Interesting change. Sounds like internal politicking.

Hm. Shoigu announced the appointment of Gerassimov as the Joint Armed Forces Chief of Staff (i.e. in charge of the war), and demoted Surovikin. Among other things, this would lead to even further face-offs with Prigozhin who's been attacking Gerassimov.

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) January 11, 2023

Not good news

PMC Wagner inside the ancient Salt mines in Soledar, which is a treasure in and of itself - an abundance of natural mineral salt and a large cache of ammunition all left by the AFU. pic.twitter.com/jxRSPbqDBO

— Blackrussian (@Blackrussiantv) January 11, 2023

Unless they are taking it back in short order, why don't they destroy ammunition/supplies/equipment when they are forced to abandon a position?

The most likely tanks that Britain will supply to Ukraine are Challenger-2s

It would be a historic delivery of modern heavy battle tanks and a striking commitment from Britain, as its 227 strong tank fleet is relatively small for a military of its strength

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) January 11, 2023

Ukraine will likely wait until Russia loads the mines full of people and Ammo then collapse the entrance.

Or that's just what I would do if I had command of aircraft and heavy artillery.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Unless they are taking it back in short order, why don't they destroy ammunition/supplies/equipment when they are forced to abandon a position?

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All they showed was a truck worth of small arms ammo from what I saw. I can't speak for them, but my guess is they waited to the very last minute and had already moved the bigger stuff. What was left was what they had committed to the rear guard to buy time.

https://t.me/Donbas_Operativniy/22667

Lotta fighting going on in the background audio.

Translation: "We are near Kreminna, there are fierce battles going on."

Waffledynamics said:

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Edit: Jesus ****ing Christ the intercepted call at 6:16 above is disgusting. One of the two parties in the call talks about how they raped and killed many civilians.

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I understand that this happens all over the world in almost every war but I hope the Ukes will be able to hold war crime tribunals some day.

Waffledynamics said:

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Quote:

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Russian army shelled Kherson with incendiary ammunition

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-january-russian-army-shelled-kherson-with-incendiary-ammunition

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So what is Russia planning on doing with all of the towns and cities that they destroyed? They would have to totally rebuild most of them in the east and parts of the south since they shelled them to dust.

This is Poland and others putting public pressure on Berlin to approve, but Leopards aren't going anywhere until it does. Defense News: "Berlin must approve all weapon transfers of German-made weaponry even long after giving the equipment to partners. As of Jan. 9, the German government had yet to receive a Leopard 2 transfer request from Poland, spokesman Steffen Hebestreit told journalists in Berlin."

TANKS

74OA said:

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This is Poland and others putting public pressure on Berlin to approve, but Leopards aren't going anywhere until it does. TANKS

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I just don't get it.

Sure seems like they could be providing a lot of other options that could have a much bigger impact. I get they're better than soviet armor, but enough to matter? Seems like another battalion of armored vehicles and strykers would be a better value to the Ukes.

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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This is Poland and others putting public pressure on Berlin to approve, but Leopards aren't going anywhere until it does. TANKS

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I just don't get it.

Sure seems like they could be providing a lot of other options that could have a much bigger impact. I get they're better than soviet armor, but enough to matter? Seems like another battalion of armored vehicles and strykers would be a better value to the Ukes.

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It's the arms transfer wedge being pounded further under the political door. Regardless of Leopard's immediate combat utility, approval moves the line for what is acceptable to donate without being supposedly "escalatory".

I agree Kiev needs a lot of tanks it is already familiar with right now not a handful of western models it doesn't know how to operate or maintain. Give the Leopards to Poland in return for it donating its roughly 200 remaining PT-91s (modernized T-72s) which could go into Ukrainian service almost immediately and participate in a winter offensive. The EU could then perhaps provide western tanks in mid-year to continue the momentum.

74OA said:

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AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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This is Poland and others putting public pressure on Berlin to approve, but Leopards aren't going anywhere until it does. TANKS

---

I just don't get it.

Sure seems like they could be providing a lot of other options that could have a much bigger impact. I get they're better than soviet armor, but enough to matter? Seems like another battalion of armored vehicles and strykers would be a better value to the Ukes.

---

It's the arms transfer wedge being pounded further under the political door. Regardless of Leopard's immediate combat utility, approval moves the line for what is acceptable to donate without being supposedly "escalatory".

I agree Kiev needs a lot of tanks it is already familiar with right now not a handful of western models it doesn't know how to operate or maintain. Give the Leopards to Poland in return for it donating its roughly 200 PT-91s (modernized T-72s) which could go into Ukrainian service almost immediately and participate in a winter offensive. The EU could then perhaps provide western tanks in mid-year to continue the momentum.

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I agree that would be a better route. The problem is, how long would it take to backfill Poland with modern tanks? Because if I'm Poland, I'm not giving up anything that isn't replaced one for one (one heads over the border as one land on a plane). Most of us are pulling hard for Ukraine, but we don't have a war being fought next door like Poland does.

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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This is Poland and others putting public pressure on Berlin to approve, but Leopards aren't going anywhere until it does. TANKS

---

I just don't get it.

Sure seems like they could be providing a lot of other options that could have a much bigger impact. I get they're better than soviet armor, but enough to matter? Seems like another battalion of armored vehicles and strykers would be a better value to the Ukes.

---

It's the arms transfer wedge being pounded further under the political door. Regardless of Leopard's immediate combat utility, approval moves the line for what is acceptable to donate without being supposedly "escalatory".

I agree Kiev needs a lot of tanks it is already familiar with right now not a handful of western models it doesn't know how to operate or maintain. Give the Leopards to Poland in return for it donating its roughly 200 PT-91s (modernized T-72s) which could go into Ukrainian service almost immediately and participate in a winter offensive. The EU could then perhaps provide western tanks in mid-year to continue the momentum.

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I agree that would be a better route. The problem is, how long would it take to backfill Poland with modern tanks? Because if I'm Poland, I'm not giving up anything that isn't replaced one for one (one heads over the border as one land on a plane). Most of us are pulling hard for Ukraine, but we don't have a war being fought next door like Poland does.

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Well, Poland has already donated several hundred T-72s with token backfill. That's because Warsaw fully appreciates the value to Poland's security from Ukraine decimating Russia's military, so I imagine a handshake for Leo backfill would promptly release the remaining PT-91s, too. Germany is far more comfortable with aiding Ukraine indirectly (e.g. its armor Ringtausch) and it and the rest of Europe have roughly 2000 Leo's to draw from, many sitting in storage.

Satellite image of a newly established Russian military base in Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

More information here:https://t.co/DvCT1FQ5Y4 pic.twitter.com/87voEn0wl3

— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) January 11, 2023

That's a nice base they got there. It'd be a shame if something happened to it.

Waffledynamics said:

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Unsurprisingly, the Wagner mercenary on the right is dressed in Ukrainian uniform (helmet, balaclava, jacket).
Wagners are know to use Ukrainian uniforms in order to trick the defenders. #UkraineRussiaWar https://t.co/HU9z1V7Qyb pic.twitter.com/fD8HNxJBKG

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) January 10, 2023

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There is merit to this. There is a new disturbing video of a POV view of a Russian advancing on a Uke fighting position and essentially capturing them and then shooting them point blank. The thing that has me thinking though is that the Ukes are clearly confused and keep shouting "Same side" even as they are gunned down. They had just been hit by a grenade though I initially thought and were dazed but others were saying it was uniform deception which makes more and more sense to me as these come to light. I have now convinced myself these unfortunate Ukes were looking at someone in a Uke uniform who was actually a Russian that was trying to take their weapons before he lit them up.

I mean, why not? Right? Russian war fighting units clearly have zero morals or cares for "civilized" fighting or adhering to any set of warfare rules or regulations. Even if they are a signee of the Geneva convention. It's a special military operation after all. Not a war!

Sickening.

Also, lack of discipline once again explains why in the hell someone recorded this and then uploaded it. Russians are so damned stupid. That video I mentioned is gaining steam and will only lead to more pissed off Ukes like that castration and murder one a few months back.

Could be a new surge of missile attacks.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/01/sudden-surge-in-russian-navy-ships-and-submarines-in-black-sea/

Soledar, footage from Russian side at the western end of Vulytsya Chaplina.
Location: 48.698374,38.046183 pic.twitter.com/sVy4eSumBc

— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@aldin_aba) January 11, 2023

Update from Soledar by Magyar - not much, but at least, no bad news today. pic.twitter.com/BWduSiB6ej

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 11, 2023

Eliminatus said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Unsurprisingly, the Wagner mercenary on the right is dressed in Ukrainian uniform (helmet, balaclava, jacket).
Wagners are know to use Ukrainian uniforms in order to trick the defenders. #UkraineRussiaWar https://t.co/HU9z1V7Qyb pic.twitter.com/fD8HNxJBKG

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) January 10, 2023

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There is merit to this. There is a new disturbing video of a POV view of a Russian advancing on a Uke fighting position and essentially capturing them and then shooting them point blank. The thing that has me thinking though is that the Ukes are clearly confused and keep shouting "Same side" even as they are gunned down. They had just been hit by a grenade though I initially thought and were dazed but others were saying it was uniform deception which makes more and more sense to me as these come to light. I have now convinced myself these unfortunate Ukes were looking at someone in a Uke uniform who was actually a Russian that was trying to take their weapons before he lit them up.

I mean, why not? Right? Russian war fighting units clearly have zero morals or cares for "civilized" fighting or adhering to any set of warfare rules or regulations. Even if they are a signee of the Geneva convention. It's a special military operation after all. Not a war!

Sickening.

Also, lack of discipline once again explains why in the hell someone recorded this and then uploaded it. Russians are so damned stupid. That video I mentioned is gaining steam and will only lead to more pissed off Ukes like that castration and murder one a few months back.

---

Lack of discipline on both sides, sadly for the ukes. There is also a pic of about 30-50 pows taken in this raid, which also means any weapons and ammo were also taken. This is likely the most successful attack to date but now ukes will begin to use challenge & PW.

As for tanks, why are they just now talking about this. Hopefully I am wrong and a good number of Ukes have already been training on western weapon systems not yet supplied or even considered in a proactive manner, especially since they have been talking about a long war or running out of soviet type ammo for at least 9 months now. This said With Ukes back to manufacturing 152mm ammo, I also think the T72s are a better fit and I don't trust the germans. I think the IFVAFVs Bradley or any other Euro type might be even better. Ukes have been using INF w Armor already and much better than the Orcs. There has also been multiple vids of the 30MM destroying Orc tanks no problem. I expect our 25MM would do the same but I am not at all familiar with the Bradley or its gun(s), other than some carry 2 TOWs.

Given the success at Soledar by orcs, putins resolve, and continued build up In Belarus I now think they may actually reinvade that northern border trying to weaken the east with expected resource transfers. It would be nice to hear a big announcement real or not that a few more HIMARS shipped and deployed up there. Than change the sign to welcome to Ukraine, please be patient and our HIMARS will check you in.

JFABNRGR said:

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Eliminatus said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Unsurprisingly, the Wagner mercenary on the right is dressed in Ukrainian uniform (helmet, balaclava, jacket).
Wagners are know to use Ukrainian uniforms in order to trick the defenders. #UkraineRussiaWar https://t.co/HU9z1V7Qyb pic.twitter.com/fD8HNxJBKG

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) January 10, 2023

---

There is merit to this. There is a new disturbing video of a POV view of a Russian advancing on a Uke fighting position and essentially capturing them and then shooting them point blank. The thing that has me thinking though is that the Ukes are clearly confused and keep shouting "Same side" even as they are gunned down. They had just been hit by a grenade though I initially thought and were dazed but others were saying it was uniform deception which makes more and more sense to me as these come to light. I have now convinced myself these unfortunate Ukes were looking at someone in a Uke uniform who was actually a Russian that was trying to take their weapons before he lit them up.

I mean, why not? Right? Russian war fighting units clearly have zero morals or cares for "civilized" fighting or adhering to any set of warfare rules or regulations. Even if they are a signee of the Geneva convention. It's a special military operation after all. Not a war!

Sickening.

Also, lack of discipline once again explains why in the hell someone recorded this and then uploaded it. Russians are so damned stupid. That video I mentioned is gaining steam and will only lead to more pissed off Ukes like that castration and murder one a few months back.

---

Lack of discipline on both sides, sadly for the ukes. There is also a pic of about 30-50 pows taken in this raid, which also means any weapons and ammo were also taken. This is likely the most successful attack to date but now ukes will begin to use challenge & PW.

As for tanks, why are they just now talking about this. Hopefully I am wrong and a good number of Ukes have already been training on western weapon systems not yet supplied or even considered in a proactive manner, especially since they have been talking about a long war or running out of soviet type ammo for at least 9 months now. This said With Ukes back to manufacturing 152mm ammo, I also think the T72s are a better fit and I don't trust the germans. I think the IFVAFVs Bradley or any other Euro type might be even better. Ukes have been using INF w Armor already and much better than the Orcs. There has also been multiple vids of the 30MM destroying Orc tanks no problem. I expect our 25MM would do the same but I am not at all familiar with the Bradley or its gun(s), other than some carry 2 TOWs.

Given the success at Soledar by orcs, putins resolve, and continued build up In Belarus I now think they may actually reinvade that northern border trying to weaken the east with expected resource transfers. It would be nice to hear a big announcement real or not that a few more HIMARS shipped and deployed up there. Than change the sign to welcome to Ukraine, please be patient and our HIMARS will check you in.

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If they even step foot into Ukraine from Belarus, I hope they get absolutely shredded and Lukashenko's opposition obliterates his government.

Video of life for civilians inside Bahktmut (sp). Incredible how these people survive and go on day to day.
Walking the streets and don't flinch as artillery pops off all around. I see the video of the men in the Uke army and think either how old or how young they are. I see some and think they are are as old as me, and I'm old. What if that was my city being shelled like that?

Per Defmon's map, it seems he projects Russia to have pretty much taken Soledar. At least, it appears the Ukes are in retreat.

https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Operational%20Map%20Ukraine/nBT8ffpeGH

CondensedFogAggie said:

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74OA said:

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Well, Poland has already donated several hundred T-72s with token backfill. That's because Warsaw fully appreciates the value to Poland's security from Ukraine decimating Russia's military, so I imagine a handshake for Leo backfill would promptly release the remaining PT-91s, too. Germany is far more comfortable with aiding Ukraine indirectly (e.g. its armor Ringtausch) and it and the rest of Europe have roughly 2000 Leo's to draw from, many sitting in storage.

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Polish hatred for the old Soviet Union is understandable. Some say they are still feeling the generational effects of the Katyn massacre, and of course the whole WW2 invasion thing.

In fact there's this old joke from Poland I just learned

"
A Pole finds a genie who offers to grant three wishes.

For the first wish, the Pole asks the genie to have the Mongols come and attack Warsaw, the capital of Poland. They do, and leave after devastation.

Afterwards, the genie asks the Pole for his second wish. Again, the Pole says he wishes for the Khan to come. The genie grants his wish and devastation is wrought again.

Finally, the genie asks the Pole for his last wish. When the Pole asks for the Khan for a third time, the genie asks why.

The Pole responds: "Because every time the Horde comes here, they have to go through Moscow twice.
"

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The Poles are already purchasing a version of the RoK K2, and have licensed production of same in their own country. According to the video below, delivery schedule is 180 K2 from 2022-25, and 212 K2A1s between 2022-2026. That will be followed by a further 820 K2PLs made in Poland starting in 2026. (Plus over 800 K0PL 155mm SPG starting in 2026). Not sure if they might be trying to accelerate that schedule.



Also, don't forget that the Poles fought their own war against the Soviets in the late stages of the Russian Revolution, from1920-1921.

Quote:

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What if that was my city being shelled like that?

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There are a few of us that would be okay with it if you lived in Austin.

With APFSDS ammunition the 25mm can penetrate some of the side and for sure the rear armor of Soviet era tank, but at ranges where the tank could hit and kill the Bradley with the main gun, so unless you ambush them, it is risky.

Better to stand off and use the TOW, which can outrange accurate fire from the Russian 115 and 125mm gun systems in Soviet era tanks.

Better yet is to use the superior optics of the Bradley and communications to locate enemy forces and vector artillery or tanks or drones into them.

Interesting comment on Wagner vs. regular Russian leadership

The Prigozhin pics in the salt mine in Soledar are totally in line what he has been doing the last weeks. Despite the fact that Russian paratroopers are involved in their grind in Soledar, Prigozhin puts himself front and center. It is only about optics and not substance.#Soledar https://t.co/xeX1vBzgP2

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 11, 2023

Quote:

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Russian deploying helicopters to Zaporizhzhia frontline via Mariupol

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/12-january-russian-deploying-helicopters-to-zaporizhzhia

MouthBQ98 said:

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With APFSDS ammunition the 25mm can penetrate some of the side and for sure the rear armor of Soviet era tank, but at ranges where the tank could hit and kill the Bradley with the main gun, so unless you ambush them, it is risky.

Better to stand off and use the TOW, which can outrange accurate fire from the Russian 115 and 125mm gun systems in Soviet era tanks.

Better yet is to use the superior optics of the Bradley and communications to locate enemy forces and vector artillery or tanks or drones into them.

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Excellent ADD thanks and I agree on the CC aspect for calling fires for IDF support.

Can the TOW fire on the move or need to be stationary?

JFABNRGR said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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With APFSDS ammunition the 25mm can penetrate some of the side and for sure the rear armor of Soviet era tank, but at ranges where the tank could hit and kill the Bradley with the main gun, so unless you ambush them, it is risky.

Better to stand off and use the TOW, which can outrange accurate fire from the Russian 115 and 125mm gun systems in Soviet era tanks.

Better yet is to use the superior optics of the Bradley and communications to locate enemy forces and vector artillery or tanks or drones into them.

---

Excellent ADD thanks and I agree on the CC aspect for calling fires for IDF support.

Can the TOW fire on the move or need to be stationary?

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The TOW is wire guided, so you have to keep the site aimed at the target at least for the first portion of the flight. Theoretically, with a stabilized site, you can do that while moving, but you risk losing the wires if there are trees or obstructions around.