aezmvp said:

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benchmark said:

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Smeghead4761 said:

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aezmvp said:

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If the export range on that is 250 km (155 mi) the front fine would put the bridge juuuuust within range. You find a hole in their air coverage and you could probably hit the damaged area.

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If they're putting them on Su-24s, why not just fly out over the Black Sea and launch at the bridge from there?

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SU-24s range. Assuming a round trip from (say) Odessa and staying low altitude (say) 100 miles off the Crimean coast - it's a 1,000 mile round trip. Doubtful the SU-24 has this range capability given the payload and external fuel tank req.

Just give them the 350 mile version.

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The other option is from Uke territory over the front from Melitopol to Mariupol areas and that will have a good amount of air defenses. If those are softened up then you could chance it but Uke aircraft at a scarce commodity. And yes I'd be in favor of the 350 mi version too.

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our next tranche of weaponry should be getting the Euros to provide a squadron of Tornadoes or Eurofighters to the Ukes. backfill the Euros with a new squadron of F-16Ds from the ANG.

Train them in Czechia and base them west of Lviv. start to deploy eastwards as the SAM coverage increases.

Rossticus said:

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The once mighty Russian/USSR missle arsenal is no more.

British Intelligence confirming Ukrainian info that Russia now has only 120 Iskanders and a few dozen Kalibers.

How long until Russia's neighbors start eyeing all those juicy Russian gas fields? pic.twitter.com/rcCTfN4CtY

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) November 8, 2022

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don't worry, Teheran has now entered the chat room!

74OA said:

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The impending storm of Iranian-supplied SRBMs is a serious problem for Ukraine as it has no meaningful defense against them.

ATACMS would help target the launchers, but what is really needed is for NATO to proactively provide a SAM system capable of BM defense, instead of reacting after the damage is already done.

SRBMs

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I like the deterrence idea but not sure how much sway that actually has. Article is missing some key info as ATACAM listed range is 190 miles while the Zol***har is 435 miles. The orcs will be priority targeting the HIMARS themselves not static power structures, which the Fateh 110s might be used for. With a warhead of 1200LBs a single strike is likely to destroy an entire battery (4 in this war closely spaced by dozens of vids) of HIMARS. This is the game changer if Ukes lose 50%+ of their HIMARS. They need to review their security procedures on the HIMARS.

At 435 miles standoff, striking before launch is almost impossible and it seems like ADA systems needed are a month or more behind deployment to defend against while in flight, though I would assume some to get knocked down with current systems.

As somebody else said I think Iran needs to be targeted. Maybe Ukes can trade Iraq or the Arabs grain for a few hits on Iran.

Update strategy thought. I would assume putin to deploy some of these from Belarus, which will require a UKR response and a likely escalation to the war. The question will be does Lukashenko provide UKR with the intel prior, if he even has it.

Russian bloggers reporting massive losses near Svatove and also further south in Pavlika (closer to Bakhmut)

seems only testing defences

— C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) November 8, 2022

JFABNRGR said:

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74OA said:

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The impending storm of Iranian-supplied SRBMs is a serious problem for Ukraine as it has no meaningful defense against them.

ATACMS would help target the launchers, but what is really needed is for NATO to proactively provide a SAM system capable of BM defense, instead of reacting after the damage is already done.

SRBMs

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I like the deterrence idea but not sure how much sway that actually has. Article is missing some key info as ATACAM listed range is 190 miles while the Zol***har is 435 miles. The orcs will be priority targeting the HIMARS themselves not static power structures, which the Fateh 110s might be used for. With a warhead of 1200LBs a single strike is likely to destroy an entire battery (4 in this war closely spaced by dozens of vids) of HIMARS. This is the game changer if Ukes lose 50%+ of their HIMARS. They need to review their security procedures on the HIMARS.

At 435 miles standoff, striking before launch is almost impossible and it seems like ADA systems needed are a month or more behind deployment to defend against while in flight, though I would assume some to get knocked down with current systems.

As somebody else said I think Iran needs to be targeted. Maybe Ukes can trade Iraq or the Arabs grain for a few hits on Iran.

Update strategy thought. I would assume putin to deploy some of these from Belarus, which will require a UKR response and a likely escalation to the war. The question will be does Lukashenko provide UKR with the intel prior, if he even has it.

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Curious on the thought from article on letting russia know that we would supply ATACMs if russia uses iranian ballistic missiles.

Also should nudge Israel on further fun in iran.

LMCane said:

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Russian bloggers reporting massive losses near Svatove and also further south in Pavlika (closer to Bakhmut)

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Wagner has been getting their skulls caved in at Bakhmut for months now.

Drone footage of Ukrainian sniper fire hitting a Russian infantryman.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/NZMx3MGnCJ

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) November 8, 2022

Russia paid Iran €140 million in cash for the supply of drones. They also handed over samples of Western weapons seized in Ukraine for study. Russian aircraft brought to Iran 🇬🇧 NLAW anti-tank missile system, the 🇺🇸 Javelin ATGM, and the Stinger anti-aircraft missile — Sky News

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 8, 2022

ATX_AG_08 said:

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Russia paid Iran €140 million in cash for the supply of drones. They also handed over samples of Western weapons seized in Ukraine for study. Russian aircraft brought to Iran 🇬🇧 NLAW anti-tank missile system, the 🇺🇸 Javelin ATGM, and the Stinger anti-aircraft missile — Sky News

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 8, 2022

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The US & NATO knew this was bound to happen. I'm sure we aren't giving away stuff that we didn't want in the hands of our enemies

Waffledynamics said:

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LMCane said:

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Russian bloggers reporting massive losses near Svatove and also further south in Pavlika (closer to Bakhmut)

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Wagner has been getting their skulls caved in at Bakhmut for months now.

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Rumor is 15K plus in losses for Wagnerin Bakhmut which is why they needed all those prisoners (which were probably most of the casualties).

Svatove and Pavlika are different. Supposedly an entire top line Russian Marine brigade was destroyed as part of the Russian offensive.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/07/russian-marines-are-getting-killed-and-wounded-by-the-hundreds-in-ukraine/?sh=51153c7d3640

Putin losing his grip? STALINIST

JFABNRGR said:

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74OA said:

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The impending storm of Iranian-supplied SRBMs is a serious problem for Ukraine as it has no meaningful defense against them.

ATACMS would help target the launchers, but what is really needed is for NATO to proactively provide a SAM system capable of BM defense, instead of reacting after the damage is already done.

SRBMs

---

I like the deterrence idea but not sure how much sway that actually has. Article is missing some key info as ATACAM listed range is 190 miles while the Zol***har is 435 miles. The orcs will be priority targeting the HIMARS themselves not static power structures, which the Fateh 110s might be used for. With a warhead of 1200LBs a single strike is likely to destroy an entire battery (4 in this war closely spaced by dozens of vids) of HIMARS. This is the game changer if Ukes lose 50%+ of their HIMARS. They need to review their security procedures on the HIMARS.

At 435 miles standoff, striking before launch is almost impossible and it seems like ADA systems needed are a month or more behind deployment to defend against while in flight, though I would assume some to get knocked down with current systems.

As somebody else said I think Iran needs to be targeted. Maybe Ukes can trade Iraq or the Arabs grain for a few hits on Iran.

Update strategy thought. I would assume putin to deploy some of these from Belarus, which will require a UKR response and a likely escalation to the war. The question will be does Lukashenko provide UKR with the intel prior, if he even has it.

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Russians would need to first find the HIMARS launchers to hit them.

ATACMS would be a massive game changer for Ukraine because choke points for all of Russia's supply routes come within range, along with airfields and Sevastopol. It would make logistics for Russia much harder. ATACMS would be huge for Ukraine. Iranian SRBM's don't give Russians much more capability than they already have and only serve to backfill all of the missiles they've used up.

The loitering weapons have allegedly had some luck locating HIMARS.

That would be new.

As of yesterday the US DOD reported none had been destroyed to date.

I'll have to go back and look for some of the videos I've seen recently. Maybe it was a decoy I saw get hit.

AstroAggie15 said:

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ATX_AG_08 said:

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Russia paid Iran €140 million in cash for the supply of drones. They also handed over samples of Western weapons seized in Ukraine for study. Russian aircraft brought to Iran 🇬🇧 NLAW anti-tank missile system, the 🇺🇸 Javelin ATGM, and the Stinger anti-aircraft missile — Sky News

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 8, 2022

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The US & NATO knew this was bound to happen. I'm sure we aren't giving away stuff that we didn't want in the hands of our enemies

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this is one of the major reasons why Israel won't supply Ukraine with their advanced weaponry

LMCane said:

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AstroAggie15 said:

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ATX_AG_08 said:

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Russia paid Iran €140 million in cash for the supply of drones. They also handed over samples of Western weapons seized in Ukraine for study. Russian aircraft brought to Iran 🇬🇧 NLAW anti-tank missile system, the 🇺🇸 Javelin ATGM, and the Stinger anti-aircraft missile — Sky News

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 8, 2022

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The US & NATO knew this was bound to happen. I'm sure we aren't giving away stuff that we didn't want in the hands of our enemies

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this is one of the major reasons why Israel won't supply Ukraine with their advanced weaponry

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Apples to oranges.

Iron Dome deployed to protect major cities like Lviv, Kiev, Kharkive, and Odessa doesn't fall victim to offenses or counter attacks by company sized units on the east.

Your right pretty similar to orc cruise missiles but better accuracy.

We should just send them (ATACAMS) now then.

lb3 said:

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I'll have to go back and look for some of the videos I've seen recently. Maybe it was a decoy I saw get hit.

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Russia has been suckered by some obvious decoys. They've also claimed lots being destroyed, and IIRC even more than we've given them.

I just started this podcast but its between a retired SEAL and Marine MARSOC veteran that has been over to Ukraine 5 times now. In the end, the longer this war goes on the more it benefits Russia. Russia will keep throwing people at the war and outlast their enemy. This is what they have always done. My guess is at the end is the motto of the SAS, those who dares wins. Get the offensive and keep pushing Ukraine. The west, get them legit weapon systems now and move into Crimea this winter

Vigilance Elite with Mark Turner

P.U.T.U said:

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I just started this podcast but its between a retired SEAL and Marine MARSOC veteran that has been over to Ukraine 5 times now. In the end, the longer this war goes on the more it benefits Russia. Russia will keep throwing people at the war and outlast their enemy. This is what they have always done. My guess is at the end is the motto of the SAS, those who dares wins. Get the offensive and keep pushing Ukraine. The west, get them legit weapon systems now and move into Crimea this winter

Vigilance Elite with Mark Turner

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I disagree. The more men they feed into the meat grinder, the more the people back home in Russia will take notice. This will be another Afghanistan for them.

I also think that Russia's neighbors will start to get uppity and start flexing. Can't lose the cream of their military and think that nations in their sphere with go about their business fat and happy.

P.U.T.U said:

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I just started this podcast but its between a retired SEAL and Marine MARSOC veteran that has been over to Ukraine 5 times now. In the end, the longer this war goes on the more it benefits Russia. Russia will keep throwing people at the war and outlast their enemy. This is what they have always done. My guess is at the end is the motto of the SAS, those who dares wins. Get the offensive and keep pushing Ukraine. The west, get them legit weapon systems now and move into Crimea this winter

Vigilance Elite with Mark Turner

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I totally disagree with the part in bold. Just because they may eventually overwhelm Ukraine with sheer numbers and take away the 4 provinces they are trying to annex, doesn't mean it benefits them. If the result is that their economy is in ruins, they can no longer rely on sales of oil and natural gas to Europe, they can't import critical electronics and other needs due to sanctions, and they destroy their demographics by throwing away 150,000-200,000 of their young men, while another several million of their best and brightest flee the country to avoid mobilization, it definitely doesn't benefit them. Continuing to throw thousands of mobiks at superior Ukrainian forces may eventually result in some territorial gains, but due to the other costs I mentioned, it will result in a pyrrhic victory at best.

⚡️Media: North Korea makes winter uniforms for Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

Factories in North Korea are producing “large quantities” of winter uniforms, underwear, and footwear for Russian soldiers fighting against Ukraine, Radio Free Asia reported, citing unnamed sources.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 8, 2022

Not sure if credible, but if that is the case, that's pathetic. It would make sense since textiles are a large North Korean export.

Russian propagandists call on Iran to "show its might" in Ukraine.

What's up with the Russian might? Is it running out? pic.twitter.com/f3R6z6Pw0b

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 8, 2022

In some ways this. Those on the home front will take notice, but this differs from Afghanistan in that they've sold it as defending Russians in Russia, not supporting some foreign regime sympathetic to communism.

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Kherson Military-Civilian Administration, posted on his Telegram a message saying Ukrainian forces managed to break into northern part of Snihurivka in Kherson direction and gained a foothold after a day battle.https://t.co/gvYwyOW5cD pic.twitter.com/obKVOQcsaX

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 8, 2022

The 180-200 km defense line built by Russia in Ukraine's Kherson Oblast is contructed without any advertisement which accompanies the construction of “Wagner line” in the north.

This suggests Russia is not preparing offensives, but transitions to defense https://t.co/4Bcx9k7vBp

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) November 8, 2022

Empty Russian checkpoint at the entrance to Chornobaevka, near Kherson
(46.6916337, 32.5251251) pic.twitter.com/Fq7fc8Wyw5

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 8, 2022

DCPD158 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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I just started this podcast but its between a retired SEAL and Marine MARSOC veteran that has been over to Ukraine 5 times now. In the end, the longer this war goes on the more it benefits Russia. Russia will keep throwing people at the war and outlast their enemy. This is what they have always done. My guess is at the end is the motto of the SAS, those who dares wins. Get the offensive and keep pushing Ukraine. The west, get them legit weapon systems now and move into Crimea this winter

Vigilance Elite with Mark Turner

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I disagree. The more men they feed into the meat grinder, the more the people back home in Russia will take notice. This will be another Afghanistan for them.

I also think that Russia's neighbors will start to get uppity and start flexing. Can't lose the cream of their military and think that nations in their sphere with go about their business fat and happy.

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There really aren't that many options to open a second front. The Stan's are too economically dependent on Russia. Georgia is basically it.

Only issue with Georgia (besides a population of less than 5M) is that opening a second front against Russia would require Turkey to agree to transport all the weapons. A covert buildup could be done but that would take time.

P.U.T.U said:

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I just started this podcast but its between a retired SEAL and Marine MARSOC veteran that has been over to Ukraine 5 times now. In the end, the longer this war goes on the more it benefits Russia. Russia will keep throwing people at the war and outlast their enemy. This is what they have always done. My guess is at the end is the motto of the SAS, those who dares wins. Get the offensive and keep pushing Ukraine. The west, get them legit weapon systems now and move into Crimea this winter

Vigilance Elite with Mark Turner

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If you take this statement combined with the strategic value of Crimea, current defense fortifications on south side of Dnipro River, and recent talks about peace talks it is very logical. Russia in a long war will benefit, working to keep Crimea and a fair bit of the recent south and SE occupied areas as the death count rises and the west gets tired. Sanctions or not someone will buy russian goods.

2wealfth Man said:

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This ends quickly with the isolation and cutoff of Kiev. Ukrainian leadership and command and control better move west

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Oof

TX04Aggie said:

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Will there be a real incursion into Ukraine from the Belarus border as well, since they are a puppet of Russia?

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Interesting use of the word incursion