Today's SITREP.

My quick internet search says that the ODS-SA has thermal night vision for the driver (I think Stryker was the first I remember to have this. Although I was never in any unit that had M2A3s), armor upgrades, embedded diagnostic and training systems, and multifunction displays. I'm guess that last means Blue Force Tracker or similar. If it has training stuff built in, that might mean they can do at least some of the pre-shooting gunnery and crew training without the UCOFT trainers that us 90s mech/armor types knew so well.

(UCOFT = Unit Conduct of Fire Trainer. Basically, it's a mock up of the inside of the turret combined with 80s vintage video game tech [at least thats what we had in the late 90s] to train crews on where all the controls and switches are, and basic target engagement procedures.)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/business/economy/russia-sanctions-trade-china-turkey.html

Interesting, and frustrating, article on why economic sanctions haven't had the intended effect and how supply chains in/out of Russia have shifted. Some excerpts:

-Russian trade appears to have largely bounced back to where it was before the invasion of Ukraine last February. Analysts estimate that Russia's imports may have already recovered to prewar levels, or will soon do so, depending on their models.

-Fewer than 9 percent of companies based in the European Union and Group of 7 nations had divested one of their Russian subsidiaries

-On Monday, the International Monetary Fund said it now expected the Russian economy to grow 0.3 percent this year, a sharp improvement from its previous estimate of a 2.3 percent contraction.

-Matthew Klein, an economics writer and a co-author of "Trade Wars Are Class Wars," is one of the people drawing conclusions about this Russia-size hole in the global economy. According to his calculations, the value of global exports to Russia in November was just 15 percent below a monthly preinvasion average. Global exports to Russia most likely fully recovered in December, though many countries have not yet issued their trade data for the month, he said.

Great point, and could be the case with the majority of those assets.

UPDATE

Smeghead4761 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that #Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessment that an offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action.https://t.co/BOss1GjKHc pic.twitter.com/LyzFcyzvtu

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) January 31, 2023

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The M2A2 ODS (Operation Desert Storm) doesn't have a Mk-19. The only grenade launcher the vehicle is equipped with are the smoke grenade launchers. Armament is a 25mm chain gun, M240C coax, and twin box TOW launcher, plus dismount troop weapons.

The M2A2 ODS is state of the late 90s tech, and consists of upgrades recommended after Desert Storm. My unit in Germany was one of the last units in the Army to field them, in Feb 2000. Upgrades to the ODS over the base M2A2 include:

- laser rangefinder (previously, gunner indexed the range manually in 200m increments)
- replacing the individual dismount seats with bench seats like in the M113.
- revised stowage for reserve 25mm ammo
- addition of a hot water box/MRE heater. Idea borrowed from the Brits, who have water heaters for making tea on all their armored vehicles.

I'm not sure if the thermals were upgraded from the base M2A2 or if that didn't happen to the M2A3.

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BFT also allows artillery to see and target what is input to the system and plots the location of minefields, battlefield obstacles, bridges that are damaged, etc., too.

M2A2 ODS-SA

RebelE Infantry said:

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Australian mercenary: “Wagner is near peer.”
-> He describes the overmatch in combat capability between Wagner and Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/TLiBiqrEZ7

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) January 31, 2023

Interesting insight into the capabilities and tactics of Wagner. Before this war I never viewed PMCs as fully integrated combined arms units, but rather possibly better than average small unit light infantry.

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So it appears at least some of that interview isn't entirely correct.

The below is in reference to the Bradleys we're sending over.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/31/ukraines-new-m-2-fighting-vehicles-know-a-high-tech-trick-each-can-see-what-the-others-see/?sh=7ad2a9d316a6

This so-called "Blue Force Tracker" won't be the first battlefield networking system in Ukrainian military service. The Ukrainians have cobbled together their own network they call "Kropyva," which runs on computer tablets and displays a digital map of Ukraine, onto which users can plot the locations of any Russian forces they spot.

Kropyva famously helps Ukrainian air-defense crews warn each other about approaching Russian warplanes. It's unclear whether the Ukrainian network works at the much more granular tactical level, accurately plotting individual ground vehicles.

Smeghead4761 said:

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- addition of a hot water box/MRE heater. Idea borrowed from the Brits, who have water heaters for making tea on all their armored vehicles.

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This is amazing

Back to strategy.

I think all of us are a little perplexed by the way Ukraine is handling the Bakhmut offensive by Russia. We all know it is spearheaded by Wagner, yet it appears Russian Marines, VDV, and even special forces are actively engaged behind the wall of human meat they are throwing at the town.

Essentially let the convicts and conscripts soak up the bullets and artillery and then hit with small capable attack groups at times of weakness. It's a much better strategy than Russia has done in the last year (maybe Wagner's plan and not MOD) and it appears to be working. Although at really small increments that none of us would think were worth the cost.

I think the real question we're all wondering, is why isn't Ukraine calling up the reserves and hitting this on the flanks and dealing a major blow to what appears is a small pocket of the best troops and equipment Russia has in Ukraine?

Are they willing to wait it out and counter attack when it finally fizzles at huge costs? Are they somehow out of reinforcement even though everything points to that not being the case? Or is this just not important enough to be drawn into a larger, decisive battle?

I'm starting to wonder if the last point is the case. Intelligence is saying Russia is showing an upcoming offensive. We know the Ukes are also planning some kind of spring offensive. Maybe it's just as simple as has been stated. Bakhmut isn't strategically important to Ukraine and not worth throwing more equipment and troops at. Maybe bleeding Russia and tying up all their best units is a win for them while they game plan elsewhere. It would suck to be a Uke there expected to hold the line and make this a Monte Casino type donkey punch. But something else has to be brewing. There's been too much equipment donated and too many troops trained and equipped for them to be out of reinforcement for a battle this small in scale.

AgLA06 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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Australian mercenary: “Wagner is near peer.”
-> He describes the overmatch in combat capability between Wagner and Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/TLiBiqrEZ7

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) January 31, 2023

Interesting insight into the capabilities and tactics of Wagner. Before this war I never viewed PMCs as fully integrated combined arms units, but rather possibly better than average small unit light infantry.

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So it appears at least some of that interview isn't entirely correct.

The below is in reference to the Bradleys we're sending over.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/31/ukraines-new-m-2-fighting-vehicles-know-a-high-tech-trick-each-can-see-what-the-others-see/?sh=7ad2a9d316a6

This so-called "Blue Force Tracker" won't be the first battlefield networking system in Ukrainian military service. The Ukrainians have cobbled together their own network they call "Kropyva," which runs on computer tablets and displays a digital map of Ukraine, onto which users can plot the locations of any Russian forces they spot.

Kropyva famously helps Ukrainian air-defense crews warn each other about approaching Russian warplanes. It's unclear whether the Ukrainian network works at the much more granular tactical level, accurately plotting individual ground vehicles.

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As I understood him, he was specifically referencing the squad/platoon/company level.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Smeghead4761 said:

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- addition of a hot water box/MRE heater. Idea borrowed from the Brits, who have water heaters for making tea on all their armored vehicles.

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This is amazing

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I have a buddy who always says it's the little luxuries in war that mean the most when stuck in the meat grinder.

74OA said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Back to strategy.

I think all of us are a little perplexed by the way Ukraine is handling the Bakhmut offensive by Russia. We all know it is spearheaded by Wagner, yet it appears Russian Marines, VDV, and even special forces are actively engaged behind the wall of human meat they are throwing at the town.

Essentially let the convicts and conscripts soak up the bullets and artillery and then hit with small capable attack groups at times of weakness. It's a much better strategy than Russia has done in the last year (may be Wagner's plan and not MOD) and it appears to be working. Although at really small increments that none of us would think were worth the cost.

I think the real question we're all wondering, is why isn't Ukraine calling up the reserves and hitting this on the flanks and dealing a major blow to what appears is a small pocket of the best troops and equipment Russia has in Ukraine?

Are they willing to wait it out and counter attack when it finally fizzles at huge costs? Are they somehow out of reinforcement even though everything points to that not being the case? Or is this just not important enough to be drawn into a larger, decisive battle?

I'm starting to wonder if the last point is the case. Intelligence is saying Russia is showing an upcoming offensive. We know the Ukes are also planning some kind of spring offensive. Maybe it's just as simple as has been stated. Bakhmut isn't strategically important to Ukraine and not worth throwing more equipment and troops at. Maybe bleeding Russia and tying up all their best units is a win for them while they game plan elsewhere. It would suck to be a Uke their expected to hold the line and make this a Monte Casino type donkey punch. But something else has to be brewing. There's been too much equipment donated and too many troops trained and equipped for them to be out of reinforcement for a battle this small in scale.

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IMO, Ukraine believes the decisive battle will be fought to regain the south, not the east. The occupied south includes much of its valuable coastline and ports, roughly 20% of its most productive agricultural land and regaining it will safeguard vital Odessa and Kherson cities, plus also secure Ukraine's absolutely essential internal defensive depth.

Ukraine knows it can live without the Donbas--it spent the years since 2014 proving that--but its survival as a viable independent state will be much, much more difficult without its southlands.

So, I suspect Ukraine is committed to an economical defense in the east while it husbands its resources for a southern spring offensive. In the meantime, Kiev is more than happy to let Wagner's meatgrinder eastern offense bleed Russian combat power for strategically inconsequential gains.

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Currently the ground conditions likely do not permit a Ukrainian Offensive with armor and while they wait there with significantly greater losses on the russian side so might as well wait and in a month will be getting new assets.

Almost all russian advances have been stopped in their tracks and smashed to pieces. The ones getting through I mostly attribute to a lack of discipline while in current miserable conditions. Months ago I did a full write up with links to two separate drone videos of a successful attack by the russians. I Have not posted them yet but will at some point. At this attack, there as an L shaped trench across a road with checkpoint. The trench/fighting positions extended about 400 meters and turned ninety degrees towards the russian lines for about 200M. It was early morning and about 4000M away 2 tanks and 2 IFVs advanced directly towards checkpoint. The Ukes who at this time are all bunched up at the check point and not out on the line(coffee time). call in Arty and make at least one correction but the armor speeds through without getting hit. Complacency kills. This was probably the first time in dozens the advance wasn't turned back by Arty. Now one of the tanks is within a couple hundred meters and firing directly on the checkpoint where the Ukes still are. Two brave soldiers attempt to use ATGM but miss as the tank is blasting them. The IFVs roll up unload INF and assault through the position. This would have failed if one or more of the Ukes stayed out on the line in security with an ATGM who would have had clear LOS from the flank or at least not directly ahead on one or more of the 4 armor pieces. Hitting the first or second one would have likely turned back the others. These two videos could serve a great learning lesson in the value of discipline and that complacency kills.

This problem doesn't present itself on the main active fronts Bakhmut/Soledar but areas near where the lines have been quiet and the Ukes get surprised.

Before the war the Wagner group was around 5000-10,000 strong with the majority coming from special operations backgrounds. Since then they have grown to around 50,000 with around 80% of the new troops coming from prisons. These are probably the troops being sent in mass over open ground where Russia is trading bullets for soldiers.

The head is Yevgeny Prigozhin who is nicknamed "Putin's chef" since he started out getting military contract for food for the troops. Since then there has been a lot of back door deals with his rise to power. Technically in Russia PMCs are illegal but when you Putin's right hand man they bend a few rules, as you can see they train with the Russian military.

Wagner is or was working in Africa, Syria, Chechnya, Libya, and Ukraine so they have a lot of experience and are known to be quite brutal. They control the mines in CAR where if they catch you stealing diamonds they torture your family in front of you and then throw them into a pit full of ants where you are eaten alive.

Quote:

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3 people killed, 20 wounded as result of Russian missile strike with Iskander-K missile against residential apartments block in Kramatorsk

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/1-february-3-people-killed-20-wounded-as-result-of-russian

Today's SITREP.

Southern #Ukraine:

Russian forces are continuing to carry out disruption missions on islands in the Dnipro River delta in #Kherson Oblast in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from gaining ground on the islands. https://t.co/QHtKCCBqr4 pic.twitter.com/cWOrzs6eTB

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 2, 2023

Russian convoy defeated by road traffic pic.twitter.com/WGvTi7MCcY

— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) February 1, 2023

Map updates at 22:37 are very interesting.

AgLA06 said:

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Back to strategy.

I think all of us are a little perplexed by the way Ukraine is handling the Bakhmut offensive by Russia. We all know it is spearheaded by Wagner, yet it appears Russian Marines, VDV, and even special forces are actively engaged behind the wall of human meat they are throwing at the town.

Essentially let the convicts and conscripts soak up the bullets and artillery and then hit with small capable attack groups at times of weakness. It's a much better strategy than Russia has done in the last year (maybe Wagner's plan and not MOD) and it appears to be working. Although at really small increments that none of us would think were worth the cost.

I think the real question we're all wondering, is why isn't Ukraine calling up the reserves and hitting this on the flanks and dealing a major blow to what appears is a small pocket of the best troops and equipment Russia has in Ukraine?

Are they willing to wait it out and counter attack when it finally fizzles at huge costs? Are they somehow out of reinforcement even though everything points to that not being the case? Or is this just not important enough to be drawn into a larger, decisive battle?

I'm starting to wonder if the last point is the case. Intelligence is saying Russia is showing an upcoming offensive. We know the Ukes are also planning some kind of spring offensive. Maybe it's just as simple as has been stated. Bakhmut isn't strategically important to Ukraine and not worth throwing more equipment and troops at. Maybe bleeding Russia and tying up all their best units is a win for them while they game plan elsewhere. It would suck to be a Uke there expected to hold the line and make this a Monte Casino type donkey punch. But something else has to be brewing. There's been too much equipment donated and too many troops trained and equipped for them to be out of reinforcement for a battle this small in scale.

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I worry that it's more Ockham's Razor-

the Ukes don't have the strength to conduct effective counter-attacks so are hunkering down and playing for time.

Waffledynamics said:

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Southern #Ukraine:

Russian forces are continuing to carry out disruption missions on islands in the Dnipro River delta in #Kherson Oblast in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from gaining ground on the islands. https://t.co/QHtKCCBqr4 pic.twitter.com/cWOrzs6eTB

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 2, 2023

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NATO should be providing assault boats/ferries secretly to the Ukes

and then in the spring in one dark night move over 50 new tanks at the narrowest point across from the Kherson Dnipro river crossings.

that is excellent ground to fan out in a blitzkrieg attack once you get past the shoreline defenses. that would also threaten supply lines from Crimea

this provides the advantage of surprise as well as not attacking dug in prepared defenses in depth which exist in most of the rest of the front

Quote:

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NATO should be providing assault boats/ferries secretly to the Ukes

and then in the spring in one dark night move over 50 new tanks at the narrowest point across from the Kherson Dnipro river crossings.

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How would you hide the delivery of multiple boats/ferries large enough to transport a tank? Wouldn't think that a craft that size could be easily trailered

Interesting discussion of whether it is in the US interest to assist Ukraine in retaking Crimea.

GO/NO GO?

First timeline I've seen, but likely overly optimistic: "GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan."

MORE RANGE

Here's how the artillery shells for Ukraine are manufactured.

LOGISTICS

agent-maroon said:

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Quote:

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NATO should be providing assault boats/ferries secretly to the Ukes

and then in the spring in one dark night move over 50 new tanks at the narrowest point across from the Kherson Dnipro river crossings.

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How would you hide the delivery of multiple boats/ferries large enough to transport a tank? Wouldn't think that a craft that size could be easily trailered

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Ferries can be assembled in parts that are small enough to but in the back of a truck.

agent-maroon said:

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Quote:

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NATO should be providing assault boats/ferries secretly to the Ukes

and then in the spring in one dark night move over 50 new tanks at the narrowest point across from the Kherson Dnipro river crossings.

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How would you hide the delivery of multiple boats/ferries large enough to transport a tank? Wouldn't think that a craft that size could be easily trailered

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the Russians hid offensives against the Germans made up of 65 divisions during Operation Bagration. Much less at Stalingrad.

you could have the boats on the Polish border and transport them in during a 24 hour period, cover them during the day and have them move during the dark. or camouflage them as 18 wheelers.

by the time the Russians see it on their satellites it's too late.

obviously you need to have SAMs in place beforehand to protect the crossings to stop the inevitable Russian interdiction efforts

or if they are of a certain type of assault boat they could be hidden in odessa and then transported by water up to the mouth of the Dnipro which is where there are battles going on right now between special forces on both sides fighting over the small islands there.

I enjoyed reading that article.

Some of the comments are comical. About what you would expect from nyt readers.

Thank you and aezmvp for the explanations.

The OSINT circles I'm in have been confident for months that Bakhmut is more of an internal political goal for Russia (and Wagner especially), and it's not a hugely strategically significant city to hold for Ukraine. Ukraine will definitely make them bleed for it, though.

My amateur mind doesn't want to see Ukraine lose anything, but everyone seems to agree it's primarily to grind up Russian meat.

Waffledynamics said:

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Southern #Ukraine:

Russian forces are continuing to carry out disruption missions on islands in the Dnipro River delta in #Kherson Oblast in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from gaining ground on the islands. https://t.co/QHtKCCBqr4 pic.twitter.com/cWOrzs6eTB

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 2, 2023

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........and getting occasionally nailed in the process. BOATS