I'll try to do that tonight after work.

AgLA06 said:

---

I'll try to do that tonight after work.

---

As you say, it basically builds on what has been reported before.

LMCane said:

---

AgLA06 said:

---

74OA said:

---

Inside the Iranian drones sold to Russia:

"Of the 52 components Ukrainians removed from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, 40 appear to have been manufactured by 13 different American companies, according to the assessment.

The remaining 12 components were manufactured by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.

A separate probe of Iranian drones downed in Ukraine, conducted by the UK-based investigative firm Conflict Armament Research, found that 82% of the components had been manufactured by companies based in the US."

IT'S A PROBLEM

---

We've discussed this at detail before, no?

I don't have time to read the link. There's nothing the USA or those companies can do if a third party sells basic components of computers or cell phones that are then used to make these things. That reads like they were specifically made for the drone and directly sold to Iran from the manufacturer. If that's the case, arrest them for treason. However, if Iran is cannibalizing Ipads or washing machines for chips and mother boards, that article is a joke.

---

You are just wrong.

There is an embargo on trade with Iran.

No Trade with Iran

OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL IRANIAN TRANSACTIONS REGULATIONS

31 C.F.R PART 560 GUIDANCE ON TRANSSHIPMENTS TO IRAN SUMMARY

Except as otherwise authorized, the Iranian Transactions Regulations, 31 C.F.R. Part 560, broadly prohibit the exportation, directly or indirectly, from the United States, or by a United States person, wherever located, of any goods, technology, or services to Iran or the Government of Iran. The prohibitions include exportation to a person in a third country undertaken with knowledge or reason to know, that such goods, technology, or services are intended specifically for supply, transshipment, or reexportation, directly or indirectly, to Iran or the Government of Iran.

---

No, he's right.

These companies aren't selling to Iran or to anyone they know will resell to Iran unless there's evidence yet to be found. From the article:

" TI is not selling any products into Russia, Belarus or Iran," Texas Instruments said in a statement. " TI complies with applicable laws and regulations in the countries where we operate, and partners with law enforcement organizations as necessary and appropriate. Additionally, we do not support or condone the use of our products in applications they weren't designed for."

I concur with GAC06. This is an ITAR question but you can treat it as analogous to the legal protections afforded to manufacturers of firearms and ammunition that prevent people from suing them for misuse by criminals or thieves.

Of course, there is strong precedent for prosecuting people who knowingly ignore import/export restrictions.

https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/the-stoner-arms-dealers-how-two-american-kids-became-big-time-weapons-traders-176604/

Ulysses90 said:

---

I concur with GAC06. This is an ITAR question but you can treat it as analogous to the legal protections afforded to manufacturers of firearms and ammunition that prevent people from suing them for misuse by criminals or thieves.

Of course, there is strong precedent for prosecuting people who knowingly ignore import/export restrictions.

https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/the-stoner-arms-dealers-how-two-american-kids-became-big-time-weapons-traders-176604/

---

I'm sure we're trying to determine serial/lot numbers to trace the supply chain.

lb3 said:

---

Ulysses90 said:

---

I concur with GAC06. This is an ITAR question but you can treat it as analogous to the legal protections afforded to manufacturers of firearms and ammunition that prevent people from suing them for misuse by criminals or thieves.

Of course, there is strong precedent for prosecuting people who knowingly ignore import/export restrictions.

https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/the-stoner-arms-dealers-how-two-american-kids-became-big-time-weapons-traders-176604/

---

I'm sure we're trying to determine serial/lot numbers to trace the supply chain.

---

Which will most likely end in shell companies from eastern Europe or the middle east who purchased it overseas from a retailer that doesn't have to follow any American laws.

AgLA06 said:

---

lb3 said:

---

Ulysses90 said:

---

I concur with GAC06. This is an ITAR question but you can treat it as analogous to the legal protections afforded to manufacturers of firearms and ammunition that prevent people from suing them for misuse by criminals or thieves.

Of course, there is strong precedent for prosecuting people who knowingly ignore import/export restrictions.

https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/the-stoner-arms-dealers-how-two-american-kids-became-big-time-weapons-traders-176604/

---

I'm sure we're trying to determine serial/lot numbers to trace the supply chain.

---

Which will most likely end in shell companies from eastern Europe or the middle east who purchased it overseas from a retailer that doesn't have to follow any American laws.

---

True but identifying new shell companies an placing them and their employees on the export black lists will cause minor disruptions in their drone weapon supply chain. It only take a single missing component to delay production as we've seen with auto production.

lb3 said:

---

AgLA06 said:

---

lb3 said:

---

Ulysses90 said:

---

I concur with GAC06. This is an ITAR question but you can treat it as analogous to the legal protections afforded to manufacturers of firearms and ammunition that prevent people from suing them for misuse by criminals or thieves.

Of course, there is strong precedent for prosecuting people who knowingly ignore import/export restrictions.

https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/the-stoner-arms-dealers-how-two-american-kids-became-big-time-weapons-traders-176604/

---

I'm sure we're trying to determine serial/lot numbers to trace the supply chain.

---

Which will most likely end in shell companies from eastern Europe or the middle east who purchased it overseas from a retailer that doesn't have to follow any American laws.

---

True but identifying new shell companies an placing them and their employees on the export black lists will cause minor disruptions in their drone weapon supply chain. It only take a single missing component to delay production as we've seen with auto production.

---

I doubt it.

It will be one of any hundreds of military contractors working from home by himself in his undies sending a couple POs according to what the miliary tells him to buy and keeping a percentage for himself. It's a worse version of wack a mole.

AgLA06 said:

---

FTAco07 said:

---

Key words there being "with knowledge or reason to know"

---

Yep.

Manufacturer sells it to wholesaler
Wholesaler sells it to distributor
Distributor sells it to retailer

Once it leaves your plant, you have no control or knowledge of where it goes.

---

However…….I have little doubt we have the intelligence to figure out who did sell it to Iran, and take the actions necessary to insure that firm doesn't do it again.

UPDATE

Russian Strategic Bombers are noted Airborne from Engel’s Air Force Base.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 4, 2023

Making sure they don't get hit or going on a bombing run?

Read previously about Russians attacking balloon. Whether accurate or not I have no clue. But it got me thinking. What prevents Ukraine attaching drones to balloons that can float deep into Russian territory before being released increasing their effective range. Release hundreds and only a few are bonafide attack drones.

Not exactly GPS quality accuracy……

Apparently, Ukraine now expects Russia to try to take Kyiv again. That was a major turnaround.

Unbelievable.

This is definitely a game changer

#Ukraine: The first confirmation of the delivery of very potent 🇫🇷 French 155 BONUS anti-tank cargo artillery projectiles to Ukraine, each of which carry two top-attack EFP submunitions which find their targets using three multiband IR sensors and LIDAR.

h/t @RALee85 pic.twitter.com/TtUs0jVUaj

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) January 4, 2023

Today's SITREP.

LiDAR is very expensive so these may only be available in limited supply.

P.U.T.U said:

---

LiDAR is very expensive so these may only be available in limited supply.

---

Indeed. Glad the Ukes got them though for if there is any shred of truth of Russia making another play for Kyiv, we will almost assuredly see armored columns again which is exactly what these things are made for. I don't put any real stock in that rumor but hey, Russia is not always entirely rational.

Same, I know there has been a lot of rumors about tanks and troops being sent to Belarus. If they do make a big push and it fails I cannot see how Russia can have enough equipment to make another big push for a while

Intel would show a buildup of vehicles. Most of what I have seen shows stuff going east, not to the north, but perhaps they are anticipating that is going to change. A significant attack would require a substantial logistical buildup.

MouthBQ98 said:

---

Intel would show a buildup of vehicles. Most of what I have seen shows stuff going east, not to the north, but perhaps they are anticipating that is going to change. A significant attack would require a substantial logistical buildup.

---

Based on the descriptions of Zeihan and Telenko, it would seem that those vehicles going to Belarus would likely be 1950s era Soviet vehicles that have been pulled out of boneyard parking lots where they have been parked for decades. Those are not the type of vehicles that would fair well in supporting a fight against an extremely well defended position even in the hands of well trained troops.

The only other source of military vehicles for Russia is to pull them from the borders of other European and Chinese or 'Stan borders. The Russians are "accepting risk" on an unprecedented scale by post WW II standards by moving equipment from the other borders but, the probability of war in Ukraine is 100% and the probability of war on the other borders is extremely low as long as nukes don't fly.

Civilian trucks that are confiscated for the war effort are not only poorly suited to the job but they leave gaps in the Russian supply chain to just get food on the shelf. Of course, they are imposing the pain on the southeast border states of the Federation first but the supply of trucks from the rest of the RF is rapidly dwindling and at some point it will be only Moscow and St Petersburg that will have functional truck based logistics for their populations.

revvie said:

---

Read previously about Russians attacking balloon. Whether accurate or not I have no clue. But it got me thinking. What prevents Ukraine attaching drones to balloons that can float deep into Russian territory before being released increasing their effective range. Release hundreds and only a few are bonafide attack drones.

---

Limitations on communication control. You could preprogram target coordinates but then the issue is on how and when to release the drone from the balloon of which you likely have no location on. It could be done but not in any mass quantities like we see dropping frags on orcs. Somebody on here is in drone development and can input more technical comments.

Use of balloons for decoys could help confuse ADA and help reduce ammo. Be great to see a few S300/400s shot at decoys. Then mix in the real deal.

Wagner's aggressiveness doesn't make up for its lack of competence. MERCS

Needing a pause, Putin orders cease fire. Time for Ukraine to pour on the pressure. NO BREATHERS!

AgLA06 said:

---

FTAco07 said:

---

Key words there being "with knowledge or reason to know"

---

Yep.

Manufacturer sells it to wholesaler
Wholesaler sells it to distributor
Distributor sells it to retailer

Once it leaves your plant, you have no control or knowledge of where it goes.

---

again that is not necessarily the case.

I literally work in this area of the law.

there are plenty of companies that are charged by DOJ with what you are claiming- of course most companies have a pretty good idea of where the articles are going.

It's actually PART OF THE LAW to know.

Know Your Customer Guidelines U.S. Department of Commerce (Export Administration Regulations)

KYC Regulations

the OFAC regulations and the ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations with DDTC) are even more strict about transfers to Russia and Iran

Understand the ITAR

Export Restrictions Russia and Iran

No point in arguing with you. In a perfect world you'd be correct.

I was over a division of a manufacturing company. We found our product installed in places and countries we had no idea it was in. Often because someone else wanting to purchase it or get warranty help called us.

Your customer is the first person you sell it to. Their intention is to sell it to someone else. Unless you are involved with quoting a project with specific knowledge other than product spec and quantities, knowing the end use / location is just not the norm at time of sale.

Russian President Vladimir Putin orders a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine on the eve of Orthodox Christmas following a request from Russia's spiritual leader Patriarch Kirill, according to the Kremlin.

"Taking into account the appeal of His Holiness Patriarch Kirill, I instruct the defense minister of the Russian Federation to introduce from 12:00 (0900 GMT) on January 6, 2023 until 24:00 (2100 GMT) on January 7, 2023 a ceasefire along the entire line of contact between the sides in Ukraine," the Kremlin says in a statement.

LMCane said:

---

Russian President Vladimir Putin orders a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine on the eve of Orthodox Christmas following a request from Russia's spiritual leader Patriarch Kirill, according to the Kremlin.

"Taking into account the appeal of His Holiness Patriarch Kirill, I instruct the defense minister of the Russian Federation to introduce from 12:00 (0900 GMT) on January 6, 2023 until 24:00 (2100 GMT) on January 7, 2023 a ceasefire along the entire line of contact between the sides in Ukraine," the Kremlin says in a statement.

---

Rejected by Kiev for the blatant hypocrisy that it is. NYET!

BREAKING: Germany will provide Marder infantry fighting vehicles to #Ukraine️. We’ll also join the U.S. in supplying an additional Patriot air defense battery.@POTUS and @Bundeskanzler are determined to provide Ukraine with the support that’s necessary, for as long as needed. pic.twitter.com/FHak6m9Uw2

— Emily Haber (@GermanAmbUSA) January 5, 2023

BRADLEY'S TOO

More great news: As seen below, president Biden said the US will supply #Ukraine with 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles. And German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, also said Germany intends to provide 🇺🇦 with Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles. https://t.co/qAfcUybuIk https://t.co/iRTc1aW6MI pic.twitter.com/SmfEduECOs

— Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) January 5, 2023

20 officers were killed and at least 100 wounded Russians. This morning the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked a base of the occupiers in Havrylivka Druha, occupied Kherson region. The occupiers gathered there for 5 days. pic.twitter.com/gPU6DknmjM

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 5, 2023

Need to stop messing around with 50 IFV's here, a battalion of old T-55's there. Equip and train brigades with Leopards or Abrams and Bradley or similar IFV/APC's.

Start ASAP and have them ready for when the mud subsides