LMCane said:

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I saw some youtube videos of the Ukes practicing riverine bridging with German floatable pontoons, some armored vehicles were on top of them

hopefully they will cross into Kherson from an undefended river position and send 300 tanks and IFVs all over the peninsula

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There is zero chance the Ukrainians are going to attempt some sort of substantive amphibious attack. That requires trained units with specific equipment/logistical/combined arms planning that is a step above/beyond what they are doing now, and frankly it is also quite often riskier.

300 tanks? C'mon, that is entirely implausible on it's own. Tanks are in short supply, presently, on both sides, as with everything else. They probably only have about 400 (or more likely 300) left.

https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/02/tanks-a-lot-well-actually-not-that-many-for-ukraine/

The article you posted ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/16/ukraine-is-going-to-run-out-of-t-64-tanks/?sh=1e0e9d9d6b69 ) was only talking about T-64's. They also had some T-80's at the start of the war and have captured some Russian tanks. Also as of a month ago Poland alone had already sent 250 T-72's with more to come.

Polish T-72 derivatives

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/14/poland-made-a-better-russian-style-tank-and-gave-it-to-ukraine/?sh=2aac00d1422e

Plus hundreds of other Soviet tanks from the Czechs and Bulgarians, Slovenians and perhaps Morocco. Then there's the western tanks.

reading comprehension:

"300 tanks and IFVs"

GAC06 said:

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The article you posted ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/16/ukraine-is-going-to-run-out-of-t-64-tanks/?sh=1e0e9d9d6b69 ) was only talking about T-64's. They also had some T-80's at the start of the war and have captured some Russian tanks. Also as of a month ago Poland alone had already sent 250 T-72's with more to come.

Polish T-72 derivatives

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/14/poland-made-a-better-russian-style-tank-and-gave-it-to-ukraine/?sh=2aac00d1422e

Plus hundreds of other Soviet tanks from the Czechs and Bulgarians

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Poland has sent at least 300 updated T-72 derivatives and the US and Netherlands recently paid Czech to refurbish another 90 T-72s for Ukraine, too. That's 390 without even counting the several hundred ex-Soviet tanks donated by other countries or Ukraine's own stock of tanks. Add in the several hundred Leopards of various vintages that are on the way and Ukraine is not short of tanks.

EDIT: Plus 550 intact abandoned Russian tanks as documented by Oryx.

74OA said:

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GAC06 said:

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The article you posted ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/16/ukraine-is-going-to-run-out-of-t-64-tanks/?sh=1e0e9d9d6b69 ) was only talking about T-64's. They also had some T-80's at the start of the war and have captured some Russian tanks. Also as of a month ago Poland alone had already sent 250 T-72's with more to come.

Polish T-72 derivatives

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/14/poland-made-a-better-russian-style-tank-and-gave-it-to-ukraine/?sh=2aac00d1422e

Plus hundreds of other Soviet tanks from the Czechs and Bulgarians

---

Poland has sent at least 300 updated T-72 derivatives and the US and Netherlands recently paid Czech to refurbish another 90 T-72s for Ukraine, too. That's 390 without even counting the several hundred ex-Soviet tanks donated by other countries or Ukraine's own stock of tanks. Add in the several hundred Leopards of various vintages that are on the way and Ukraine is not short of tanks.

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And at one point Russia was the biggest donator of main battle tanks, IFV, and APCs to Ukraine even with all this stuff.

Russia's offensive may be approaching its culmination without achieving anything worth the vast expenditure of men and materiel.

ISW

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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GAC06 said:

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The article you posted ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/16/ukraine-is-going-to-run-out-of-t-64-tanks/?sh=1e0e9d9d6b69 ) was only talking about T-64's. They also had some T-80's at the start of the war and have captured some Russian tanks. Also as of a month ago Poland alone had already sent 250 T-72's with more to come.

Polish T-72 derivatives

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/14/poland-made-a-better-russian-style-tank-and-gave-it-to-ukraine/?sh=2aac00d1422e

Plus hundreds of other Soviet tanks from the Czechs and Bulgarians

---

Poland has sent at least 300 updated T-72 derivatives and the US and Netherlands recently paid Czech to refurbish another 90 T-72s for Ukraine, too. That's 390 without even counting the several hundred ex-Soviet tanks donated by other countries or Ukraine's own stock of tanks. Add in the several hundred Leopards of various vintages that are on the way and Ukraine is not short of tanks.

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And at one point Russia was the biggest donator of main battle tanks, IFV, and APCs to Ukraine even with all this stuff.

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Forgot about that. Oryx has documented 550 Russian tanks captured intact.

Not a Bot said:

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It appears from the Video that the Lancet set off the RM-70s Munitions which caused the Large Explosion.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 20, 2023

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Looked up the system, a lot like the Switchblade.
Wonder if they are using off-the-shelf components

They have "families" of tanks etc. the 64/82 are I think mostly Ukrainian by dna.

It's almost certainly a challenge to actually train and outfit an armor unit even with similar era Soviet tanks. I'm not real sure of the active tank strength of Ukrainians right now. I believe best estimates are they lost about half their starting units, and raw numbers to the side might have a hundred or two hundred "replacement" tanks/squadrons etc about the "front line" area.

They are desperately short on trainers, and training areas. Fortunately or not most tanks are not being lost in big tank battles tho, but this also shows a lack of unit/combined arms training etc for all sides.

Fortunately there are ample trainers and training areas in NATO countries. Spain and UK specifically mentioned here but I'm sure there are others.



Germany

https://www.npr.org/2023/01/16/1149372572/expanded-us-training-for-ukraine-forces-begins-in-germany

Poland, Belgium. With trainers from many countries

https://www.newsweek.com/how-nato-members-training-ukraine-spring-offensive-russia-tanks-jets-1781669?amp=1

74OA said:

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Massive EU ammo plan for Ukraine: UPDATES

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Long term commitment from Europe: "Defense and foreign ministers for 17 European Union nations, along with Norway, signed an agreement March 20 committing to a joint "fast-track" acquisition of one million rounds of 155-millimeter artillery within the next two years, and a seven-year process to procure multiple types and calibers of ammunition to replenish national stocks of member nations."

DETAILS

deddog said:

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Not a Bot said:

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It appears from the Video that the Lancet set off the RM-70s Munitions which caused the Large Explosion.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 20, 2023

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Looked up the system, a lot like the Switchblade.
Wonder if they are using off-the-shelf components

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I don't usually post on this thread because of my lack of actual military training but seeing all of these suicide drones take out artillery or self-propelled artillery, can't you devise a physical way to keep them out?

What if you were to take some really long poles and stretch some barbed wire between them. Given the angle of attack I've seen on these videos, it seems like they drones might blow or get downed before getting to the target. It would also be hard to see that the defensive fencing was in place.

It would not help vs artillery or top down javelin like strikes but these slower moving drones. Anyway, just a thought.

GarryowenAg said:

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You're probably thinking of the Marine's AAV (Amphibious Assault Vehicle). I don't believe we've sent any of those vehicle types yet.

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The Greeks appear to have spoken first for the AAVs.

https://www.defensedaily.com/state-department-approves-potential-268-million-deal-with-greece-for-76-aavs/international/

Stressboy said:

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I don't usually post on this thread because of my lack of actual military training but seeing all of these suicide drones take out artillery or self-propelled artillery, can't you devise a physical way to keep them out?

What if you were to take some really long poles and stretch some barbed wire between them. Given the angle of attack I've seen on these videos, it seems like they drones might blow or get downed before getting to the target. It would also be hard to see that the defensive fencing was in place.

It would not help vs artillery or top down javelin like strikes but these slower moving drones. Anyway, just a thought.

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Assume it would drastically reduce mobility?
Also expensive to do it around every asset, but man, right now drones have the upper hand. Wondering what ingenious solutions folks come up with? Eventually they will

there doesn't seem to be a lot of cover, I think it might have been in one of the Iraq wars that tanks would shelter under bridges because (maybe hellfires?) were then only top attack, and so it was much harder to target them

Poland maybe, but Germany and Belgium don't have any substantive training capacity; they are not the militaries folks might remember from the Cold War or before. Poland operates (or did) mainly other types of Soviet-era T60/70 series. I dunno.

I'm not sure they've really maintained a combat armor core of tactically sound trainers/facilities, any more than their MiG-29 fulcrums from the 80's are actually compatible/readily useful.

Anyway, we'd have seen footage of these systems in substantial use/formations with geo data tags by now if they really are being employed effectively.

It seems like that particular lancet drone would have a hard time with netting and/or tree cover. The videos I've seen show it attacking at a relatively shallow angle

nortex97 said:

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Poland maybe, but Germany and Belgium don't have any substantive training capacity; they are not the militaries folks might remember from the Cold War or before. Poland operates (or did) mainly other types of Soviet-era T60/70 series. I dunno.

I'm not sure they've really maintained a combat armor core of tactically sound trainers/facilities, any more than their MiG-29 fulcrums from the 80's are actually compatible/readily useful.

Anyway, we'd have seen footage of these systems in substantial use/formations with geo data tags by now if they really are being employed effectively.

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Perhaps just glance at the link I provided you. We are training thousands of Ukrainians at our Grafenwoehr Training Area in Germany. The largest US training area in Europe.

Also, considering the Poles are donating hundreds of their T-72 derivatives I'm not sure how that's a knock on their training ability. They designed and field those tanks, there's no one more qualified.

Likewise look at the links I provided. There's a difference between donating old/worn out equipment and fielding it competently somehow in combat. The Poles have been working toward scrapping/dumping that 40+ year old stuff for a long time now.

Quote:

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More noteworthy is Poland's intention to accelerate the modernization of its military hardware. Indeed, the Polish military has long recognized its need to replace the 30- to 40-year-old combat systems that make up much of its equipment. That is particularly true of the Polish army and air force, which still operate Soviet-era T-72 and PT-91 (a T-72 variant) main battle tanks (MBT) and MiG-29 and Su-22 aircraft. Hence, in 2012, Polish defense planners laid out a structured roadmap for their country's military procurement programs in the Armed Forces Technical Modernization Plan (Plan Modernizacji Technicznej or PMT).

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Poland was largely looking to dump this stuff way before 2012. Anyone who's seen a military motorpool of 'let's hope this stuff gets retired soon' vehicles sitting around for 5 or 10 months knows how well that equipment is looked after.

They should fit right in with the Russian tanks they're facing.

Also the PT-91's aren't that old. They were last delivered in 2002

What do you call the Vietnam Era relics being pulled out if storage by Russia?

#Ukraine: The first footage of a 🇫🇷 French Crotale NG short-range air-defense system in service with the Ukrainian army.

We can see two missiles fired in an attempt to take down a Russian cruise missile- the second one hits the target. pic.twitter.com/avdf9HBn5J

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 20, 2023

nortex97 said:

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LMCane said:

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I saw some youtube videos of the Ukes practicing riverine bridging with German floatable pontoons, some armored vehicles were on top of them

hopefully they will cross into Kherson from an undefended river position and send 300 tanks and IFVs all over the peninsula

---

There is zero chance the Ukrainians are going to attempt some sort of substantive amphibious attack. That requires trained units with specific equipment/logistical/combined arms planning that is a step above/beyond what they are doing now, and frankly it is also quite often riskier.

300 tanks? C'mon, that is entirely implausible on it's own. Tanks are in short supply, presently, on both sides, as with everything else. They probably only have about 400 (or more likely 300) left.

https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/02/tanks-a-lot-well-actually-not-that-many-for-ukraine/

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Not sure how you define "Substantive" but given Uke ingenuity to date coupled with their courage and willingness to sacrifice much for freedom you can guarantee some kind of armor is going to get across a serious water obstacle and be a problem for the russians somewhere.

nortex97 said:

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Poland maybe, but Germany and Belgium don't have any substantive training capacity; they are not the militaries folks might remember from the Cold War or before. Poland operates (or did) mainly other types of Soviet-era T60/70 series. I dunno.


I'm not sure they've really maintained a combat armor core of tactically sound trainers/facilities, any more than their MiG-29 fulcrums from the 80's are actually compatible/readily useful.

Anyway, we'd have seen footage of these systems in substantial use/formations with geo data tags by now if they really are being employed effectively.

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Yea we're just dumping all this equipment to Ukraine and saying good luck. If you don't think we are spending all this money to help them without training them on the equipment you're just crazy! We are vested in this and I think it's going to work. Maybe not the entirety of Ukraine but Russia will be humiliated even more than they already are. I'd be shocked if we weren't training several Ukranian pilots on F16s already. We really won't know the full extent of our involvement for years but I can assure that it's more than the media has access to.

docb said:

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nortex97 said:

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Poland maybe, but Germany and Belgium don't have any substantive training capacity; they are not the militaries folks might remember from the Cold War or before. Poland operates (or did) mainly other types of Soviet-era T60/70 series. I dunno.


I'm not sure they've really maintained a combat armor core of tactically sound trainers/facilities, any more than their MiG-29 fulcrums from the 80's are actually compatible/readily useful.

Anyway, we'd have seen footage of these systems in substantial use/formations with geo data tags by now if they really are being employed effectively.

---

Yea we're just dumping all this equipment to Ukraine and saying good luck. If you don't think we are spending all this money to help them without training them on the equipment you're just crazy! We are vested in this and I think it's going to work. Maybe not the entirety of Ukraine but Russia will be humiliated even more than they already are. I'd be shocked if we weren't training several Ukranian pilots on F16s already. We really won't know the full extent of our involvement for years but I can assure that it's more than the media has access to.

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There is definitely training going on. Albeit more crash course level than our true formal schools. But you are right. We are invested in this and for all of our faults as a nation, we have always understood that it is people that is the most important asset, not always the equipment. We are definitely setting up the Ukes to be as successful as possible in the time and resources available. Which may not be a whole bunch but it is not nothing either.

That being said, there will absolutely be growing pains and trial and errors by the Ukes. That is just humanity. We learn the hard way too unfortunately. In every war we have pretty much ever fought.

Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1638025143199977474.html

Ukraine has reportedly struck Russian Kalibr cruise missiles that are transiting to the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea

Russian sources confirm explosions in Dzhankoy. Some thoughts /1

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 21, 2023

Ukraine got TOW-2B!
Ukraine got TOW-2B!

Here is a video from my ATGM thread of the effect a TOW-2B has on a russian tank. https://t.co/0zyEeN6Xv4

— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) March 20, 2023

Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1638007924147515393.html

Chinese President #Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir #Putin in #Moscow on March 20 and offered a more reserved vision for Russian-Chinese relations than what #Putin was likely seeking. 🧵(1/6) https://t.co/UQIwBdNHxA https://t.co/DKTr0onrCR

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) March 21, 2023

If you were following me early-mid summer of 2022, you knew this was coming. Frankly, assuming @kyodo_english is operating from a solid source, I feel more than slightly vindicated on this point.https://t.co/xes3SSVIKF

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) March 21, 2023

"Use of Chinese ammunition in Ukraine confirmed by U.S.: sources"

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/03/48412a76107a-urgent-use-of-chinese-ammunition-in-ukraine-confirmed-by-us-sources.html

Thread (long): https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1637880594263580673.html

Russia's successful withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson and mobilization helped stabilize the lines and stopped Ukraine's advance to Kreminna. In order to make further serious gains, Ukraine went on the defense to buy time to form new units/train on NATO equipment.

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 20, 2023

Interesting.

Quote:

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Bakhmut matters to Russia because its stated goal is to seize all of the Donbas, but Russian forces are struggling to advance towards Kramatorsk-Slovyansk from the other directions. It has also been key to Ukraine's defense of the rest of the Donbas.

Ukraine is prioritizing forming and training new units in three army corps for its spring offensive while trying to hold the entirety of the front line. But those are competing priorities, and Ukraine is deliberately holding back reserves.

This may give the impression that Ukraine is losing, but, in reality, Ukraine is not committing all of its resources to the front. Ukraine has a better chance of achieving another significant breakthrough this spring than Russia does during its current offensive.

Russia is dependent on a small number of elite units for their assaults (e.g. naval infantry, VDV, Wagner professionals), but they can grind their way to slow, costly victories by employing greater forces and artillery. An attritional fight is not in Ukraine's interests.

Until its offensive, Ukraine's best strategy is to pick battles where it can achieve a favorable ratio of attrition and expend fewer munitions, which could weaken Russian forces' ability to defend without significantly sapping Ukraine's offensive potential in the coming months.

Although the attrition ratio in Bakhmut has been advantageous for the duration of the battle, the ratio is much less favorable now with Ru forces holding high ground on the city's flanks. Much of Russia's losses are prisoners of less military value than Ukrainian soldiers.

In contrast, in Vuhledar, the share of Russian casualties from elite units is higher than in Bakhmut, and it isn't clear if Wagner's use of convicts would be as effective in a less urban setting.

The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will be strategically critical and potentially decisive. Western aid, including ammunition, will likely peak this spring and summer, and it will take years before increases in artillery production capacity can be achieved.

Ukraine will not have air superiority, will face stronger Russian defenses than it did in Kharkiv, and will likely only be able to achieve localized superiority in artillery fire and forces. To gives its offensive the best chance for success, Kyiv needs to husband its resources.

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2/https://t.co/MMU8kpEutd

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 20, 2023

The Avdiivka Front has been at a Stalemate since 2015 and has been considered one of the “Most Fortified and Well Defended Areas in the World” so if Russian Forces are making such Significant Advances here that is extremely worrying.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 20, 2023

Sad news from Ukraine…

The volunteer soldier from New Zealand, Kane Te Tai (right), has been killed in battle against the Russian Army.

A video of him liberating a Ukrainian friend captured by the Russians recently went viral around the world.

RIP Kane

🇳🇿🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/4Arlu7eavu

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 21, 2023

Today's SITREP. Crimea explosions.

They will most likely be Refurbish Export Models from Saudi Arabia or Iraq instead of the U.S. Army Variants with the Depleted-Uranium Armor which we are not allowed to Export to Foreign Countries.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 21, 2023