***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,584,884 Views | 47797 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by Eliminatus
Rossticus
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Posting because some people on the interwebs still seem to be getting their undies in a wad over this nothingburger.

Thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590362683047841794.html

Rossticus
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Lol

Rossticus
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10thYrSr
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Rossticus said:

Posting because some people on the interwebs still seem to be getting their undies in a wad over this nothingburger.

Thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590362683047841794.html




So basically he says EMP is not a possibility because it would impact western Russia as well?

We have already seen that Russia does not care for it's population. Why is this out of the question? If EMP takes out drones and Ukraine internet posts, I have to feel that this is very much an option.
chickencoupe16
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AG
10thYrSr said:

Rossticus said:

Posting because some people on the interwebs still seem to be getting their undies in a wad over this nothingburger.

Thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590362683047841794.html




So basically he says EMP is not a possibility because it would impact western Russia as well?

We have already seen that Russia does not care for it's population. Why is this out of the question? If EMP takes out drones and Ukraine internet posts, I have to feel that this is very much an option.
It also screws with all of Russia's military hardware in/around Ukraine.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Who the hell knows what kind of technology is out there?

Anything of the sort would be classified.

The guy seems way too confident saying what can, and can't be done.
Rossticus
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Not to mention the dangers of impacting NATO countries, which would result in obvious additional consequences for Russia. There's just not enough benefit to accompany the cost.
Rossticus
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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

Who the hell knows what kind of technology is out there?

Anything of the sort would be classified.

The guy seems way too confident saying what can, and can't be done.


No. He's saying what can and can't be done with known technology. Additionally, if Russia had a means for employment of a precision targeted EMP burst that would fry Ukrainian tech and allow for a Russian military surge, they would almost certainly have used it to this point.
LMCane
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Rossticus said:

Crap like this leaking is what emboldens the Russian viewpoint that it's only a matter of time until we wilt.


Milley would have been fired at any other point in US history.

Since when is it the job of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to give public speeches on political decisions of other countries?!!? It's not the job of a US General to tell Zelensky what to do- it's the job of the State Department and the National Security Advisor.

Lincoln fired Generals for less!
LMCane
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AgLA06 said:

No offense, buy some organization called "Faytuks" would be the last to know about dissension in our ranks.

It's some Ukrainian "connected" news network that puts something like that out constantly so that westerners get riled up again and send more money and arms to Ukraine. If something like that was real, it would be coming directly from their President or consolut.
You are incorrect- I literally heard with my own ears thursday evening a clip on youtube where Milley was claiming at a meeting "there is no military solution to either Russia or Ukraine" and the priority should be negotiations.

"Mark Milley, the US's top general and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said initial indications suggested Russia was following through with its withdrawal from Kherson but cautioned that it could take time to complete.

"It won't take them a day or two, this is going to take them days and perhaps even weeks to pull those forces south of that river," Milley said, estimating that Russia probably had 20,000 to 30,000 troops north of the Dnipro River in that area.

Milley also estimated that more than 100,000 of Russia's soldiers had been killed and wounded in Ukraine, and added Kyiv's armed forces "probably" suffered a similar level of casualties in the war.

His remarks offer the highest US estimate of casualties in the nearly nine-month conflict to date, and came as Ukraine and Russia face a potential winter lull in fighting that experts say could offer an opportunity for some kind of negotiations.

Asked about prospects for diplomacy in Ukraine, Milley noted that the early refusal to negotiate in the first world war compounded human suffering and led to millions more casualties. "So when there's an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved : seize the moment," Milley told the Economic Club of New York."

Milley remarks to Economic Club NY
LMCane
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Imagine being under this bombardment as you are trying to get the heck out of Dodge

LMCane
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LMCane
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LMCane
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10thYrSr
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chickencoupe16 said:

10thYrSr said:

Rossticus said:

Posting because some people on the interwebs still seem to be getting their undies in a wad over this nothingburger.

Thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590362683047841794.html




So basically he says EMP is not a possibility because it would impact western Russia as well?

We have already seen that Russia does not care for it's population. Why is this out of the question? If EMP takes out drones and Ukraine internet posts, I have to feel that this is very much an option.
It also screws with all of Russia's military hardware in/around Ukraine.


Russian hardware is so old, I wouldn't doubt it could survive an EMP. Just like old cars in the US would still work after an EMP. This is an advantage for them. Fry all modern equipment (which they don't have) and return to basics.
10thYrSr
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10thYrSr said:

chickencoupe16 said:

10thYrSr said:

Rossticus said:

Posting because some people on the interwebs still seem to be getting their undies in a wad over this nothingburger.

Thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590362683047841794.html




So basically he says EMP is not a possibility because it would impact western Russia as well?

We have already seen that Russia does not care for it's population. Why is this out of the question? If EMP takes out drones and Ukraine internet posts, I have to feel that this is very much an option.
It also screws with all of Russia's military hardware in/around Ukraine.


Russian hardware is so old, I wouldn't doubt it could survive an EMP. Just like old cars in the US would still work after an EMP. This is an advantage for them. Fry all modern equipment (which they don't have) and return to basics.


Not to mention that a high altitude blast would take out starlink if it is geostationary.
Rossticus
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Starlink sats orbit at 550 km. A nuclear detonation for the sake of EMP would be at less than 50km. Ground terminals would be impacted like anything else but sats would be a non-issue.
lb3
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AG
10thYrSr said:

10thYrSr said:

chickencoupe16 said:

10thYrSr said:

Rossticus said:

Posting because some people on the interwebs still seem to be getting their undies in a wad over this nothingburger.

Thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590362683047841794.html




So basically he says EMP is not a possibility because it would impact western Russia as well?

We have already seen that Russia does not care for it's population. Why is this out of the question? If EMP takes out drones and Ukraine internet posts, I have to feel that this is very much an option.
It also screws with all of Russia's military hardware in/around Ukraine.


Russian hardware is so old, I wouldn't doubt it could survive an EMP. Just like old cars in the US would still work after an EMP. This is an advantage for them. Fry all modern equipment (which they don't have) and return to basics.


Not to mention that a high altitude blast would take out starlink if it is geostationary.
There are 3033 currently active Starlink Satelites.

An EMP wouldn't knock out more than a few.
Rossticus
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Well, the dam was definitely tagged by Russia on their way out. And boy was it a doozy. Still holding from what I can find thus far. Guess Russia was lying about Ukraine blowing it after all. I'm wearing my *shocked* face.



Pics from today:



Eliminatus
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AG
Rossticus said:




Fascinating read. Recommend to those who have time. A bit long. I'm a fast reader and still took me about 20 mins.

In short, invasion DID take most high level Uke commanders by surprise. Mid and low level, not so much. Russian VDV had a grand strategy to take Hostomel via air assault. Land a quick strike force, secure for big transports. Ukes were in chaos initially but they just swarmed the airfield essentially and killed a bunch of VDV and Russian plans were nixed.

Then goes on to describe the northern campaign early on. Pretty much what we all knew even back then. The invading Russians were actually their professional units and generally acted as such but the Russian high command threw them away on stupid attacks and on little to no supplies. Logistics crippled them and bought the Ukes time to organize. The cream of the Russian forces were basically sacrificed for little to no gain. One of the biggest mistakes was Russian not able to gain air superiority at all. Screwed their plans from the very beginning.

Western supplies and weapons make a difference. But they are fighting with everything and ultimately it is the Uke low and mid level command learning on the fly and being motivated that is making the difference.

To sum it up, it confirms what we all thought after it became so clear the first month. Russia royally ****ed this war up mixed with the Uke spirit of fighting armed with western tech.
CondensedFogAggie
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What a great read.

Some excerpts

Quote:

Well what about the hyped up NLAWs that were also used in the Kyiv area?

Well this thing is like a crazy woman, because you shoot at an enemy BMD and it targets a ****ing "Zhiguli" (soviet-made car translator's note). That's why it's so ****ed up. I won't say that NLAWs are a bad thing, they are quite effective, but the firing that my unit did was not very successful. And it's not because of the low level of professionalism of the ATGM operators.

How did the Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles perform in the direction of Kyiv?

In general, during the first phase of the conflict (before the enemy realised that UAVs were actually operating here) the Bayraktars were quite effective: both as a standalone combat element (a drone with bombs and missiles) and as an element of a reconnaissance-strike complex. In the first case they actually operated till the end of February, and as an element of RSC during the entire Kyiv campaign, because there is a powerful enough optical-electronic channel and they easily reached Irpin and Bucha from the outskirts of Kyiv and adjusted artillery fire.


I have heard it said that the "Pions" (203-mm self-propelled howitzer translator's note) saved Kyiv at the start of the war. What do you think of the Ukrainian high-power artillery?

Generally, Ukrainian artillery, 72 Brigade and its brigade artillery group, artillery of 80 Air Assault Brigade (AAB) showed incredibly strong results, because I know where "Pions" were located (in Devichki) - all these shells flew over my position and I could hear it flying perfectly. At night the situation was as follows: I could hear a convoy coming (at a great distance, but I could hear it because it was big and there was a lot of vehicles) and somewhere in the distance I could hear artillery fire. It is clear that it is not 152-mm, but something powerful. Quiet, hardly audible burst of shells, loads of explosions and silence. That's it no convoy anymore. There's a huge ****ing flame after 5-10 minutes. So I can say that artillery was doing everything possible and impossible to defend Kyiv. And for the most part, crushed convoys with tank wrecks are all artillery work.
Smeghead4761
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Rossticus said:


Actually I'm pretty sure that record belongs to the Red Army in 1941.
FamousAgg
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Rossticus said:

Well, the dam was definitely tagged by Russia on their way out. And boy was it a doozy. Still holding from what I can find thus far. Guess Russia was lying about Ukraine blowing it after all. I'm wearing my *shocked* face.



Pics from today:






More Russian precision. Barely hit the dam. Still enough to damage it severely, but nowhere near the center
Waffledynamics
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AG
Quote:

Border guard of Belarus accused Ukraine in planting mines at the border between two countries(on Ukrainian side)


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-november-border-guard-of-belarus-accused-ukraine-in-planting
Waffledynamics
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AG
I normally don't post these morning reports due to the length of it all, but I found this interesting. Russia claimed to control Optyne, but their shelling of it indicates they do not control it.

Quote:

At Bakhmut direction Russian army shelled Andriyivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Verkhnokamyanske, Zalizne, Klischiyivka, Mayorsk, Opytne, Soledar and Yakovlivka of Donetsk region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-november-at-bakhmut-direction-russian-army-shelled-andriyivka
agent-maroon
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AG
Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

Border guard of Belarus accused Ukraine in planting mines at the border between two countries(on Ukrainian side)


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-november-border-guard-of-belarus-accused-ukraine-in-planting
Why wouldn't they mine the border? Belarus is a russian vassal state and openly hostile towards Ukraine. It would be stupid on the Ukes part to not mine their border. Or am I missing something?
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DCPD158
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agent-maroon said:

Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

Border guard of Belarus accused Ukraine in planting mines at the border between two countries(on Ukrainian side)


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-november-border-guard-of-belarus-accused-ukraine-in-planting
Why wouldn't they mine the border? Belarus is a russian vassal state and openly hostile towards Ukraine. It would be stupid on the Ukes part to not mine their border. Or am I missing something?

And don't cross the border and it wouldn't be an issue anyway
revvie
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AG
DCPD158 said:

agent-maroon said:

Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

Border guard of Belarus accused Ukraine in planting mines at the border between two countries(on Ukrainian side)


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-november-border-guard-of-belarus-accused-ukraine-in-planting
Why wouldn't they mine the border? Belarus is a russian vassal state and openly hostile towards Ukraine. It would be stupid on the Ukes part to not mine their border. Or am I missing something?

And don't cross the border and it wouldn't be an issue anyway
There are few usable roads between Ukraine and Belarus and lots of natural obstacles. Some well placed mined areas will prepare and shape the area for a much easier defense than in the south.
jobu93
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AG
Rossticus said:




This is an excellent read
jobu93
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Once the VDV couldn't secure the airfields Russias goose was cooked.

The repeated notations of stretching communications makes me feel that the future actions will be so much harder as the orca are shortening their area of control, logistics, and comms.

Russia wasted their best troops on a flier that failed miserably. And they never recovered on a tactical or strategic basis.
P.U.T.U
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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

Who the hell knows what kind of technology is out there?

Anything of the sort would be classified.

The guy seems way too confident saying what can, and can't be done.


Lots of research has been done one the effects and spread of an EMP/nuclear would have on the electrical grid. Dr. William R. Forstchen wrote the books One Second After and did such a thorough job the military used it as a training platform. He is a military history and technology professor and while I think Ukraine would fair better than Americans an EMP, especially during the winter, would kill a large portion of the population of the next year
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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AG
lb3
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lb3
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AG
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