Waffledynamics said:

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Considering the legislature allowed for Ukrainians to learn how to use US aircraft back in July, I'd be shocked if the Ukrainians haven't been training this entire time. If the announcement of F16s is made, it will likely coincide with Ukrainian pilots being proficient enough to effectively use them.

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Not sure if related... I'm in western Llano county and ever since this started there's been a large increase of low flying military jets out here. I've been wondering if we are training others or just our guys..

SouthTex99 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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At the peak of the Vietnam War, we had 550,000 people over there and bombed the hell out that country of a population about same size as Ukraine.

We still eventually got worn down and lost.

Never underestimate a determined foe trying to repel an invader. This Ukraine War may very well last several years like Vietnam did. Whether or not Russia ends up as the occupier of any additional land at the very end of this, who knows, but I am skeptical they will ever 'defeat' the Ukes any more than we ever defeated the NVA in Nam.

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I agree I think the endgame here is there is no endgame. The status quo will be a Donbas style hotzone in the east and northeast like they experienced 2014 - Feb 2022. Whoever takes over for Putin, whenever that is, will determine how and if this conflict can ever really end.

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I agree. I think by the summer we will know the fate of this war. One side or the other could make great gains in their offensive and end the war relatively quickly.

On the other hand, the more likely scenario is that either side is not able to overcome the others defenses and an attrition stalemate occurs. Then the big determining factors of the war will be who emerges from the Russian power struggle once Putin dies of cancer, and when will the west's support dry up.

UPDATE

Waffledynamics said:

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Oof.

‼️Insane footage of the battle for the city of Vuhledar.

The 72nd Brigade of Ukraine continues to repulse all attacks, demilitarize the Russians, destroy and disable their equipment.
Here the use of proximity fuse to hit the Russian infantry?
cc:@noclador , @CasualArtyFan pic.twitter.com/Hc5vvMTiKH

— @PStyleOne1 (@PStyle0ne1) January 28, 2023

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as much as we all look at the Russian bear as a paper tiger-

something does have to be said for the fact that they are taking massive casualties and yet still able to advance and hold their lines.

For as much as their morale might suffer, they have not lost unit cohesion and are able to still execute operational directives.

hopefully the summer offensive with 300 tanks rolling over their trenches will be the breaking point.

Erdogan still blocking accession of Sweden and Finland into NATO. ASSHAT

LMCane said:

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hopefully the summer offensive with 300 tanks rolling over their trenches will be the breaking point.

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Hopefully the sound of F16s will make them lose their will.

shiftyandquick said:

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LMCane said:

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hopefully the summer offensive with 300 tanks rolling over their trenches will be the breaking point.

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Hopefully the sound of F16s will make them lose their will.

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Or a bunch of these ripping off some 25MM, TOWs or MK19s.

There is a longer version of the failed orc assault showing multiple air burst munitions. Their use seems to have increased lately and I am glad for it.

60 US-donated M2A2 ODS Bradleys are loaded onto ARC Integrity in North Charleston, South Carolina, bound for Ukrainian service. pic.twitter.com/yWMfzSZ4IU

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) January 30, 2023

Today's SITREP.

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that #Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessment that an offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action.https://t.co/BOss1GjKHc pic.twitter.com/LyzFcyzvtu

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) January 31, 2023

Hard to imagine a situation where #Bakhmut is defendable following the fall of Ivanivske. Russian forces have a long way to go before that happens, but the trend is clear. https://t.co/hrbzde5WO8

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) January 31, 2023

Waffledynamics said:

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Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that #Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessment that an offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action.https://t.co/BOss1GjKHc pic.twitter.com/LyzFcyzvtu

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) January 31, 2023

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The M2A2 ODS (Operation Desert Storm) doesn't have a Mk-19. The only grenade launcher the vehicle is equipped with are the smoke grenade launchers. Armament is a 25mm chain gun, M240C coax, and twin box TOW launcher, plus dismount troop weapons.

The M2A2 ODS is state of the late 90s tech, and consists of upgrades recommended after Desert Storm. My unit in Germany was one of the last units in the Army to field them, in Feb 2000. Upgrades to the ODS over the base M2A2 include:

- laser rangefinder (previously, gunner indexed the range manually in 200m increments)
- replacing the individual dismount seats with bench seats like in the M113.
- revised stowage for reserve 25mm ammo
- addition of a hot water box/MRE heater. Idea borrowed from the Brits, who have water heaters for making tea on all their armored vehicles.

I'm not sure if the thermals were upgraded from the base M2A2 or if that didn't happen to the M2A3.

Quote:

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Putin ordered to search vehicles for weapons and explosives in regions with "yellow threat"

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/31-january-putin-ordered-to-search-vehicles-for-weapons-and

I have no first hand knowledge of any of this, but thought it interesting...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-marines-just-attempted-another-frontal-assault-on-ukrainian-positions-around-pavlivka-the-result-was-predictably-bloody/ar-AA16VbnJ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8af073ce53f64fcba713fe01ff410222

France will supply 12 additional Caesar guns to Ukraine - Minister of the French Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu. https://t.co/0ZChhK468O pic.twitter.com/sVVix63oAG

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 31, 2023

Rongagin71 said:

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I have no first hand knowledge of any of this, but thought it interesting...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-marines-just-attempted-another-frontal-assault-on-ukrainian-positions-around-pavlivka-the-result-was-predictably-bloody/ar-AA16VbnJ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8af073ce53f64fcba713fe01ff410222

---

That article references Nov assault. The video below is more recent and just as much an epic failure.

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-dozens-of-russian-marines-killed-by-artillery/

Possibly NSFW Video below is brutal and may not be for everyone ...not easy for me either but war is horrific in general and given what russians have done to innocents and even POWs I am ok with seeing. This not to be confused with enjoying as I have empathy for most human life unless you have harmed children.

ATGMs not limited to armor targets and gives a great view of how the kinetic energy makes the shape charge effective against armor. The Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP) from the HEAT round or High Explosive Anti-Tank can clearly be seen after the triggering explosion reaching speeds up to 2 KM per second. This is the dust/copper trail visibly seen passing through the target. The ATGM is originating lower right on the screen in most angles.

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russian-troops-get-dominated-by-multiple-atgms/

Smeghead4761 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that #Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessment that an offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action.https://t.co/BOss1GjKHc pic.twitter.com/LyzFcyzvtu

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) January 31, 2023

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The M2A2 ODS (Operation Desert Storm) doesn't have a Mk-19. The only grenade launcher the vehicle is equipped with are the smoke grenade launchers. Armament is a 25mm chain gun, M240C coax, and twin box TOW launcher, plus dismount troop weapons.

The M2A2 ODS is state of the late 90s tech, and consists of upgrades recommended after Desert Storm. My unit in Germany was one of the last units in the Army to field them, in Feb 2000. Upgrades to the ODS over the base M2A2 include:

- laser rangefinder (previously, gunner indexed the range manually in 200m increments)
- replacing the individual dismount seats with bench seats like in the M113.
- revised stowage for reserve 25mm ammo
- addition of a hot water box/MRE heater. Idea borrowed from the Brits, who have water heaters for making tea on all their armored vehicles.

I'm not sure if the thermals were upgraded from the base M2A2 or if that didn't happen to the M2A3.

---

Everything I have read is they are getting at least 60 of the M2A2 ODS-SA upgraded model. I have no idea what this means having zero US mech/armor experience with the exception of a couple days out of 2 weeks while INF Squad competing in the Czech Republic but with Soviet AFV/IFVs. I mistakenly put the MK19 option in previous post either wishfully thinking or confusing with one of the other foreign IFVs going in like the CV90, because of its trench clearing capabilities.

I am also not sure if there is any component(s) of this SA or even the base model being stripped for export. This group of 60 has already set sail on day 2 across the pond.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/m2a2-ods-sa-ukraine-to-receive-one-of-the-most-advanced-versions-of-bradley/

JFABNRGR said:

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Rongagin71 said:

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I have no first hand knowledge of any of this, but thought it interesting...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-marines-just-attempted-another-frontal-assault-on-ukrainian-positions-around-pavlivka-the-result-was-predictably-bloody/ar-AA16VbnJ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8af073ce53f64fcba713fe01ff410222

---

That article references Nov assault. The video below is more recent and just as much an epic failure.

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-dozens-of-russian-marines-killed-by-artillery/

Possibly NSFW Video below is brutal and may not be for everyone ...not easy for me either but war is horrific in general and given what russians have done to innocents and even POWs I am ok with seeing. This not to be confused with enjoying as I have empathy for most human life unless you have harmed children.

ATGMs not limited to armor targets and gives a great view of how the kinetic energy makes the shape charge effective against armor. The Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP) from the HEAT round or High Explosive Anti-Tank can clearly be seen after the triggering explosion reaching speeds up to 2 KM per second. This is the dust/copper trail visibly seen passing through the target. The ATGM is originating lower right on the screen in most angles.

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russian-troops-get-dominated-by-multiple-atgms/

---

for as much as the media we follow focuses on the convicts and "bad morale" of the Russkies,

they kept going back to pick up wounded and each time the next group would get wiped out

so at least that unit had strong cohesion and devotion to their duty.

hopefully it was Wagner and not mainline Russian Army units.

UPDATE

Yet another intelligence coup for the West and yet another example why we are reluctant to send high-end systems.

MISSILE

LMCane said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Rongagin71 said:

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I have no first hand knowledge of any of this, but thought it interesting...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-marines-just-attempted-another-frontal-assault-on-ukrainian-positions-around-pavlivka-the-result-was-predictably-bloody/ar-AA16VbnJ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8af073ce53f64fcba713fe01ff410222

---

That article references Nov assault. The video below is more recent and just as much an epic failure.

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-dozens-of-russian-marines-killed-by-artillery/

Possibly NSFW Video below is brutal and may not be for everyone ...not easy for me either but war is horrific in general and given what russians have done to innocents and even POWs I am ok with seeing. This not to be confused with enjoying as I have empathy for most human life unless you have harmed children.

ATGMs not limited to armor targets and gives a great view of how the kinetic energy makes the shape charge effective against armor. The Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP) from the HEAT round or High Explosive Anti-Tank can clearly be seen after the triggering explosion reaching speeds up to 2 KM per second. This is the dust/copper trail visibly seen passing through the target. The ATGM is originating lower right on the screen in most angles.

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russian-troops-get-dominated-by-multiple-atgms/

---

for as much as the media we follow focuses on the convicts and "bad morale" of the Russkies,

they kept going back to pick up wounded and each time the next group would get wiped out

so at least that unit had strong cohesion and devotion to their duty.

hopefully it was Wagner and not mainline Russian Army units.

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Yes, I was feely uneasy watching that. Are drone-strikes are so impersonal that a group of guys carrying their buddy on a stretcher are targeted for attack?

Drone operators have a much lower PTSD rate than infantry, watching it through a monitor is not the same as watching it in person.

This has long been a tactic in wars, wound someone so multiple people have to help and attack them. Easy in a situation like this where you already have the target zeroed. Is it moral? Depends on your view, if I was a Uke soldier knowing that Russia has been raping and murdering kids and families I am taking out every single Russian I have a chance to.

If you read Dave Grossman's On Killing the normal human condition is not to kill another human, even if in war. I would have to look at the book again but when the USA used circle targets the hit rate was 10% in war, when they used human shaped targets it went up to 25%. Using a drone is almost like a video game where you take a lot of the human element out of it.

We are learning a lot in this war, Joe Rogan has been talking about robot wars for a while and most of us, including me, just laughed. Drones have proven incredibly effective in this war whether it be for surveillance or offensive.

Not drones. Anti armor weapons like our Javelons or TOWs.

Ukes were probably well outside of small arms range and they were grouping.

I personally wouldn't know, but I imagine at this point of that battle it's been such a meat grinder for both sides, that second thoughts are just about removed from reality. Its purely a battle of attrition.

P.U.T.U said:

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Drone operators have a much lower PTSD rate than infantry, watching it through a monitor is not the same as watching it in person.

This has long been a tactic in wars, wound someone so multiple people have to help and attack them. Easy in a situation like this where you already have the target zeroed. Is it moral? Depends on your view, if I was a Uke soldier knowing that Russia has been raping and murdering kids and families I am taking out every single Russian I have a chance to.

If you read Dave Grossman's On Killing the normal human condition is not to kill another human, even if in war. I would have to look at the book again but when the USA used circle targets the hit rate was 10% in war, when they used human shaped targets it went up to 25%. Using a drone is almost like a video game where you take a lot of the human element out of it.

We are learning a lot in this war, Joe Rogan has been talking about robot wars for a while and most of us, including me, just laughed. Drones have proven incredibly effective in this war whether it be for surveillance or offensive.

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I knew a Vietnam F4 driver and he would tell stories about strafing runs and pink mist. I know a Vietnam era medic and he never discussed the war.

Physical distance from the target clearly has an impact on one's psyche.

Australian mercenary: “Wagner is near peer.”
-> He describes the overmatch in combat capability between Wagner and Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/TLiBiqrEZ7

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) January 31, 2023

Interesting insight into the capabilities and tactics of Wagner. Before this war I never viewed PMCs as fully integrated combined arms units, but rather possibly better than average small unit light infantry.

P.U.T.U said:

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Drone operators have a much lower PTSD rate than infantry, watching it through a monitor is not the same as watching it in person.

This has long been a tactic in wars, wound someone so multiple people have to help and attack them. Easy in a situation like this where you already have the target zeroed. Is it moral? Depends on your view, if I was a Uke soldier knowing that Russia has been raping and murdering kids and families I am taking out every single Russian I have a chance to.

If you read Dave Grossman's On Killing the normal human condition is not to kill another human, even if in war. I would have to look at the book again but when the USA used circle targets the hit rate was 10% in war, when they used human shaped targets it went up to 25%. Using a drone is almost like a video game where you take a lot of the human element out of it.

We are learning a lot in this war, Joe Rogan has been talking about robot wars for a while and most of us, including me, just laughed. Drones have proven incredibly effective in this war whether it be for surveillance or offensive.

---

This is actually considered a huge problem from another perspective. Remote and autonomous killing lowers the perceived cost. This decreasing "risk" could end up giving military and political leaders an easier decision path to press a button or say "go". IOTW, it may be easier to kill due to a decreased mental/emotional (desensitization) impact. There is no easy answer here due to the evolution of war.

I'm skeptical. How would that individual know intricate details of both sides? Especially since it doesn't match recent history.

They weren't anything close to near peer in Syria that was for sure.

AgLA06 said:

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I'm skeptical. How would that individual know intricate details of both sides? Especially since it doesn't match recent history.

They weren't anything close to near peer in Syria that was for sure.

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If he's a merc that was fighting alongside Ukraine, he could make/get observations of Wagner.

I don't know how credible the interview is. I'm just playing devil's advocate.

Waffledynamics said:

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AgLA06 said:

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I'm skeptical. How would that individual know intricate details of both sides? Especially since it doesn't match recent history.

They weren't anything close to near peer in Syria that was for sure.

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If he's a merc that was fighting alongside Ukraine, he could make/get observations of Wagner.

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Presumably this is the case.

AgLA06 said:

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I'm skeptical. How would that individual know intricate details of both sides? Especially since it doesn't match recent history.

They weren't anything close to near peer in Syria that was for sure.

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It is an interesting discussion though. Money (or equipment, training, etc) and motivation tend to be what separates units.

I can absolutely see Wagner being a cut above conscripts and NG level of unit. Hell, Swiss mercs were the terror of Europe for many years in the Middle Ages. Our own PMCs were pretty top notch in their inception phase.

The real dynamic I see though is the free reign Wagner seems to have. Or at least much greater control of it than regular army. LOTs of reports that Wagner is basically a second army unto itself and there is discord and even belligerence between the two. Even if we take the gray area in between propaganda, there seems to be something of some truth there.

And it is pretty easy to tell the quality of units you fight especially if you go through it back to back. Seen that personally in Iraq and Afghanistan. They get lumped together for convenience sake but in reality they were two completely different wars with two very different enemies. I could tell easily enough even as a dumb jarhead at the firing end of their rifles.

Wagner definitely has better gear though. I don't think that is in question and their motivation has to be better than the conscripts around them. Meaning some of them will actually give a **** and try to be better. Which means serious training and discipline.

Don't Wagner that Wagner has their own armor and air assets.

I doubt they're flying a lot now but they had jets and helicopters in Syria and Africa. As recently as last summer they were producing videos of Wagner pilots flying their su-25s over the countryside.

Their leaders are playing a dangerous game of being Putin's ally and savior and also positioning themselves to take over if/when Putin's regime collapses.

Eliminatus said:

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AgLA06 said:

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I'm skeptical. How would that individual know intricate details of both sides? Especially since it doesn't match recent history.

They weren't anything close to near peer in Syria that was for sure.

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It is an interesting discussion though. Money (or equipment, training, etc) and motivation tend to be what separates units.

I can absolutely see Wagner being a cut above conscripts and NG level of unit.

Wagner definitely has better gear though. I don't think that is in question and their motivation has to be better than the conscripts around them. Meaning some of them will actually give a **** and try to be better. Which means serious training and discipline.

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I can agree with all this. That's common sense. But he was talking about integration of combined arms and artillery spotting and technology use a person wouldn't know standing in an opposing trench.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10qfrij/the_us_is_preparing_an_aid_package_for_ukraine/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

I hope they can put this to good use. The range puts a lot more in play. Kill every Russian you can reach in occupied Ukraine!!!

this could really f'up Russian logistics