lb3 said:

---

Maybe the Russians haven't really entered the air war because their IFF tech doesn't work.

---

It probably works, but Ivan on the ground doesn't really care.
See plane, will fire missile

So to be clear, the Ukes are still holding on to Bahkmut?
I know Russian losses have been tremendous, but is it a bad sign that the Ukrainians have been unable to relieve the pressure on the beleaguered town?

Or do they deem it not worth the losses, since it doesn't have any strategic value

deddog said:

---

So to be clear, the Ukes are still holding on to Bahkmut?
I know Russian losses have been tremendous, but is it a bad sign that the Ukrainians have been unable to relieve the pressure on the beleaguered town?

Or do they deem it not worth the losses, since it doesn't have any strategic value

---

I think the idea is bleed the Russian out in terms of men and equipment; on that basis Bahkmut has been quite successful. Based on what I read in the past, there is really no strategic value to holding it at all costs.

Most people who have attached strategic importance to Bakhmut have done so in the sense that it is "where Ukraine chose to fight." Built into that view is a belief that if Ukraine has to fall back from Bakhmut, where they chose to fight hard and long, Russia will be able to roll into larger cities such as Kramatorsk.

In that sense, I've thought of it somewhat like Gettysburg…a town and location which itself lacked clear importance but was where the fight broke out.

I think that view largely lacks an appreciation for what Ukraine has done to bleed Russian resources and set up defenses west of Bakhmut. Or at least my understanding of what Ukraine has done.

TXAggie2011 said:

---

Most people who have attached strategic importance to Bakhmut have done so in the sense that it is "where Ukraine chose to fight." Built into that view is a belief that if Ukraine has to fall back from Bakhmut, where they chose to fight hard and long, Russia will be able to roll into larger cities such as Kramatorsk.

In that sense, I've thought of it somewhat like Gettysburg…a town and location which itself lacked clear importance but was where the fight broke out.

I think that view largely lacks an appreciation for what Ukraine has done to bleed Russian resources and set up defenses west of Bakhmut. Or at least my understanding of what Ukraine has done.

---

This is my take as well. A strategic null in the grand scheme of things but the Ukes where going to make a stand somewhere. Bakhmut was the name in the hat.

In my mind I have also decided that the Ukes are not using their entire national strength there. It is not their Stalingrad. They have used the minimum amount of force needed to hold as long as they have and get maximum damage on the Russians. I think they are husbanding their strength elsewhere for another large offensive. I have no real basis for thinking that though. It just makes sense to me. Heavy NATO equipment is already in transit, in Poland already, and probably even in Ukraine itself by now. Get it sorted out, wait for good conditions, go. Bakhmut would have accomplished it's job at that point.

As always though, we shall see.

So a planned fighting withdrawal that worked so well it turned I to a strategic
Delaying action.

Someone said it a number of pages ago…. When you're enemy is making mistakes don't stop them.

jobu93 said:

---

So a planned fighting withdrawal that worked so well it turned I to a strategic
Delaying action.

Someone said it a number of pages ago…. When you're enemy is making mistakes don't stop them.

---

'Your.'

It's around 11pm right now in Ukraine. Decent updates from The Guardian.

It's a brutal war. Strategically, only total war is morally justifiable, to some:

Quote:

---

Von Clausewitz breaks down war into three important aspects, "the military power, the country, and the will of the enemy"

---

Ukrainians having significant mud issues withdrawing from Bakhmut.

Videos reportedly from the last 48 hours which show Ukrainian Forces struggling to Withdraw from Bakhmut due to the state of the Dirt Roads to the West that they forced to use because Russian/Wagner Forces are currently in Control of all Paved Roads in and out of the City. pic.twitter.com/sfGkKHDX44

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 5, 2023

Seems that the 2nd Video has been Geolocated with this most likely being the same location as the other Video. https://t.co/lLEN6gDhMp

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 5, 2023

Ukrainian commander confirming what I've been fearing. Ukraine is wasting too much of its force proportional to Russia in defending Bakhmut.

Key section from this good piece. The ratio of losses worsened for Ukraine once it lost control of Bakhmut’s flanks. The conditions are less favorable for defending Bakhmut than Vuhledar/elsewhere and Kyiv needs as many forces as possible for its strategically critical offensive. https://t.co/8Qi2PqjfHM pic.twitter.com/ShhWAr6WOE

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 5, 2023

Absolutely horrible. I know there is a lot of propaganda out there but there is enough evidence floating around that I suspect this story/situation is true. The lack of respect for human life, even it's own citizens, by the Russian government is nothing short of evil. I do feel some sympathy to the common infantry man who is nothing more than a pawn piece for the oligarchy.

I'll be extremely surprised if we see a Ukrainian counterattack. I think Denys's title is more clickbait.

It's true that there are a lot of clickbait YouTubers all over this stuff. I haven't watched that one's stuff at all.

Ukrainian army convoy was destroyed by Russian artillery strikes as it tried to flee Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/WHyWaAdaHe

— LogKa (@LogKa11) March 5, 2023

Bakhmut is almost encircled.
The O0506 road through Khromove and the T0504 is unusable due to blown up bridges. The only way for ukrainian troops to retreat now through muddy fields” and under fire because command didn’t grant their request to retreat earlier. pic.twitter.com/Fz7hAYsxKB

— Sarah 🇺🇸 (@LoveOurTrump) March 6, 2023

Civilians still remain in Bakhmut. They cannot or don't want to leave.

Despite it being very dangerous, volunteers continue helping them.

📹: Volunteer Home/Instagram pic.twitter.com/8P0YxZIV7k

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 6, 2023

I know Zelensky has fired some key generals the past few months; it will be interesting to learn over time if some of these rumors as to his insistence on holding Bakhmut at all costs are true:

Ukraine's Hidden Power Struggle? Zelensky at Odds with Top Military Man - Report

The Ukrainian president has reportedly been facing a battle of his own behind the scenes with his most important general. It's claimed the fall out is over Artemovsk (Bakhmut) - and
1/ pic.twitter.com/Ufziq7GPPc

— 🇷🇺Jacob🇷🇺Charite🇷🇺 (@jaccocharite) March 6, 2023

Waffledynamics said:

---

I'll be extremely surprised if we see a Ukrainian counterattack. I think Denys's title is more clickbait.

---

I think we'll see one, just not at Bakhmut.

Agreed. Bakhmut is a relatively insignificant pile of rubble at this point, strategically speaking, also with the most Russian forces in/about it.

AgLA06 said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

I'll be extremely surprised if we see a Ukrainian counterattack. I think Denys's title is more clickbait.

---

I think we'll see one, just not at Bakhmut.

---

This. The Ukrainians did this before, with the Russians pushing harder and harder and concentrating more and more troops to push the Ukrainians out of a relatively meaningless town (was it Izyum?) and just when it looked like the Ukrainians would have to do a fighting retreat, the attacked the flanks with a major counter attack and encircled the entire group of orc troops, forcing them to abandon everything and retreat instead.

Weather reports show it above freezing and in that area there are a lot of non-paved areas so there may be some truth to Russia attacking during their retreat. If you go by the maps they are in Russia artillery range which also leads to a possible attack on convoys.

Guess we will find out in a couple days since both sides are good at propaganda.

The commander of Ukrainian ground forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, visited Bakhmut on March 5 – the third time since February 25.

Ukrainian military commanders have first-hand knowledge of the battlefront, whereas warlords of the Russian fascist invaders keep far away. pic.twitter.com/lEuAQ3unwL

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) March 6, 2023

“When you go out to the position, it’s not even a 50/50 chance that you’ll come out of there (alive). It’s more like 30/70.”

Good reporting here on the recent dynamic in the battle of Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces are now taking very heavy losses themselves. https://t.co/QuRkbgpbcS

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) March 6, 2023

This is worrying as Ukraine needs to show results to its Western backers to maintain support, and coming offensives (in Zaporizhzhye or elsewhere) already won't be easy. Bleeding troops into a lost and strategically meaningless defence of Bakhmut only makes that harder.

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) March 6, 2023

With a grain of salt

Source: https://t.co/wRY0Q0pgeB

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 5, 2023

Ukrainian soldiers have posted videos of their withdrawal attempts and getting stuck in the mud. They've lost dozens of vehicles due to mud. Russians now control the paved roads around the city. It appears a withdrawal was ordered too late and many Ukrainian soldiers are stuck.

Zelensky recently fired the general in charge of that area of Ukraine if I'm remembering correctly. Kind of makes you wonder if he's starting to meddle too much in the military day-to-day tactics. Hopefully not.

Not a Bot said:

---

Ukrainian soldiers have posted videos of their withdrawal attempts and getting stuck in the mud. They've lost dozens of vehicles due to mud. Russians now control the paved roads around the city. It appears a withdrawal was ordered too late and many Ukrainian soldiers are stuck.

Zelensky recently fired the general in charge of that area of Ukraine if I'm remembering correctly. Kind of makes you wonder if he's starting to meddle too much in the military day-to-day tactics. Hopefully not.

---

Or he came to the same conclusion you did in the first paragraph.

Rossticus said:

---

“When you go out to the position, it’s not even a 50/50 chance that you’ll come out of there (alive). It’s more like 30/70.”

Good reporting here on the recent dynamic in the battle of Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces are now taking very heavy losses themselves. https://t.co/QuRkbgpbcS

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) March 6, 2023

This is worrying as Ukraine needs to show results to its Western backers to maintain support, and coming offensives (in Zaporizhzhye or elsewhere) already won't be easy. Bleeding troops into a lost and strategically meaningless defence of Bakhmut only makes that harder.

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) March 6, 2023

---

I promise not to interfere in the Verlander marriage.

Ukrain had a good thing going in Bakhmut but it looks they likely waited too long.

History shows that withdrawals are complex maneuvers to execute whether it's Saigon or Kabul. And doing so while engaged with and surrounded by the enemy is even more difficult. During the Battle of Chosin Reservoir you can see examples of a well executed plan by the 1st Marine Division and a poorly executed one by the Army's 7th Infantry Division.

What I can tell with Ukraine is that comm integration between battalions or higher don't appear to exist, as evidenced by a recent Uke battalion being destroyed when another battalion withdrew from their flank without informing them.

Does anyone have a good idea as to the total number of Ukrainian troops still in Bakhmut?

I've also been curious but no real data on that. Something like 4,000 residents, and I would guess half that or less in terms of soldiers/troops. Utterly brutal.

Quote:

---

What happens if Ukrainian forces retreat from Bakhmut?

If Bakhmut were to fall into Russian hands, it would represent a rare, if symbolic, victory in the Russian war effortthe first to occur since Moscow's capture of the eastern Ukrainian town of Soledar earlier this year. For Ukraine, it would offer a similarly symbolic lossits first major territorial concession since the summer, as well as a hit to overall morale.

But experts such as Hird say that this is where Bakhmut's significance ends. The city would not afford Moscow any major strategic advantage, though Prigozhin has warned about the costs of losing the city. If anything, Hird says, the manpower and resources incurred in the process of its capture may likely prevent Russia from launching another prolonged offensive operation in the coming months.

"There's been a little bit of panic in Western media about what it means if Bakhmut falls, and I think it means the same thing that it meant back in summer of 2022 when Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell," says Hird, referencing the territories Ukraine withdrew from over the summer. "This isn't going to be a turning point in the war in any sort of concrete sense. In fact, it will probably allow Ukrainians the opportunity to regain the initiative once this offensive has culminated and pursue their own array of counteroffensive options."

---

Realistically, I would venture a guess it is closer to 200-500 hardcore troops in quasi-organized groups remaining. Again, this is just a guess. Apparently it's an open question whether they or the Russians run out of ammo first.

Can't just dash out when the ground is mud and roads are covered by fire spotted by drones. They needed to withdraw while they still had cross country mobility. Now they will have to go on foot and possibly under fire. Best at night.

Very battle of the bulge sort of withdraw. Spilt up in teams and make your way to back as best you can. Good luck

And they will still respect Scholtz in the morning…

Various outlets now reporting Zelensky has decided to continue defensive operations in #Bakhmut. This tracks with statements from Dep. Defense Minister Malyar last week. My assessment on what would be required to successfully carry that out stands.

Map courtesy of @TheStudyofWar pic.twitter.com/8mZrkk94fX

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) March 6, 2023

Rossticus said:

---

With a grain of salt

Source: https://t.co/wRY0Q0pgeB

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 5, 2023

---

As we've discovered over the last 70+ years (especially the last dozen or so), the ChiComs say many things, but at the end of the day they will behave like ChiComs and every other communist country always have.

Germany to procure hundreds of Australian combat vehicles.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_march_2023_global_security_army_industry/germany_to_possibly_buy_large_number_of_boxer_armored_vehicles_made_in_australia.html

Poland to procure 1,400 indigenously produced IFV's to replace their Soviet era BMP's

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/poland-signs-framework-for-1400-infantry-fighting-vehicles/

Rossticus said:

---

With a grain of salt

Quote:

---

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated today that China has declared to the German Government that they will not provide Lethal Aid to Russia for their War against Ukraine.

---

---