***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Trying to confirm this. Seeing it on social media a lot.

RogerEnright
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Great point. I completely agree. There can be no peace without Ukraine taking Crimea.
74OA
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ARC Integrity carrying the initial batch of Bradleys has arrived at Antwerp. I wonder if there will be a delay to further train Ukrainians on them and to paint the IFVs green before delivery?
74OA
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Even assuming the need to refurbish these early Leo's, the lack of urgency is bewildering. Is this really as fast as industrial powerhouse Germany can go? "According to the publication, the first tanks should arrive in Ukraine in the summer, but most of them will not be delivered until next year."

178 Leo I's
Eliminatus
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74OA said:

Even assuming the need to refurbish these early Leo's, the lack of urgency is bewildering. Is this really as fast as industrial powerhouse Germany can go? "According to the publication, the first tanks should arrive in Ukraine in the summer, but most of them will not be delivered until next year."

178 Leo I's


I had actually already assumed that there would be significant time delays for Germanys part.

Honestly, their whole approach, demeanor, and overall actions for this conflict will be an interesting case study in itself. I am trying to look past my bias of viewing them just as petulant children begrudgingly going along with the group but having a real hard time trying to find real world explanations of why they are dragging their feet. Aside from the usual semi conspiracy theories of German leadership being in bed with Putin. (Which may end up being more true than not in the end. We shall see)
74OA
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Eliminatus said:

74OA said:

Even assuming the need to refurbish these early Leo's, the lack of urgency is bewildering. Is this really as fast as industrial powerhouse Germany can go? "According to the publication, the first tanks should arrive in Ukraine in the summer, but most of them will not be delivered until next year."

178 Leo I's


I had actually already assumed that there would be significant time delays for Germanys part.

Honestly, their whole approach, demeanor, and overall actions for this conflict will be an interesting case study in itself. I am trying to look past my bias of viewing them just as petulant children begrudgingly going along with the group but having a real hard time trying to find real world explanations of why they are dragging their feet. Aside from the usual semi conspiracy theories of German leadership being in bed with Putin. (Which may end up being more true than not in the end. We shall see)

It's unreasonable to expect Germany to care more about Ukraine's defense than it cares about its own defense. Since we know Berlin allowed the Bundeswehr to deteriorate to such alarming levels, perhaps its corresponding lack of urgency on Ukraine's behalf shouldn't keep surprising me.
AgLA06
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74OA said:

Eliminatus said:

74OA said:

Even assuming the need to refurbish these early Leo's, the lack of urgency is bewildering. Is this really as fast as industrial powerhouse Germany can go? "According to the publication, the first tanks should arrive in Ukraine in the summer, but most of them will not be delivered until next year."

178 Leo I's


I had actually already assumed that there would be significant time delays for Germanys part.

Honestly, their whole approach, demeanor, and overall actions for this conflict will be an interesting case study in itself. I am trying to look past my bias of viewing them just as petulant children begrudgingly going along with the group but having a real hard time trying to find real world explanations of why they are dragging their feet. Aside from the usual semi conspiracy theories of German leadership being in bed with Putin. (Which may end up being more true than not in the end. We shall see)

It's unreasonable to expect Germany to care more about Ukraine's defense than it cares about its own defense. Since we know Berlin allowed the Bundeswehr to deteriorate to such alarming levels, perhaps its corresponding lack of urgency on Ukraine's behalf shouldn't keep surprising me.
I was hoping for the opposite. This was their chance to change that, unload the old crap and build an army that could stand a chance. Guess not.
nortex97
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Eliminatus said:

nortex97 said:

Ok, fine, I'll check out as I know my take (which is anything but pro-Russia, fwiw) is not wanted on this thread, but close with again Douglas McGregor's most recent discussion. And note, his comments in that recent interview that the Republicans and Democrats are essentially the same in regards to foreign policy/Ukraine/Russia etc.

Tactically and strategically, pushing Russia and China together, with the latter just oh-by-the-way having demonstrated a simple ability to violate conus airspace with a vehicle that could easily have carried a weapon to shut down our electrical grid for weeks/months, is absolutely insane to me.

I do value alternative viewpoints, when not simply trolls/baiting for the sake of it. I actually wish I could agree with you guys/girls that throwing more weapons to escalate this toward some notional goal of absolute victory for the 'good' Ukrainians is both noble and achievable.


Agree to disagree. Not a damn thing wrong with that. Fun even at times! EVERYONE has made up their mind about this war by now and very, very few will break from that. That's just the state of politics these days. Just don't play a victim when you don't get the audience you want though.

If you have something more substantial than conjecture and suspect twitter videos of chem warfare use, than please share! Or even a well thought out rationale on why the Ukes would resort to singular chem grenades at this stage would be worthy of discussion. Not only would it be dumb, it is actually regressive in capabilities. It makes absolute zero sense IMO.
Absolutely; just responding to clarify I am not a victim at all here. Engaged in dialog, just walking away from going further on it as I don't want to be one of 'those people' who can't handle adults disagreeing about something on the internet and insisting I get the last word etc. Some good points above.

Again, I'm not a victim here, and I didn't/won't flag anyone's posts of course regardless of disagreements etc. I gave my two cents, and y'all are welcome as free Americans to ignore it/laugh or anything else. Gig 'em.
74OA
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AgLA06 said:

74OA said:

Eliminatus said:

74OA said:

Even assuming the need to refurbish these early Leo's, the lack of urgency is bewildering. Is this really as fast as industrial powerhouse Germany can go? "According to the publication, the first tanks should arrive in Ukraine in the summer, but most of them will not be delivered until next year."

178 Leo I's


I had actually already assumed that there would be significant time delays for Germanys part.

Honestly, their whole approach, demeanor, and overall actions for this conflict will be an interesting case study in itself. I am trying to look past my bias of viewing them just as petulant children begrudgingly going along with the group but having a real hard time trying to find real world explanations of why they are dragging their feet. Aside from the usual semi conspiracy theories of German leadership being in bed with Putin. (Which may end up being more true than not in the end. We shall see)

It's unreasonable to expect Germany to care more about Ukraine's defense than it cares about its own defense. Since we know Berlin allowed the Bundeswehr to deteriorate to such alarming levels, perhaps its corresponding lack of urgency on Ukraine's behalf shouldn't keep surprising me.
I was hoping for the opposite. This was their chance to change that, unload the old crap and build an army that could stand a chance. Guess not.
I'm beginning to think Germany just doesn't know how to anymore. Anyway, Greece has 873 Leo's of which 520 are Leo IA5GR. Now that Berlin has given the okay to send Leo's, maybe NATO should be working a deal with Athens?
lb3
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nortex97 said:

Eliminatus said:

nortex97 said:

Ok, fine, I'll check out as I know my take (which is anything but pro-Russia, fwiw) is not wanted on this thread, but close with again Douglas McGregor's most recent discussion. And note, his comments in that recent interview that the Republicans and Democrats are essentially the same in regards to foreign policy/Ukraine/Russia etc.

Tactically and strategically, pushing Russia and China together, with the latter just oh-by-the-way having demonstrated a simple ability to violate conus airspace with a vehicle that could easily have carried a weapon to shut down our electrical grid for weeks/months, is absolutely insane to me.

I do value alternative viewpoints, when not simply trolls/baiting for the sake of it. I actually wish I could agree with you guys/girls that throwing more weapons to escalate this toward some notional goal of absolute victory for the 'good' Ukrainians is both noble and achievable.


Agree to disagree. Not a damn thing wrong with that. Fun even at times! EVERYONE has made up their mind about this war by now and very, very few will break from that. That's just the state of politics these days. Just don't play a victim when you don't get the audience you want though.

If you have something more substantial than conjecture and suspect twitter videos of chem warfare use, than please share! Or even a well thought out rationale on why the Ukes would resort to singular chem grenades at this stage would be worthy of discussion. Not only would it be dumb, it is actually regressive in capabilities. It makes absolute zero sense IMO.
Absolutely; just responding to clarify I am not a victim at all here. Engaged in dialog, just walking away from going further on it as I don't want to be one of 'those people' who can't handle adults disagreeing about something on the internet and insisting I get the last word etc. Some good points above.

Again, I'm not a victim here, and I didn't/won't flag anyone's posts of course regardless of disagreements etc. I gave my two cents, and y'all are welcome as free Americans to ignore it/laugh or anything else. Gig 'em.
I welcome the counterpoints. This thread is very pro-Ukraine and we're often guilty of only bringing back data that supports our own biases. It's also good to know what Putin's regime is serving up for domestic consumption regardless of how much confidence we place on it.

As for McGregor, he has been consistently wrong on this war and seems to be doubling down on his March 22 assertions that Ukraine was facing imminent defeat.

The WWIII drums have been beaten pretty hard of late. But I have significant doubts that any party outside of Ukraine would be interested in expanding the war into Eastern Europe.
74OA
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lb3 said:

nortex97 said:

Eliminatus said:

nortex97 said:

Ok, fine, I'll check out as I know my take (which is anything but pro-Russia, fwiw) is not wanted on this thread, but close with again Douglas McGregor's most recent discussion. And note, his comments in that recent interview that the Republicans and Democrats are essentially the same in regards to foreign policy/Ukraine/Russia etc.

Tactically and strategically, pushing Russia and China together, with the latter just oh-by-the-way having demonstrated a simple ability to violate conus airspace with a vehicle that could easily have carried a weapon to shut down our electrical grid for weeks/months, is absolutely insane to me.

I do value alternative viewpoints, when not simply trolls/baiting for the sake of it. I actually wish I could agree with you guys/girls that throwing more weapons to escalate this toward some notional goal of absolute victory for the 'good' Ukrainians is both noble and achievable.


Agree to disagree. Not a damn thing wrong with that. Fun even at times! EVERYONE has made up their mind about this war by now and very, very few will break from that. That's just the state of politics these days. Just don't play a victim when you don't get the audience you want though.

If you have something more substantial than conjecture and suspect twitter videos of chem warfare use, than please share! Or even a well thought out rationale on why the Ukes would resort to singular chem grenades at this stage would be worthy of discussion. Not only would it be dumb, it is actually regressive in capabilities. It makes absolute zero sense IMO.
Absolutely; just responding to clarify I am not a victim at all here. Engaged in dialog, just walking away from going further on it as I don't want to be one of 'those people' who can't handle adults disagreeing about something on the internet and insisting I get the last word etc. Some good points above.

Again, I'm not a victim here, and I didn't/won't flag anyone's posts of course regardless of disagreements etc. I gave my two cents, and y'all are welcome as free Americans to ignore it/laugh or anything else. Gig 'em.
I welcome the counterpoints. This thread is very pro-Ukraine and we're often guilty of only bringing back data that supports our own biases. It's also good to know what Putin's regime is serving up for domestic consumption regardless of how much confidence we place on it.

As for McGregor, he has been consistently wrong on this war and seems to be doubling down on his March 22 assertions that Ukraine was facing imminent defeat.

The WWIII drums have been beaten pretty hard of late. But I have significant doubts that any party outside of Ukraine would be interested in expanding the war into Eastern Europe.
It's not about objecting to alternative viewpoints, it's objecting to people offering crap material to support their viewpoints, too often twitter drivel. The OP and moderator's notes up-top were designed to keep that standard F16 modus out of here.

What's particularly annoying is drive-by posters who assemble a collage of one-sided twitter snapshots from dubious posters and use those brief glimpses to proclaim political or military "truths" that fly in the face of extensive reporting from far more diverse and authoritative sources. That's not a legit effort to be "engaged in the dialog", it's a poorly disguised attempt at derailing it.

By and large the overall flow of discussion here has avoided that trap because we know both sides are waging information warfare--and that's why people will continue to object to posts that fail the sniff-test.
lb3
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I don't disagree but I still find value in seeing what the Twitterbots are spewing regardless of how they're presented.

My Twitter is so narrowly curated now that I rarely see the Russian side if I don't go looking for it. I take the chemical weapon grenades stuff as pure propaganda but did enjoy doing a dive into some of those accounts.

I've accidentally brought garbage Ukrainian propaganda here. More of a look at this style sharing than a wow, how can you continue trusting the Ukes when WWIII is just one misstep away kind of post however.
AgLA06
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74OA
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lb3 said:

I don't disagree but I still find value in seeing what the Twitterbots are spewing regardless of how they're presented.

My Twitter is so narrowly curated now that I rarely see the Russian side if I don't go looking for it. I take the chemical weapon grenades stuff as pure propaganda but did enjoy doing a dive into some of those accounts.

I've accidentally brought garbage Ukrainian propaganda here. More of a look at this style sharing than a wow, how can you continue trusting the Ukes when WWIII is just one misstep away kind of post however.
Twitter has its place, and I welcome it here as snapshots into the horrors of war. There's bound to be times when what is posted is off-base, sometimes deliberately, but I wouldn't sweat good-faith posts.
Waffledynamics
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lb sand said:

WD, as much as I appreciate your updates on this thread, I'm not sure I can get past the gunt in that last photo.

Other than that, good info. Keep up the good work.
Sorry about that. Here's one with a "sponsor" that's also off-putting, but in a different way.



Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1623015615798845441.html

Also,

Waffledynamics
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Ukraine better be starting to withdraw from Bakhmut or have some sort of ace up their sleeve.

Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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What a dumbass.

Waffledynamics
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Full update: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-7-2023
fullback44
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Russian attacking Kharkov again w S-300 missiles

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/7/7388375/
Smeghead4761
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More on Ukraine's quadrotor kamikaze drones.

cbr
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This seems alarmist, but there has to be some truth to it;



https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/truth-about-tanks-how-nato-lied-its-way-disaster-ukraine

The summary, Western tanks require so much training, maintenance and logistics that giving them to ukraine actually weakens ukraine.

While i am sure those factors have a lot of truth to them, i would still think ukrainians familiar with russian tanks and combined arms tactics could adapt pretty quickly To using western tanks, especially diesels…

Opinions from those in the know?
txags92
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There are a lot of "ifs" and assumptions that the author makes that I doubt are true. He assumes that he is the only one who recognizes the amount of maintenance required and assumes that while we are training crews, we are not also training mechanics. He also ignores that there may be western volunteers with the training and experience necessary to help with the maintenance as well. He also assumes that these tanks are just going to roll off the transport planes or ships and straight into battle at random locations, instead of being accumulated into meaningful units and used to lead offensives at the time and place the Ukrainians choose. The Ukrainians have shown the ability to handle the art of planning a major offensive and accumulating the units necessary to make it successful and I think it is unfair to them to assume they could not do so with the tanks we are giving them.
MouthBQ98
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The maintenance issue is legitimate but can be taken care of with training over time. I think the tanks are designed to be as user friendly as they can be, such that 18 year old highschool grads can learn to operate them effectively and the officers and NCO can fight them effectively in battle. There will be some training required but I am sure Ukraine will be putting their best crews into what will be done of their best equipment to maximize its utility.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Sending tanks the recipients can't use would be Russia level incompetence.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
LMCane
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cbr said:

This seems alarmist, but there has to be some truth to it;



https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/truth-about-tanks-how-nato-lied-its-way-disaster-ukraine

The summary, Western tanks require so much training, maintenance and logistics that giving them to ukraine actually weakens ukraine.

While i am sure those factors have a lot of truth to them, i would still think ukrainians familiar with russian tanks and combined arms tactics could adapt pretty quickly To using western tanks, especially diesels…

Opinions from those in the know?
Why does there "HAVE" to be some truth to it?!

Just an FYI: Scott Ritter, the author of that piece you linked to above was arrested twice for preying on underage children on the internet. Zerohedge is a notorious bastion of Putin propaganda.

The fact that hundreds of tanks will be rolling into Ukraine to be used against the Russians is in no way a positive development for the Russians. No matter their propaganda.
cbr
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There 'has' to be some truth to it as follows, from my own limited knowledge;

M1 has a whole different crew layout
Turbine engine
Obviously all systems are different
I understand the logistics train for m1's is huge

Throwing a few of these out there could become a logistical nightmare, as a tank formation you think works but doesnt is often more dangerous than having no tanks on the battlefield. If they drain more resources than they are worth it is a net negative.

Then do the same accounting for dribbling in random other western tanks and equipment.

That said, my op was skeptical that it was a negative, just looking for info from people who know something on the topic

Whether the author is an ******* or not doesnt impact the topic

All media today is garbage. I find zerohedge to be less so than any msm, so it is worth scanning for topics.

twk
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cbr said:

There 'has' to be some truth to it as follows, from my own limited knowledge;

M1 has a whole different crew layout
Turbine engine
Obviously all systems are different
I understand the logistics train for m1's is huge

Throwing a few of these out there could become a logistical nightmare, as a tank formation you think works but doesnt is often more dangerous than having no tanks on the battlefield. If they drain more resources than they are worth it is a net negative.

Then do the same accounting for dribbling in random other western tanks and equipment.

That said, my op was skeptical that it was a negative, just looking for info from people who know something on the topic

Whether the author is an ******* or not doesnt impact the topic

All media today is garbage. I find zerohedge to be less so than any msm, so it is worth scanning for topics.


Talking about the M1 being a problem for Ukraine (it will be, if it ever gets there) is a bit misplaced, as other tanks (principally the German Leopard) will be put in service long before the Abrams. While there may be a learning curve for these other tanks, at least they use diesel engines. Concerns about how Ukraine would actually be able to supply and maintain the Abrams in the field are legitimate, but that article seems to have been written with the conclusion determined first, and some facts shoehorned in to fit the narrative.
JFABNRGR
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I am not worried about Bakhmut or the Ukes ability to make good use of any weapon system provided them.

Vid 1 orcs still doing orc things (failure to disburse) and continuing to confirm they are only good at shelling civilians.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/10wr5bf/russians_still_trying_to_advance_in_uhledar/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Vid 2 This is after UKR observed russian squad/platoon enter some trenches in wood line from drone recon, who observed NO ATGMs within the russian INF, so Ukes send 2 tanks. They are separated and get artillery called on them but at vid end still in operation. There is a separate vid of the recon previously posted on reddit but I am not going back for it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/10wu1la/two_ukrainian_tanks_under_artillery_fire_engage_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Warning vid 3&4 has Maydar as narrator (annoying to me) and marked as 7FEB23.

VID 3&4 says it all, just missing some rotary attack aircraft. Ukes allow and or observe orks enter village. Artillery targets them initially. First vid shows what I believe to be 152/155 but then changes to 220 or 240MM. Second Video shows Air burst 220/240MM and its massive. I do not believe I have witnessed this munition detonate to date but also accept that environmental conditions have significant influence on looks/sounds/feels. BTR4 comes on scene spitting death while Uke INF start clearing the same village. What is not directly noticed is you have Maydar birds (drones) controlling arty but there are separate drones controlling INF and Armor. Combined Arms versus Cannon fodder (orcs just have a lot but thats changing).

Part 1
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/10wnbuf/madyars_drone_groups_latest_work_artillery/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Part 2
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/10wnenl/madyars_drone_groups_latest_work_artillery/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
txags92
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cbr said:

There 'has' to be some truth to it as follows, from my own limited knowledge;

M1 has a whole different crew layout
Turbine engine
Obviously all systems are different
I understand the logistics train for m1's is huge

Throwing a few of these out there could become a logistical nightmare, as a tank formation you think works but doesnt is often more dangerous than having no tanks on the battlefield. If they drain more resources than they are worth it is a net negative.

Then do the same accounting for dribbling in random other western tanks and equipment.

That said, my op was skeptical that it was a negative, just looking for info from people who know something on the topic

Whether the author is an ******* or not doesnt impact the topic

All media today is garbage. I find zerohedge to be less so than any msm, so it is worth scanning for topics.


Yes, all of those things are known by everybody involved, and we have the best training and logistics capabilities in the world. If we are going to the trouble to give them the tanks, we are not just going to drop them off and drive away. We are going to train the crews and the mechanics and send along a ready supply of parts with them to make sure they can stay in operation. Despite the incompetence shown by the top end of our military leadership lately, our logistics and supply people are still the best in the world.
Eliminatus
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cbr said:

There 'has' to be some truth to it as follows, from my own limited knowledge;

M1 has a whole different crew layout
Turbine engine
Obviously all systems are different
I understand the logistics train for m1's is huge

Throwing a few of these out there could become a logistical nightmare, as a tank formation you think works but doesnt is often more dangerous than having no tanks on the battlefield. If they drain more resources than they are worth it is a net negative.

Then do the same accounting for dribbling in random other western tanks and equipment.

That said, my op was skeptical that it was a negative, just looking for info from people who know something on the topic

Whether the author is an ******* or not doesnt impact the topic

All media today is garbage. I find zerohedge to be less so than any msm, so it is worth scanning for topics.



There is zero doubt that there will be some learning curves and even learning pains. Just the nature of the beast when fielding new equipment and tactics. The problem is the fallacy of thinking that the Ukes will NEVER be capable of wielding these new tanks. They are going to have to learn on the fly and some or maybe even most of these tanks will be destroyed. They are not invincible. Just how war is sadly.

If I am not mistaken, the Ukes are also concentrating their logistical needs to certain units and areas. So when a new tech is sent especially if in limited numbers, it is concentrated in a specific region which shortens and simplifies the supply lines instead of spreading over the entire Uke military which I think a lot of people have in their heads. It is difficult yes, but not impossible. And the Ukes are in a desperate situation still and it is worth it to field these even if in a limited capacity and efficiency. Comparatively speaking to us at least. They don't need to train to our tippity top levels.

Also, if there is ever a poster boy of "consider your source" , it is Scott Ritter. He is an unabashed Russia lover and follower. His degree is in Russia history and politics and he has been and I think still is, employed by the Russian MSM. He literally has received compensation for writing hit pieces on Ukraine from Russia. He is still listed as an active member of Russia Times. He has been categorically wrong on just about every piece he has put out since the invasion begin. Frankly it is ridiculous and completely counter to what actually happened/ is happening. His crowning moment was when he was shouting to the world that the Ukes were the ones who massacred those civilians on Bucha and were blaming the Russians. Sorry, but not only no, but hell no. Dude is compromised and always has been. He also diddles kids. So **** that dude. A stain on America and on the USMC.
ABATTBQ11
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Yeah, anything by Scott Ritter can immediately be assumed to be complete bull****. He tweeted celebrations of Russia invading Ukraine and cheering on Russian soldiers. He is nothing more than a bootlicking propaganda piece.
Corporal Punishment
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Quote:

His crowning moment was when he was shouting to the world that the Ukes were the ones who massacred those civilians on Bucha and were blaming the Russians.
And no one called him out on it. I think his assertion was "I saw photos of rotting bodies and they're too fresh to have been killed while Russia held Bucha" or somesuch...implying they were reprisal killings at the hands of Ukranians. As was pointed out on this thread, photos revealed the SAME corpses in the SAME position lying on the road during Russian occupation AND after the town was liberated by Ukraine.

Having said that, "Ritter is a pedo", while sickening, is a total dodge. I'd rather hear our regular posters rebut his assertions on their merits.
Ulysses90
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Quote:

M1 has a whole different crew layout
Turbine engine


The Ukes seem to be able to use the Russian T80s they have captured. Why is a US made turbine necessarily more difficult to maintain and operate?

The Ukrainians have adapted to rather complex foreign made equipment better than I would have ever imagined. It's not just instructions in a Foreign language, it's a different alphabet. The arrival of NATO artillery compelled them to learn to use a 6400 mil circle interchangeably with the Soviet 6000 mil circle and they are doing it amazingly well.

I really don't understand the rationale behind the argument that western tanks and fighter aircraft will exceed the limits of Ukrainian adaptivity and ingenuity. Their logistics system reaches across many borders and there is no reason to believe that they cannot adapt to make this technology useful. If it's not useful, then they will discard it.
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