More on Bakhmut.

"Russia has changed tactics," Podolyak said in an interview published by Italy's La Stampa newspaper. "It has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies."

"We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive."

"Kyiv, which had seemed at the start of March to be planning to withdraw westward, announced this week that its generals had decided to reinforce Bakhmut and fight on."

HOLDING ON

74OA said:

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More on Bakhmut.

"Russia has changed tactics," Podolyak said in an interview published by Italy's La Stampa newspaper. "It has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies."

"We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive."

"Kyiv, which had seemed at the start of March to be planning to withdraw westward, announced this week that its generals had decided to reinforce Bakhmut and fight on."

HOLDING ON

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Makes sense. I imagine they planned to perform a slow withdrawal until Russia committed so many valuable units to one small fight. Fixing them in place and degrading their affectiveness is a huge opportunity for Ukraine. Bakhmut otherwise is fairly insignificant.

What would happen if Ukraine changed plans and launched their offensive here on the flanks trying to cut off all these units to be destroyed?

Or was Russia's plan to commit these forces so Ukraine can't make a run for the sea and divide the east and Crimea?

Which is more important? Destroying all of Russia's best units around Bakhmut or dividing and threatening Crimea?

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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More on Bakhmut.

"Russia has changed tactics," Podolyak said in an interview published by Italy's La Stampa newspaper. "It has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies."

"We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive."

"Kyiv, which had seemed at the start of March to be planning to withdraw westward, announced this week that its generals had decided to reinforce Bakhmut and fight on."

HOLDING ON

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Makes sense. I imagine they planned to perform a slow withdrawal until Russia committed so many valuable units to one small fight. Fixing them in place and degrading their affectiveness is a huge opportunity for Ukraine. Bakhmut otherwise is fairly insignificant.

What would happen if Ukraine changed plans and launched their offensive here on the flanks trying to cut off all these units to be destroyed?

Or was Russia's plan to commit these forces so Ukraine can't make a run for the sea and divide the east and Crimea?

Which is more important? Destroying all of Russia's best units around Bakhmut or dividing and threatening Crimea?

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Ukraine has proven since 2014 that it can survive and even thrive without the breakaway Donbas region and Crimea. What it can't do is live without its occupied southlands which include almost 20% of its most productive agricultural land and much of its commercial access to the Black Sea.

The coastal south also deeply outflanks Ukraine's interior defensive depth which is essential to safeguarding both Odessa and Kiev. So, I suspect that's where Ukraine will first concentrate its counteroffensive (which, of course, means it will do exactly the opposite).

If Ukraine has indeed committed only a modest force to the defense of Bakhmut while fixing and attritting many of Russia's best units as well as its cannon fodder, it will have enabled two key objectives: 1. Conserving the necessary resources to potentially liberate the south via a counteroffensive and, 2. Collaterally relieving the pressure on Bakhmut and the east by compelling Russia to shift forces to defend the counteroffensive.

All IMHO, of course.

lb3 said:

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Last years Ukraine offensive was successful because HIMARS gave the Ukes longer range fires than the Russians. We had weeks of ammo depots blowing up and senior officers being killed until the Russians moved those assets further to the rear.

For the Ukes to be successful this spring they really need ATACMS in order to hit those repositioned supply bases.

Of course, that won't win the war but will make Russian logistics far more challenging. Ultimately the Ukes will probably need cruise missiles to win this battle of attrition. They need to be able to hit manufacturing facilities within Russia and key economic infrastructure.

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ATACMS would be very useful, but most of occupied southern Ukraine is already within HIMARS range. If Russia has relocated its major dumps and depots much further east, resupply will be delayed by the increased distance and convoys still have to traverse Ukraine's long coastal roadways to reach units in Kherson province and those LOCs are now in range.

I agree that the ATACMS will be needed for the offensive and a lot more JDAMS. What I would really like to see is a two pronged offensive for Ukraine. One group push towards Mariopul and the other group make a push toward Melitopol. If the coastal region could be cut on both ends that would trap a lot of Russians in there that would have limited means to resupply and would wreak havoc with Russia. I don't know the true capability of Ukraine militarily but I have to think they will be able to make a push. I think that in the end they will concede some of the Donbas region as a lot of those folks are more pro Russian anyways.

If Russia has logistics challenges and a distributed and less efficient supply setup, a mobile war could shatter their ability to respond by making logistical support to any response chaotic. I would agree that a drive to cut off Crimea would give Ukraine back its most strategic lost territory and more or less restore 2014 boundaries with the threat to Crimea as leverage. At worst they could negotiate with a lot of upper hand.

The idea of cutting off a lot of the best parts of the Russian army would be tempting but very difficult to achieve.

I know it will never happen but a few FAEs could change the war, too bad they have to be dropped from slow moving, easy to target large aircraft that Ukraine doesn't have. I wouldn't feel bad since Russia has used them in Syria, Africa, and a few times already in Ukraine.

Ukraine needs longer range weapons and aircraft to do a big offensive. I have a feeling North Korea and Iran will keep supplying Russia with enough artillery to more or less carpet bomb towns to ruins

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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More on Bakhmut.

"Russia has changed tactics," Podolyak said in an interview published by Italy's La Stampa newspaper. "It has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies."

"We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive."

"Kyiv, which had seemed at the start of March to be planning to withdraw westward, announced this week that its generals had decided to reinforce Bakhmut and fight on."

HOLDING ON

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Which is more important? Destroying all of Russia's best units around Bakhmut or dividing and threatening Crimea?

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I would say that if cutting off Crimea is guaranteed, then that's far more important than Bakhmut. Leave just enough of a force in Bakhmut to delay Russia until you're able to launch the thrust to Melitopol.

But obviously, it's not guaranteed. I definitely see the value in destroying Russia's best at Bakhmut but what is Ukraine losing in the process? There have been reports of a 1:1 ratio which is pretty bad for a defense. But is that apples to apples or is Ukraine losing low quality troops against Russia's best?

The allegation is that Russia has drawn most of their top of the line forces into that area, in addition to Wagner, and Ukraine has as rotated many of theirs out, but there's probably some exceptions to that, as Ukraine can't afford to not slow that concentration of forces down with a competent defense if they are going to draw them in.

Today's SITREP.

Off the Dnipro River, south of Kherson on Potemkin Island.

Ukrainian drones target a Russian infantry team that infiltrated via a stolen civilian watercraft, resulting in a hasty failed evacuation. pic.twitter.com/Up9V3kgdaU

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 10, 2023

Original Map Source: @TheStudyofWar

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 10, 2023

MouthBQ98 said:

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The allegation is that Russia has drawn most of their top of the line forces into that area, in addition to Wagner, and Ukraine has as rotated many of theirs out, but there's probably some exceptions to that, as Ukraine can't afford to not slow that concentration of forces down with a competent defense if they are going to draw them in.

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I certainly hope that's the case. If so, then Ukraine's best would be free to spearhead an offensive while Russia's would be dead or engaged. Time will tell.

chickencoupe16 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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The allegation is that Russia has drawn most of their top of the line forces into that area, in addition to Wagner, and Ukraine has as rotated many of theirs out, but there's probably some exceptions to that, as Ukraine can't afford to not slow that concentration of forces down with a competent defense if they are going to draw them in.

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I certainly hope that's the case. If so, then Ukraine's best would be free to spearhead an offensive while Russia's would be dead or engaged. Time will tell.

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There's very little real evidence of such a strategy, though. Those opining on this are generally relying on Ukrainian PR/spin:

Quote:

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"Russia ... has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies," one of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's top advisers, Mykhailo Podolyak, said in a new interview with La Stampa, an Italy-based publication. "We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive. So, today Bakhmut is completely effective, even exceeding its key tasks."

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Speculation aside, the Russians 'win' by sending in waves of people/conscripts into a meat grinder where they eventually deplete an enemy's ability/willingness to defend. This pre-dates even the 1917 (communist) revolution. The numerous videos of 'dumb orcs' being killed with untrained/silly/stupid tactics about/around Bakhmut seem to counter those assertions.

Credit to those who are defending their homes, of course, but I do remain skeptical what the 'end game' is or why negotiations cannot be pressed for.

Oleg and Mykyta Khomiuk, father and son, died defending Bakhmut.

Their funeral took place today in Kyiv.

Eternal memory and glory to Heroes! pic.twitter.com/cSktrO3kGx

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 10, 2023

Why would Ukraine negotiate?

Rossticus said:

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nortex97 said:

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Incredibly likely that is propaganda/lies/disinformation/pick your term.

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Probably. I was adding it since it was referenced in your prior post.

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There is a LOT of smoke now in the seemingly growing divide between Wagner and Moscow. I am sure some is wistful thinking but there is definitely enough that it would also be stupid to outright dismiss at this point.

Whether anything strategic comes of it, remains to be seen of course. There are hints that Russian regular forces are showing up again though.

The whole relationship of Wagner and Moscow has always been weird anyways to me. We had our PMCs for light stuff but still relied on our active uniformed forces to prosecute our latest wars. Russia has let Wagner become their premier fighting force last few months (at least in terms of media highlighting) and that was always going to be a double edged sword IMO. Then you mix in that you essentially have two armies with one supply chain and a leader who was mouthy as hell even before all this started popping up on the radar....Not exactly a recipe for success.

You forgot the PMCs are illegal in Russia too. So Putin's right hand man is in charge of Putin's own private army

Eliminatus said:

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We had to do this for Afghanistan too. This thread is for the actual facts, data, interpretations, fallouts and other such conversation about this new conflict.

Tired of the BS poo flinging derailing of the other thread. It's annoying to slog through to find actual updates.




Staff - Would you mind keeping a short leash on this thread please?

[2/5/22 9:36 a.m. CST]

[We have had to clean up a lot of derails on this thread and we are not going to do it again without issuing bans to posters for at least 72 hours that makes posts that derail from the tactical aspects of this thread. There is the warning. -Staff]

[We are adding this to make it clear that if a poster isn't deliberately trolling or attempting to derail this thread then they do not have to worry about a ban. -Staff]

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Nortex has had a lot of experience in the politics, history, and religion areas that show him willing to engage in a meaningful (not Troll) way while being outnumbered.
I would say he is mainly concerned about the cost of the war and the potential for escalation, and not at all pro-Russian, but maybe I missed something.

Reminder of the old American Vol Blog. Fascinating stuff.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/24/they-are-scared-of-this-forest-as-they-should-be/

Couldn't agree more!!!

⚡️In 2024 I will run for the presidency of Ukraine — head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin pic.twitter.com/C0Ni5FMKVx

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 11, 2023

Col. General Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces, visited #Bakhmut again and reassured the defense of city is necessary for the preparation of the spring counteroffensive.#UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/GrHAauy5L3

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 11, 2023

Russia admits to taking Ukrainian children.

"A report released in February by Yale University said there is a network of at least 43 child custody centers right across Russia, including two camps in Siberia and one in the Far East. The Yale team said at least 6,000 Ukrainian children, ranging from toddlers to teenagers, had been detained, although it believes there are thousands more."

CENTERS

Not a Bot said:

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⚡️In 2024 I will run for the presidency of Ukraine — head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin pic.twitter.com/C0Ni5FMKVx

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 11, 2023

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Look at him all dressed up like a soldier

GAC06 said:

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Not a Bot said:

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⚡️In 2024 I will run for the presidency of Ukraine — head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin pic.twitter.com/C0Ni5FMKVx

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 11, 2023

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Look at him all dressed up like a soldier

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With a green screen behind him

ABATTBQ11 said:

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GAC06 said:

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Not a Bot said:

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⚡️In 2024 I will run for the presidency of Ukraine — head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin pic.twitter.com/C0Ni5FMKVx

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 11, 2023

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Look at him all dressed up like a soldier

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With a green screen behind him

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Bold words coming from someone within "fall out of" distance of a window.

What a turd and completely disconnected from reality. At this point I am not sure he even survives this current war, much less be able to survive a Presidency of a conquered nation that you had a key hand in subduing that will invariably lead to war crimes on a scale not seen in generations.

A spicy take from a private army leader, aspiring to political office. I am sure Putin is THRILLED at knowing someone who already has the gall to publicly question him and his policies is also vying for power.

Today's SITREP.

The shelling of Ugledar with incendiary shells by the russians last night. pic.twitter.com/IR504g0LaE

— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) March 11, 2023

When Putin starts conscripting from Moscow and Saint Petersburg to the extent he is doing in the rural/ethnic regions of Russia, dissent will accelerate.

ELITES