CS78 said:

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It does seem that this war may not be winnable by simply killing Russians.

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on the other hand, the Russkie manpower is not nearly as important as the tanks, artillery pieces, helicopters and SAM batteries.

as long as the Ukrainian forces can keep atritting the Russian equipment and ammunition, it won't matter how many Mobiks carrying AKs are thrown at them

74OA said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Seems they've proven they can do combined arms just fine in Kharkiv.

Glad we're starting training back up. Seems like a half dozen countries are now doing something similar. That's essentially a brigade a month of trained troops ready to take on civilians who don't want to be there.

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Ukraine's regular army is competent, but it has had little chance for proper in-country training of new recruits and new units since the war started.

Other countries are providing infantry training and weapon system training, but the US is the only one that I'm aware of that is providing combined arms training. Much more complex.

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Yah, I guess you're right.

From what I can tell basic training is supposedly happening in Ukraine from there it appears they ship off troops abroad for specialization training that's a month long. From a quick news search it appears to break down like this.

15k troops by EU in Poland and Germany
10k troops in England by Britton
10k troops in Poland and Germany.

Now US will expand to combined arms training. Although, I've read we're already doing something similar for Ukraine officers domestically.

I remember Nordic countries supposedly doing the same. I'm sure they're doing some in Ukraine as well, but it would require taking troops off the line to train them. Although wounded soldiers could be useful here.

A division a month of better trained and armed troops is better than what Russia seems to be able to do with their mobilization.

Soledar still in dire straits. Posted less than an hour ago on the Ukraine MoD's official Telegram:

https://t.me/ministry_of_defense_ua/4546

Quote:

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Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Malyar on the current situation in Soledar:

After an unsuccessful attempt to capture Soledar and retreat, the enemy regrouped, recovered losses, transferred additional assault units, changed tactics and launched a powerful assault.

Currently, the enemy has deployed a large number of assault groups formed from the best reserves of the Wagnerites.

The enemy literally steps on the corpses of his own soldiers, massively uses artillery, volley fire systems and mortars, covering even his own soldiers with fire.

Our defenders courageously defend every meter of their native land.
Fierce battles continue just in these minutes.

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....more huge Russian losses fighting for another locality of only tactical value.

Air Force Experts Discuss Ukraine Air War

I hear the Ukes are using the underground tunnel systems to lure them in and attack from behind. They are playing the long game here.

It'll be interesting to see how Ukraine chooses to break into the heavily fortified Russian defenses in the south.

MANEUVER

Nows the Ukes chance to really hurt Wagner if they finally committed their best troops. Hopefully the Ukes have real reserves.

LMCane said:

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CS78 said:

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It does seem that this war may not be winnable by simply killing Russians.

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on the other hand, the Russkie manpower is not nearly as important as the tanks, artillery pieces, helicopters and SAM batteries.

as long as the Ukrainian forces can keep atritting the Russian equipment and ammunition, it won't matter how many Mobiks carrying AKs are thrown at them

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That's the one thing that is forgotten in some of the videos talking about the Russian strategy of overwhelming numbers being a good strategy in the past. That was in the wars where it was mainly small arms and similar capabilities. Between intelligence and equipment sharing, the force multiplier on the Ukrainian side is significant.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 9 January 2023

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/MFEwqMMnI3

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/mdjvswJrWJ

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) January 9, 2023

More news about Soledar. Still hanging on, but this isn't good. Russia's figured out to attack supply lines.

Ukrainian mil. journalist Yuriy Butusov - update from Soledar. The situation is difficult, Russians are throwing all their forces to reach the supply line behind the city. But, there are forces and equipment, and with the right use, the enemy can be defeated. Translation below. pic.twitter.com/kZgPs86Ehg

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 9, 2023

First video I have seen of UKes clearing trench at night. Observed & coordinated with thermal drone overhead. Prior to raid trench prepped with what looks like a combination of mortars, AGL, possibly even suicide drone. Looks like point man in trench flips his NVGs back n forth.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/107hm53/night_nightmare_of_russian_positions_near_bakhmut/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Poland still has roughly 200 PT-91s (very modernized T-72s). In the near term, I'd rather see the Leopards and Challengers go to Poland in exchange for sending its PT-91s to Ukraine. Kiev needs a lot of tanks it is already familiar with right now not a handful of western models it doesn't know how to operate or maintain. The PT-91s could go into Ukrainian service almost immediately and participate in a winter offensive with the EU providing western tanks in mid-year to continue the momentum.

Today's SITREP.

74OA said:

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Poland still has roughly 200 PT-91s (very modernized T-72s). In the near term, I'd rather see the Leopards and Challengers go to Poland in exchange for sending its PT-91s to Ukraine. Kiev needs a lot of tanks it is already familiar with right now not a handful of western models it doesn't know how to operate or maintain. The PT-91s could go into Ukrainian service almost immediately and participate in a winter offensive with the EU providing western tanks in mid-year to continue the momentum.

Today's SITREP.

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I've thought the same. I imagine parts are probably running short for all tanks at this point. Do they use the same ammo as T72s?

Yes.

I'm pretty sure that all of the Soviet/Russian tanks T-64 and later use the same 125mm main gun. I know at least the T-64, T-72, and T-80 all did when we were doing Threat equipment training back in the 90s. I don't know if they've come up with any major upgrade to the gun that obsoletes older models.

That said, the Soviet 125mm and older 115mm (used on the T-62) I'm pretty sure will kill anything found on the battlefield in Ukraine. Same for the German/NATO 120mm, the Brit 120mm, and I think the NATO L7 105mm (which is the main gun on the upgraded T-55s coming from the Czechs).

Success for armor on the battlefield mainly boils down to be able to see and engage the other guy before he does the same to you. That comes down to sensors and training/experience.

If you're wondering where Ukraine will find the manpower for not just soldiers, but the mechanics and support staff for all these different types of foreign arms and armor, well, the bittersweet reality is that a ton of Ukes are out of jobs.

I thought with a ton of folks fighting or having left the country, there would be a manpower shortage across all sectors, but that's not the case.

Quote:

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A new report from the United Nations International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that 2.4 million Ukrainians have lost their jobs in the eight months since Russia's full-scale invasion began, putting unprecedented pressure on the country's social welfare system.

Thousands of businesses have been destroyed or depleted of employees. Imports and exports have been strangled by repeated attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and the occupation of many of Ukraine's Black Sea ports. At a recent meeting in Berlin, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told Western leaders the conflict has wiped out at least 35% of the country's economy.

...

For many, the transition has come with difficulties. A survey by the International Organization for Migration in July found that 60% of the country's displaced people lost their jobs. The country's unemployment rate has soared to 34%, according to the National Bank of Ukraine a figure, labor experts say, that doesn't capture the whole picture because so many people in Ukraine had undeclared jobs before the invasion.

"We can say that a lot of people lost their jobs. They lost their businesses. Houses," says Nataliia Slaviuk, an economist and assistant professor at the University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. "And also a drop in income of people as far as depreciation of the currency."

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https://www.npr.org/2022/11/01/1132167234/russia-ukraine-war-unemployment-displaced-economy

Their economy has taken a huge hit, to be sure, as they've been forced to fully mobilize out of necessity.

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Explosions were reported in occupied Crimea near Simferopol and Hvardiyske

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/10-january-explosions-were-reported-in-occupied-crimea-near

Is it just me, or are explosions in Crimea becoming more and more commonplace? Did they get a new shipment of cigarettes?

"China now perceives a likelihood that Russia will fail to prevail against Ukraine and emerge from the conflict a “minor power”, much diminished economically and diplomatically on the world stage, according to Chinese officials." https://t.co/fj0O7SVTkk

— Erik Meyersson (@emeyersson) January 10, 2023

Very interesting even if just propaganda.

Edited because I never TexAg from a computer anymore.

Unsurprisingly, the Wagner mercenary on the right is dressed in Ukrainian uniform (helmet, balaclava, jacket).
Wagners are know to use Ukrainian uniforms in order to trick the defenders. #UkraineRussiaWar https://t.co/HU9z1V7Qyb pic.twitter.com/fD8HNxJBKG

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) January 10, 2023

Confirmed. Here you see the repair and modernization of T-72 tanks in Czechia by the company Excalibur Army before shipment to Ukraine.

In total, Czechia already sent 20 out of 90 modernized tanks to Ukraine. The modernization is paid for by the US and The Netherlands. https://t.co/DxKLPOyYcF pic.twitter.com/jiFhxlCi3d

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 10, 2023

The madness of BAKHMUT.

More artillery for Ukraine. ARCHER

Russia using soldiers to soak up artillery. BRUTAL

Perhaps because they've lost that particular duel. FIRES

Russians using 75% fewer artillery strikes

wonder why?

Are the Russkies running out of shells?

LMCane said:

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Russians using 75% fewer artillery strikes

wonder why?

Are the Russkies running out of shells?

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Or their barrels are so inaccurate now that its just pointless to use them at any decent range.

Edit: Jesus ****ing Christ the intercepted call at 6:16 above is disgusting. One of the two parties in the call talks about how they raped and killed many civilians.

More Russian military equipment arrived in Belarus. Here is the photo from Palonka, Baranavychi district. Two trains carry armored personnel carriers, gasoline tankers, & freight cars.
Lukashenka surrendered Belarus to Putin, & made it a launching pad in Russia's war in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/fkqeUf75sl

— Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) January 10, 2023

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Heavy clashes continue in Soledar, - Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-january-heavy-clashes-continue-in-soledar--ukrainian-ministry

Reported as of 3 hours ago. I can't tell if Ukraine is leaving this town or not. Regardless, it seems they intend to inflict a lot of casualties on Russia. I would be surprised if they keep Soledar based on Rob's assessment that Russia has the high ground around the town.

Well well well...

Quote:

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President @AndrzejDuda in Lviv: A company of Leopard tanks for Ukraine will be transferred as part of building an international coalition. Such a decision is already in Poland

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-january-president-andrzejduda-in-lviv-a-company-of-leopard

Quote:

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Russian army shelled Kherson with incendiary ammunition

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-january-russian-army-shelled-kherson-with-incendiary-ammunition