***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,744,133 Views | 48167 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by JFABNRGR
74OA
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Today's SITREP.
Red Pear Realty
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sponsor
AG
Ukes just hit the Kursk Airport (further inside Russia)



Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
Waffledynamics
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Looks like it was a fuel reservoir.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-december-fuel-reservoir-caught-fire-after-suspected-drone
Red Pear Realty
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sponsor
AG
Hard to fly planes with no fuel!
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
AlaskanAg99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-inability-to-protect-its-airbases-from-attack-is-baffling-2022-12

"In a statement on Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that attacks were carried out on its Engels and Dyagilevo air bases each home to nuclear-capable strategic bombers far from the front lines in Ukraine, killing three soldiers and damaging some aircraft. Those attacks, it claimed, were carried out with "Soviet-era" unmanned aerial vehicles.

...

Some observers believe the Russian defense ministry may have been referencing the Tu-141 reconnaissance drone that was first built in the 1970s. In March, one of these drones, armed with a bomb, crashed in Croatia. Neither Ukraine nor Russia claimed it was theirs, but the incident showed the craft is still being used today."



Looks like a V2 Nazi rocket.

aTm '99
P.U.T.U
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I am more baffled on how that thing can even fly.

Russia claims to have all this high tech equipment, which they do for special units, but everyone else gets Soviet era weapons. And we have seen a lot of the high tech weapon systems do not even work
txags92
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AlaskanAg99 said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-inability-to-protect-its-airbases-from-attack-is-baffling-2022-12

"In a statement on Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that attacks were carried out on its Engels and Dyagilevo air bases each home to nuclear-capable strategic bombers far from the front lines in Ukraine, killing three soldiers and damaging some aircraft. Those attacks, it claimed, were carried out with "Soviet-era" unmanned aerial vehicles.

...

Some observers believe the Russian defense ministry may have been referencing the Tu-141 reconnaissance drone that was first built in the 1970s. In March, one of these drones, armed with a bomb, crashed in Croatia. Neither Ukraine nor Russia claimed it was theirs, but the incident showed the craft is still being used today."



Looks like a V2 Nazi rocket.




Must have cannibalized all their S-300 air defense systems from around those bases to fire at civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Would still like to see the Ukrainians send a few to hit some of the power grid nodes supplying Moscow…
docb
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
You are probably right. I'd think that thing would be relatively easy to shoot down. I am not convinced that is what they are using though.
AgBank
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Good point on S300 rockets.

Ukraine can win this war with support from the West. If they hit too many "civilian" targets in Russia (grid node), it will be harder to raise money.
DCPD158
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AgBank said:

Good point on S300 rockets.

Ukraine can win this war with support from the West. If they hit too many "civilian" targets in Russia (grid node), it will be harder to raise money.
I think a strike on RU nodes for every strike on UK nodes (night of missile attack) would not hazard the support from the West. Just a 1 for 1 and the world would call it restrained.
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
Eliminatus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
Faustus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Already posted supra, but here is more detail:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/06/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Quote:

. . .
A drone attack on Tuesday struck near an air base in Russia, a local official said, a day after Ukraine used drones to hit two military bases deep inside the country in one of its most brazen attacks in the nine-month war. If Ukraine's forces are confirmed to have been involved in the latest strike, it would add to signs that Kyiv is willing to bring the war closer to Moscow and to President Vladimir V. Putin.

Russian officials did not directly accuse Ukraine in Tuesday's attack, which hit an oil facility near an airfield in the Kursk region, 80 miles from the Ukrainian border. The regional governor said on Tuesday that a fire caused by the strike had been extinguished and that there were no injuries.

Ukraine's willingness to hit far inside Russia's border has altered the geography of the war, shown failures in Moscow's air defense systems and signaled Kyiv's determination that Russia pay a heavier price for its unrelenting assault on Ukraine's infrastructure. After Monday's drone strikes, Russia launched a volley of missiles at Ukraine that left half of the capital region of Kyiv without electricity and worsened rolling power outages across the country. Many Ukrainians have been without heat and water in frigid temperatures.

Monday's attacks struck two military installations hundreds of miles inside the Russian border the Engels airfield and the Dyagilevo military base according to Russia's Defense Ministry and a senior Ukrainian official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to convey sensitive information. The drones were launched from Ukrainian territory, and in at least one of the strikes Ukrainian special forces working near the base helped guide the drones to the target, the senior official said.

Ukraine has not explicitly claimed responsibility for those strikes, as is its practice regarding military actions inside Russia. Yurii Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, said that the damage to the airfield at Engels appeared minimal. "But it is an alarming signal for them," he said on Ukrainian national television.
. . .
Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army officer, wrote on the Substack blogging platform that the strikes indicated how Ukraine "is now taking the fight to Putin."
. . .
He said the strikes also carried symbolic import, with a strike so close to Moscow Dyagilevo lies about 100 miles from the Russian capital delivering "a psychological blow" to Russian people "who thought they were largely insulated from the effects of the war."

The British military said on Tuesday that if Russia believed that the strikes were deliberate, "it will probably consider them as some of the most strategically significant failures of force protection since its invasion of Ukraine." Russian war commentators have intensified criticism of their country's military command, with some calling for urgent measures to strengthen defense around strategic facilities.
. . .

An image released by the administration of the Kursk region of Russia on Tuesday showed smoke rising above the area near the Kursk airport. (Credit NYT)
JB!98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.
JFABNRGR
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Vid of whole train of TOR AD assets going from russia into Belarus. Didn't they just ship out S300/400 from Belarus to russia or am I confusing that with armor in general MBTs/AFVs?

Interesting none the less and very well could be an indicator of not just a new front in the north but logistics hubs or sustained air or missile strike operations from Belarus. I just cant see putin sacrificing assets to protect Belarus in general when their own bases are getting hit deep within russia.

https://funker530.com/video/russian-pouring-air-defense-into-belarus/

If you go to this page there is also a vid of wagner *******s getting direct hit with artillery in two shots likely 7 out of the fight; 3 for sure.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
MouthBQ98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Probably what they offered Belarus in trade for getting S300/400 units. TOR is shorter range, considerably so.
Waffledynamics
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
LMCane
How long do you want to ignore this user?
74OA
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
KURSK
SouthTex99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Eliminatus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
JB!98 said:

Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.


Exactly first thing I thought of as well.

Apparently the vast numbers of dead brothers, husbands, and sons is not moving the needle fast enough for the Russian people. Bring the war to their doorstep. Make it REAL for them. So easy to live in your bubble when nothing is there to pierce it. At this point I think most of us here realize that Putin is not going to back down. So other means of making the Russians stopping must be paramount. And the best one is to get the people to turn on the government. It's a win/win/win for all of us here and Ukraine obviously.

One can hope at least.
LMCane
How long do you want to ignore this user?
SouthTex99 said:

Quite a bit of CO2 emission there.

anyone else notice that none of the Russkies are actually trying to put out the massive oil tank fire? they are just standing there filming it.

not good for Mother Gaia Earth!
LMCane
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Eliminatus said:

JB!98 said:

Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.


Exactly first thing I thought of as well.

Apparently the vast numbers of dead brothers, husbands, and sons is not moving the needle fast enough for the Russian people. Bring the war to their doorstep. Make it REAL for them. So easy to live in your bubble when nothing is there to pierce it. At this point I think most of us here realize that Putin is not going to back down. So other means of making the Russians stopping must be paramount. And the best one is to get the people to turn on the government. It's a win/win/win for all of us here and Ukraine obviously.

One can hope at least.
I gave you a star but I think this will not play out as you suggest.

Nazi bombing of London during the Blitz only hardened the British to keep fighting.

Allied bombing of Germany only strengthened the Nazi war effort from the part of the general population

Russian bombing of Ukraine is not bringing them to their knees.

why would pin***** explosions in Russia do anything to Putin? If anything, it gets even more of the ignoramuses to really believe that they are fighting NATO and fighting for the very existence of the Rodina.
Eliminatus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
LMCane said:

Eliminatus said:

JB!98 said:

Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.


Exactly first thing I thought of as well.

Apparently the vast numbers of dead brothers, husbands, and sons is not moving the needle fast enough for the Russian people. Bring the war to their doorstep. Make it REAL for them. So easy to live in your bubble when nothing is there to pierce it. At this point I think most of us here realize that Putin is not going to back down. So other means of making the Russians stopping must be paramount. And the best one is to get the people to turn on the government. It's a win/win/win for all of us here and Ukraine obviously.

One can hope at least.
I gave you a star but I think this will not play out as you suggest.

Nazi bombing of London during the Blitz only hardened the British to keep fighting.

Allied bombing of Germany only strengthened the Nazi war effort from the part of the general population

Russian bombing of Ukraine is not bringing them to their knees.

why would pin***** explosions in Russia do anything to Putin? If anything, it gets even more of the ignoramuses to really believe that they are fighting NATO and fighting for the very existence of the Rodina.


Aye. I agree actually. That's why I said one can hope. I don't actually believe it myself tbh.

Do stand firm on the Putin not stopping though. So how else does this war end? Militarily? Best option probably and the Ukes have punched back harder than the vast majority of us expected. Russia may very will collapse on the battlefield. Already lots of signs and cracks seen on the micro scale. Will it be enough to make a difference on the political front or will new waves of peasants just be rushed up? Political intervention is my next best bet I think. And internal strife makes the most sense to me on paper. But we shall just have to see I guess.

I will also say that the upcoming deep freezes is REALLY going to test Russia. More than the Ukes. Equipment is key of course but just as equal is discipline and resolve to operate in sub zero temps. And we have all seen a shocking lack of that from the Russians. On paper, the weather may be the force multiplier the Ukes have been looking for since HIMARS.
DCPD158
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Eliminatus said:

LMCane said:

Eliminatus said:

JB!98 said:

Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.


Exactly first thing I thought of as well.

Apparently the vast numbers of dead brothers, husbands, and sons is not moving the needle fast enough for the Russian people. Bring the war to their doorstep. Make it REAL for them. So easy to live in your bubble when nothing is there to pierce it. At this point I think most of us here realize that Putin is not going to back down. So other means of making the Russians stopping must be paramount. And the best one is to get the people to turn on the government. It's a win/win/win for all of us here and Ukraine obviously.

One can hope at least.
I gave you a star but I think this will not play out as you suggest.

Nazi bombing of London during the Blitz only hardened the British to keep fighting.

Allied bombing of Germany only strengthened the Nazi war effort from the part of the general population

Russian bombing of Ukraine is not bringing them to their knees.

why would pin***** explosions in Russia do anything to Putin? If anything, it gets even more of the ignoramuses to really believe that they are fighting NATO and fighting for the very existence of the Rodina.


Aye. I agree actually. That's why I said one can hope. I don't actually believe it myself tbh.

Do stand firm on the Putin not stopping though. So how else does this war end? Militarily? Best option probably and the Ukes have punched back harder than the vast majority of us expected. Russia may very will collapse on the battlefield. Already lots of signs and cracks seen on the micro scale. Will it be enough to make a difference on the political front or will new waves of peasants just be rushed up? Political intervention is my next best bet I think. And internal strife makes the most sense to me on paper. But we shall just have to see I guess.

I will also say that the upcoming deep freezes is REALLY going to test Russia. More than the Ukes. Equipment is key of course but just as equal is discipline and resolve to operate in sub zero temps. And we have all seen a shocking lack of that from the Russians. On paper, the weather may be the force multiplier the Ukes have been looking for since HIMARS.
People today are soft. Deprive Moscow, or even parts of the city, of power/heat and the people will start to protest. The Russian people feel isolated from the "war" and will start to actually take notice when they have no heat or electricity. So far, body bags haven't done much, since killed aren't from Moscow/St. Petersburg, but a few cold nights in some dachas will change some minds
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
DCPD158
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Eliminatus said:

LMCane said:

Eliminatus said:

JB!98 said:

Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.


Exactly first thing I thought of as well.

Apparently the vast numbers of dead brothers, husbands, and sons is not moving the needle fast enough for the Russian people. Bring the war to their doorstep. Make it REAL for them. So easy to live in your bubble when nothing is there to pierce it. At this point I think most of us here realize that Putin is not going to back down. So other means of making the Russians stopping must be paramount. And the best one is to get the people to turn on the government. It's a win/win/win for all of us here and Ukraine obviously.

One can hope at least.
I gave you a star but I think this will not play out as you suggest.

Nazi bombing of London during the Blitz only hardened the British to keep fighting.

Allied bombing of Germany only strengthened the Nazi war effort from the part of the general population

Russian bombing of Ukraine is not bringing them to their knees.

why would pin***** explosions in Russia do anything to Putin? If anything, it gets even more of the ignoramuses to really believe that they are fighting NATO and fighting for the very existence of the Rodina.


Aye. I agree actually. That's why I said one can hope. I don't actually believe it myself tbh.

Do stand firm on the Putin not stopping though. So how else does this war end? Militarily? Best option probably and the Ukes have punched back harder than the vast majority of us expected. Russia may very will collapse on the battlefield. Already lots of signs and cracks seen on the micro scale. Will it be enough to make a difference on the political front or will new waves of peasants just be rushed up? Political intervention is my next best bet I think. And internal strife makes the most sense to me on paper. But we shall just have to see I guess.

I will also say that the upcoming deep freezes is REALLY going to test Russia. More than the Ukes. Equipment is key of course but just as equal is discipline and resolve to operate in sub zero temps. And we have all seen a shocking lack of that from the Russians. On paper, the weather may be the force multiplier the Ukes have been looking for since HIMARS.
If the Ukrainian military can start and sustain a large winter offensive, the Russian forces will definitely collapse. The RU in Ukraine are not prepared or supplied for a winter war.
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
twk
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
DCPD158 said:

Eliminatus said:

LMCane said:

Eliminatus said:

JB!98 said:

Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.


Exactly first thing I thought of as well.

Apparently the vast numbers of dead brothers, husbands, and sons is not moving the needle fast enough for the Russian people. Bring the war to their doorstep. Make it REAL for them. So easy to live in your bubble when nothing is there to pierce it. At this point I think most of us here realize that Putin is not going to back down. So other means of making the Russians stopping must be paramount. And the best one is to get the people to turn on the government. It's a win/win/win for all of us here and Ukraine obviously.

One can hope at least.
I gave you a star but I think this will not play out as you suggest.

Nazi bombing of London during the Blitz only hardened the British to keep fighting.

Allied bombing of Germany only strengthened the Nazi war effort from the part of the general population

Russian bombing of Ukraine is not bringing them to their knees.

why would pin***** explosions in Russia do anything to Putin? If anything, it gets even more of the ignoramuses to really believe that they are fighting NATO and fighting for the very existence of the Rodina.


Aye. I agree actually. That's why I said one can hope. I don't actually believe it myself tbh.

Do stand firm on the Putin not stopping though. So how else does this war end? Militarily? Best option probably and the Ukes have punched back harder than the vast majority of us expected. Russia may very will collapse on the battlefield. Already lots of signs and cracks seen on the micro scale. Will it be enough to make a difference on the political front or will new waves of peasants just be rushed up? Political intervention is my next best bet I think. And internal strife makes the most sense to me on paper. But we shall just have to see I guess.

I will also say that the upcoming deep freezes is REALLY going to test Russia. More than the Ukes. Equipment is key of course but just as equal is discipline and resolve to operate in sub zero temps. And we have all seen a shocking lack of that from the Russians. On paper, the weather may be the force multiplier the Ukes have been looking for since HIMARS.
If the Ukrainian military can start and sustain a large winter offensive, the Russian forces will definitely collapse. The RU in Ukraine are not prepared or supplied for a winter war.
If the Ukrainians can mount a winter offensive on the left bank of the Dnipro, moving towards the coast of the Sea of Azov, I could see the Russian forces there folding tents and going "as far South as South goes" to steal a line from Game of Thrones, or lots of conscripts surrendering. Hard to see ill equipped Russian units standing and fighting if their supply lines are threatened.
DCPD158
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
twk said:

DCPD158 said:

Eliminatus said:

LMCane said:

Eliminatus said:

JB!98 said:

Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.


Exactly first thing I thought of as well.

Apparently the vast numbers of dead brothers, husbands, and sons is not moving the needle fast enough for the Russian people. Bring the war to their doorstep. Make it REAL for them. So easy to live in your bubble when nothing is there to pierce it. At this point I think most of us here realize that Putin is not going to back down. So other means of making the Russians stopping must be paramount. And the best one is to get the people to turn on the government. It's a win/win/win for all of us here and Ukraine obviously.

One can hope at least.
I gave you a star but I think this will not play out as you suggest.

Nazi bombing of London during the Blitz only hardened the British to keep fighting.

Allied bombing of Germany only strengthened the Nazi war effort from the part of the general population

Russian bombing of Ukraine is not bringing them to their knees.

why would pin***** explosions in Russia do anything to Putin? If anything, it gets even more of the ignoramuses to really believe that they are fighting NATO and fighting for the very existence of the Rodina.


Aye. I agree actually. That's why I said one can hope. I don't actually believe it myself tbh.

Do stand firm on the Putin not stopping though. So how else does this war end? Militarily? Best option probably and the Ukes have punched back harder than the vast majority of us expected. Russia may very will collapse on the battlefield. Already lots of signs and cracks seen on the micro scale. Will it be enough to make a difference on the political front or will new waves of peasants just be rushed up? Political intervention is my next best bet I think. And internal strife makes the most sense to me on paper. But we shall just have to see I guess.

I will also say that the upcoming deep freezes is REALLY going to test Russia. More than the Ukes. Equipment is key of course but just as equal is discipline and resolve to operate in sub zero temps. And we have all seen a shocking lack of that from the Russians. On paper, the weather may be the force multiplier the Ukes have been looking for since HIMARS.
If the Ukrainian military can start and sustain a large winter offensive, the Russian forces will definitely collapse. The RU in Ukraine are not prepared or supplied for a winter war.
If the Ukrainians can mount a winter offensive on the left bank of the Dnipro, moving towards the coast of the Sea of Azov, I could see the Russian forces there folding tents and going "as far South as South goes" to steal a line from Game of Thrones, or lots of conscripts surrendering. Hard to see ill equipped Russian units standing and fighting if their supply lines are threatened.
I would hold in the south and move enough troops to the east to crush the Wagner Group. Without the "high profile" group of bandits, thieves and prima-donnas, that sector collapses. Do that and drive south to Mariupol. Crush a symbol of Russian might and take back a Ukrainian symbol of pride.
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
twk
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
DCPD158 said:

twk said:

DCPD158 said:

Eliminatus said:

LMCane said:

Eliminatus said:

JB!98 said:

Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.


Exactly first thing I thought of as well.

Apparently the vast numbers of dead brothers, husbands, and sons is not moving the needle fast enough for the Russian people. Bring the war to their doorstep. Make it REAL for them. So easy to live in your bubble when nothing is there to pierce it. At this point I think most of us here realize that Putin is not going to back down. So other means of making the Russians stopping must be paramount. And the best one is to get the people to turn on the government. It's a win/win/win for all of us here and Ukraine obviously.

One can hope at least.
I gave you a star but I think this will not play out as you suggest.

Nazi bombing of London during the Blitz only hardened the British to keep fighting.

Allied bombing of Germany only strengthened the Nazi war effort from the part of the general population

Russian bombing of Ukraine is not bringing them to their knees.

why would pin***** explosions in Russia do anything to Putin? If anything, it gets even more of the ignoramuses to really believe that they are fighting NATO and fighting for the very existence of the Rodina.


Aye. I agree actually. That's why I said one can hope. I don't actually believe it myself tbh.

Do stand firm on the Putin not stopping though. So how else does this war end? Militarily? Best option probably and the Ukes have punched back harder than the vast majority of us expected. Russia may very will collapse on the battlefield. Already lots of signs and cracks seen on the micro scale. Will it be enough to make a difference on the political front or will new waves of peasants just be rushed up? Political intervention is my next best bet I think. And internal strife makes the most sense to me on paper. But we shall just have to see I guess.

I will also say that the upcoming deep freezes is REALLY going to test Russia. More than the Ukes. Equipment is key of course but just as equal is discipline and resolve to operate in sub zero temps. And we have all seen a shocking lack of that from the Russians. On paper, the weather may be the force multiplier the Ukes have been looking for since HIMARS.
If the Ukrainian military can start and sustain a large winter offensive, the Russian forces will definitely collapse. The RU in Ukraine are not prepared or supplied for a winter war.
If the Ukrainians can mount a winter offensive on the left bank of the Dnipro, moving towards the coast of the Sea of Azov, I could see the Russian forces there folding tents and going "as far South as South goes" to steal a line from Game of Thrones, or lots of conscripts surrendering. Hard to see ill equipped Russian units standing and fighting if their supply lines are threatened.
I would hold in the south and move enough troops to the east to crush the Wagner Group. Without the "high profile" group of bandits, thieves and prima-donnas, that sector collapses. Do that and drive south to Mariupol. Crush a symbol of Russian might and take back a Ukrainian symbol of pride.
The Russians have short, defensible supply lines in the East. On the other hand, they have a very long and very vulnerable supply line in the south. If you cut their road access from the East by driving to the coast, their entire position to the west of such a penetration would become just about untenable, including Crimea. Expelling the Russians from Crimea, or pushing them back to a small pocket around Sevastopol, would signal a cataclysmic defeat to a Russian population that, so far, is only marginally concerned by the lack of success in this operation.
lb sand
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
If the Ukrainians can mount a winter offensive on the left bank of the Dnipro, moving towards the coast of the Sea of Azov, I could see the Russian forces there folding tents and going "as far South as South goes" to steal a line from Game of Thrones, or lots of conscripts surrendering. Hard to see ill equipped Russian units standing and fighting if their supply lines are threatened.

I appreciate your conviction and hope you are correct.

lotoarmy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AlaskanAg99 said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-inability-to-protect-its-airbases-from-attack-is-baffling-2022-12

"In a statement on Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that attacks were carried out on its Engels and Dyagilevo air bases each home to nuclear-capable strategic bombers far from the front lines in Ukraine, killing three soldiers and damaging some aircraft. Those attacks, it claimed, were carried out with "Soviet-era" unmanned aerial vehicles.

...

Some observers believe the Russian defense ministry may have been referencing the Tu-141 reconnaissance drone that was first built in the 1970s. In March, one of these drones, armed with a bomb, crashed in Croatia. Neither Ukraine nor Russia claimed it was theirs, but the incident showed the craft is still being used today."



Looks like a V2 Nazi rocket.


Actually, looks like a Nazi V1, not V2. V2 was a true ballistic missile powered by a rocket engine. The above picture is like the V1, which was a jet powered cruise missile, with short wings.
Last of the Old Army
JB!98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
lotoarmy said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-inability-to-protect-its-airbases-from-attack-is-baffling-2022-12

"In a statement on Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that attacks were carried out on its Engels and Dyagilevo air bases each home to nuclear-capable strategic bombers far from the front lines in Ukraine, killing three soldiers and damaging some aircraft. Those attacks, it claimed, were carried out with "Soviet-era" unmanned aerial vehicles.

...

Some observers believe the Russian defense ministry may have been referencing the Tu-141 reconnaissance drone that was first built in the 1970s. In March, one of these drones, armed with a bomb, crashed in Croatia. Neither Ukraine nor Russia claimed it was theirs, but the incident showed the craft is still being used today."



Looks like a V2 Nazi rocket.


Actually, looks like a Nazi V1, not V2. V2 was a true ballistic missile powered by a rocket engine. The above picture is like the V1, which was a jet powered cruise missile, with short wings.
It is some of the most impressive airmanship you can watch to see the British Spitfire pilots flying up to a V1 and flipping it with their wing to cause it to spiral out of control. Why waste bullets when you can tip them!
agent-maroon
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Quote:

It is some of the most impressive airmanship you can watch to see the British Spitfire pilots flying up to a V1 and flipping it with their wing to cause it to spiral out of control. Why waste bullets when you can tip them!
Any links to videos of the above? Would love to see them if you do
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
JB!98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
agent-maroon said:

Quote:

It is some of the most impressive airmanship you can watch to see the British Spitfire pilots flying up to a V1 and flipping it with their wing to cause it to spiral out of control. Why waste bullets when you can tip them!
Any links to videos of the above? Would love to see them if you do
I just saw this but I am headed to bed. I know that I have seen them on WWII documentaries so I figure they are on youtube. I will look into that tomorrow.
twk
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
lb sand said:

If the Ukrainians can mount a winter offensive on the left bank of the Dnipro, moving towards the coast of the Sea of Azov, I could see the Russian forces there folding tents and going "as far South as South goes" to steal a line from Game of Thrones, or lots of conscripts surrendering. Hard to see ill equipped Russian units standing and fighting if their supply lines are threatened.

I appreciate your conviction and hope you are correct.


To me, the big question is, can the Ukrainians mount a substantial winter offensive? I'm somewhat skeptical about that, as I imagine the Russians are. My guess is that the Russian's immediate concern is not having their men freeze to death, more than a winter offensive. But, if a credible winter offensive happens, any Russian that can read a map who finds himself west of such a penetration is going to start thinking about survival.
P.U.T.U
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
With frozen ground it will be difficult for both sides to mount an offensive. Ukraine will need to keep targeting logistics/fuel and Russia will use quantity to take out Uke targets. It has already been an artillery heavy war and I see this happening over the winter. I think any offensives will be slow moving since both sides will mine roads and any offensives will likely need to come under artillery fire. Ukraine has done some of this, Wagner is basically the only Russian troops that have any concept of tactical maneuvering. As others said the issue is the short supply chain Russia has in the east.

Still crazy to me that since Russia lost most of their special operations troops their best troops are private military contractors that are technically illegal in Russia.
First Page Last Page
Page 954 of 1377
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.