***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,808,664 Views | 48279 Replies | Last: 29 min ago by BoDog
Waffledynamics
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Armored Vehicle Launched Bridges, you say?

74OA
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Ukraine likely must soon either reinforce or withdraw from what remains of Bakhmut as Russia seems poised to take possession of the ruins in the near future. Reports say Ukraine has already built a line of fallback fortifications along a ridge a few miles west of Bakhmut. So, after nine months of fighting and tens of thousands of Russian casualties, apparently the operational payoff from Bakhmut's fall will be to slightly shift the meatgrinder to a nearby location.

Hopefully, though, Bakhmut will turn out to be the Pyrrhic victory that Putin deserves: "They apparently have used Bakhmut, and the Kremlin's weird obsession with the town, to bleed Russian forces and, in so doing, set the conditions for a long-planned spring offensive."

BAKHMUT
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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revvie
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74OA said:

Ukraine likely must soon either reinforce or withdraw from what remains of Bakhmut as Russia seems poised to take possession of the ruins in the near future. Reports say Ukraine has already built a line of fallback fortifications along a ridge a few miles west of Bakhmut. So, after nine months of fighting and tens of thousands of Russian casualties, apparently the operational payoff from Bakhmut's fall will be to slightly shift the meatgrinder to a nearby location.

Hopefully, though, Bakhmut will turn out to be the Pyrrhic victory that Putin deserves: "They apparently have used Bakhmut, and the Kremlin's weird obsession with the town, to bleed Russian forces and, in so doing, set the conditions for a long-planned spring offensive."

BAKHMUT
I know that Bakhmut is smaller than Mariupol, but Ukraine had a year to propare for the siege. Also much closer to Ukrainian positions to northwest. IMHO Ukraine will bleed Russian as long as feasibily possible and still be able to exfiltrate their troops.
Waffledynamics
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lb3
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Maybe the Russians haven't really entered the air war because their IFF tech doesn't work.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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I won't post the footage, but I just saw a horrific video of a drone dropping a grenade on a Russian soldier in a foxhole. The man's face was blown completely off. What a nightmare. How can Russia possibly find this worth it?
Waffledynamics
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Short, inspiring video of NATO's mission in this war. It also debunks some lies.

Jetpilot86
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They seem to be completely brainwashed unless they go to the front.
nortex97
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nortex97
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Meant to add: the soar earth map/tools are actually very interesting to those looking at specifics: elevation, updated satellite views, etc.

ShotOver
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Serious question: Why do the Russian people continue to tolerate this? Seems as though at least the young people, (20-40ish), would be better informed and protest this war…are they that brainwashed to believe Putin's BS? Those of you who are more in the know than me…is there any sign of an uprising against this insanity?
revvie
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ShotOver said:

Serious question: Why do the Russian people continue to tolerate this? Seems as though at least the young people, (20-40ish), would be better informed and protest this war…are they that brainwashed to believe Putin's BS? Those of you who are more in the know than me…is there any sign of an uprising against this insanity?
About 500 thousand protested with their feet and left the country.
FamousAgg
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I would say they ran from conscription
Ag97
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Maybe they are being promised land and treasure from the conquered areas. Has worked as a viable incentive since we started walking this earth.

nortex97
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ShotOver said:

Serious question: Why do the Russian people continue to tolerate this? Seems as though at least the young people, (20-40ish), would be better informed and protest this war…are they that brainwashed to believe Putin's BS? Those of you who are more in the know than me…is there any sign of an uprising against this insanity?
It's less unpopular than one might think. Still, the reality is probably more nuanced, behind closed doors. but really, that is pretty irrelevant. Kim Jong Il, the mullah's, and whoever's running Cuba today are also unpopular in their home countries, very likely.

If it mattered, Zelensky has gotten a much higher proportion of military age males in Ukraine killed (and closed the border etc), but he's not facing significant street opposition/protests either.
GAC06
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"Gotten them killed" meaning defending their country from invasion?
benchmark
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nortex97 said:

If it mattered, Zelensky has gotten a much higher proportion of military age males in Ukraine killed (and closed the border etc), but he's not facing significant street opposition/protests either.
Good grief.
RebelE Infantry
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ShotOver said:

Serious question: Why do the Russian people continue to tolerate this? Seems as though at least the young people, (20-40ish), would be better informed and protest this war…are they that brainwashed to believe Putin's BS? Those of you who are more in the know than me…is there any sign of an uprising against this insanity?


Much of the political pressure Putin is facing is from a significant portion of the people screaming for all out war against Ukraine. They see Putin as indecisive and overly legalistic. The fact is that he is widely popular and faces little to no opposition from a Liberal faction.
The flames of the Imperium burn brightly in the hearts of men repulsed by degenerate modernity. Souls aflame with love of goodness, truth, beauty, justice, and order.
nortex97
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benchmark said:

nortex97 said:

If it mattered, Zelensky has gotten a much higher proportion of military age males in Ukraine killed (and closed the border etc), but he's not facing significant street opposition/protests either.
Good grief.
Ukraine has/had something like 478K vs. 1.2 million of military age for Russia. Zelensky, leading the war from his side, by all accounts called off peace negotiations early and has taken a hard line on the territories occupied today/since 2014 by Russia.

Casualties between the belligerents are tough to estimate (plausibly, it might be around 30/70, with more Russians killed), though 5 plus million refugees have fled Ukraine.
AgLA06
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[If you're going to be disrespectful to other posters then take a break -- Staff]
DapperDanMan
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https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/russians_installed_ships_anti_aircraft_gun_on_the_mt_lb_armored_vehicle-5937.html

Russia has an interesting new anti-drone system.
Slava Ukraini!
74OA
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benchmark said:

nortex97 said:

If it mattered, Zelensky has gotten a much higher proportion of military age males in Ukraine killed (and closed the border etc), but he's not facing significant street opposition/protests either.
Good grief.
He posts simply to provoke a reaction, not to offer a legit "alternative viewpoint".

Zelensky isn't facing significant opposition because he's hugely popular and Ukrainians are willing to do what it takes to defend their country. The truth is Ukraine participated in negotiations with Russia right up to the day of invasion and only stopped then when it became brutally apparent that Putin had no intention of negotiating in good faith.

The pre-war Ukrainian population included roughly 11M males between the ages of 15 and 53, so even if fully half are currently unavailable for service (e.g., age, infirmity, fled, casualty, etc.) that still leaves millions to draw on, even before willing women are included. A lack of manpower won't be the deciding factor in this war.
Red Pear Realty
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Don't feed the trolls.
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
Build It
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Because he doesn't send the boys from Moscow and and St Petersburg. They are all in holiday in Turkey until this is over.
Waffledynamics
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Bakhmut still holds. Not much change there yet. Denys thinks a counter attack will be elsewhere this spring. Russian progress in the Bakhmut area seems to be hampered by mud. Another Ukrainian infantry unit did leave Bakhmut, however.

Waffledynamics
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Genius.

Waffledynamics
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Full ISW Update: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-4-2023

Quote:

Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning action against certain parts of Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw and will not likely be able to encircle the city soon.
  • The purpose of a turning movement is to force the enemy to abandon prepared defensive positions and is different from the aim of an encirclement, which is to trap and destroy enemy forces. The Russians may have intended to encircle Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signaled that it will likely withdraw rather than risk an encirclement.
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Eastern Military District Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov in western Donetsk Oblast, likely to assess the extent of Russian losses around Vuhledar and the possibility of a further offensive in this direction.
  • The Chinese government is reportedly angry with the Kremlin over the publicization of arms sales discussions.
  • Russian State Duma Defense Committee Head Andrey Kartapalov encouraged Russian companies to purchase their own air defense systems to defend against drones.
  • The Wagner Group reportedly opened at least three new recruitment centers at Russian sports clubs between March 2-4, possibly to augment Wagner's recruitment base after losing access to prisoner recruits.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Bakhmut and conduct ground attacks along the Donetsk Oblast front line.
  • Ukrainian sources continue to report that Russian forces are trying to set conditions for offensive operations in southern Ukraine.
  • Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues apparent efforts to increase Chechen influence within Russia through promoting Chechnya's Special Forces (SPETSNAZ) and youth policy efforts.
  • Russian occupation administrations are strengthening law enforcement measures in occupied territories.


lb3
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For those who quit following James, here are his past few tweets:






Waffledynamics
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That almost has to be Bakhmut or Kreminna that he's been sent to.
Smeghead4761
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RebelE Infantry said:

ShotOver said:

Serious question: Why do the Russian people continue to tolerate this? Seems as though at least the young people, (20-40ish), would be better informed and protest this war…are they that brainwashed to believe Putin's BS? Those of you who are more in the know than me…is there any sign of an uprising against this insanity?


Much of the political pressure Putin is facing is from a significant portion of the people screaming for all out war against Ukraine. They see Putin as indecisive and overly legalistic. The fact is that he is widely popular and faces little to no opposition from a Liberal faction.
There was an article I read a month or two ago (which, of course, I can't find now) that talked about how the sinking of the Kursk, and the backlash that flowed from it, taught Putin early in his rule about the need to control the press and manage information.

Since then, not much goes out in Russian media that deviates from the approved Kremlin line.
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