***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Eliminatus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 6:31p, 3/6/23
AG
Waffledynamics said:
I'm not sure I'm ready to believe the claims around Bakhmut. Something about it seems like there's a lot of propaganda and deception. We've seen claims of:

  • Ukraine's leaving
  • Ukraine's staying
  • Ukraine's counterattacking, but not really
  • Ukraine's inflicting massive casualties on the Russians in lopsided fashion
  • Russia's inflicting massive casualties on the Ukrainians in lopsided fashion
  • Ukraine's slowly pulling out
  • Ukraine's now saying they'll hold on longer and defend the city

What the heck is happening there?


Literally that. Misdirection probably. The one thing that has continually impressed me from day one is how the well Ukes have managed to keep OPSEC and how the larger OSINT community respects that. With that foundation in place it is much easier to play mind games with Russia and it has worked several times in the past.

Or it could be a disaster with everything falling apart. I am just pretty sure that if we don't know, the Russians probably don't either.

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sclaff
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9:08p, 3/6/23
AG
Well this video describes a complicated plan with a lot of misdirection.
I would like to see a confirmation of the Prighozin quote

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80sGeorge
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12:43a, 3/7/23
AG
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/winged-jdam-smart-bombs-are-now-operational-in-ukraine
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74OA
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3:34a, 3/7/23
AG
Today's SITREP.
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Smeghead4761
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4:35a, 3/7/23
Russian reservists short on ammo fighting with shovels designed in 1869: report

Now, the headline is a bit misleading. They do have small arms and ammo. It's artillery ammo they're short on.

And the utility of the entrenching tool as a close quarters weapon (like for, say, trenchline assaults) has been recognized for over a century. (If you've read Rommel's Infantry Attacks, you'll recall "The spade! The spade!")

And honestly, utility as a weapon is one major way that the straight handled versions of the entrenching tool have an advantage over the American folding model.

Another data point showing that the Russians seem to be short on artillery ammo, and are throwing bodies at the problem instead.

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nortex97
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5:16a, 3/7/23
AG


US is evaluating 2 Ukrainians (in the US) for F-16 training/transition. Nice opsec there, USAF.

At one point US Army night vision/weapons 'owned the night' and I'm a bit surprised we don't see more footage like this;



I have no idea what's really going on in Bakhmut, there's just too much disinformation about it all, imho:

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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Smeghead4761 • 6:51a, 3/7/23
AG
The Russian Spetsnaz are trained to use their shovels as a weapon for months. But I doubt their standard troops and conscripts can do anything like the spetsnaz but shovel training is supposed to be part of their training. It is kind of like our special operators using their chosen knives or tomahawks.

One of my sister's former neighbors was a retired spetsnaz and he could throw the shovel from around 20 yards and get it stuck in a fence or tree. Kind of crazy
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LMCane
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7:41a, 3/7/23
I don't have an Economist account but if someone can share behind the paywall:

Get ready for the Ukraine counter attack
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TH36
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7:41a, 3/7/23
Funny how history repeats itself. This battle is eerily similar to Friedrich Paulus and the German 6th Army group at Stalingrad but on a smaller scale.
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74OA
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In reply to Eliminatus • 10:51a, 3/7/23
AG
Eliminatus said:
Waffledynamics said:
I'm not sure I'm ready to believe the claims around Bakhmut. Something about it seems like there's a lot of propaganda and deception. We've seen claims of:

  • Ukraine's leaving
  • Ukraine's staying
  • Ukraine's counterattacking, but not really
  • Ukraine's inflicting massive casualties on the Russians in lopsided fashion
  • Russia's inflicting massive casualties on the Ukrainians in lopsided fashion
  • Ukraine's slowly pulling out
  • Ukraine's now saying they'll hold on longer and defend the city

What the heck is happening there?


Literally that. Misdirection probably. The one thing that has continually impressed me from day one is how the well Ukes have managed to keep OPSEC and how the larger OSINT community respects that. With that foundation in place it is much easier to play mind games with Russia and it has worked several times in the past.

Or it could be a disaster with everything falling apart. I am just pretty sure that if we don't know, the Russians probably don't either.

I suspect Kiev is concerned that Russia may take an operational pause if Bakhmut falls and they don't want to give it a chance to reset and reorient in advance of Ukraine's own offensive.
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P.U.T.U
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10:57a, 3/7/23
AG
My home is Ukraine finally stops listening to the USA and telling Russia what they are going to do. Kind of defeats the purpose of war. Those who adapt the quickest in war normally wins.
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lb3
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 11:39a, 3/7/23
AG
Telegraphing to the Russians that they were going to focus on liberating Kherson helped the Ukes exploit Russia's troop shift and initiate the Kharkiv offensive.

This is the first major war to be basically live streamed and I still have no clue what's going on. I think that is a testament to Ukraine's operational security and skillful use of deception and propaganda.
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Rossticus
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12:03p, 3/7/23


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MouthBQ98
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12:37p, 3/7/23
AG
The US APFSDS ammunition from the Bradley 25mm can also penetrate a T-62 except areas of the hull and turret front. It's thick in places, but it's only cast steel.
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Not a Bot
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12:56p, 3/7/23
AG


Recommend reading the entire thread.
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Not a Bot
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12:59p, 3/7/23
AG
Quote:

The Battle of Bakhmut may, in fact, severely degrade the Wagner Group's best forces, depriving Russia of some of its most effective and most difficult-to-replace shock troops. The Wagner attacks already culminated once, causing the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to commit some of its elite airborne troops to the fight. It may well culminate again before taking the city, once more forcing the Russian military to choose between abandoning the effort or throwing more high-quality troops into the battle. The opportunity to damage the Wagner Group's elite elements, along with other elite units if they are committed, in a defensive urban warfare setting where the attrition gradient strongly favors Ukraine is an attractive one.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin apparently fears that his forces are being expended in exactly this way. Prigozhin made a number of statements on March 5 and 6 that suggest that he fears that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is fighting the Battle of Bakhmut to the last Wagner fighter and exposing his forces to destruction.


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6-2023
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benchmark
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In reply to Not a Bot • 1:27p, 3/7/23
AG
Not a Bot said:
Recommend reading the entire thread.
Agree. Yesterday's update was one of their better ones. Worth reading. Link below:

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 6, 2023
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cbr
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In reply to Not a Bot • 1:38p, 3/7/23
AG
Not a Bot said:
Quote:

The Battle of Bakhmut may, in fact, severely degrade the Wagner Group's best forces, depriving Russia of some of its most effective and most difficult-to-replace shock troops. The Wagner attacks already culminated once, causing the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to commit some of its elite airborne troops to the fight. It may well culminate again before taking the city, once more forcing the Russian military to choose between abandoning the effort or throwing more high-quality troops into the battle. The opportunity to damage the Wagner Group's elite elements, along with other elite units if they are committed, in a defensive urban warfare setting where the attrition gradient strongly favors Ukraine is an attractive one.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin apparently fears that his forces are being expended in exactly this way. Prigozhin made a number of statements on March 5 and 6 that suggest that he fears that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is fighting the Battle of Bakhmut to the last Wagner fighter and exposing his forces to destruction.


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6-2023
if ziehan is right, wagner got all of its troops from russian army after they left, or prisons.

now, the russian army isnt letting anyone go, and all the prisoners dumb enough to be cannon fodder are dead.

so no more Wagner.

i expect the alternative is Wagner will have to hire mercenaries from other armies' retirees now, rather than just fade away.
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74OA
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1:45p, 3/7/23
AG
Which fighter is best for Ukraine?

CHOICES

Perhaps no 4th gen aircraft can survive?

IAD
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LMCane
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 1:57p, 3/7/23
MouthBQ98 said:
The US APFSDS ammunition from the Bradley 25mm can also penetrate a T-62 except areas of the hull and turret front. It's thick in places, but it's only cast steel.
TOW on the Bradley

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MouthBQ98
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In reply to LMCane • 2:47p, 3/7/23
AG
Well of course there is that? Just pointing out how vulnerable a T-62 is to modern weapons.
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74OA
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3:35p, 3/7/23
AG
Interesting. Putin retreats further into his mental labyrinth.

"A richly sourced piece in the Financia Times pointed to how "the steady drumbeat of propaganda around the war and Putin's demands for loyalty from the elite" that encircle him have only further sealed the echo chamber in which the Russian president operates. This has played a key role over the course of the war, shaping Putin's own decision-making."

ANALYSIS
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to LMCane • 3:45p, 3/7/23
AG
Issue is the TOW can only be fired stationary. Plus side is it has a range of 4000-4500m compared to the T62 that can only accurately fire at ranges of up to 1500m. If Ukraine can actually use armoured vehicles in conjunction with infantry they can start taking back ground once the ground dries a bit
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lb3
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 3:49p, 3/7/23
AG
That added range is only useful if you have line of sight and actually detect your target at that distance. Luckily much of Ukraine is flat and the Bradley's optics and thermals, even 30 years old, exceeds what Russia has.
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Eliminatus
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4:14p, 3/7/23
AG
The Russians have created another martyr and the Ukes have another hero.

For context a new video circulated a few days ago of a captured Uke standing in what looks like his own grave, take a long pull on his cigarette before blowing out the smoke and saying Glory to Ukraine before he is unloaded into from at least two rifles. As morbid as it is, this is the stuff of legends and folk tales. Just like our own stuff from the Alamo, Revolution, etc. A man dies in defiance for his nation and people will react.

Anyways, It went viral and the Ukes are understandably pretty damn upset. Things….happen on battlefields. Always have. Let's not even try to sugarcoat that. But for the Russians to do this over and over and over with clearly surrendered Ukes and then release the video is mind numbing stupid.

Just another point of how terrible the Russians are as both a fighting force and a nation. And stupid.
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CondensedFogAggie
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4:18p, 3/7/23

Posted right above me, but the now famous video of a Ukrainian soldier saying "Glory to Ukraine" after digging his own grave, and right before he was executed.

Rest in peace, Tymofiy Mykolayovych Shadura, born on January 7, 1982, of the Ukrainian 30th Mechanized.



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Eliminatus
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 4:29p, 3/7/23
AG
CondensedFogAggie said:

Posted right above me, but the now famous video of a Ukrainian soldier saying "Glory to Ukraine" after digging his own grave, and right before he was executed.

Rest in peace, Tymofiy Mykolayovych Shadura, born on January 7, 1982, of the Ukrainian 30th Mechanized.



Stuff like this humbles me a lot. I first saw it a couple of days ago and it has rested in my mind since. Brings up the old question of what is worth fighting for. This is not the thread for that particular discussion but for that Uke right there, he clearly had an answer. May he rest in peace now.
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lb3
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In reply to Eliminatus • 4:39p, 3/7/23
AG
You are correct. This war is creating heroes, myths, and legends that will persist for millennia should Ukraine survive. But personally, I think Nathan Hale did it better.
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Smeghead4761
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5:08p, 3/7/23
Nice summary of the various stages of the evolution in Russian tactics over the last year+

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/01/31/evolution-of-russian-tactics-in-ukraine-from-failed-blitzkrieg-to-assault-infantry/
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74OA
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 5:44p, 3/7/23
AG
CondensedFogAggie said:

Posted right above me, but the now famous video of a Ukrainian soldier saying "Glory to Ukraine" after digging his own grave, and right before he was executed.

Rest in peace, Tymofiy Mykolayovych Shadura, born on January 7, 1982, of the Ukrainian 30th Mechanized.



……and his murderers felt comfortable publicizing the execution. Clearly they believe their Russian superiors support this conduct.
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74OA
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5:50p, 3/7/23
AG
Today's SITREP.
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Waffledynamics
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6:23p, 3/7/23
AG
Quote:
130 Ukrainian servicemen were released in a new prisoners swap with Russia
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/7-march-130-ukrainian-servicemen-were-released-in-a-new-prisoners
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lb3
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7:58p, 3/7/23
AG
Russians really need to quit smoking so much.

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Smeghead4761
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 12:59a, 3/8/23
MouthBQ98 said:
Well of course there is that? Just pointing out how vulnerable a T-62 is to modern weapons.
The M242 Bushmaster 25mm is 40+ years old. Not exactly modern.

The big thing about the T-62 is that it's vulnerable to the 105mm cannons found on the Leopard 1 and the M-60, especially without ERA.

And without ERA, the T-62 is much more vulnerable to older generation ATGMs like TOW-II and even -I, Milan, and a lot of the Soviet designed stuff the Ukrainians have.

(The T-62MV variant can be outfitted with ERA, in which case it is much less vulnerable to older HEAT rounds and ATGMs)

In any case, the vast majority of tank fights are won by the side that scores the first hit. That means that the most important things are being able to 1) Spot the other guy before he sees you, and 2) put rounds on target faster than he can do so. Most variants of the T-62 come off second best to most of the tanks Ukraine has, even the T-72 variants.
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Not a Bot
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6:20a, 3/8/23
AG




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