Good article from RCD as to how/why Putin, and Russian politics in general, strategically cannot end the Ukraine war:

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The third reason involves the growth in the number of beneficiaries, if not of the war itself, then of active support for it. Today, the public ratings of not only federal but also regional as well as local authorities depend on their degree of involvement in the war. As one experts point out, in the face of the threat of an external enemy, a "depoliticization of ideas of social justice [takes place], that is, its transfer from internal socioeconomic problems to the level of international politics and the special military operation as an event aimed at protecting the national interests of the country and restoring social justice" (T.me/russica2, February 11).

This is also understood by regional political scientists, who openly note that "support for the [special military operation] guarantees votes in elections" and explain how this has influenced the growing popularity of specific governors (Russia-rating.ru, December 28, 2022). As a result, both federal and regional authorities are trying to stand out as much as possible in supporting those who came to Ukraine armed and ready to kill its citizens.

Some Russian State Duma deputies propose involving these officials in teaching at schools in the occupied territories and promise to support them when they are nominated for elections. They also regularly report on measures taken to support "participants of the [special military operation]" (Kp.ru, January 14). Such a policy greatly raises the status of people returning from the war. This, in turn, creates the fourth reason for the impossibility of ending the warthat is, not only the increase in the number of radical patriots but also an increase in their influence in Russian society.

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nortex97 said:

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Good article from RCD as to how/why Putin, and Russian politics in general, strategically cannot end the Ukraine war:

Quote:

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The third reason involves the growth in the number of beneficiaries, if not of the war itself, then of active support for it. Today, the public ratings of not only federal but also regional as well as local authorities depend on their degree of involvement in the war. As one experts point out, in the face of the threat of an external enemy, a "depoliticization of ideas of social justice [takes place], that is, its transfer from internal socioeconomic problems to the level of international politics and the special military operation as an event aimed at protecting the national interests of the country and restoring social justice" (T.me/russica2, February 11).

This is also understood by regional political scientists, who openly note that "support for the [special military operation] guarantees votes in elections" and explain how this has influenced the growing popularity of specific governors (Russia-rating.ru, December 28, 2022). As a result, both federal and regional authorities are trying to stand out as much as possible in supporting those who came to Ukraine armed and ready to kill its citizens.

Some Russian State Duma deputies propose involving these officials in teaching at schools in the occupied territories and promise to support them when they are nominated for elections. They also regularly report on measures taken to support "participants of the [special military operation]" (Kp.ru, January 14). Such a policy greatly raises the status of people returning from the war. This, in turn, creates the fourth reason for the impossibility of ending the warthat is, not only the increase in the number of radical patriots but also an increase in their influence in Russian society.

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Who is this guy?

Listening to Putin’s latest Speech there is NO DOUBT we are fighting a Spiritual War between Good and Evil and he is on the side of Good!
If you tune out the MSM & look at the history, it’s NATO & our government that is at fault, NOT Russia!
How can anyone still trust this… https://t.co/ip0kh3hbQf pic.twitter.com/R92KppNC4Z

— ꪻꫝể ꪻꫝể (@TheThe1776) March 1, 2023

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CpRF60IJx1C/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

No idea, looks like pure propaganda akin to Biden's red speech.

The dynamics in Russia make it challenging to see any Russian leader, post-Putin, likely to emerge which would quickly 'withdraw from the crimea and all pre-invasion positions/territory boundaries' though.

There continues to be a dearth of efforts to push toward truce/ceasefire negotiations, from what I can see. Russia demands Crimean annexations be accepted as a precondition:

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"There are certain realities that have already become domestic in RussiaI mean the new Russian territories," Peskov said, according to the Russian state-controlled media outlet Tass. "There is the Constitution of the Russian Federation, which cannot be ignored by anyone, and which the Russian side will never be able to give up."

He continued, "These are very important realities. And there are also certain goals of the Russian Federation, which she performs during the SVO [spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya, or special military operation]."

Since Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian officials have remained firm that Crimea, which Putin annexed in 2014, must remain part of its nation in any future peace talks. In addition, the Kremlin maintains that four additional territories it illegitimately annexed this past September must also be recognized as Russian.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has said that any peace deal must invalidate the four recent annexations and that Crimea must again be considered part of Ukraine.

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The intensity of fighting in/around Bakhmut is only increasing, and Ukrainians are pulling back.

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Russian media: RosGuard with MLRS GRAD to be deployed in Klimovo district of Briansk region to fight saboteurs

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-march-russian-media-rosguard-with-mlrs-grad-to-be-deployed

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Russian FSB border guards reported clashes with violators of the state border in Klimovo district of Briansk region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-march-russian-fsb-border-guards-reported-clashes-with-violators

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Russian media report hostage-taking situation in Sushany village of Briansk region, according to report 6 people could be taken hostages. Blame Ukrainian saboteur group

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-march-russian-media-report-hostagetaking-situation-in-sushany

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Russian media claim 2 children wounded in Lyubechane village of Bryansk village with small arms fire, blame Ukrainian saboteur group

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-march-russian-media-claim-2-children-wounded-in-lyubechane

Well that's all interesting, because:

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Several videos of "Russian volunteer corps" appeared online, taking responsibility for the clashes in Briansk region of Russia

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-march-several-videos-of-russian-volunteer-corps-appeared

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"Russian volunteer corps": we are not fighting with civilians, calls for arms to fight Putin's army. "Death to Kremlin's tyrant"

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-march-russian-volunteer-corps-we-are-not-fighting-with

And the final laughable moment:

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Authorities of Briansk region now dismiss all reports about "dozens of saboteurs", "explosions at infrastructure", "dozens of hostages" as "Ukrainian disinformation campaign"

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-march-authorities-of-briansk-region-now-dismiss-all-reports

Your FSB reported it, did they not, Russia?

They don't maintain their aircraft well. All the rust and peeling paint.

Anyone else not surprised at the state of the russian A-50U dome? Rusted and dented.

Or that the airfield essentially appears to be unguarded without a soldier in sight?

Sure sounds like a few people here...

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Sure sounds like a few people putin-bots here...

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FIFY

nortex97 said:

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No idea, looks like pure propaganda akin to Biden's red speech.

The dynamics in Russia make it challenging to see any Russian leader, post-Putin, likely to emerge which would quickly 'withdraw from the crimea and all pre-invasion positions/territory boundaries' though.

There continues to be a dearth of efforts to push toward truce/ceasefire negotiations, from what I can see. Russia demands Crimean annexations be accepted as a precondition:

Quote:

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"There are certain realities that have already become domestic in RussiaI mean the new Russian territories," Peskov said, according to the Russian state-controlled media outlet Tass. "There is the Constitution of the Russian Federation, which cannot be ignored by anyone, and which the Russian side will never be able to give up."

He continued, "These are very important realities. And there are also certain goals of the Russian Federation, which she performs during the SVO [spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya, or special military operation]."

Since Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian officials have remained firm that Crimea, which Putin annexed in 2014, must remain part of its nation in any future peace talks. In addition, the Kremlin maintains that four additional territories it illegitimately annexed this past September must also be recognized as Russian.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has said that any peace deal must invalidate the four recent annexations and that Crimea must again be considered part of Ukraine.

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The intensity of fighting in/around Bakhmut is only increasing, and Ukrainians are pulling back.

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It never ceases to amaze me how what you post doesn't even match the article you post. Somehow a more negative version.

"So far they've held the city, but if need be, they will strategically pull back because we're not going to sacrifice all of our people just for nothing."

Russian forces have assaulted Bakhmut for months in an attempt to capture the city and gain a foothold in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region.

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Security Service of Ukraine detained Russian saboteur attempting to blow up transportation infrastructure in Rivne

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-march-security-service-of-ukraine-detained-russian-saboteur



This happened at the highlighted handcuffs icon.

AgLA06 said:

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Anyone else not surprised at the state of the russian A-50U dome? Rusted and dented.

Or that the airfield essentially appears to be unguarded without a soldier in sight?

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TBF, maintenance is expensive and often deferred even in our air force. F-22's have been seen with peeling paint and skin issues, likely because maintaining their stealth coatings for non-combat operations just isn't worth it.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Anyone else not surprised at the state of the russian A-50U dome? Rusted and dented.

Or that the airfield essentially appears to be unguarded without a soldier in sight?

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TBF, maintenance is expensive and often deferred even in our air force. F-22's have been seen with peeling paint and skin issues, likely because maintaining their stealth coatings for non-combat operations just isn't worth it.

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Sure. But I don't remember any of our planes during war time in an active war zone like that. Because we were prioritizing them.

lb3 said:

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Our hero under heavy fire one on one with an APC 😳

Books should be written about these people, and they are just silently defending our country #Ukraine !!!! pic.twitter.com/rnXeoqn0J3

— Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 (@Heroiam_Slava) March 1, 2023

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This video is crazy. Would love to hear how this turned out.

Considering a BMP had him fixed in place at close range in addition to a guy with lots of RPG while others were assaulting, I'm guessing chances weren't good. Doesn't appear he had a way to take out the BMP.

@GeoConfirmed
Russian IFVs being destroyed at 48.110168, 37.683090 Vodyane, Donetsk Oblast.https://t.co/9t3Mh2lQRI pic.twitter.com/sydbzsnbUk

— Arvelleg (@Arvelleg1) March 2, 2023

Couldn't have been good. I'm wondering where the overlapping fields of fire were. Other positions likely already engaged? Regardless, that is a tough spot to be in if your trench isn't long enough for you to pop up in a different location out of the MBP's immediate field of view.

Ukes are dying in Bakhmut in large numbers. The Russians are just dying in even larger numbers.

Unfortunately for the Ukes, wars of attrition with larger neighbors are usually unsustainable. Zeihan is taking a macro view of the war and feels that the Ukes need to up their casualty ratios from about 3:1 currently to about 8:1 in order to succeed. Unless the Ukes can break into the rear, I'm not sure how they achieve that.

lb3 said:

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Couldn't have been good. I'm wondering where the overlapping fields of fire were. Other positions likely already engaged? Regardless, that is a tough spot to be in if your trench isn't long enough for you to pop up in a different location out of the MBP's immediate field of view.

Ukes are dying in Bakhmut in large numbers. The Russians are just dying in even larger numbers.

Unfortunately for the Ukes, wars of attrition with larger neighbors are usually unsustainable. Zeihan is taking a macro view of the war and feels that the Ukes need to up their casualty ratios from about 3:1 currently to about 8:1 in order to succeed. Unless the Ukes can break into the rear, I'm not sure how they achieve that.

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Defensive meatgrinders like Severodonetsk and Bakhmut.

AgLA06 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Anyone else not surprised at the state of the russian A-50U dome? Rusted and dented.

Or that the airfield essentially appears to be unguarded without a soldier in sight?

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TBF, maintenance is expensive and often deferred even in our air force. F-22's have been seen with peeling paint and skin issues, likely because maintaining their stealth coatings for non-combat operations just isn't worth it.

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Sure. But I don't remember any of our planes during war time in an active war zone like that. Because we were prioritizing them.

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I'm not sure it's mission critical and "in an active war zone" though. It's in Belarus, so it's only supporting operations in a limited capacity, if at all. There's only one there, so availability/readiness isn't a huge concern. All things considered, they've got bigger concerns at the moment.

What should be more concerning is the lack of security, both on the flight line and around the base. It seems there's no system in place to keep this from happening again. Deferring maintenance is thing, but losing an aircraft altogether is something else. If they could land a drone on the thing, they could easily suicide drone it and destroy the dome. I have no doubt they successfully attacked it. Question is how much damage was done

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Loud explosion was reported in Kolomna of Moscow region, audible across the town

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-march-loud-explosion-was-reported-in-kolomna-of-moscow

BREAKING: Kadyrov is very bad - a well-known nephrologist urgently flew out of the UAE, as he doesn't trust Russian doctors. Some report that he was poisoned, others say he has kidney failure https://t.co/JE4n55xvrT

— AlexandruC4 (@AlexandruC4) March 1, 2023

Something else for the Russians to worry about?

There is some crazy stuff going on today. Reports of explosions outside Moscow, Chechen warlord and Putin boot licker possibly poisoned, and Russian Nationals attacking towns in Russia's Bryansk region.

I can't find anything really on this and consider it a rumor at this time.

Confirmed dead unfortunately. His body pic was floating around a couple of days ago in the bottom of the trench. Looked like a few others Ukes were captured in the same action.

Still wild to me to see how sparsely manned some of these defensive works are. On both sides. For being one of the more massive conflicts this world has seen in recent memory there is a lot of men dying seemingly alone or with maybe one other nearby. Which is horrible to me.

Eliminatus said:

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Confirmed dead unfortunately. His body pic was floating around a couple of days ago in the bottom of the trench. Looked like a few others Ukes were captured in the same action.

Still wild to me to see how sparsely manned some of these defensive works are. On both sides. For being one of the more massive conflicts this world has seen in recent memory there is a lot of men dying seemingly alone or with maybe one other nearby. Which is horrible to me.

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this is why there are only a few thousand dead each week- versus 50,000 dead in a week during WWII

there are just much smaller units fighting over the same territory as in 1943-44

Touchless said:

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lb3 said:

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Our hero under heavy fire one on one with an APC 😳

Books should be written about these people, and they are just silently defending our country #Ukraine !!!! pic.twitter.com/rnXeoqn0J3

— Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 (@Heroiam_Slava) March 1, 2023

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This video is crazy. Would love to hear how this turned out.

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The more I watch this honestly I think it is fake. The reason I say this is two things. First he doesn't even look like he's even trying to duck down in the trench with all that fire coming in and second the explosions that take place right by him don't even move him. I'm calling this a fake.

If the Ukrainian defenses are so thin, and the Russian attackers don't really number that many more, the attacking formations have to be pretty thin in many places too, right? That screams strategic attack as a defense to me. Put them off balance and take territory back.

Yup. I had a post writeup that TA ate and I got butthurt and just ended up responding to the above. But I had mentioned how everything seems to be squadbased or lighter. It is just happening everywhere. Similar to what we saw early occupational phases of Iraq. Just small batches of dudes running around and sometimes colliding and butchering each other.

Artillery is still King of the battlefield and positive why this is why the fighting has devolved to this. Well, along with some lack of training as well. But any group of men gets chopped up pretty badly. This video below just came out a couple of days ago of a squad of Russians in the open. They did not have a good time. Dumbasses still can't figure out dispersion. Especially out in the open.

The night movement of the Russian infantry was interrupted by Ukrainian artillery. pic.twitter.com/SK5dO3xAh0

— Paul Jawin (@PaulJawin) March 1, 2023

Russia really nervous over proposition of Ukraine gaining air capabilities. Question is, what would they realistically do about it? They have virtually no means of military response apart from nukes, and that gets Russia one headed right back at them. Only other options are cyber warfare and infrastructure sabotage, which aren't likely to be sufficiently deterrent.

The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated today that if Combat Aircraft that are Transferred to Ukraine are in any way resupplied or repaired in a NATO Country such as Poland than this would mean the direct entry of this Country into the War. pic.twitter.com/KSRn77Q9cj

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 2, 2023

Rossticus said:

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Russia really nervous over proposition of Ukraine gaining air capabilities. Question is, what would they realistically do about it? They have virtually no means of response apart from nukes, and that gets Russia one headed right back at them.

The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated today that if Combat Aircraft that are Transferred to Ukraine are in any way resupplied or repaired in a NATO Country such as Poland than this would mean the direct entry of this Country into the War. pic.twitter.com/KSRn77Q9cj

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 2, 2023

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Ha. Right. Go on, punch Poland. See how THAT turns out. Russia's no more going to do anything about that than they have done so far. They're stupid, not suicidal.

Soldiers with patches of the flags of #Mali, #Palistine, & #Ossetia apparently fighting on behalf of #Russia

RUS tried to use Wagner's footprint to recruit in Africa w/ limited success. Heavy losses in Ossetian units early in the war ended support for RUS

No idea re: Palestine pic.twitter.com/14NCJzQh0Y

— ʘPSEC? (@GuinieZoo_Intel) March 2, 2023

Kadyrov is not happy with what happened in Bryansk region today.

"Take retaliatory measures against Kyiv. Just bomb all the points that are directly or indirectly related to this attack. And you don’t need to look that there may be civilian objects nearby" pic.twitter.com/QfrZBDmHfy

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) March 2, 2023

#Breaking #NewsMap
Russian invasion forces broke through the Ukrainian defense in eastern Bakhmut and captured around 20 high rise residential and business buildings. pic.twitter.com/p4vV1wyLaB

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) March 2, 2023

docb said:

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Touchless said:

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lb3 said:

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Our hero under heavy fire one on one with an APC 😳

Books should be written about these people, and they are just silently defending our country #Ukraine !!!! pic.twitter.com/rnXeoqn0J3

— Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 (@Heroiam_Slava) March 1, 2023

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This video is crazy. Would love to hear how this turned out.

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The more I watch this honestly I think it is fake. The reason I say this is two things. First he doesn't even look like he's even trying to duck down in the trench with all that fire coming in and second the explosions that take place right by him don't even move him. I'm calling this a fake.

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Basis of that? He is down pretty well in that trench. Angle looks like bullets are hitting all around him at head height but it is actually going over. Enough to be in relative safety. Relative key word there. A well disciplined soldier, or lost in the combat haze, would not bother with ducking in that situation. It would prevent you from responding in kind, which he is doing and doing every well. He engaged back with at least three grenade launches. And definitely saw him flinch down on close blasts but then immediately correct and reengage.

You ever been suppressed by heavy automatic weaponry? Not saying that to try to call you out or anything I promise but truly curious. This is not only real as **** to me, but he performed above and beyond. Especially if just a new soldier himself. He never stopped fighting the entire time. It is actually literally a hallmark of a seasoned soldier to NOT overreact under fire and remain cool, calm, and collected. Just like I see here.