Moldova has an extremely weak military that relies on 50+ year old Soviet equipment. They have one S-125 anti aircraft system so unless they get help you can bring in a few hundred paratroopers and take over an airport.

6500 troops total

143rd of 145 for military strength

AgLA06 said:

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rgag12 said:

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Not a Bot said:

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This comes after the Moldovan Prime Minister stated he has heard the same thing.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 21, 2023

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Unless Moldova has zero military, I don't see how an operation like that is going to end in success. (For Russia)

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Essentially no airforce.

Less than 6k men in their army.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_the_Republic_of_Moldova

If Russia could land airborne troops and follow with a seaborn invasion force and launch an offensive from Crimea in a pencher movement, Odessa would not be fun.

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I still don't think an operation to take an airport would be advisable for Russia. You don't need a whole lot of people to ultimately repel an attack like that. So many things would have to go right, and if only one thing goes wrong the operation is toast

Who is Russia going to overfly to land airborne troops?

GAC06 said:

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The idea of a seaborne invasion was put to bed by sinking their cruiser I'd think. Now if they had taken Odessa it would seem likely to continue west

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Yeah. No way the Russians try anything in the black sea with naval assets. They know we, and by extension the Ukrainians, are watching and will have plenty of notice about where they are and where they're headed. They know they're extremely vulnerable to shore based missiles, and they're not going to risk that kind of operation.

GAC06 said:

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Who is Russia going to overfly to land airborne troops?

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In the Czech invasion, the initial landing at the airport was by a "civilian" plane with operators in plain clothes that requested an emergency landing. They secured the airport for larger forces.

Ukraine or they could go a sea route that goes over no other countries. They would either have to leave from the west coast of Crimea. Unless they have MI18s in the Kherson area they would not have the fuel to go there and back without aerial refueling or stealing from the airport. Their protection would be MI24s that could barely make it to the capital leaving from Crimea.

Seems like a waste of assets, if they even have them, and it would put Russia right next to a NATO member. Would definitely escalate tensions in the area and for what? Unless they are going to push an offensive against NATO it makes no sense to do this.

Yeah but both Ukraine and Romania's airspace is closed to Russia. They'd have to overfly one of those to get to Moldova. I guess they could use a third party country to originate a flight but then what? You've captured an airport in a country surrounded by a NATO country and a country you are at war with.

I don't think there's any way Russia would try this. I think this is more likely laying the groundwork for Ukraine to cross the border into Transnistria. There's only something like 1,500 Russian peacekeeping troops there and it's home to the largest soviet era ammunition depot in Europe.

Nm

RebelE Infantry said:

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I don't think there's any way Russia would try this. I think this is more likely laying the groundwork for Ukraine to cross the border into Transnistria. There's only something like 1,500 Russian peacekeeping troops there and it's home to the largest soviet era ammunition depot in Europe.

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Correct. This was one of their objectives in the South. It was a pincer from west and east to take Mariupol and west to secure Kherson and then push to Odessa and link up into Moldova in a move similar to South Ossetia once their tiff with Ukraine was settled. But they failed. They were forced to spend a lot of effort, time and lives plus equipment in Mariupol. They took Kherson but were stopped short of Odessa and then rolled back. The Russians made several naval moves towards Odessa as well but there aren't a ton of good landing spots near Odessa so the sinking of the Moskova and other naval losses and subsequent mining operations have made all of that a non starter.

Now if you remember back to the opening hours/days of the war the Russians did attempt to take several airports. Most significantly they attempted to take on outside of Kyiv and failed. A force of Ukrainian troops stiffened by a number of foreign volunteers (mostly English speaking) fought off several attempts by their airborne and helicopter troops backed up by fighters and the Russians lost a lot of their higher quality troops in the attempt. There were numerous reports at the time (at this distance I can't remember how credible they were) that the Russians had troop planes in the air ready to land at a captured airfield. This would have probably included some light armor to attempt to rush the capital.

That would likely be significantly more likely to succeed in Moldova but again running those assets across Romanian or Ukrainian airspace would be suicidal.

GAC06 said:

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Yeah but both Ukraine and Romania's airspace is closed to Russia. They'd have to overfly one of those to get to Moldova. I guess they could use a third party country to originate a flight but then what? You've captured an airport in a country surrounded by a NATO country and a country you are at war with.

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Yep. Only way this makes sense is if it is backed by the navy.

RebelE Infantry said:

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I don't think there's any way Russia would try this. I think this is more likely laying the groundwork for Ukraine to cross the border into Transnistria. There's only something like 1,500 Russian peacekeeping troops there and it's home to the largest soviet era ammunition depot in Europe.

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I think you are out of your mind if you think Ukraine has any intention of opening a new front in the war that would force them to split forces in another direction. Which of the Putin-bot telegram channels is pushing that idea?

It is much more likely that Russia wants the airport in Moldova so they can fly in large scale reinforcements and open a new front pushing towards Odessa from the west.

Opposite. Those Russia troops, equipment, and munitions are always a threat sitting in a tiny country on the other side of Ukraine from the fighting.

Of surprised they haven't removed them so far.

Would be interesting to see how (or if) Russian invasion of a second country would change the dynamic of European response.

AgLA06 said:

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Opposite. Those Russia troops, equipment, and munitions are always a threat sitting in a tiny country on the other side of Ukraine from the fighting.

Of surprised they haven't removed them so far.

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~1,500 Russian troops are not a threat to do more than cause some trouble and right now, Russia doesn't have a great way to reinforce them with anything. They need the airport to get the supplies out or to get more troops in, since they cannot send them out via roads through Ukraine. The supplies in that depot would be very valuable to Russia right now.

RebelE Infantry said:

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I don't think there's any way Russia would try this. I think this is more likely laying the groundwork for Ukraine to cross the border into Transnistria. There's only something like 1,500 Russian peacekeeping troops there and it's home to the largest soviet era ammunition depot in Europe.

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First I'd heard of the depot. After looking it up, wow that thing is close to the border. Like rock throwing distance. I imagine Ukraine could make that thing spectacularly disappear whenever they feel like it.

Ok, a little far fetched, but…

Imagine a scenario where the Orcs were bold enough to try this and bring in a lot of assets only to find out after the fact that the Moldovans had strategically booby trapped the complex with remotely detonated C4.

Blow up a bunch of Orcs and assets or significantly degrade the airport, so no flights can occur after detonation.

Hollywood'ish but sabotage may have some potential applicability here.

Why does such a weak small military have such a large ammo depot? Makes no sense.

GAC06 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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I don't think there's any way Russia would try this. I think this is more likely laying the groundwork for Ukraine to cross the border into Transnistria. There's only something like 1,500 Russian peacekeeping troops there and it's home to the largest soviet era ammunition depot in Europe.

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First I'd heard of the depot. After looking it up, wow that thing is close to the border. Like rock throwing distance. I imagine Ukraine could make that thing spectacularly disappear whenever they feel like it.

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They don't want to make it disappear, they want what's in it.

Will this go like the attempted paratrooper landing at the Kiev airport? Orcs have shown no capability to plan or execute these kind of operations. They are going to get more Su-24's shot to hell.

RebelE Infantry said:

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GAC06 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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I don't think there's any way Russia would try this. I think this is more likely laying the groundwork for Ukraine to cross the border into Transnistria. There's only something like 1,500 Russian peacekeeping troops there and it's home to the largest soviet era ammunition depot in Europe.

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First I'd heard of the depot. After looking it up, wow that thing is close to the border. Like rock throwing distance. I imagine Ukraine could make that thing spectacularly disappear whenever they feel like it.

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They don't want to make it disappear, they want what's in it.

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I guess but at this point how much Soviet artillery do they have remaining? Those barrels must be worn out by now

GAC06 said:

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Yeah but both Ukraine and Romania's airspace is closed to Russia. They'd have to overfly one of those to get to Moldova. I guess they could use a third party country to originate a flight but then what? You've captured an airport in a country surrounded by a NATO country and a country you are at war with.

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Not saying it's smart, just that it can be done. If anything it might be just a pinning operation to draw more Ukrainian defenses that direction. Not sure NATO would directly intervene there.

Russian Air Defenses reported Active earlier over Mariupol. pic.twitter.com/UKpKjG2Ief

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 21, 2023

Ukraine has conducted a massive strike on targets within Mariupol. Those who witnessed the strike has stated it was likely the biggest so far this year. It is unclear what was actually targeted or what was used.

— Global: Military-Info (@Global_Mil_Info) February 21, 2023

The Ukrainian Military does not have GLSDBs yet so no the Strikes that are being reported in Mariupol were not carried out utilizing them; they were most likely carried out using Long-Range Attack Drones which Ukraine has already utilized to Target Airbases in Russia.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 21, 2023

There were also some reposts earlier today that President Xi was considering a Visit to Moscow soon most likely to discuss further Cooperation with the Russian Government.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 22, 2023

If they coulda,they woulda. Putin needs more help from Kim Jong Un or Tehran to be able to conduct a successful missile demonstration. BTW, it was supposed to be a demonstration, not a test.

Another data point in support of the hypothesis that the Russian strategic arsenal is in no better shape than their conventional tactical arsenal and forces.

Why would they need help from Iran or China? Iran doesn't even have ICBM's

Not a Bot said:

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Ukraine 🇺🇦 will be receiving JDAM-ER GPS-guided Long-Range bombs from USA 🇺🇸 that were modified for Soviet jets to launch them (Bloomberg)

JDAM-ER kits can be put on unguided bombs with warheads ranging from 500 to 2,000lb. The JDAM-ER is then airdropped and can glide up to 72km pic.twitter.com/9c47ysKt4O

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) February 21, 2023

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That's a cool looking bomb … send some of those to wake up Ruskies

Kim Jon Un isn't from China and he frequently does missile tests to scare the west.

Ulysses90 said:

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Kim Jon Un isn't from China and he frequently does missile tests to scare the west.

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Oh oops. For some reason I thought you said China, which would have made much more sense.

There are reports of explosions and the activity of Russian air defense in many places in the occupied east of Ukraine. According to even Russian propagandists, arrivals were at Donetsk, Makiivka, Khartsizsk, Ilovaisk, Mariupol and other places. pic.twitter.com/NPaXFEcDnq

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 21, 2023

Are the Ukes kicking off their offensive by destroying a bunch of Russian supply dumps on the anniversary of the Russian invasion?

I would find it more likely that they're dulling a Russian offensive, however I am not an expert. I'm a layman analyzing information to the best of my abilities. I find it unlikely that a Ukrainian offensive would take place while training on heavy equipment is ongoing and Russian offensives are happening across the frontline.