Putin remains a master strategist. $150B

TH36 said:

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Got this in the mail this morning. One of you had posted up about the pilots dropping off backpacks in Germany I believe it was for the displaced children. Think it's pretty cool they took the time to send thank you notes.

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I had posted about them.

That is my Co-workers.

BP4K has come a very long way over the last year-ish.

74OA said:

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Putin remains a master strategist. $150B

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Too bad this won't hurt him directly.

If he doesn't care about the lives of his people he certainly doesn't care about their livelihoods, but one day he will kneel before God; I just pray its sooner than later.

Another endless war unless Ukraine can retake the coast and threaten Crimea. The road to peace runs through Crimea. ATACMS ... give it to them.

Maginot Line? UKR Gen Stf too smart for linear thinking. Long-range precision weapons (ATACMs, GLSDB, Gray Eagle, F16) key to liberating Crimea, the decisive terrain. Attack the two land LOC's linking Crimea to the mainland, then make Crimea untenable by striking RF bases there. https://t.co/Arw3pXayZe

— Ben Hodges (@general_ben) January 21, 2023

Interestingly, Binkov's Battlegrounds discusses how much of a gamechanger a charge towards the Sea of Azov would be in his latest video on Ukraine:



I think I may have posted this already, but I wonder if Ukraine's goal would be to gain control of that high ground.

GLSDB. 100 mile range, 250 lb warhead. Basically a rocket launched GBU-39. It isn't near the range of an ATACMS, but it is much longer than what they have and would push Russian depots back even further and stretch their logistics. They also cost a lot less, so a lot more could be used.

Today's SITREP.

fullback44 said:

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lb3 said:

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lotoarmy said:

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I am 100% in support of the Ukes, but no amount of equipment is going help if they don't have enough people to use it.

How are they going to be able to keep boots on the ground?

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They had a 2022 population 50% larger than Texas. They can conscript millions and given that their nation's survival is at stake, they won't have near the risk of a revolt from the families of the conscripted.

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Yeah based on that graph they have 8 -9 million or somewhere near that fighting age men.. that would include men in the lower 50s who have been fighting

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Back in March 2022 Yuri Butusov estimated that Ukraine could mobilize at least 700,000 military aged men that were in uniform or veterans that had been in uniform within the past 8 years.

Russia can conscript a lot more soldiers but they do not have the means to train them. The fractional exchange ratio becomes more important the longer that the war drags on. In a war of attrition where both sides are feeding troops into the fight at a sustained rate there will come a point when one side collapses because their manpower pipeline runs dry.

That pipeline can collapse because there is a lack of men or because of a bottleneck that prevents conscripts from getting into the fight (e.g. lack of equipment or transportation). A numerically smaller fighting force can win in a war of attrition against a larger force if they kill them at a high enough exchange ratio.

Ukraine is getting both the weapons and the training to continue to kill Russians faster than the Russians kill Ukrainians but the denominator of the fraction matters a lot.

AGS-R-TUFF said:

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fullback44 said:

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deddog said:

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GAC06 said:

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Bradleys can fire TOW, and potentially the Strykers too

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DOH, that's probably what the TOWs are for.
Always loved the TOW launcher on the Bradley's , very compact and aesthetically pleasing.

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These weapon systems with the TOW are exactly what we needed to give them .. supposedly with have close to a million rounds or some crazy number of TOW missiles, way more rounds than Russian tanks and equipment in Ukraine .. this should have been the plan from the get go .. take out all their equipment with the TOW missiles

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I was reading that the TOW 2 has thermal optics…not sure if these munitions are that version or have that capability. But this does open up a new can of whoopass on the Orcs. I'm thinking tactical (Humvee) hit and runs at night on the periphery, light up armor and supply truck targets, regroup/reload, rinse and repeat.

Of course implementation and my imagination may be way off.

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Yes, TOW has thermal optics, and has at least since before Desert Storm. The big thing is what generation thermal optics are the ones being sent to Ukraine, and at what distance can they identify targets? Target ID is going to be especially difficult since that tanks and many other armored vehicles in use by both sides look very similar, if not the same, and painted white Z markings don't show up on thermals. (Fun fact: those down angled slat panels you see on the sides of U.S. Abrams and Bradleys are put there because it shows up differently from the rest of the hull/turret in thermals, making ID easier.)

The TOW-IIB that was in use when I was a Bradley platoon leader in the late 90s had a book range of 3,750m. However, at that distance, the thermals would just show a hot blob for vehicles. You needed to be a lot closer to tell what you were actually looking at. Now, if you've done proper battespace deconfliction and you're sure there are no friendlies out there, you can light them up, but you have to be careful.

There was a video they showed us pretty much every time we did Combat Vehicle Identification (CVI) training. Apaches in Desert Storm, looking at two tracked vehicles through thermals. They call in their location, and the bearing and distance to the vehicles. Op center says there are no friendlies at that location, weapons free. Apaches blast them, only to find out they were Friendly.

Back in DS, not everything was equipped with GPS. The Apaches were running on inertial navigation, and they didn't realize that a cross wind had pushed them a couple of km to the east of where they thought they were, and into a different unit's sector.

Pantsir S1 (SA-22) systems deployed on Moscow rooftops?

Now, if real, this is quite strange, since the Ukrainians don't have anything that can strike Moscow, so what are they defending against?

Also, that's not a small system. I'd really be interesting in seeing how they got them up there. (Assuming they're real, and not some sort of mock-up).

Smeghead4761 said:

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Pantsir S1 (SA-22) systems deployed on Moscow rooftops?

Now, if real, this is quite strange, since the Ukrainians don't have anything that can strike Moscow, so what are they defending against?

Also, that's not a small system. I'd really be interesting in seeing how they got them up there. (Assuming they're real, and not some sort of mock-up).

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Video shows cranes from what I saw images of. Supposedly, its more of a psychological domestic propaganda use from what I recollect I read somewhere.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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GLSDB. 100 mile range, 250 lb warhead. Basically a rocket launched GBU-39. It isn't near the range of an ATACMS, but it is much longer than what they have and would push Russian depots back even further and stretch their logistics. They also cost a lot less, so a lot more could be used.

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Oh absolutely - and both are game changers. GLSDB's would allow ATACMs to focus on high value targets beyond 100 miles or needing a larger warhead ... like the Kersh bridge. Both please.

I think that Ukraine may have been pushed back at Kreminna based on the most recent shelling reports. It's also possible that this is Russia hitting the supply route with MLRS, but I don't see why they wouldn't also hit the guys knocking on Kreminna's door too.

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At Lyman direction Russian army shelled Makiyivka, Ploschanka, Chervonopopivka, Kuzmyne and Serebryanske forestry of Luhansk region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/22-january-at-lyman-direction-russian-army-shelled-makiyivka

Thanks Smeg…good info!

"The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. While the costs associated with Ukraine's continued defense of Bakhmut are significant and likely include opportunity costs related to potential Ukrainian counter-offensive operations elsewhere, Ukraine would also have paid a significant price for allowing Russian troops to take Bakhmut easily.

Bakhmut itself is not operationally or strategically significant but had Russian troops taken it relatively rapidly and cheaply they could have hoped to expand operations in ways that could have forced Ukraine to construct hasty defensive positions in less favorable terrain.

One must also not dismiss the seemingly "political" calculus of committing to the defense of Bakhmut lightly. Russian forces occupy more than 100,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory including multiple Ukrainian cities and are inflicting atrocities on Ukrainian civilians in occupied areas. It is not unreasonable for political and military leaders to weigh these factors in determining whether to hold or cede particular population concentrations.

Americans have not had to make such choices since 1865 and should not be quick to scorn considerations that would be very real to them were American cities facing such threats."

"ISW continues to re-evaluate its assessment that the Russian offensive on Bakhmut may be culminating but continues to assess that Ukrainian forces are effectively pinning Russian troops, equipment, and overall operational focus on Bakhmut, thus inhibiting Russia's ability to pursue offensives elsewhere in the theater.

The West has contributed to Ukraine's inability to take advantage of having pinned Russian forces in Bakhmut by slow-rolling or withholding weapons systems and supplies essential for large-scale counteroffensive operations."

ISW

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President Zelensky ordered General Staff to prepare additional military reserves

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/22-january-president-zelensky-ordered-general-staff-to-prepare

Sweden???

https://www-fmv-se.translate.goog/aktuellt--press/aktuella-handelser/fmv-far-bemyndigande-att-forhandla-och-inga-avtal-med-ukraina/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=sv&_x_tr_pto=wapp

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FMV is authorized to negotiate and enter into agreements with Ukraine

The government has decided to give FMV the authority to negotiate and enter into agreements with Ukraine. The decision aims to give FMV the opportunity to support Ukraine within the framework of the authority's activities, which are mainly to procure, develop and deliver materiel and services to the Swedish defence.

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The decision also provides the opportunity for cooperation on support in the construction and development of procurement organization and procurement activities, as well as the exchange of information and experience in the field.

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The cooperation means that Ukraine is given the opportunity to use existing Swedish contract structures and routines as well as connect to ongoing Swedish procurements and existing Swedish orders.

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Collaboration around Archer

The government has also decided to give assignments to the Swedish Armed Forces to make preparations to enable unmounted pieces of the Archer artillery system, with peripheral equipment and associated ammunition, to be prepared and donated to Ukraine. The armed forces must report the conditions for how this is to be done by March 3, 2023 at the latest. In this work, the Swedish Armed Forces must cooperate with FMV.

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Gripen's?
Patriots?
IFV's?
Archers

Or leopards

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stridsvagn_122

Germany's foreign minister says Berlin won't block transfer of Leo's by Poland. TANKS

Pretty sure that's a different company.

74OA said:

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Germany's foreign minister says Berlin won't block transfer of Leo's by Poland. TANKS

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Poland said they would do it anyway. Lead follow or get out of the way.

UPDATES

AgLA06 said:

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Pretty sure that's a different company.

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It is. Leopards are made by Kraus Maffei Wegmann in Munich.

So next step, we give $$$$$ to Poland, to buy more Leopards from Germany and pass them off to the Ukes?
And then more $$$$ to Germany to replace their stocks?

Seriously though, obviously the Leopard is superior to anything currently in that theater. Is there any significant advantage? Its not like there have been many tank-to-tank battles.
Better survivability for offense operations against areas still in Russian control?

It will be an amazing morale booster for sure.

AgLA06 said:

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Pretty sure that's a different company.

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Where does it mention the company? Maybe I'm missing it

deddog said:

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So next step, we give $$$$$ to Poland, to buy more Leopards from Germany and pass them off to the Ukes?
And then more $$$$ to Germany to replace their stocks?

Seriously though, obviously the Leopard is superior to anything currently in that theater. Is there any significant advantage? Its not like there have been many tank-to-tank battles.
Better survivability for offense operations against areas still in Russian control?

It will be an amazing morale booster for sure.

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Hopefully we can get Poland to send leopards on a large scale to be replaced with Abrams or Korean tanks. If not on a large scale, then hopefully numerous countries send smaller numbers of leopards.

Or we could just send several hundred Abrams. We have the tanks, they can learn to operate and support them with nearby logistical support.

One little-discussed reason for Putin's obsession with conquering Ukraine is his desperate need to acquire more ethnic Russians to keep Russia Russian. The 2020 Russian census showed that the percentage of ethnic Russians had declined from 77.78 percent to 71.7 percent since 2010

So, who else used the excuse of bringing more of their ethnic brethren into the homeland as an excuse for annexing neighboring countries, or portions of them? I can't quite remember....

Wouldn't this risk Poland's ability to get more stuff?

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We will apply to Germany for permission to send Leopards to Ukraine, but even if there is no such consent, we will hand over the tanks as part of the "small coalition" - said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/23-january-we-will-apply-to-germany-for-permission-to-send

Waffledynamics said:

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Wouldn't this risk Poland's ability to get more stuff?

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We will apply to Germany for permission to send Leopards to Ukraine, but even if there is no such consent, we will hand over the tanks as part of the "small coalition" - said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/23-january-we-will-apply-to-germany-for-permission-to-send

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Not as badly as you might think: Poland is going to retire its leopard fleet for a combination of later model Abrams and a Korean designed tank they will largely produce locally. As for other weapons systems, I'm sure between two NATO nations differences could be worked out.

Waffledynamics said:

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Wouldn't this risk Poland's ability to get more stuff

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Honey badgers don't care.

deddog said:

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Seriously though, obviously the Leopard is superior to anything currently in that theater. Is there any significant advantage? Its not like there have been many tank-to-tank battles.
Better survivability for offense operations against areas still in Russian control?

It will be an amazing morale booster for sure.

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Anyone know the answer to this question along with the number of tanks committed?

SamjamAg said:

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deddog said:

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Seriously though, obviously the Leopard is superior to anything currently in that theater. Is there any significant advantage? Its not like there have been many tank-to-tank battles.
Better survivability for offense operations against areas still in Russian control?

It will be an amazing morale booster for sure.

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Anyone know the answer to this question along with the number of tanks committed?

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Don't know how many are actually committed but NATO member countries (excluding Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, and Turkey) have between 1500-2000 Leopard 2 variants per Wiki in inventory.

Waffledynamics said:

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Wouldn't this risk Poland's ability to get more stuff?

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We will apply to Germany for permission to send Leopards to Ukraine, but even if there is no such consent, we will hand over the tanks as part of the "small coalition" - said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/23-january-we-will-apply-to-germany-for-permission-to-send

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Poland already has a contract with South Korea for 90 of their tanks to be shipped in..

GDYNIA, Poland (AP) Polish President Andrzej Duda and the country's defense minister on Tuesday took delivery of a first shipment of tanks and howitzers from South Korea, hailing the swift implementation of a deal signed in the summer in the face of the war in neighboring Ukraine.

Duda and Mariusz Blaszczak were in the Polish Navy port of Gdynia, on the Baltic coast, to mark the arrival by sea of the first 10 Black Panther K2 tanks, along with 24 Thunder K9 howitzers, from a $5.8 billion deal with Seoul.