***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,551,198 Views | 47731 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by Waffledynamics
BlueSmoke
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nortex97 said:

Russian tank losses have been astronomical. I'm not a big believer in their tanks, training, or doctrine.

Still, I think in general the losses are from artillery/mines/anti-tank weapons/aircraft and there haven't been many tank on tank battles.
They've been forced to stay on the main roads as the countryside quickly turns into soup and the tracked vehicles get stuck. Makes them easy targets
Nobody cares. Work Harder
sclaff
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LMCane
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ABATTBQ11 said:

For all of their bluster, Russia seems scared ****less of US weapons.
notice in all the Russkie propaganda channels which Rob and Denys Davidov show..

the Russkies NEVER talk about marching on Poland, and then into East Prussia, and then into Berlin, and on to Paris.

what they talk about is "we need to fire a nuclear weapon at London or Washington"

this tells me that even the delusional insane Russian Pravda KGBniks

realize their military is so woefully inept it would be demolished if they tried to attack an actual NATO country.
JFABNRGR
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BlueSmoke said:

nortex97 said:

Russian tank losses have been astronomical. I'm not a big believer in their tanks, training, or doctrine.

Still, I think in general the losses are from artillery/mines/anti-tank weapons/aircraft and there haven't been many tank on tank battles.
They've been forced to stay on the main roads as the countryside quickly turns into soup and the tracked vehicles get stuck. Makes them easy targets
Lots of pics and vids of UKE armor moving into and around Bakhmut last couple days. Drones identifying orc soldiers without ATGMs; tank or AFV30MM moves in fast and blasts positions mostly in houses.

The roads you say!
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11489c5/the_before_during_and_after_of_a_russian_unit_at/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

None shall pass! Minimum distance to arm ATGM on road again. Note proximity of arty craters to trench. I wonder if this was always a UKE trench or taken from the orcs.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/114rgki/ukranian_soldier_in_a_trench_takes_out_russian_ifv/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

That one warrior! Not sure where his trench mates are but damn. Looks like he may have had a magazine caddy hiding in the hole.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/114qlyy/ukrainian_killing_3_russian_soilders_attacking/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Twitter version of above.


A year in and they still don't know how to DISPERSE!
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/114d9hb/ukrainian_drone_drops_a_grenade_on_a_large_group/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
JFABNRGR
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GAC06 said:

Modern SAMs aren't going to confuse balloons for bombers
I don't recall anyone doing a deepdive information wise about ADA in Ukraine. Capabilities by system from manpad to most sophisticated Patriot/Iris T. Estimated quantities, how they may be using them. Do we think there is any high flying munitions on the front or is it all behind the HIMARS protecting them and Kviv/Power.

Seems like you have a good bit of knowledge on these maybe you could put together a good report on this?

I would certainly be appreciative. I have no real knowledge on this matter especially the radar, targeting, assignment especially when they have multiple different systems.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Mercenaries of PMC Wagner have reportedly captured Paraskoviyivka near Bakhmut


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/17-february-mercenaries-of-pmc-wagner-have-reportedly-captured

This is just a small bit Southwest of Krasna Hora.
74OA
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UPDATES
Waffledynamics
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Well, that's quite a turn.
P.U.T.U
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He will change his mind again, done it several times

In the end I wonder how many soldiers Russia is going to lose. If they are losing the 600-1000 a day in some areas it likely is already to the point where it will hurt there economy for a generation or two. They were already low on labor aged workers before the war
Waffledynamics
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Holy crap

GAC06
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Well of the stuff that's been pledged:

Patriot
HAWK
IRIS-T
SAMP/T

Can all reach high 60k+ targets depending on exact variants delivered.

NASAMS can hit medium altitude targets.

Crotale, Gepards, Avengers, and the many MANPADS they've received are for low altitude targets.

They may still have their own stuff remaining like S-300's which also can engage high altitude targets.

My hunch is that most of the systems above other than MANPADS are well back of the front line to intercept missiles. I don't see a pressing need for high altitude air defense at the front line because it hasn't been needed yet. It hasn't been needed yet because Russia has very limited/basically no PGM capability so dropping unguided bombs from high altitude on front line positions is risking high value assets for marginal benefit.
P.U.T.U
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Shows what proper training vs conscript training is. The Uke would shoot and then move to another position and fire again. The Russians looked to fire from the same spots or close by even though they were not in a trench. I guess the Russians did not have any grenades either since at that range I would have chunked a few in the trench. Uke solder had an RPG but he didn't use grenades either.

Uke soldier also had a red dot while the Russians looked to have iron sights, helpful in close in situations like this to acquire targets faster.

So many of the videos showed Russian troops so close together making it easy for Ukraine to take out at least half of them with artillery or a drone. Also had a crunchy which is not unheard of with armoured vehicles. Difficult to see in IFVs and that guy was hugging the back of one. IFV changed directions and crunch
LMCane
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P.U.T.U said:

Shows what proper training vs conscript training is. The Uke would shoot and then move to another position and fire again. The Russians looked to fire from the same spots or close by even though they were not in a trench. I guess the Russians did not have any grenades either since at that range I would have chunked a few in the trench. Uke solder had an RPG but he didn't use grenades either.

Uke soldier also had a red dot while the Russians looked to have iron sights, helpful in close in situations like this to acquire targets faster.

So many of the videos showed Russian troops so close together making it easy for Ukraine to take out at least half of them with artillery or a drone. Also had a crunchy which is not unheard of with armoured vehicles. Difficult to see in IFVs and that guy was hugging the back of one. IFV changed directions and crunch
the most troubling factor that I have seen in numerous videos is simply open terrain in Uke trenches.

we are talking 40 yards of trench with ONE or two soldiers to defend it.

no bueno
74OA
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At the start of the war, Europe expelled 400 Russian intelligence officers working out of Moscow's embassies. Since then, nations have been aggressively chasing spies operating without such diplomatic protection.

MANHUNT
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74OA
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Rinse, repeat. Ukraine digging entrenchments just behind Bakhmut. So many dead Russians with so little to show for it.

FALLBACK?
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
Eliminatus
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P.U.T.U said:

Shows what proper training vs conscript training is. The Uke would shoot and then move to another position and fire again. The Russians looked to fire from the same spots or close by even though they were not in a trench. I guess the Russians did not have any grenades either since at that range I would have chunked a few in the trench. Uke solder had an RPG but he didn't use grenades either.

Uke soldier also had a red dot while the Russians looked to have iron sights, helpful in close in situations like this to acquire targets faster.

So many of the videos showed Russian troops so close together making it easy for Ukraine to take out at least half of them with artillery or a drone. Also had a crunchy which is not unheard of with armoured vehicles. Difficult to see in IFVs and that guy was hugging the back of one. IFV changed directions and crunch


Damn. That was intense. And you are right. That is the first thing that jumped out at me. The Uke was shooting and scooting constantly. Popping his head up in a different place every time, traversing his assigned battlespace constantly and engaging threats quickly and moving on. This is textbook behavior and very well executed. Still, holy crap!

Russian was doing the exact opposite. This more than anything has shown how incredibly different our doctrine is from theirs. Assuming that Russian even got an adequate level of training. Never know these days. To be creeping up on an active enemy held trench like that from the front while fixated on a single point is mind numbing stupid.

"Violence of action" is a driving force of our USMC and one I adhere to with conviction. If you are going to get in the thick of things, then get in the f'ing thick of things with speed and purpose and with malice in your heart. Thunderdome logic but it works.

Also this Uke was fighting out of his mind! That RPG hit an IFV and he caused at least two more casualties while quick swapping weapons. Video game in real life almost. Hope he made it through.
AgLA06
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74OA said:

Rinse, repeat. Ukraine digging entrenchments just behind Bakhmut. So many dead Russians with so little to show for it.

FALLBACK?


And they're dumb enough to keep sending battalions to get ripped apart for dirt that means nothing. While the Ukrainians can keep slowly drawing back and fixing a lot bigger force While they prepare for their offensive.
Eliminatus
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74OA said:

At the start of the war, Europe expelled 400 Russian intelligence officers working out of Moscow's embassies. Since then, nations have been aggressively chasing spies operating without such diplomatic protection.

MANHUNT


That's awesome. Was just the other day wondering about the fallout of that initial purge. Thanks for the update.
JFABNRGR
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Longer version. He does get one RPG off and preps it under significant small arms fire. Shows how important a little bit of dirt mounded up can be. Damn guy hiding in the hole couldn't even hand him the RPG fully prepped. Assuming they survived this that guy owes the warrior his life.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/114v16p/full_battle/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
ATX_AG_08
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My first thought was I hope this dude made it. Supposedly he is alive. battles.and.beers ig page found him and is supposed to interview.
74OA
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Leo 2 delays. Ok, then get those Leo 1s moving in the meantime. Don't just do nothing waiting on Leo 2.

DITHERING
cbr
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Eliminatus said:

P.U.T.U said:

Shows what proper training vs conscript training is. The Uke would shoot and then move to another position and fire again. The Russians looked to fire from the same spots or close by even though they were not in a trench. I guess the Russians did not have any grenades either since at that range I would have chunked a few in the trench. Uke solder had an RPG but he didn't use grenades either.

Uke soldier also had a red dot while the Russians looked to have iron sights, helpful in close in situations like this to acquire targets faster.

So many of the videos showed Russian troops so close together making it easy for Ukraine to take out at least half of them with artillery or a drone. Also had a crunchy which is not unheard of with armoured vehicles. Difficult to see in IFVs and that guy was hugging the back of one. IFV changed directions and crunch


Damn. That was intense. And you are right. That is the first thing that jumped out at me. The Uke was shooting and scooting constantly. Popping his head up in a different place every time, traversing his assigned battlespace constantly and engaging threats quickly and moving on. This is textbook behavior and very well executed. Still, holy crap!

Russian was doing the exact opposite. This more than anything has shown how incredibly different our doctrine is from theirs. Assuming that Russian even got an adequate level of training. Never know these days. To be creeping up on an active enemy held trench like that from the front while fixated on a single point is mind numbing stupid.

"Violence of action" is a driving force of our USMC and one I adhere to with conviction. If you are going to get in the thick of things, then get in the f'ing thick of things with speed and purpose and with malice in your heart. Thunderdome logic but it works.

Also this Uke was fighting out of his mind! That RPG hit an IFV and he caused at least two more casualties while quick swapping weapons. Video game in real life almost. Hope he made it through.
in my limited experience, damn right, you better keep moving, you better be unpredictable, and you better keep situational awareness, and frankly, you'd better shoot first.
74OA
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First Ukrainian mech battalion completes US combined-arms training. Several other battalions already in training. Can't happen too fast.

HURRY!
P.U.T.U
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In the shorter video it never showed there was another guy and that seems to be at par. In most regular military groups only 2-3 out of a dozen or so are actually able to be effective this close to the enemy. Other guy wasn't even able to load the RPG correctly and was basically just loading magazines into rifles and handing it to the guy fighting. From the smoke it looks like the fighting guy takes out the IFV and at least 3 guys that are already out of it. You can hear screams after he hits one Russian that I am sure he will have that in his head the rest of his life. Trench warfare is nasty. They were close enough he threw a few grenades too

As someone stated early you have 2 guys responsible for a decent amount of area and I would think most are not going to be as capable as the guy in the video.
P.U.T.U
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No don't hurry, train the troops right so they understand how to fight with IFVs unlike the Russians. The latest videos show how poorly the Russian armies are trained
Waffledynamics
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AgLA06
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Something to point out about there only being a couple Ukes.

It appears the Ukes have changed defensive tactics around Bakhmut. Russia was trying to draw them into a war of attrition of both sides knowing the only advantage they have is bodies. There was some Youtube videos showing QRCs counter attacking these Russian pushes. It appears they've gone more sparse on the line and now are pushing reserves up only when needed so that they minimize losses from artillery and drones and to rotate guys back off the line.

Obviously, the downfall to that is the attack has to be seen / detected early so drones and artillery can pound them while the QRF reacts. If not, you have this kind of situation where guys are holding on for dear life waiting for the calvary to arrive.
Gilligan
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P.U.T.U said:

Shows what proper training vs conscript training is. The Uke would shoot and then move to another position and fire again. The Russians looked to fire from the same spots or close by even though they were not in a trench. I guess the Russians did not have any grenades either since at that range I would have chunked a few in the trench. Uke solder had an RPG but he didn't use grenades either.

Uke soldier also had a red dot while the Russians looked to have iron sights, helpful in close in situations like this to acquire targets faster.

So many of the videos showed Russian troops so close together making it easy for Ukraine to take out at least half of them with artillery or a drone. Also had a crunchy which is not unheard of with armored vehicles. Difficult to see in IFVs and that guy was hugging the back of one. IFV changed directions and crunch
Reddit has a 4 to 5 minute cut from this battle and the guy probably will develop "Tommy John's" from all the grenades he tossed. It was a few. This guy has a tiktok account as well and is dubbed the "Golden AK."

He blasted that RuZZian and went about his business to come back and make swiss cheese out of him because he was still moving.

Insane trench warfare in 2023.
Gilligan
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JFABNRGR said:

Longer version. He does get one RPG off and preps it under significant small arms fire. Shows how important a little bit of dirt mounded up can be. Damn guy hiding in the hole couldn't even hand him the RPG fully prepped. Assuming they survived this that guy owes the warrior his life.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/114v16p/full_battle/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Thanks for posting this link. I counted 5 grenades tossed during the 5 minutes.

at the 2:40 mark the guy in the hole throws the warrior grenade and then another.

Intense!
UTExan
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ABATTBQ11 said:

For all of their bluster, Russia seems scared ****less of US weapons.


Our systems seem to exploit their weaknesses: highly precise artillery able to shoot and scoot vs. the Russian system, Javelin and the Saab NLAWS and their almost complete disregard for the tactical skill of their adversary. The biggest surprise has been the Russian inability to establish aerial dominance.
It is better to light a flamethrower than to curse the darkness- Sir Terence Pratchett
“ III stooges si viveret et nos omnes ad quos etiam probabile est mittent custard pies”
JFABNRGR
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P.U.T.U said:

In the shorter video it never showed there was another guy and that seems to be at par. In most regular military groups only 2-3 out of a dozen or so are actually able to be effective this close to the enemy. Other guy wasn't even able to load the RPG correctly and was basically just loading magazines into rifles and handing it to the guy fighting. From the smoke it looks like the fighting guy takes out the IFV and at least 3 guys that are already out of it. You can hear screams after he hits one Russian that I am sure he will have that in his head the rest of his life. Trench warfare is nasty. They were close enough he threw a few grenades too

As someone stated early you have 2 guys responsible for a decent amount of area and I would think most are not going to be as capable as the guy in the video.


"Out of every one hundred men, ten shouldn't even be there, eighty are just targets, nine are the real fighters, and we are lucky to have them, for they make the battle. Ah, but the one, one is a warrior, and he will bring the others back."
Hera****us
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Full Update: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-17-2023
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