said:
And if you think back to the early days of the war, truly amazing.

Two things, really three. Timing of late February was not advantageous to the Russians. Elon Musk and Starlink. And the Ukes penchant for improvisation and creativity in addressing problems as they arose.

Without those?
Most important was Zelensky's decision to stay and fight in Kiev at a time when the world expected it to be overrun in days and Biden was on the phone offering to transport him to safety out of the country.

Without his inspiring leadership, it's very likely that having seen their government flee Ukrainians would have wilted under the initial invasion pressure and yielded to Russia.

"The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride."
Good point too. Had Zelensky left, Poroshenko would have stepped in and sued for peace immediately, is my guess.
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AgLA06
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:12p, 6/27/23
AG
nortex97 said:
Faustus said:
MouthBQ98 said:
They will strain Russian logistics until they fail to resupply an area adequately for too long, then identify it through lack of defensive fires and break through it. It's pretty much a matter of time.
Calls for peace are getting a little shrill in the other thread.
LOL.



Sounds like the proxy war leadership position is a mess right now. The Ukrainians are getting desperate though, threatening the Zaph. nuke plant very directly, from shear desperation.



Go look for this video on reddit:
Quote:
UA pov: Video about how the 47th Specialized Brigade of the AFU is trying to attack in the Zaporozhye region. Explosions on anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, severed limbs and evacuation on the BMP M2A2 "Bradley".
This is the unit trained in Germany/equipped with Bradley's too, one of their very best. Horrors. That's the real tactical update today.
No it's not. It was posted yesterday and discussed at length. You'd know that if you weren't too busy trying to put together your regular Russian shill post.

I can't help at laugh at "Ukraine threatening the nuclear plant" by trying to take it back from Russian control. Yah the russians have it rigged to blow and have done everything possible to sabotage it from cutting power to the cooling facilities to stationing priority equipment inside of it so Ukraine can't hit it. But's its definitely Ukraine threatening their own nuclear power plant held hostage. Wow.
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PJYoung
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12:40p, 6/27/23
AG
It seems like every time something bad happens to Russia in this war we have an invasion of people into this thread calling for Ukraine to surrender or asking why we're helping them.
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AgLA06
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In reply to LarryElder • 12:45p, 6/27/23
AG
LarryElder said:
Gordo14 said:
PlaneCrashGuy said:
That is awful. This has to end soon.


Russia can end it by leaving whenever they want. 70% of Ukranians want to continue until they recover all their lost territory.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/403133/ukrainians-support-fighting-until-victory.aspx

Russia is the party that forced this war on Ukraine. They are in the wrong. I would love for this war to end tomorrow, but Ukraine is fighting for their existence. Russia is fighting for imperialist fantasies of a dictator. Glad you're finally acknowledging how evil Russia's actions are.
UKE will have to negotiate they cant push Russia out
"During its summer campaign, Ukraine has already liberated approximately 300 km of its territory. This is more than Russia captured during its entire winter campaign," Ben Wallace said during a speech in the House of Commons.

And the Uke offensive hasn't even fully kicked off yet.
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AgLA06
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In reply to PJYoung • 12:46p, 6/27/23
AG
PJYoung said:
It seems like every time something bad happens to Russia in this war we have an invasion of people into this thread calling for Ukraine to surrender or asking why we're helping them.
It doesn't seem. It's clockwork. New names with tinfoil hats. It's really pathetic.
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Waffledynamics
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1:49p, 6/27/23
AG
Quote:
Russian army conducted missile strike at central Kramatorsk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-russian-army-conducted-missile-strike-at-central



Quote:
Missile hit crowded cafe in central Kramatorsk, - head of regional administration
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-missile-hit-crowded-cafe-in-central-kramatorsk--head
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Gordo14
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:14p, 6/27/23
Waffledynamics said:
Quote:
Russian army conducted missile strike at central Kramatorsk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-russian-army-conducted-missile-strike-at-central



Quote:
Missile hit crowded cafe in central Kramatorsk, - head of regional administration
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-missile-hit-crowded-cafe-in-central-kramatorsk--head


Another sign of desperation. Armies in control of the situation don't resort to terror attacks, because they know that focusing on military targets is much more effective. When Russia doesn't know what to target and they feel the pressure building... That's when Russia terrorize civilians. Putin is desperate to project strength.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Gordo14 • 2:18p, 6/27/23
AG
Maybe, or they may have thought they were hitting a cache.
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txags92
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:27p, 6/27/23
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Maybe, or they may have thought they were hitting a cache.
Or maybe their guidance is just bad enough that they can't really pinpoint what they hit.
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74OA
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3:15p, 6/27/23
AG
Prigozhin arrives in Belarus and other miscellaneous notes.

"It's very likely that Prigozhin will not arrive alone, but he will bring his mercenaries, thousands of people who were participating in torture and killings of Ukrainians. And right now, together with [Belarusian ruler Alexander] Lukashenko, they can create the nuclear threat to our neighbors and to the entire continent," Viacorka said."

WAGNER
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AgLA06
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 3:24p, 6/27/23
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Maybe, or they may have thought they were hitting a cache.
Or they thought they were hitting a particular person or group dining at the restaurant or meeting above it.

We'll never know the actual target or if it was hit.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to txags92 • 4:14p, 6/27/23
AG
txags92 said:
Waffledynamics said:
Maybe, or they may have thought they were hitting a cache.
Or maybe their guidance is just bad enough that they can't really pinpoint what they hit.
It has been shown that their barrels are so worn out that their long range artillery can be off by a long ways, like miles. Oh wait not America, like kilometers
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74OA
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4:30p, 6/27/23
AG
June 27: Russian joke circulating: "All that we found out today is that if, God forbid, NATO attacks us, the most we'll be able to do is to dig holes in the asphalt and call Lukashenko"
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to PJYoung • 5:33p, 6/27/23
AG
PJYoung said:
It seems like every time something bad happens to Russia in this war we have an invasion of people into this thread calling for Ukraine to surrender or asking why we're helping them.


I don't know if it was deleted, but I saw a comment somewhere about Russia just needing to other the west because, after looking at Vietnam to Afghanistan, the poster thought our patience and commitment wears out faster the more heavily we are committed. The irony was that we don't have boots on the ground like those places and have offered purely material support. We're at the lowest level of commitment of any conflict in the last few decades, and by they're own "analysis" or patience should last longer than any of them.

With Russia continuing to lose ground and Putin's regime more divided than ever, why would we not want to continue giving material support to Ukraine?
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lb3
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6:07p, 6/27/23
AG
We've been saying it's past time to deliver ATACMS to Ukraine, but what would be wrong with delivering a dozen tomahawks and ground launch tubes to allow Ukraine to hit some Russian ammo plants?

Taking out supply depots is great but knocking out their strategic weapons production facilities could be catastrophic in the medium-long term.

I think the frog has been in the pot long enough that we can turn up the heat without too much concern about an escalating response. Russia has proven that they don't have enough backhoes to dig up all the roads between Poland and Moscow should they try to engage NATO.
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GAC06
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In reply to lb3 • 6:29p, 6/27/23
AG
lb3 said:
We've been saying it's past time to deliver ATACMS to Ukraine, but what would be wrong with delivering a dozen tomahawks and ground launch tubes to allow Ukraine to hit some Russian ammo plants?

Taking out supply depots is great but knocking out their strategic weapons production facilities could be catastrophic in the medium-long term.

I think the frog has been in the pot long enough that we can turn up the heat without too much concern about an escalating response. Russia has proven that they don't have enough backhoes to dig up all the roads between Poland and Moscow should they try to engage NATO.


I agree about ATACMS but right or wrong, we seem to only give Ukraine weapons to be used within their own borders. It's frustrating because Russia gets to launch attacks from the safety of their own turf, but that seems to be the policy for us and the rest of NATO
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Not a Bot
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6:47p, 6/27/23
AG
Repurposed SAMs. Not great accuracy but can usually get pretty close to what they want to hit.

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Not a Bot
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6:47p, 6/27/23
AG
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Not a Bot
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6:49p, 6/27/23
AG
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6:50p, 6/27/23
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Gordo14
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In reply to Not a Bot • 7:23p, 6/27/23
Not a Bot said:


This is definitely something to watch and would be straight from Kharkiv offensive style of offensive operations. Force Russia to focus on where they think you are going, make them deploy their reserves, degrade the logistics, then strike where you're least expected. If they've got the EW and air defenses there don't be surprised if they eventually deploy bridges after they secure the crossing well enough.
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Eliminatus
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7:31p, 6/27/23
AG
Found this online and was able to corroborate most of these pretty easily with other sources including Russian ones so for me calling this confirmed for now until proven otherwise.

A bad day for Russian VVS all around. These were experienced men here in a pretty damned important aircraft and their loss will be felt in that community pretty hard. And now everyone is supposed to forgive and forget? Gonna be tough sell for them. Military branches are tribal and there is already bad blood between a lot of Russian units. Fratricide has already been confirmed multiple times already and I see no reason to think that will slow down. Probably the opposite really.
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DukeMu
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In reply to 74OA • 7:42p, 6/27/23
74OA said:
aggiehawg said:
And if you think back to the early days of the war, truly amazing.

Two things, really three. Timing of late February was not advantageous to the Russians. Elon Musk and Starlink. And the Ukes penchant for improvisation and creativity in addressing problems as they arose.

Without those?
Most important was Zelensky's decision to stay and fight in Kiev at a time when the world expected it to be overrun in days and Biden was on the phone offering to transport him to safety out of the country.

Without his inspiring early leadership, it's very likely that having seen their government flee Ukrainians would have wilted under the initial invasion pressure and yielded to Russia.

"The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride."
That long line of stalled tanks on the road to Kyiv. Iconic.
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Gordo14
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7:44p, 6/27/23


Great tactics here. Bakhmut area
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agcrock2005
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In reply to Gordo14 • 8:27p, 6/27/23
AG
I could watch that stuff all day long.
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benchmark
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In reply to GAC06 • 8:54p, 6/27/23
AG
GAC06 said:
I agree about ATACMS but right or wrong, we seem to only give Ukraine weapons to be used within their own borders. It's frustrating because Russia gets to launch attacks from the safety of their own turf, but that seems to be the policy for us and the rest of NATO
Maybe ATACMS are one of the sticks we're using to keep Russia inside their lane ... i.e. no Russian attacks outside of Ukrainian borders or over international waters (Black Sea).
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74OA
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8:56p, 6/27/23
AG
US sends more Bradley's and Strykers to Ukraine and other battlefield updates.

Today's SITREP.
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9:03p, 6/27/23
AG
ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 27, 2023
Quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the Ukrainian main counteroffensive effort on June 27, possibly signaling his own defensive priority. Putin claimed that Ukraine considers the Orikhiv direction in western Zaporizhia Oblast as "the main direction of attack."[27] ISW offers no assessment of the accuracy of Putin's statement or of which sector Ukraine has prioritized or plans to prioritize as the main counteroffensive effort. Putin may have instead identified the sector of the front that he perceives as most critical to hold, however. ISW has observed the most extensive Russian defensive fortifications erected in the western Zaporizhia Oblast south of Orikhiv.
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PJYoung
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9:24p, 6/27/23
AG



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Rossticus
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1:45a, 6/28/23
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PJYoung
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6:18a, 6/28/23
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