***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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9:59a, 12/27/22
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AG
Serious question…When these dudes fall out of windows (especially outside of Russia), are they being tossed out? Or are they being offered the chance to jump so that they and possibly their families are not also killed? The former seems a bit more impactful than the latter.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to TheVarian • 10:16a, 12/27/22
AG
TheVarian said:
No I, I agree, it's not fun rucking around a 2 piece. Those MPX's are nice but I was more so referring to the medical supplies
I think this might have been a cache site they got burned at. In one of the pics there is some tarp like material

Ukraine statement on the team below.

The FSB announced the death of Ukrainian soldiers in the Bryansk region. Our servicemen confirmed this. PHOTO reportage
According to the version of Russian operatives, on December 25 there was a combat clash during an attempt to infiltrate the "DRG" into the Bryansk region from Ukraine.
It is reported that the "saboteurs" had foreign weapons, communication and navigation devices and 4 improvised explosive devices,
Ukrainian servicemen identified the dead.
Among the dead is Yury Horovets with the call sign Sviatosha, 34 years old.
"A successful saboteur. This was far from his first intelligence outing. The Russians paid a terrible price.
Nationalist. Christian. Actor. Wanderer. Veteran. A long-time member of the "Brotherhood" community, Yevhen Karas writes about the fallen soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine .
Also in the group were:
- Maksym Mykhaylov "Don't drink beer", 32 years old
- Taras Karpyuk "Tarasii", 38 years old
- Bogdan Lyagov "Apollon", 19 years old
Eternal memory. Heroes do not die!
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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TheVarian
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 10:18a, 12/27/22
AG
Rest in peace hero's
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JFABNRGR
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10:39a, 12/27/22
AG
Crazy video of Ukrainian defense against russian armor inf assault. Multiple suicide drone (new) hits, Javelin, Stugna, and what I think is anti tank mine. I count 7 pieces of armor hit. Ukes had this area layered in defense.
One of the Stugna hits is video'd by a different unit. Most of the vehicles appear to be full of INF. Last part of vid shows cosmonauts.

I know its on reddit but worth the watch. I will update when it reaches YT or somebody else can link twitter.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zwgm6x/work_of_new_ukrainian_suicidedrones/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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AgLA06
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In reply to agent-maroon • 10:53a, 12/27/22
AG
agent-maroon said:
Trying to remember the last time I stayed in a hotel room where you could even open the windows, much less get tossed out of one. Maybe that's a lolpoor thing?
You're equating the CYA litigation society of the USA to Europe.
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AgLA06
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 11:00a, 12/27/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Crazy video of Ukrainian defense against russian armor inf assault. Multiple suicide drone (new) hits, Javelin, Stugna, and what I think is anti tank mine. I count 7 pieces of armor hit. Ukes had this area layered in defense.
One of the Stugna hits is video'd by a different unit. Most of the vehicles appear to be full of INF. Last part of vid shows cosmonauts.

I know its on reddit but worth the watch. I will update when it reaches YT or somebody else can link twitter.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zwgm6x/work_of_new_ukrainian_suicidedrones/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
I bet is was a nice turn of events to turn a mechanized assault into a killing field for the Russians. Talk about demoralizing to the Orcs. Send an attack like that and nothing returns.
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lb3
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 11:35a, 12/27/22
AG
Wow. Is that a compilation from multiple days and multiple places? If that's a single battle that is an absolute ass kicking. For the olds, use this URL.
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lb3
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11:42a, 12/27/22
AG
Reading about how these sabatours have been accessing pre-positioned weapons and explosives caches has me wondering how many weapons caches China and Russia have here in the US. Obviously a topic for another thread but interesting thought knowing how active the Russian Mafia is in parts of the US.

As for the sabatours, it seems a few bricks of explosives would be easier to conceal and get through checkpoints than weapons.

But if you aren't targeting soft infrastructure like railway signal boxes that can be destroyed with a pick or sledge hammer and are going to need to travel with weapons, then why not go a little bigger and use an 81mm mortar and a drone? In two minutes you could launch your drone and be set up a couple miles away from your target. Two-three minutes more and you could have walked a few rounds on target. All told, 10 minutes from vehicle dropping off a two man crew to pick-up.
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AgLA06
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In reply to lb3 • 11:47a, 12/27/22
AG
The last thing you want to do is do anything to draw attention to yourself. Mortars are loud. And you have to be in the open to use them. And the ammo is heavy and explosive. C4 is a lot more stable and light weight.

If you're going to use a drone, you make it the weapon.

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AgLA06
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In reply to lb3 • 11:50a, 12/27/22
AG
Something many people don't seem to think about is the Second Amendment scares the hell out of other countries. Just like it did to Japan. It's one thing to have a sleeper cell in countries where only the miliary and police have weapons. It's another in places like Texas where anyone that can stumble upon you may be armed and capable of stopping sabotage.

But I'm sure there's "investment properties" sitting as part of holdings and storage units scattered across the US with all kinds of stuff. Not just weapon caches.
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Waffledynamics
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1:08p, 12/27/22
AG
Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov:

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Waffledynamics
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1:14p, 12/27/22
AG
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AgLA06
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:23p, 12/27/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov:



Except that hasn't worked and they've made the Russian military look like a joke for the last year.
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Waffledynamics
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1:30p, 12/27/22
AG


Quote:
Key Takeaways
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.
  • Putin is likely concerned over the lack of support for his war in Ukraine among elites and may be setting information conditions for the nationalization of their property.
  • Ukrainian intelligence reported that a Wagner Group-linked Russian officer was appointed commander of the Russian Western Military District (WMD).
  • Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets far in the Russian rear continue to be points of neuralgia for the Russian milblogger community.
  • Russian and Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian troops are fighting near Kreminna.
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made limited gains northeast of Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
  • Ukrainian military officials indicated that Russian forces may be concentrating some unspecified forces for offensive or demonstration operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and that Russian forces are attempting to conduct small-scale reconnaissance-in-force operations to reach right-bank Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian officials and nationalists began to criticize the Kremlin's lenient migration and passportization policies for Central Asian migrants.
  • Russia is continuing efforts to consolidate control of occupied territories in Ukraine through the manipulation of citizenship procedures.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to lb3 • 1:51p, 12/27/22
AG
lb3 said:
Wow. Is that a compilation from multiple days and multiple places? If that's a single battle that is an absolute ass kicking. For the olds, use this URL.
I think one suicide drone attack on IFV and the one into the foxhole are different but I still count 7 IFV/AFV in that battlefield with two out of frame.

There are several other vids on reddit in last 3 days in which large numbers of orcs absolutely hammered by UKR artillery. One they watch 12 soldiers enter a house and it takes a direct hit, one shot. Another a squad of 8 only 4 survived initially, and then both pics and vids of orc soldiers littering some of the fields around Bakhmut. Its no wonder Ukraine taking back slowly as they are just allowing the russians to enter the kill box on a daily basis playing the attrition strategy.

Here is one in thermal, not as accurate as the house shot.

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russian-troops-in-the-open-ravaged-by-artillery-fire/
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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2wealfth Man
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In reply to AgLA06 • 5:06p, 12/27/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
JFABNRGR said:
Crazy video of Ukrainian defense against russian armor inf assault. Multiple suicide drone (new) hits, Javelin, Stugna, and what I think is anti tank mine. I count 7 pieces of armor hit. Ukes had this area layered in defense.
One of the Stugna hits is video'd by a different unit. Most of the vehicles appear to be full of INF. Last part of vid shows cosmonauts.

I know its on reddit but worth the watch. I will update when it reaches YT or somebody else can link twitter.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zwgm6x/work_of_new_ukrainian_suicidedrones/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
I bet is was a nice turn of events to turn a mechanized assault into a killing field for the Russians. Talk about demoralizing to the Orcs. Send an attack like that and nothing returns.
I liked the 3 for 1 at 1:02.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 9:17p, 12/27/22
AG
Twitter version of orc assault annihilated.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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74OA
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9:25p, 12/27/22
AG
Today's SITREP.
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Waffledynamics
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3:29a, 12/28/22
AG
This is North of Georgia.

Quote:
Russian FSB killed 2 men in Chegem, Kabardino-Balkariya, accused them in preparing attacks on behalf of Ukraine


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/28-december-russian-fsb-killed-2-men-in-chegem-kabardinobalkariya

Hmm...
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Waffledynamics
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4:41a, 12/28/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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10:37a, 12/28/22
AG
Short thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1608050871580901376.html



Basically, the mobilized are worthless, artillery is the only reason Russia has any success at all, and they're starving for supplies and shells.
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P.U.T.U
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12:21p, 12/28/22
AG
Russia shelled maternity ward in Kherson

How Russian of them
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Waffledynamics
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12:52p, 12/28/22
AG


Still beating that drum.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:53p, 12/28/22
AG
So they want areas that Russia no longer has control of as well?
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Waffledynamics
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1:00p, 12/28/22
AG
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agent-maroon
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:04p, 12/28/22
AG
Putin doesn't come out of this with those territories and he's most likely a dead man walking, if he isn't already.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Waffledynamics
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2:05p, 12/28/22
AG
Really interesting article about every to expect in 2023. I would pull quotes, but I'm about to be a bit preoccupied. Good read, though.

https://ridl.io/the-russo-ukrainian-war-ten-months-in-taking-stock/
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lb3
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2:11p, 12/28/22
AG
For a while it's felt like both sides had punched themselves out resulting in a stalemate but it's slowly starting to feel like the lull in July before the August offensive.
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AgLA06
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In reply to lb3 • 2:34p, 12/28/22
AG
Yep.

Russia getting critically low on ammo and trained troops. Artillery barrels about shot out and low on ammo anyway. Whole segments of the line manned by conscripts looking to break and run for self preservation with no experienced leadership. Wide swaths of empty land between the front and Russia filled with nothing but Ukrainians itching for payback.

Spring is looking to be really fun if you're rooting for Ukrainian.

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Waffledynamics
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In reply to lb3 • 3:01p, 12/28/22
AG
lb3 said:
For a while it's felt like both sides had punched themselves out resulting in a stalemate but it's slowly starting to feel like the lull in July before the August offensive.


The mud is horrendous and really bad for offensives. There was a video a few pages back of a tracked vehicle practically swimming in it.
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lb3
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 3:22p, 12/28/22
AG
Winter is only a week old. Come mid January the ground should be frozen. They need to make some gains before the thaw hits in March/April.
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Eliminatus
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5:58p, 12/28/22
AG
Vice News did a nice humanitarian piece on Bakhmut. It's a long form video but the reporter focuses on the civilians and the soldiers fighting. Nice reminder that there are still a lot of civilians trying to get by there. Also appreciated his time on the Uke firefighters who may be one of the greatest unsung heroes of the whole conflict.



As far as the fighting itself, it is clearly at a stalemate on the macro level and will likely remain so in that area for some to come. I also do not think that there is any real argument that Russia is expending a LOT of resources there for little to no real gain and in the cold hard calculus of war, that alone makes it worth for the Ukes to keep fighting there and continue to bleed them. A la Battle of the Somme. Was cool to see the Uke mortarmen are actually Belorussian.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Eliminatus • 6:47p, 12/28/22
AG
Vice has become very liberal but when they put politics aside they are a legit news source The saddest thing about the war is all of the civilians being affected and this will last generations. Like Syria, Chechnya, and countless other places they are just bombing cities until the other side gives in. A civilian life is the same as a soldiers, a baby is no different since in 20 years they will be fighting them.

How lucky we are to be American and appreciate life's
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Eliminatus
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 7:00p, 12/28/22
AG
For sure. I am not a fan of the Vice in general myself but I will always tip my hat to their "News" division and their international reporting. Legitimately some of the better stuff out there. They must have completely different leadership than the rest of VICE.

And I could not agree more. That is one of the most obvious, to me at least, why I want Russia to lose and to lose badly in this newest conflict of theirs. Because it is exactly that, the newest and only the newest. They are historically one of the greatest upsetters of long term world stability since the Mongols. Their wars of the the last few generations are rife with war crimes and almost entirely done for petty and made up reasons. Ukraine is simple the latest in a long line of non-provoked aggression by Russia and the first to be able to stand up to Russia in the manner that they have.

Russia is a bad actor on the world stage and pretty much always have been. A LOT of people have suffered under them but most especially innocent civilians caught up in their "adventures". It sucks and it needs to stop. The Ukes have given the best chance of that to date. Bless them for that.
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Ulysses90
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In reply to AgLA06 • 7:06p, 12/28/22
AG
Worn out artillery tubes have some interesting implications and vulnerabilities that can be exploited.

Typically, artillery tube life is measured by the parameters of fatigue life and barrel erosion. Taking pullover gage readings on the bore diameter between the lands of the riflibg gives a good indication as to the degree to which a tube is losing accuracy over time. You can do this at any instant in time and get a fairly decent estimate of the barrel erosion and degraded accuracy. Intuitively, worn out barrels suffer the greater accuracy errors at longer ranges.

Fatigue life is a different matter for which the primary metric is "effective full charges" shot through the barrel since it was brand new. Low propellant charge for shorter range engagements has a fractional value such as .25 and a long range propellant with high chamber pressure has a value of 1.0. This data is normally (at least ~20 years ago in the US military) recorded manually by the section chief in the gun data book and those numbers from the book are periodically transcribed into the gun's maintenance records in a computer database.

My guess would be that there are very few Russian howitzer crews that are recording or maintaining accurate EFC data on their guns. Since they lack a professional NCO Corps that's not a bold assumption. Even if they were trained to record EFCs there has been a lot of heavy fighting and personnel turnover in the artillery units over the past 10 months and most guns probably no longer have a data book at all.

What that means is that the probability of old gun tubes rupturing increases constantly. There is no indication that the Russians are rotating their guns to the rear to be re-tubed. To the contrary, the Russians seem to be digging older and older museum pieces out of mothballs that probably lost their original data book during the Afghan invasion. Being a canonneer on a 122mm or 152mm gun is getting very dangerous just from the risk of the tube or breech rupturing.

The amount of covert attacks on the Russian supply chain by SOF and spies suggests that there may be an opportunity for the Ukrainians to exploit the vulnerabilities of the Russian artillery by sabotaging the ammunition supply chain.

Operation Eldest Son, conducted by MACV SOG from 1966-69, provides an example of how Ukrainian saboteurs could undermine the confidence of Russian artillerists by screwing with random pieces of ammo (fuze, projo, propellant) to cause catastrophic rupturing of the tube or breech.

https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Project_Eldest_Son

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