***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,714,221 Views | 48142 Replies | Last: 41 min ago by Touchless
Waffledynamics
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Not sure if it's troop rotation or Russia actually falling back. Either way, Novoselivske appears to be 10-15 km NW of Svatove and has been contested for a while.
Waffledynamics
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About that big boom yesterday.

Quote:

Russian Ministry of defense: 63 Russian servicemen dead as result of HIMARS missile strike at base in Makiivka
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-january-russian-ministry-of-defense-63-russian-servicemen

Take the Russian MoD's word for what it's worth.
Waffledynamics
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sclaff
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They blew up SAMs stored at the Sam's ?
Waffledynamics
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ABATTBQ11
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So it's probably a lot more
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
Waffledynamics
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Missile strikes/shelling in the Kramatorsk region in the last 3-5 hours as I type this.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-january-explosions-were-reported-in-kramatorsk-

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-january-fire-in-druzhkivka-after-shelling-

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-january-missile-strikes-reported-in-kramatorsk

Waffledynamics
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Not really sure why Ukraine would broadcast this.

Quote:

Ukrainian military at Velyky Potyomkin island near Kherson
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-january-ukrainian-military-at-velyky-potyomkin-island-near

Video: https://t.me/dneproperatyv/51525

Eliminatus
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Waffledynamics said:

Not really sure why Ukraine would broadcast this.

Quote:

Ukrainian military at Velyky Potyomkin island near Kherson
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-january-ukrainian-military-at-velyky-potyomkin-island-near

Video: https://t.me/dneproperatyv/51525




Reddit sphere saying the Ukes already took the island.
lb3
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I think we talked this previously but I missed the video of the Ukes decorating their HIMARS with Christmas lights.

Waffledynamics
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lb3 said:

I think we talked this previously but I missed the video of the Ukes decorating their HIMARS with Christmas lights.




That is amazing.
lb3
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In the era of drone warfare, it's pretty ballsy to put lights on your artillery.
txags92
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lb3 said:

In the era of drone warfare, it's pretty ballsy to put lights on your artillery.
Now they can decorate a dozen decoys with those same lights and the orcs will claim credit for destroying 25 of them.
Red Pear Realty
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https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3645534-ukraine-army-blows-up-russian-ammunition-depot-in-occupied-luhansk-region-stratcom.html
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
74OA
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The move towards using war reparations to force Russia to pay for its damage to Ukraine is growing. DO IT!
74OA
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Difficult to overstate the disproportionate political and economic power the oligarchs once wielded. Ukraine's parliament recently passed a raft of reform laws (i.e., anti-corruption) as a step towards EU membership but implementing them would be even more difficult if the oligarchs' vast wealth was still intact.

WEALTH
LMCane
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mickeyrig06sq3
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lb3 said:

In the era of drone warfare, it's pretty ballsy to put lights on your artillery.

Nah, Russia is too busy wasting munitions on civilian targets.
Gilligan
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JFABNRGR said:

Vietnam Vet Volunteer in Ukraine doing a Blog along the way. I can't confirm any of this but some incredibly interesting posts. This one contains a video of him from back in March still training before being released to combat. Latest posts run up to very recent.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/04/12/they-create-a-lot-of-screaming/

An excerpt from another 5SEP22.

I can't remember seeing it. Yeah, nobody is born with a conception of violence. Unfortunately, many get a taste of it too young.
I remember something I wish I had kept: the argument about C shooting a Russian in the back.
I do remember one of the guys (Frenchy) jumped on C for popping a mutt in the back as he was shagging ass. C got a bit pissed and yelled "What the **** difference does it make if he was facing north or south."
In the heat of combat you are running so close to the edge that you do things that to the bystander, might seem cruel.
And, a live soldier lives to fight another day. And, often we are only five against quite a few more, so you tend to shoot and ask questions or address the morality of it later.
JFABNRGR - The guy with the blog is not the guy in the video. The guy in the blog stated this right below the video:

"Glad to see another old fart here. I didn't have to train any, but, I came in with contacts already made, and have had more recent combat experience in northern Iraq."

The blogger is keeping his identity tight and I assume that he's easily recognizable by western media and he goes at length to avoid the media.

My assessment is that he's a bad ass that is still very good at killing at the ripe old age of 76 years.

I look forward to figuring out his true identity.

Thank God for men like him that protect the people.

74OA
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Ukraine now producing its own artillery shells. RELOAD
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
Waffledynamics
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Much of this episode is, again, Russian State TV because of the little changes in the map due to the continued mud season. Expect that to change in the coming weeks. However, there are a few things of note:

22:06, heavy fighting in the Svatove/Kreminna front. Ukraine may be trying to cut farther NE of Svatove and cut off some resupply/reinforcement routes. Rob also says that Russia pushed West of Kreminna towards Zarichne and has been hitting Dibrova pretty hard with helicopters.



Worth noting that DefMon3's map still shows that area as contested and not captured by the Russians yet.

https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Operational%20Map%20Ukraine/nBT8ffpeGH



Russia is trying to assault Krasna Hora and Rozdolivka, North of Bakhmut in their attempts to surround Bakhmut.



Overall, it seems there is more heavy fighting around Bakhmut. I won't be too surprised if Ukraine pushes Russia back again. It's been back and forth there for months. Bakhmut still holds, though.
CondensedFogAggie
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Waffledynamics said:

About that big boom yesterday.

Quote:

Russian Ministry of defense: 63 Russian servicemen dead as result of HIMARS missile strike at base in Makiivka
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/2-january-russian-ministry-of-defense-63-russian-servicemen

Take the Russian MoD's word for what it's worth.
An L of an Ag
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A plan so terrible, it needs TWO step 2s!
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the "military commandant's office" in the occupied Vasylivka of the Zaporizhzhia region, there are casualties


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-january-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-hit-the-military-commandants

Posted by TASS, which is Russian media, but you can use that as corroboration if they're talking about bad things happening to themselves.
LMCane
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Russkies admitting to now "89 dead" from the Makiivka Barracks attack.

right...
Waffledynamics
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A balloon?

Quote:

According to Rostov region governor air defense shot down small balloon over Sultan-Saly village in Myasnikovsky district of Rostov region


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-january-according-to-rostov-region-governor-air-defense

74OA
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Inside the Iranian drones sold to Russia:

"Of the 52 components Ukrainians removed from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, 40 appear to have been manufactured by 13 different American companies, according to the assessment.

The remaining 12 components were manufactured by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.

A separate probe of Iranian drones downed in Ukraine, conducted by the UK-based investigative firm Conflict Armament Research, found that 82% of the components had been manufactured by companies based in the US."

IT'S A PROBLEM
AgLA06
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74OA said:

Inside the Iranian drones sold to Russia:

"Of the 52 components Ukrainians removed from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, 40 appear to have been manufactured by 13 different American companies, according to the assessment.

The remaining 12 components were manufactured by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.

A separate probe of Iranian drones downed in Ukraine, conducted by the UK-based investigative firm Conflict Armament Research, found that 82% of the components had been manufactured by companies based in the US."

IT'S A PROBLEM
We've discussed this at detail before, no?

I don't have time to read the link. There's nothing the USA or those companies can do if a third party sells basic components of computers or cell phones that are then used to make these things. That reads like they were specifically made for the drone and directly sold to Iran from the manufacturer. If that's the case, arrest them for treason. However, if Iran is cannibalizing Ipads or washing machines for chips and mother boards, that article is a joke.
JFABNRGR
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Good catch. certainly oga likely former SF given the amount of general experience all weapon systems. 4-23-22 calls him an O6.
I looked through some of Dave E. pics when they were in northern Iraq for a background catch for a few minutes and don't see a likely candidate.

Last paragraph worthy of note.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/05/04/things-might-get-interesting/
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
74OA
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AgLA06 said:

74OA said:

Inside the Iranian drones sold to Russia:

"Of the 52 components Ukrainians removed from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, 40 appear to have been manufactured by 13 different American companies, according to the assessment.

The remaining 12 components were manufactured by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.

A separate probe of Iranian drones downed in Ukraine, conducted by the UK-based investigative firm Conflict Armament Research, found that 82% of the components had been manufactured by companies based in the US."

IT'S A PROBLEM
We've discussed this at detail before, no?

I don't have time to read the link. There's nothing the USA or those companies can do if a third party sells basic components of computers or cell phones that are then used to make these things.
If you had bothered to read the article, you would have seen that was its point. It's virtually impossible to track illegal sales by unscrupulous third-party vendors.
LMCane
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AgLA06 said:

74OA said:

Inside the Iranian drones sold to Russia:

"Of the 52 components Ukrainians removed from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, 40 appear to have been manufactured by 13 different American companies, according to the assessment.

The remaining 12 components were manufactured by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.

A separate probe of Iranian drones downed in Ukraine, conducted by the UK-based investigative firm Conflict Armament Research, found that 82% of the components had been manufactured by companies based in the US."

IT'S A PROBLEM
We've discussed this at detail before, no?

I don't have time to read the link. There's nothing the USA or those companies can do if a third party sells basic components of computers or cell phones that are then used to make these things. That reads like they were specifically made for the drone and directly sold to Iran from the manufacturer. If that's the case, arrest them for treason. However, if Iran is cannibalizing Ipads or washing machines for chips and mother boards, that article is a joke.

You are just wrong.

There is an embargo on trade with Iran.

No Trade with Iran

OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL IRANIAN TRANSACTIONS REGULATIONS

31 C.F.R PART 560 GUIDANCE ON TRANSSHIPMENTS TO IRAN SUMMARY

Except as otherwise authorized, the Iranian Transactions Regulations, 31 C.F.R. Part 560, broadly prohibit the exportation, directly or indirectly, from the United States, or by a United States person, wherever located, of any goods, technology, or services to Iran or the Government of Iran. The prohibitions include exportation to a person in a third country undertaken with knowledge or reason to know, that such goods, technology, or services are intended specifically for supply, transshipment, or reexportation, directly or indirectly, to Iran or the Government of Iran.
FTAco07
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Key words there being "with knowledge or reason to know"
AgLA06
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FTAco07 said:

Key words there being "with knowledge or reason to know"
Yep.

Manufacturer sells it to wholesaler
Wholesaler sells it to distributor
Distributor sells it to retailer

Once it leaves your plant, you have no control or knowledge of where it goes.
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