In Ilovaisk, explosions / strikes from the railway direction are reported. pic.twitter.com/T8BVzJZaxK

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 28, 2023

Mospyne, 🇷🇺-occupied, now 💥 pic.twitter.com/oSJEFSlDWU

— M|§F|T 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@am_misfit) January 28, 2023

Oof.

‼️Insane footage of the battle for the city of Vuhledar.

The 72nd Brigade of Ukraine continues to repulse all attacks, demilitarize the Russians, destroy and disable their equipment.
Here the use of proximity fuse to hit the Russian infantry?
cc:@noclador , @CasualArtyFan pic.twitter.com/Hc5vvMTiKH

— @PStyleOne1 also PStyleOne1@mastodon.online (@PStyle0ne1) January 28, 2023

Ukrainian forces from the 47th Assault Brigade have received M1224 MaxxPro MRAPs, augmenting their NATO standard M-55s tanks, small arms, and newly donated M2A2 Bradley ODS IFVs. pic.twitter.com/isfPiQqTSn

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) January 28, 2023

Modern infantry combat . Soon as they got attacked 76th VDV instantly launches quadcopter,and starts to correct fire for its automatic grenade launcher. pic.twitter.com/8oEviAuEhH

— Gammon (@GammonBadge) January 27, 2023

Interesting video showing the development of infantry combat spurred by this war.

Indeed, drones have had an incredibly interesting impact on both sides of this. I'm curious if they actually did anything since they don't show any aftermath footage, but the fact remains that drones have been utilized by both sides for just these sorts of corrections.

Waffledynamics said:

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Indeed, drones have had an incredibly interesting impact on both sides of this. I'm curious if they actually did anything since they don't show any aftermath footage, but the fact remains that drones have been utilized by both sides for just these sorts of corrections.

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Yep, for example, the US Army has bought thousands of these so every infantry squad has organic overwatch.

BLACK HORNET

DCPD158 said:

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LMCane said:

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fullback44 said:

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74OA said:

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PA24 said:

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fullback44 said:

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The US has tons of F16s in storage that will probably never be used again besides for practice drones .. we should give 50-100 of them armed to the teeth to Ukraine .. better than letting them rot in storage

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getting each one airworthy for battle would take time and a lot of money. If you going to do it right, send them the F16 that are still in service and send these mothball ones for spare parts.

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F-16s are just as vulnerable to the very capable and very dense Russian air defenses surrounding and firing into Ukraine as are current UAF fighters. There's very little value added. A more effective option is to give Ukraine more advanced western SAM systems, like Patriot, on a faster timeline. That would have the far more immediate benefit of both holding out Russian warplanes and intercepting the long-range TBMs and cruise missiles being lobbed at Ukraine from inside Russia.

F-16s?
or
SAMs?

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Isn't the Patriot still one of our main missile defense systems ? I don't see us giving up to many of those unless we have plenty to spare ? I have no idea on this ?

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Yes Patriots are still part of the inventory and NASAMs are used to defend the National Military District

three batteries of Iron Dome have been ordered by the US military with two operational now. there is also THAADS for high altitude missile defense.

Davids Sling is likely going to be brought back to USA as part of the Missile Defense Agency procurement as the USA has paid for half of it.

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Weren't there calls a while back to send some of the old Hawk systems? We still have those or are they gone?

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HAWKS were originally designed in the 60s and supposedly the US or Ukraine has asked Israel to send some of their mothballed systems to Ukraine

Israel has refused mostly on grounds that they won't work well on the battlefield, and obviously Israel has been loathe to equip the Ukes with weaponry because then there could be a war against Russia in Syria between Russian and Israeli fighter pilots

It's looking like F-16s (and other modern NATO jets) should be on there way to Ukraine soon.. they are prepping airfields now. We have hundreds of them mouthballed and in storage .. give them a few hundred before they rot !

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-improving-airfields-anticipating-modern-jets

Today's SITREP.

Another example of sanctions' tightening grip.

OPTICS

Drone attack on Iranian weapons factory was phenomenal success - sources https://t.co/R4G0fGR8iQ

— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) January 29, 2023

Quote:

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PMC Wagner mercenaries have captured Blahodatne

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/29-january-pmc-wagner-mercenaries-have-captured-blahodatne

This is a bit West of Soledar.

📷Several officers of Ukrainian 30th Mechanized Brigade recently returned from the Western Europe, where they attended special education and training curses for commanders according to NATO standard. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/GXjJSd4FPT

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) January 29, 2023

Quote:

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Casualties as Russian missile hit a residential building in Kharkiv

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/29-january-casualties-as-russian-missile-hit-a-residential

Really good video, and I'm only in it a little bit. As he says, "The Bear still has claws".

His discussion of Russian skill at information warfare is very intriguing.

Waffledynamics said:

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Really good video, and I'm only in it a little bit. As he says, "The Bear still has claws".

His discussion of Russian skill at information warfare is very intriguing.

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Aye. I make sure to temper myself with reality often about this war. At the end of the day, Russia is still an extremely large industrialized nation of millions. They will always be able to produce basic means of warfare to some extent. Playing whack a mole with literal cannon fodder is not going to win this war for the Ukes. Just my opinion of course but I am convinced an actual successful invasion of Crimea by the Ukes will be needed to even come close to hinting at an end to this thing. And I think most of us regulars here know the extreme amount of work and fighting that will have to occur before even that idea becomes feasible.

The way I liken it in my head is two punch drunk fighters going into the fourth round. Everything else being equal the larger one with more mass and endurance will carry the day. I do think a spring offensive is coming but I doubt it will be war ending. I don't see Russia backing down at the conference table anymore. They have invested too much into this by now. Straight unconditional Victory on the battlefield or Putin dying is the only feasible way out of this I see now.

I also know the Ukes are taking far more casualties of their own than most here in the States realize. This is a true war of attrition of small unit action and artillery duels. Something we were largely supposed to have moved on from as advanced nations…

that's the situation the west faces. Half-hearted support may actually lead to Ukraine falling, and all that investment lost.

It's kind of like a football coach who has decided the only way he wants to win the game is by 1 point. Well, you really risk losing in that case.

Lots of good info here. Not much about action, but about sharpening swords.

Some info about the Russian forces in the Vuhledar assault.

2/2

- At least one brigade and separate units from the 29th army
- Battalion-sized assault unit from the "Kaskad" unit
- Smaller detachments from Donetsk forces
- Separate special forces groups from the GRU
- Reserves from multiple units.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 29, 2023

Ukrainian defenders destroyed a bridge over the Molochna River near Melitopol'. It was on the supply route for Russian invasion forces in Zaporizhzhya region.

Local partisans of the National Resistance report an enemy convoy was on the bridge when it was struck. pic.twitter.com/rFaeCyOH3D

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) January 29, 2023

This is basically Russia's Monte Casino. Pyrrhic victory at best.

If those are marshes south of Kamianske, that may be a tall order for either to move forward.

Don't forget they also got worn down in Afghanistan

Pumpkinhead said:

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At the peak of the Vietnam War, we had 550,000 people over there and bombed the hell out that country of a population about same size as Ukraine.

We still eventually got worn down and lost.

Never underestimate a determined foe trying to repel an invader. This Ukraine War may very well last several years like Vietnam did. Whether or not Russia ends up as the occupier of any additional land at the very end of this, who knows, but I am skeptical they will ever 'defeat' the Ukes any more than we ever defeated the NVA in Nam.

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I think the NATO countries are fixing to step up the war machine equipment needed to take the Russians out …. As soon as the US and NATO people think Russia has enough new equipment and munitions stockpiled the new weopons will come in to take them out .. I would bet we are fixing to give the Ukraine the farther shooting missiles to take out ammunition depots that the HIMARS won't reach .. they are just letting them get built up.. once you take those ammo depots out their troups will have to once again retreat .. it all seems to be part of the plan .. then Ukraine will use all the new tanks, planes, and other equipment to get them out … just my 2 cents

Pumpkinhead said:

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At the peak of the Vietnam War, we had 550,000 people over there and bombed the hell out that country of a population about same size as Ukraine.

We still eventually got worn down and lost.

Never underestimate a determined foe trying to repel an invader. This Ukraine War may very well last several years like Vietnam did. Whether or not Russia ends up as the occupier of any additional land at the very end of this, who knows, but I am skeptical they will ever 'defeat' the Ukes any more than we ever defeated the NVA in Nam.

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Big difference, Nam was half way around the world from us.

Russia ain't leaving, it can't, and neither is NATO.

Only a matter of time before NATO with boots on the ground. 2023 should be interesting.

PA24 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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At the peak of the Vietnam War, we had 550,000 people over there and bombed the hell out that country of a population about same size as Ukraine.

We still eventually got worn down and lost.

Never underestimate a determined foe trying to repel an invader. This Ukraine War may very well last several years like Vietnam did. Whether or not Russia ends up as the occupier of any additional land at the very end of this, who knows, but I am skeptical they will ever 'defeat' the Ukes any more than we ever defeated the NVA in Nam.

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Big difference, Nam was half way around the world from us.

Russia ain't leaving, it can't, and neither is NATO.

Only a matter of time before NATO with boots on the ground. 2023 should be interesting.

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Highly doubtful. Ukraine is not close to running out of troops, and actual NATO troops on the ground would be extremely different. That said, Russia really does deserve to get its ass kicked by NATO A-Team. In a perfect world...



What I suspect is more likely is that Ukraine will continue to be equipped with better and better weapons and tactics. There will be a counter to Wagner's successful tactics. There will be offensives. It will take a while to grind down the Bear. The war becomes untenable for Russia sooner than Ukraine, I think.

All roads lead to Crimea, good "big picture" read on where all this may be heading in 2023 .. basically talks about the tactical approaches to taking back Crimea and what will be needed.
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/all-roads-lead-to-crimea

Pumpkinhead said:

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At the peak of the Vietnam War, we had 550,000 people over there and bombed the hell out that country of a population about same size as Ukraine.

We still eventually got worn down and lost.

Never underestimate a determined foe trying to repel an invader. This Ukraine War may very well last several years like Vietnam did. Whether or not Russia ends up as the occupier of any additional land at the very end of this, who knows, but I am skeptical they will ever 'defeat' the Ukes any more than we ever defeated the NVA in Nam.

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I think though that Europe won't let the war last that long.

It's in their best interest economically, politically, and morally too for what it's worth, to end the war as soon as possible.

Which is why I think they shifted gears and are sending hundreds of main battle tanks to Ukraine, along with all their artillery. France has just started talks on sending Mirage jets.

The Ukes have proven they can flank or break through Russia's defenses and rapidly recapture territory. Which should be much easier if Leopards, Challengers, and Bradleys are leading the charge.

The more territory they take back, the more likely Russia will warm up to peace talks and return territory.

If anything is clear over the last year, Russia is no longer the world power many thought they were over the last 70 years.

Nukes of course make them dangerous, but this war is as big an embarrassment for a country as any since the establishment of the 3rd Reich.

Excellent read. ISW calls out the West and the consequences of their piecemeal and delayed weapon deliveries. This war won't end until Ukraine can threaten Crimea and the West isn't committed to timely deliveries of the required tools to let this happen. Long range precision missiles like ATACMS and GLSDB are still a pipe dream for example.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 29, 2023

Quote:

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The West will need to avoid drawing the erroneous conclusion that future Ukrainian counter-offensives are impossible based on a timeline imposed by the West's own delays in providing necessary material and meteorological conditions. Current and planned Russian offensives will very likely culminate without achieving operationally decisive gains and in ways that could very well create propitious conditions for Ukrainian counter-offensives, especially once Ukraine has ingested the incoming Western tanks. ISW continues to assess that Ukraine can liberate critical terrain with the current and promised levels of Western support and that it is a matter of vital national interest for the United States and its Western partners that Ukraine do so.

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benchmark said:

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Excellent read. ISW calls out the West and the consequences of their piecemeal and delayed weapon deliveries. This war won't end until Ukraine can threaten Crimea and the West isn't committed to timely deliveries of the required tools to let this happen. Long range precision missiles like ATACMS and GLSDB are still a pipe dream for example.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 29, 2023

Quote:

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The West will need to avoid drawing the erroneous conclusion that future Ukrainian counter-offensives are impossible based on a timeline imposed by the West's own delays in providing necessary material and meteorological conditions. Current and planned Russian offensives will very likely culminate without achieving operationally decisive gains and in ways that could very well create propitious conditions for Ukrainian counter-offensives, especially once Ukraine has ingested the incoming Western tanks. ISW continues to assess that Ukraine can liberate critical terrain with the current and promised levels of Western support and that it is a matter of vital national interest for the United States and its Western partners that Ukraine do so.

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At some point you would think the countries giving aid and military support would ramp up the deliveries to end this thing. It would be best for all parties involved including Russia.

CondensedFogAggie said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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At the peak of the Vietnam War, we had 550,000 people over there and bombed the hell out that country of a population about same size as Ukraine.

We still eventually got worn down and lost.

Never underestimate a determined foe trying to repel an invader. This Ukraine War may very well last several years like Vietnam did. Whether or not Russia ends up as the occupier of any additional land at the very end of this, who knows, but I am skeptical they will ever 'defeat' the Ukes any more than we ever defeated the NVA in Nam.

---

I think though that Europe won't let the war last that long.

It's in their best interest economically, politically, and morally too for what it's worth, to end the war as soon as possible.

Which is why I think they shifted gears and are sending hundreds of main battle tanks to Ukraine, along with all their artillery. France has just started talks on sending Mirage jets.

The Ukes have proven they can flank or break through Russia's defenses and rapidly recapture territory. Which should be much easier if Leopards, Challengers, and Bradleys are leading the charge.

The more territory they take back, the more likely Russia will warm up to peace talks and return territory.

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Which would be a huge mistake. Leave no doubt.

I still believe this doesn't end until the Russian economy tanks badly enough that Putin falls out a window or otherwise is driven out of power. Even if Putin dies right now, all the guys around him who have enough clout to take over are going to keep going down the same path. It is going to take an outsider taking over with the people behind them with the mission to save the economy that will be able to change course and reconcile with the west. First step in that reconciliation is going to have to be get out of ALL of Ukraine, then the rest of the deal can be worked out.