***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Eliminatus
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10:12p, 2/5/23
AG
This one is a tough loss for our nation.

Peter Reed, a former Marine turned volunteer combat medic was killed in Bakhmut a couple of days ago when his ambulance as hit by artillery.

He was first showcased in the History Channel series called Hunting ISIS where he was also a medic trying to help out the Iraqi people, often being the sole person with any sort of medical expertise in a huge area. HIGHLY recommend that series to those who want to see a riveting tale of a man lost in the world but doing what he can to save people. It truly is a moving piece that struck home with me watching his story unfold under fire and under stress of having so many people's lives, mostly civilians caught in crossfires, in his hands. In an area where so many went to kill and destroy, he went to save.

Saw a news blurb with his face and immediately recognized him and got a sick feeling when I clicked on the link only to confirm that he was indeed killed doing what he felt was his calling. Saving lives in areas where others will not go.

In Iraq:






In Ukraine:


Rest in peace to this warrior turned savior.
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Smeghead4761
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In reply to GAC06 • 12:06a, 2/6/23
GAC06 said:
I can't make out the road wheels which is the only way my untrained eye could distinguish in a video like that. Lots of comments saying T-62's so you're probably right
On the T-54/55 with the 100mm gun, there is either no bore evacuator at all, or it is located at the end of the barrel. Bore evac on the T-62 with the 115mm is about 2/3 of the way down the barrel.

The tanks shown don't have the bore evac at the end of the barrel, thus, T-62.

FWIW, and it's more of a gut feeling, but the turret shape looks more T-62 than T-55.
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lb3
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12:38a, 2/6/23
AG
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JFABNRGR
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8:05a, 2/6/23
AG
The Arc Integrity M/V has docked at commercial port in Southhampton. Nothing confirmed on where these Brads go from here or are they picking up the 14 Brit challengers to offload other side of english channel.

https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9332949
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cbr
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In reply to Eliminatus • 10:17a, 2/6/23
AG
Rip. That series was over the top tough to watch in the gruesome war footage department - and again usually civilians getting ripped to shreds.

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benchmark
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10:38a, 2/6/23
AG
Interesting closing summary from yesterday's ISW report. Noteworthy because Putin's risk tolerance may get tested during Russia's rumored pending offensive.
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN UPDATE, FEBRUARY 5, 2023
Quote:
Putin's reluctance to take risks directly related to his conventional war in Ukraine indicates that he remains highly unlikely to pursue nuclear escalation or war with NATO. ISW previously assessed that Russian conventional war threats against NATO do not correspond with Russia's capabilities and that Russia uses nuclear threats primarily to intimidate the West.[23] Putin evidently values his domestic status quo and seeks to avoid risky and controversial policies to support his own aims. Putin also continues to demonstrate that he remains a calculated individual who places considerable emphasis on eliminating riskseven while his perception of the situation he faces diverges from reality. Putin has thus repeatedly placed himself in the position of articulating maximalist and unrealistic objectives, calling on his government and military to achieve themyet refraining from making the costly decisions the large-scale and protracted conventional war he has embarked on likely requires.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to cbr • 10:59a, 2/6/23
AG
cbr said:
Rip. That series was over the top tough to watch in the gruesome war footage department - and again usually civilians getting ripped to shreds.



Was intense for sure. Physically and mentally. Especially Peter Reeds story in it. The blood and gore was one thing but to see him finally break down after losing one too many kids was the roughest.

I knew he was in Ukraine and in danger but somehow never occurred to me this was a possible outcome. To go through the fight for Mosul and Yemen and then die to a probably completely random artillery shell in an ambulance trying to save Uke civilians. Awful stuff.

If anything really just goes to show the complete and total disregard Russia has for civilian populaces, at best, to calculated murder of Uke civilians at the worst. I try to be open minded to most intelligent counter viewpoints of my own but I will not bend on this one. Russia is absolutely the Bad Actor here and their documented war crimes to date are heinous and they need to be hammered at every level possible for this war. From the battlefield to the courts. Russia has gotten away with too many shenanigans and I truly believe they are a world destabilizing entity and always have been.
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74OA
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11:16a, 2/6/23
AG
Nice rundown of the cities and town most likely to be in Russia's offensive sights.

TARGETS
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JFABNRGR
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1:39p, 2/6/23
AG
There are some brand new reports coming in on the Reddit Ukraine War threads about a major russian offensive in Vuhledar. In one video there are 3 MBTs smashed and a russian crew member running on fire for about a 100 yards. You can make out 2 other pieces of armor in the frame but no further details.

Then there is this pic with comments stating about 30 pieces of russian armor smashed and location is related to above. The pic is hard to tell if these are actually damaged or not especially in the back. Nothing on LiveUA maps yet and I stopped going to telegram months back. Even if not all damaged it looks like the russian tactics of last february have not changed.

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P.U.T.U
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 1:50p, 2/6/23
AG
Hearing some rumors that Russia is pulling navy soldiers on these land attacks. Prewar a Russian army conscript served for 2 years, navy for 3 years. If they are using navy soldiers this will hurt them long time. And seeing as you have that many vehicles that close together is a prime target for artillery.
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74OA
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In reply to twk • 3:30p, 2/6/23
AG
twk said:
74OA said:
JFABNRGR said:
B-1 83 said:
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
This.

I did not understand why mere days after the last big aid package they announce a new one which is expected to include GLSDBs. Why wouldn't that have already been included and not specified.

There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.

That cargo vessel with the 60 Bradleys is marked as 2 days out from Southhampton England. Not sure why they would go there and not Belgium. Maybe a fuel stop or maybe these are to backfill US Bradleys on NATO bases and the ones on NATO bases already shipped to Ukraine.
Possibly to be loaded on a train in UK and go directly to the Ukrainian border?
Some freight moves through the Channel Tunnel, but I'd be shocked if that was the case here. I think the reference to Southampton may just be a navigational point of reference.
Still no idea what the plan is, but Integrity has arrived UK.

Dockside at Southampton
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lb3
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 7:32p, 2/6/23
AG
Wouldn't surprise me to see this as the start of the Russian offensive but I suspect it's more of a feint.

We've been hearing about this offensive since the beginning of Russia's conscription but the consensus was that we were still 1-2 weeks away from the start. The Russians may be trying to get the Ukes to commit reserves somewhere other than where they plan their main attack.
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B-1 83
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In reply to lb3 • 7:40p, 2/6/23
AG
lb3 said:
Wouldn't surprise me to see this as the start of the Russian offensive but I suspect it's more of a feint.

We've been hearing about this offensive since the beginning of Russia's conscription but the consensus was that we were still 1-2 weeks away from the start. The Russians may be trying to get the Ukes to commit reserves somewhere other than where they plan their main attack.
Just as a thought -
- New Ukrainian toys are arriving in the next 30 days
- some of these are game changers
- use numbers now while the odds are even half ass even in the ground war. It's about to get bad for the orcs, so hit it while you can.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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fullback44
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In reply to 74OA • 8:31p, 2/6/23
AG
74OA said:
twk said:
74OA said:
JFABNRGR said:
B-1 83 said:
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
This.

I did not understand why mere days after the last big aid package they announce a new one which is expected to include GLSDBs. Why wouldn't that have already been included and not specified.

There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.

That cargo vessel with the 60 Bradleys is marked as 2 days out from Southhampton England. Not sure why they would go there and not Belgium. Maybe a fuel stop or maybe these are to backfill US Bradleys on NATO bases and the ones on NATO bases already shipped to Ukraine.
Possibly to be loaded on a train in UK and go directly to the Ukrainian border?
Some freight moves through the Channel Tunnel, but I'd be shocked if that was the case here. I think the reference to Southampton may just be a navigational point of reference.
Still no idea what the plan is, but Integrity has arrived UK.

Dockside at Southampton


Just clicked on your link.. the ship is now moving again and headed to the Port of Antwerp…. Looks like it will be unloading in Antwerp Belgium now
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74OA
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In reply to fullback44 • 9:12p, 2/6/23
AG
fullback44 said:
74OA said:
twk said:
74OA said:
JFABNRGR said:
B-1 83 said:
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
This.

I did not understand why mere days after the last big aid package they announce a new one which is expected to include GLSDBs. Why wouldn't that have already been included and not specified.

There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.

That cargo vessel with the 60 Bradleys is marked as 2 days out from Southhampton England. Not sure why they would go there and not Belgium. Maybe a fuel stop or maybe these are to backfill US Bradleys on NATO bases and the ones on NATO bases already shipped to Ukraine.
Possibly to be loaded on a train in UK and go directly to the Ukrainian border?
Some freight moves through the Channel Tunnel, but I'd be shocked if that was the case here. I think the reference to Southampton may just be a navigational point of reference.
Still no idea what the plan is, but Integrity has arrived UK.

Dockside at Southampton


Just clicked on your link.. the ship is now moving again and headed to the Port of Antwerp…. Looks like it will be unloading in Antwerp Belgium now
Wonder why the UK stop?
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74OA
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9:13p, 2/6/23
AG
Today's SITREP.
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txags92
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In reply to 74OA • 9:27p, 2/6/23
AG
74OA said:
fullback44 said:
74OA said:
twk said:
74OA said:
JFABNRGR said:
B-1 83 said:
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
This.

I did not understand why mere days after the last big aid package they announce a new one which is expected to include GLSDBs. Why wouldn't that have already been included and not specified.

There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.

That cargo vessel with the 60 Bradleys is marked as 2 days out from Southhampton England. Not sure why they would go there and not Belgium. Maybe a fuel stop or maybe these are to backfill US Bradleys on NATO bases and the ones on NATO bases already shipped to Ukraine.
Possibly to be loaded on a train in UK and go directly to the Ukrainian border?
Some freight moves through the Channel Tunnel, but I'd be shocked if that was the case here. I think the reference to Southampton may just be a navigational point of reference.
Still no idea what the plan is, but Integrity has arrived UK.

Dockside at Southampton


Just clicked on your link.. the ship is now moving again and headed to the Port of Antwerp…. Looks like it will be unloading in Antwerp Belgium now
Wonder why the UK stop?
Picking up some Brit challengers to take to the front together?
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Waffledynamics
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10:10p, 2/6/23
AG
DefMon update thread:

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lb sand
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:43p, 2/6/23
AG
WD, as much as I appreciate your updates on this thread, I'm not sure I can get past the gunt in that last photo.

Other than that, good info. Keep up the good work.
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nortex97
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4:36a, 2/7/23
AG
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Rossticus
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:37a, 2/7/23
That video displays literally nothing demonstrative of chemical weapons usage, nor does the Twitter thread, apart from people referencing vague sources alleging chemical weapons use.
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Eliminatus
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5:54a, 2/7/23
AG
It's nortex. They follow and believe pure Russian propaganda. Normally very easy to ignore but that twitter account was a new one to me so went diving.

Usual Russian laughable BS but did come across the Japanese Prime Minister making it a priority to have an official peace over the Kuril Islands. Doing some more digging to confirm but it is an interesting development in this whole mess. The two countries have a lot of tension over those islands and I think technically are still not in peace over them following WW2. I'll try to keep an eye on this. Nothing crazy will happen but just another factor in this geopolitical puzzle we call Asia. Japan does have sanctions in place against Russia and Russia spat back with denying fishing rights near them.
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nortex97
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In reply to Eliminatus • 7:20a, 2/7/23
AG
Thanks for joining my fan club!

I had no idea we had such chemical weapons experts here.





Anyway, war is great! Yay, Ukrainians heroically fighting mean Russian bear. Victory is near! Let's all believe whatever side's propaganda gives us warm and fuzzies about a pending trench war in Asia!







I'd like to think more Americans are skeptical toward official propaganda/narratives being fed, nowadays.
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Waffledynamics
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7:39a, 2/7/23
AG
Quote:
Reports of 5 big explosions in port area of Mariupol


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/7-february-reports-of-5-big-explosions-in-port-area-of-mariupol

Lots of staging happening in Mariupol.
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MouthBQ98
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7:59a, 2/7/23
AG
Even in the thread the video is sourced from there is argument that those are conventional bomblets and nothing chemical. In a couple of the videos they seem to use a HE and radiate small shrapnel which accounts for the near instantaneous physical reaction from the target soldiers as if they had been hit by something. A nearly invisible sharp explosion is typical of an antipersonnel grenade designed to radiate ball bearing sized shrapnel. The targets seem to react far too quickly for it to be a chemical weapon, even a fast acting gas takes a little while, and the depicted bomblets wouldn't contain enough to saturate an area with high enough concentrations rapidly.
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P.U.T.U
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8:56a, 2/7/23
AG
Yeah thats not chemical, just shrapnel and why dropping grenades or similar works. While it may not kill you, you now have tons of shrapnel in you.

From everything I see Russia is planning a major offensive on Feb 24, hope Ukraine gets their tanks and other equipment before then. I know we will never know the real numbers but I wonder how many Russians will have died in this war. I know it is more than in Afghanistan already

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Eliminatus
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:28a, 2/7/23
AG
Oh quit being petulant. Sorry if common sense, a decent knowledge of both anatomy and modern weapons, and a hesitancy to blindly accept a twitter account that espouses on proven lies, glorifies Soros proteges and has ****ing Stalin in the profile pic is counter to your own viewpoints.

And it's not exactly a pending trench war. It basically already is and has been since the summer. Awful stuff really.

ETA: Funny how autocorrect made Soros into Siri. That's worth a laugh alone right there.
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nortex97
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In reply to Eliminatus • 9:59a, 2/7/23
AG
Arthur Morgan doesn't even sound Russian to me? There are strict rules about name-calling in my fan club, fyi, though I freely admit to being capable of petulance.

Both sides are and have committed horrible acts/war crimes, imho. There's way, way too much evidence to believe anything else. There is also zero reason to believe a fresh shipment of western tanks will make an ounce of difference in the outcome/duration of this conflict, or an impact strategically/tactically.
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AgLA06
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:10a, 2/7/23
AG
nortex97 said:
There is also zero reason to believe a fresh shipment of western tanks will make an ounce of difference in the outcome/duration of this conflict, or an impact strategically/tactically.
That's interesting. A shipment of lightly armored troop vehicles allowed them to take Kharkiv and Kherson cities. Russia was so confident they couldn't take Kherson, they annexed it. I mean, it might take them until the end of the year to win the war, but it's really not a stretch to think a couple of armored battalions can't F up Russias world.

I can't imagine any real world power being so desperate to change the narrative and the ass kicking they are getting from such a lesser country, they feel the need to make up chemical weapon attacks that show small HE grenades.
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nortex97
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In reply to AgLA06 • 10:45a, 2/7/23
AG
Ok, fine, I'll check out as I know my take (which is anything but pro-Russia, fwiw) is not wanted on this thread, but close with again Douglas McGregor's most recent discussion. And note, his comments in that recent interview that the Republicans and Democrats are essentially the same in regards to foreign policy/Ukraine/Russia etc.

Tactically and strategically, pushing Russia and China together, with the latter just oh-by-the-way having demonstrated a simple ability to violate conus airspace with a vehicle that could easily have carried a weapon to shut down our electrical grid for weeks/months, is absolutely insane to me.

I do value alternative viewpoints, when not simply trolls/baiting for the sake of it. I actually wish I could agree with you guys/girls that throwing more weapons to escalate this toward some notional goal of absolute victory for the 'good' Ukrainians is both noble and achievable.
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AgLA06
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:54a, 2/7/23
AG
nortex97 said:
Ok, fine, I'll check out as I know my take (which is anything but pro-Russia, fwiw) is not wanted on this thread, but close with again Douglas McGregor's most recent discussion. And note, his comments in that recent interview that the Republicans and Democrats are essentially the same in regards to foreign policy/Ukraine/Russia etc.

Tactically and strategically, pushing Russia and China together, with the latter just oh-by-the-way having demonstrated a simple ability to violate conus airspace with a vehicle that could easily have carried a weapon to shut down our electrical grid for weeks/months, is absolutely insane to me.

I do value alternative viewpoints, when not simply trolls/baiting for the sake of it. I actually wish I could agree with you guys/girls that throwing more weapons to escalate this toward some notional goal of absolute victory for the 'good' Ukrainians is both noble and achievable.
1) If you don't think what you have posted is pro-Russa, I'd suggest re-evaluating things. You posted something so outlandish even most pro-Russian accounts haven't touched it. And they run their mouths constantly. That should tell you something.

2) Nothing you posted changes anything. Saying us backing Ukraine pushed Russia to China is a joke. Russia, North Korea, and China have been partners long before this war. Sanctions dicated it. Hell, if anything China has backed away from Russia during this dumb war. It doesn't appear they want anything to do with it. So no.

3) An intelligent argument would have been India. Iran doesn't change anything for the same reason China and North Korea partnering Russian doesn't. What other option do they have? India should be a concern. That emerging power will directly swing world balance in the next 2 decades. And is just about the only reason Russia doesn't have bread lines.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:56a, 2/7/23
AG
nortex97 said:
Arthur Morgan doesn't even sound Russian to me? There are strict rules about name-calling in my fan club, fyi, though I freely admit to being capable of petulance.

Both sides are and have committed horrible acts/war crimes, imho. There's way, way too much evidence to believe anything else. There is also zero reason to believe a fresh shipment of western tanks will make an ounce of difference in the outcome/duration of this conflict, or an impact strategically/tactically.
you mean evidence like this?

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-ukrainian-soldier-rescues-wounded-russian/

Or like this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre

FWIW I have been following this war like a hawk, passionate about good versus evil, the nature of evil, military tactics. Would be there direct but my first mission is to care for my wife and young children. I follow multiple channels/outlets even russian at times. Every war is filled with the horrors but I have seen NO evidence of Ukrainian war crimes against russian. Has an individual lost it and committed some cruel act....guaranteed but evil on a systemic level resides only with the orcs. The Funker530 video above IMO describes in perfect way who the Ukrainians are. Read "The Gulag Archipelago" and look at what the russians do to their own people to more fully understand the innate evil within them.

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Eliminatus
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:01a, 2/7/23
AG
nortex97 said:
Ok, fine, I'll check out as I know my take (which is anything but pro-Russia, fwiw) is not wanted on this thread, but close with again Douglas McGregor's most recent discussion. And note, his comments in that recent interview that the Republicans and Democrats are essentially the same in regards to foreign policy/Ukraine/Russia etc.

Tactically and strategically, pushing Russia and China together, with the latter just oh-by-the-way having demonstrated a simple ability to violate conus airspace with a vehicle that could easily have carried a weapon to shut down our electrical grid for weeks/months, is absolutely insane to me.

I do value alternative viewpoints, when not simply trolls/baiting for the sake of it. I actually wish I could agree with you guys/girls that throwing more weapons to escalate this toward some notional goal of absolute victory for the 'good' Ukrainians is both noble and achievable.


Agree to disagree. Not a damn thing wrong with that. Fun even at times! EVERYONE has made up their mind about this war by now and very, very few will break from that. That's just the state of politics these days. Just don't play a victim when you don't get the audience you want though.

If you have something more substantial than conjecture and suspect twitter videos of chem warfare use, than please share! Or even a well thought out rationale on why the Ukes would resort to singular chem grenades at this stage would be worthy of discussion. Not only would it be dumb, it is actually regressive in capabilities. It makes absolute zero sense IMO.
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richardag
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11:04a, 2/7/23
Straying from the thread topic. Maybe need separate thread on the political implications of aiding Ukraine or not?
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twk
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:09a, 2/7/23
AG
nortex97 said:
Ok, fine, I'll check out as I know my take (which is anything but pro-Russia, fwiw) is not wanted on this thread, but close with again Douglas McGregor's most recent discussion. And note, his comments in that recent interview that the Republicans and Democrats are essentially the same in regards to foreign policy/Ukraine/Russia etc.

Tactically and strategically, pushing Russia and China together, with the latter just oh-by-the-way having demonstrated a simple ability to violate conus airspace with a vehicle that could easily have carried a weapon to shut down our electrical grid for weeks/months, is absolutely insane to me.

I do value alternative viewpoints, when not simply trolls/baiting for the sake of it. I actually wish I could agree with you guys/girls that throwing more weapons to escalate this toward some notional goal of absolute victory for the 'good' Ukrainians is both noble and achievable.
There is no absolute victory in this theater for the foreseeable future. Putin will die before he gives up on conquering Ukraine, and Russian opinion on the matter in general will take some time to get used to the notion of Ukraine as a truly independent country. However, this war will reach a stopping point, and it's important what that stopping point is. If the stopping point is one where Russia simply banks its gains, we'll see more Russian offensive action in short order once they have regrouped. However, if the stopping point comes when Russia has paid a great price, like the loss of Crimea, it will probably take quite some time for Russia to recover and resume hostilities. It remains to be seen whether Ukraine can achieve that kind of success or not, but the only way to find out is to give them equipment we don't need, but which they can put to good use.
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