***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,815,833 Views | 48303 Replies | Last: 11 min ago by sclaff
Rossticus
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ABATTBQ11
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I kind of wonder how they're doing this, and whether they are producing missiles with the same precision or missiles with degraded capabilities that just need to land in the general vicinity. Would make sense when they're targeting residential areas
MouthBQ98
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Their Glonass system which is GPS equivalent is probably heavily jammed in Ukraine insofar as they are able to to do, and I imagine the electronics required to build receivers and guidance systems are hard to come by.

What they do have is older gyroscopic internal guidance systems they can harvest and repurpose for guidance, but the terminal detectors aren't designed to seek any specific building or structure, just any big structure it detects when it reaches the target area. If internal guidance is a little off, it just picks a big building and aims for that.

GAC06
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I'm guessing they're using a lot of inaccurate missiles to saturate air defenses for their fewer more accurate weapons. They aren't using S-300's to attack ground targets because it's a good weapon to target match.
ABATTBQ11
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Makes sense
aggiehawg
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Rossticus said:


Where are the Russians getting the components? China?
Rossticus
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Based on volume and lack of precision, this is my take. Make as many as they can and lob them all in. Overwhelm defenses and force expenditure of resources. Everything Russia does is quantity over quality. Hugely destructive and Ukraine just doesn't have the volume of high end weaponry to both blunt it AND go on the offensive.
nortex97
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Those are stock S300/S400 anti aircraft missiles from avangard, around Moscow.

https://mmzavangard.ru/

Believe/disbelieve what one wants, but it's unlikely that the products of this facility are having a big impact in Ukraine. It is likely the Russians have maintained some guidance capabilities separate from GPS/western guidance systems, imho. I don't think they are firing many missiles into empty fields etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almaz-Antey_Corporation
aggiehawg
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Thanks.
JFABNRGR
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We own the night.....at least this night.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11n60il/afu_drone_operator_hitting_multiple_large_groups/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
docb
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JFABNRGR said:

We own the night.....at least this night.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11n60il/afu_drone_operator_hitting_multiple_large_groups/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3


Would have been better with Enter Sandman music
Rossticus
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ABATTBQ11
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nortex97 said:

Those are stock S300/S400 anti aircraft missiles from avangard, around Moscow.

https://mmzavangard.ru/

Believe/disbelieve what one wants, but it's unlikely that the products of this facility are having a big impact in Ukraine. It is likely the Russians have maintained some guidance capabilities separate from GPS/western guidance systems, imho. I don't think they are firing many missiles into empty fields etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almaz-Antey_Corporation


Yeah, but there's a difference between precision and guided weapons. Precision implies being precise and repeatable. Guided just means you have a guidance system directing the weapon. Even the V2 was technically guided. It had a CEP of like 10 miles, which was more than enough to hit at least something in a city the size of London. The Russians probably do have the ability to produce guided missiles for general terror attacks against cities, getting within several hundred feet of where they aim, but I think they have a far more limited capacity to make precision weapons for strikes on specific targets.
MouthBQ98
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A lot of the missiles they use are modified attack weapons, designed to hit a thing, not a place. They have basic guidance to get them to the target area, and then a seeker looking for a specific size and shape of target. Say for example a long range anti-ship missile. Goes to an area then its seeker looks for a ship sized object and executes an attack. Many of these Russian missiles are using an adaptation of that guidance. They use internal gyroscopic navigation to get to the target area, and then a seeker warhead looking for a building sized target. Sometimes, the guidance is good enough that it seeks out the intended building. Often, it's a little bit off and it picks "a building".
P.U.T.U
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The S300 and S400 were designed as anti-aircraft weapons that can have modifications to be anti-missile weapons. Yes they can get in the general area of a land target but that is not what they were designed to hit. To me it makes no sense to use one of those missile systems due to cost alone, almost all of the Russian anti-aircraft or ICBM missiles cost over $1 million for each.

Compare that to an American JDAM is around $25k each (with volume) and can be up to $70k for the 2000 pound version. The main issue is limited range so you have to get aircraft close enough which most anti-aircraft systems will see you by then.

I have never looked it up but a single hellfire cost $150k, just thought about it since I saw Ukraine is asking for Predator and Reapers. Also noticed the most current Reapers can hold up to 8 hellfires. So a fully loaded Reaper will cost almost $35 million plus the need for ground control systems, training, and maintenance. Seeing as the reaper is big and slow it seems like an easy target for the Russians compared to the much smaller TB2
nortex97
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MouthBQ98 said:

A lot of the missiles they use are modified attack weapons, designed to hit a thing, not a place. They have basic guidance to get them to the target area, and then a seeker looking for a specific size and shape of target. Say for example a long range anti-ship missile. Goes to an area then its seeker looks for a ship sized object and executes an attack. Many of these Russian missiles are using an adaptation of that guidance. They use internal gyroscopic navigation to get to the target area, and then a seeker warhead looking for a building sized target. Sometimes, the guidance is good enough that it seeks out the intended building. Often, it's a little bit off and it picks "a building".
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/09/europe/ukraine-russia-missile-attack-kinzhal-intl/index.html

(Caution, CNN is fake news, but this article appears valid somehow).

Quote:

Rare use of Kinzhal missile

The use of such a wide and unpredictable array of weaponry seemingly marks a shift in the Kremlin's strategy.

The Kinzhal, an air-launched variant of the Iskander short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) which has also, more frequently, been used in Ukraine, was unveiled by Putin in 2018 as a cornerstone of a modernized Russian arsenal.

Like virtually all ballistic missiles it is hypersonic, which means they travel at least five times the speed of sound, but it is also particularly difficult to detect because it can be launched from MiG-31 fighter jets, giving it a longer range and the ability to attack from multiple directions.

"Russia likely developed the unique missile to more easily target critical European infrastructure … (its) speed, in combination with the missile's erratic flight trajectory and high maneuverability, could complicate interception," according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Russia's use of the missile on Ukrainian targets last March was its first known use in combat, according to CSIS, and it was subsequently used again in May.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-47M2_Kinzhal

These are sophisticated, precise weapons. INS with their 'glonass' gps system. It's unlikely we/ukrainians are 'jamming' their GPS signals broadly, imho. It would take a lot of energy, consistently, to do so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLONASS
docb
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It will be interesting to see what happens in Bakmut. I don't think pulling out of this town will change the war outcome one bit. To put this in perspective they have been trying for 6 plus months to capture a town roughly the size of Georgetown, TX in prewar population. That right there tells me something about the Russian army.
RebelE Infantry
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docb said:

It will be interesting to see what happens in Bakmut. I don't think pulling out of this town will change the war outcome one bit. To put this in perspective they have been trying for 6 plus months to capture a town roughly the size of Georgetown, TX in prewar population. That right there tells me something about the Russian army.


The important thing to remember about Bakhmut is it's basically a fortress city along a fortified line. Taking it opens up that line and gives access to Slavyansk and other important cities in the Donbas. There is a reason that Ukraine command has been throwing troops at it for months.
The flames of the Imperium burn brightly in the hearts of men repulsed by degenerate modernity. Souls aflame with love of goodness, truth, beauty, justice, and order.
docb
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rgag12
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docb said:

It will be interesting to see what happens in Bakmut. I don't think pulling out of this town will change the war outcome one bit. To put this in perspective they have been trying for 6 plus months to capture a town roughly the size of Georgetown, TX in prewar population. That right there tells me something about the Russian army.


The town is situated on hills that look down on the attackers, from my understanding. Plus the Ukrainians chose to defend that town with a bunch of resources and fortifications. It was not going to be easy to take, but the Russians did it. If Ukraine wants to see success in the coming months it's going to have to pull off similar feats as the Russians are extremely fortified in all areas and have lots of manpower now.

Taking the city probably won't mean a breakthrough, but it's hard to see many other places for a long stretch that will give the Russians fits like Bakhmut did.
docb
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I don't think they have completely taken Bakmut
nortex97
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Correct, the Russians are still in a 'phase 2' by most accounts of mobilizations.

It's interesting to read how irrelevant Bakhmut is now, after Zelensky said just yesterday or the day before it was critical and the Russians would have an 'open path' through Ukraine if it falls. Apparently, fewer people take his word seriously than I thought.
rgag12
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No, but as western military leaders have said it's only a matter of when not if.
docb
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nortex97 said:

Correct, the Russians are still in a 'phase 2' by most accounts of mobilizations.

It's interesting to read how irrelevant Bakhmut is now, after Zelensky said just yesterday or the day before it was critical and the Russians would have an 'open path' through Ukraine if it falls. Apparently, fewer people take his word seriously than I thought.
I don't think anyone said it was irrelevant. All of Ukraine is relevant. That is just more of your opinion which most of us who have been following this thread for a long time are well aware of. I hope Ukraine does defend the town and keep laying to waste as many Russian invaders as they can there. Zelensky is the president of Ukraine. He is never going to say that losing something will not change the outcome. Who do you want to win this war?
docb
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rgag12 said:

No, but as western military leaders have said it's only a matter of when not if.
They've also said it is unlikely to change the outcome of this war.
nortex97
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docb said:

nortex97 said:

Correct, the Russians are still in a 'phase 2' by most accounts of mobilizations.

It's interesting to read how irrelevant Bakhmut is now, after Zelensky said just yesterday or the day before it was critical and the Russians would have an 'open path' through Ukraine if it falls. Apparently, fewer people take his word seriously than I thought.
I don't think anyone said it was irrelevant. All of Ukraine is relevant. That is just more of your opinion which most of us who have been following this thread for a long time are well aware of. I hope Ukraine does defend the town and keep laying to waste as many Russian invaders as they can there. Zelensky is the president of Ukraine. He is never going to say that losing something will not change the outcome.
It's not my opinion you're arguing about semantically, it's saint Zelensky.

Quote:

Russian forces will have an "open road" to seize other critical settlements in eastern Ukraine if they capture Bakhmut, President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN, reiterating his bid to continue the city's defense.

"This is tactical for us… after Bakhmut, they could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk," Zelensky said in an interview from Kyiv. "That's why our guys are standing there."
The report comes a day after President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address to Ukrainians that there was consensus between him and Ukraine's top military leadership that Ukrainian forces should continue to hold the city.

Citing unnamed sources in the Ukrainian government, Bild reported on March 6 that Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi disagree on how the military should handle the situation in Bakhmut.

The battle for Bakhmut, a city in Donetsk Oblast, has been raging for the past seven months. The Russian military is attempting to increase its grip over the entirety of the oblast, around half of which it currently occupies.

Zelensky also told CNN that "Russia needs at least some victory a small victory even by ruining everything in Bakhmut, just killing every civilian there," adding that if Russia can "put their little flag" on top of Bakhmut, it would help "mobilize their society to create this idea they're such a powerful army."
I again don't believe he was honest about those assessments (or much else), but that's the guy who you and others dismissing Bakhmut as strategically/tactically insignificant are disagreeing with. Personally, I would like to think Zelensky is aware of/prepared to rely on the better territory/defensive positions west of the ruins;

Quote:

"The Ukrainians… will be withdrawing into defensive zones in the Kramatorsk areas that they have had eight years to prepare. And the city sits on higher, more defensible ground than Bakhmut. Any advance on the Kramatorsk region is likely to be every bit as bloody for the Russians as its campaign for Bakhmut."
Anyway, I find Pope Francis' intonation of 'empires' (plural) to be interesting, relative to Ukraine: I wonder if this could have a strategic impact on the allies/southern and eastern European support (where there are still substantial numbers of roman catholics) for Ukraine's military/government. I doubt he is referencing simply Russia and China.

Quote:

  • The private mercenary group Wagner appears to be taking a "tactical pause" in Bakhmut, the US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said in its daily update. The ISW believes that Wagner is waiting until enough reinforcements of conventional Russian troops have arrived before taking a backseat in the fierce battle.
  • Oleh Synyehubov, governor of Kharkiv, has said the energy situation is difficult after Russia's barrage of attacks on Thursday. In a message on Telegram, he said "the energy system has suffered significant damage. Nevertheless, critical infrastructure has already been restored in the city, and water supply has been almost completely restored". However, public transport remains closed.
  • The UN nuclear watchdog's 35-nation board of governors on Friday backed the reappointment of Argentina's Rafael Grossi to a second four-year term as director general, diplomats at the closed-door meeting said.
  • Ukraine handed suspicion notices on Friday to three former senior managers of the aircraft manufacturer Antonov for obstructing the country's military and allowing Russia to destroy the giant Mriya cargo plane at the start of the war.
  • Russian president, Vladimir Putin, congratulated Xi Jinping on Friday after the Chinese leader secured an unprecedented third term as president. In a telegram, Putin said he was sure the two leaders could advance their cooperation on the most important regional and international issues
  • The Kremlin said on Friday it sees risks of possible "provocations" in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two Russian-backed breakaway regions of Georgia, after days of protests in Georgia over a "foreign agents" bill. Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said on Friday that Moscow was watching the situation "with concern".
  • The war in Ukraine is driven by the interests of several "empires" and not just the "Russian empire", Pope Francis said in an interview published on Friday.

Rossticus
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aggiehawg
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"all lines of communication," means what exactly? They are on their own? Not subject to orders? Aren't getting paid?
nortex97
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Incredibly likely that is propaganda/lies/disinformation/pick your term.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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nortex97 said:

Incredibly likely that is propaganda/lies/disinformation/pick your term.


Probably. I was adding it since it was referenced in your prior post.
P.U.T.U
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aggiehawg said:

"all lines of communication," means what exactly? They are on their own? Not subject to orders? Aren't getting paid?
Prigozhin has been complaining for a long time about not getting weapon systems comparable with what the west is giving Ukraine and is also comparing Wagner to companies like KBR, Triple Canopy, and Blackwater that have the best of the best.

Prigozhin does not get his order from the Russian military, he gets orders directly from Putin. If he is not getting weapons that means Putin is not allocating them to Wagner or they flat out can't get them to them in time which is the most likely reason for the tactical pause. Wagner will get more conscripts, weapons, fortify positions, and wait for Ukraine's spring offensive where they should have western tanks and armoured vehicles.
74OA
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More details on the recent missile mass attack.

"As to why there hasn't been more Russian use of Kh-47s, or whether this attack is a precursor for more, it is well known that these weapons were very limited in number before the full-on invasion began.

Resupply has likely been curtailed by sanctions, like many of Russia's high-tech weapons programs. Even the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles, a staple of the early stages of the conflict, which the Kinzhal is based on have been reduced in numbers to the point that they are barely used in Russia's war efforts anymore."

KH-47
74OA
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"Britain's Defense Ministry said the latest Russian air attacks had included at least 80 long-range missiles, which targeted critical Ukrainian infrastructure.

It said the blitz was likely one of the largest since December and the first major wave of long-range strikes since February 16.

The Ministry posited that the interval between the waves of strikes was likely due to the need to stockpile newly produced weapons before it has the resources to launch a big enough strike to "credibly overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses."

UPDATES
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Prigozhin does not get his order from the Russian military, he gets orders directly from Putin. If he is not getting weapons that means Putin is not allocating them to Wagner or they flat out can't get them to them in time which is the most likely reason for the tactical pause. Wagner will get more conscripts, weapons, fortify positions, and wait for Ukraine's spring offensive where they should have western tanks and armoured vehicles.
Thanks.
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