***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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DCPD158
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benchmark said:

Interesting if actually delivered. Has 1,000 lb warhead and infrared imaging terminal guidance. Range is 350 miles ... or export model with 155 miles. If 350 mile version it can reach the Kerch Bridge. Link: Storm Shadow


Poland really does hate Russia. You would think Germany would be the target of their loathing, but Russia obviously is #1 in their hearts
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lb sand
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We've got time. I'm sure we would all be interested to hear how difficult it actually is to defend against small uav's.
agent-maroon
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Quote:

The Soviet government officially accepts blame for the Katyn Massacre of World War II, when nearly 5,000 Polish military officers were murdered and buried in mass graves in the Katyn Forest.
Soviets admit to Katyn Massacre of World War II

There's a reason for the russian hate
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Matt_ag98
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lb sand said:

We've got time. I'm sure we would all be interested to hear how difficult it actually is to defend against small uav's.


Can't talk about it, but I was there at the front of the issue with supposedly the best Western powers and technology in Afghanistan in 2020, let me just tell you it is a problem without an easy "catch all" solution
fasthorse05
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agent-maroon said:

Quote:

The Soviet government officially accepts blame for the Katyn Massacre of World War II, when nearly 5,000 Polish military officers were murdered and buried in mass graves in the Katyn Forest.
Soviets admit to Katyn Massacre of World War II

There's a reason for the russian hate
Not to mention the thousands and thousands of Polish citizens and underground Polish fighters who were slaughtered by the Germans as the Soviets watched.

As the Soviets approached Warsaw, the Poles got excited and relieved, and chose to attack the remaining Germans in Warsaw. Welp, the Soviets decided (I'm sure at Stalin's order) to stop their advance to allow the Germans to wipe out as many Poles as possible.

The Soviets were every bit as ruthless, if not more so than the Germans, plus, their cruelty lasted about 60 years. The Soviets were quite a bit more subtle in their crimes, not to mention most of the crimes were never seen, covered, or reported on by US press. (Not much has changed)..
Eliminatus
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Matt_ag98 said:

lb sand said:

We've got time. I'm sure we would all be interested to hear how difficult it actually is to defend against small uav's.


Can't talk about it, but I was there at the front of the issue with supposedly the best Western powers and technology in Afghanistan in 2020, let me just tell you it is a problem without an easy "catch all" solution
I am near this realm myself these days and you are not kidding. Group 4 and 5 UAS you can use more conventional methods but the tiny little mavics and smaller that the Ukes are essentially using like snipers now are such a major problem right now.

It was an issue known already but this conflict accelerated it to a dire need to address and address it real damn quick.
BQ_90
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fasthorse05 said:

agent-maroon said:

Quote:

The Soviet government officially accepts blame for the Katyn Massacre of World War II, when nearly 5,000 Polish military officers were murdered and buried in mass graves in the Katyn Forest.
Soviets admit to Katyn Massacre of World War II

There's a reason for the russian hate
Not to mention the thousands and thousands of Polish citizens and underground Polish fighters who were slaughtered by the Germans as the Soviets watched.

As the Soviets approached Warsaw, the Poles got excited and relieved, and chose to attack the remaining Germans in Warsaw. Welp, the Soviets decided (I'm sure at Stalin's order) to stop their advance to allow the Germans to wipe out as many Poles as possible.

The Soviets were every bit as ruthless, if not more so than the Germans, plus, their cruelty lasted about 60 years. The Soviets were quite a bit more subtle in their crimes, not to mention most of the crimes were never seen, covered, or reported on by US press. (Not much has changed)..
They also prevented,the Allies from airdrops or aiding the Poles/Jews trying to fight back in Warsaw
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
aezmvp
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If the export range on that is 250 km (155 mi) the front fine would put the bridge juuuuust within range. You find a hole in their air coverage and you could probably hit the damaged area.
10thYrSr
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MouthBQ98 said:

For these drones, aren't there vehicle mounted optical tracking systems that can spot these things and gun them down at closer range with a couple of .50 cal machine guns? They aren't fast, they aren't stealthy, they don't evade. They should be relatively easy to acquire, track, and hit.

The Army once fielded a light AA setup with something very much like this, a .50 or two and a couple of stingers.


I guess it depends on what class of drone you are talking about. Observation is very difficult to take out above 50 meters because they are so small. What system does anyone have that can take down a small bird at 50 meters? Drones that can carry a payload aren't much bigger. The Iranian drones are small planes.



Which drones are you speaking about?

Observation drones are most easily taken out by jamming communication on the 2.4ghz and 5.8ghz level. Most of the drones operating in the Ukrainian battlefield have an effective range of 1.2 to 4 miles. They also have an auto home feature Wich sends them back to the takeoff point in the event of a disruption in communication.
tunefx
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Eliminatus said:

Matt_ag98 said:

lb sand said:

We've got time. I'm sure we would all be interested to hear how difficult it actually is to defend against small uav's.


Can't talk about it, but I was there at the front of the issue with supposedly the best Western powers and technology in Afghanistan in 2020, let me just tell you it is a problem without an easy "catch all" solution
I am near this realm myself these days and you are not kidding. Group 4 and 5 UAS you can use more conventional methods but the tiny little mavics and smaller that the Ukes are essentially using like snipers now are such a major problem right now.

It was an issue known already but this conflict accelerated it to a dire need to address and address it real damn quick.
Yep and yep. Involved with CUAS since '17. Tiny birds are a huge challenge. Tech is gradually getting there but tracking and interdiction are difficult. Need to solve before we see massive coordinated swarm attacks.

10thYrSr
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tunefx said:

Eliminatus said:

Matt_ag98 said:

lb sand said:

We've got time. I'm sure we would all be interested to hear how difficult it actually is to defend against small uav's.


Can't talk about it, but I was there at the front of the issue with supposedly the best Western powers and technology in Afghanistan in 2020, let me just tell you it is a problem without an easy "catch all" solution
I am near this realm myself these days and you are not kidding. Group 4 and 5 UAS you can use more conventional methods but the tiny little mavics and smaller that the Ukes are essentially using like snipers now are such a major problem right now.

It was an issue known already but this conflict accelerated it to a dire need to address and address it real damn quick.
Yep and yep. Involved with CUAS since '17. Tiny birds are a huge challenge. Tech is gradually getting there but tracking and interdiction are difficult. Need to solve before we see massive coordinated swarm attacks.




If you think you can fly a drone over sensitive areas in the United States, you are wrong. The only reason drones are working in Ukraine is because it is working in Ukrain's favor.

Drone denial is an active and real thing in other areas. Hell, anything that spoofs or jams GPS makes these things worthless. Not the threat you imagine.
lb3
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All we've seen so far are individually piloted drones/quad-copters. When do the swarms arrive?

I want to start seeing networked spotter drones relaying targeting information to other anti-personnel or anti-armor drones, all operating autonomously within a geofenced area.
Eliminatus
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10thYrSr said:

tunefx said:

Eliminatus said:

Matt_ag98 said:

lb sand said:

We've got time. I'm sure we would all be interested to hear how difficult it actually is to defend against small uav's.


Can't talk about it, but I was there at the front of the issue with supposedly the best Western powers and technology in Afghanistan in 2020, let me just tell you it is a problem without an easy "catch all" solution
I am near this realm myself these days and you are not kidding. Group 4 and 5 UAS you can use more conventional methods but the tiny little mavics and smaller that the Ukes are essentially using like snipers now are such a major problem right now.

It was an issue known already but this conflict accelerated it to a dire need to address and address it real damn quick.
Yep and yep. Involved with CUAS since '17. Tiny birds are a huge challenge. Tech is gradually getting there but tracking and interdiction are difficult. Need to solve before we see massive coordinated swarm attacks.




If you think you can fly a drone over sensitive areas in the United States, you are wrong. The only reason drones are working in Ukraine is because it is working in Ukrain's favor.

Drone denial is an active and real thing in other areas. Hell, anything that spoofs or jams GPS makes these things worthless. Not the threat you imagine.



On a large and mobile battlefield it is a major issue that we are trying to solve. Trust me. I am currently working with an extremely large, household name corporation who is spending a lot of money trying to combat this very threat. CUAS is still evolving and outside of hyper localized static areas with large amounts of funding and support , we are not nearly as secure as we hope to be in the future. Advances are being made but we are not there yet on scale.

There is a huge difference between providing security to a small location stateside and fighting a mobile kinetic war. Maybe take it from two Aggies who are actively employed in this area and not just tell them "It is not the threat you think it is".

And if you happen to be an actual SME on this topic, we need to get in touch because you then obviously know something that about 40 engineers and scientists with international connections and clearances don't know. And that is just my individual team.
10thYrSr
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Eliminatus said:

10thYrSr said:

tunefx said:

Eliminatus said:

Matt_ag98 said:

lb sand said:

We've got time. I'm sure we would all be interested to hear how difficult it actually is to defend against small uav's.


Can't talk about it, but I was there at the front of the issue with supposedly the best Western powers and technology in Afghanistan in 2020, let me just tell you it is a problem without an easy "catch all" solution
I am near this realm myself these days and you are not kidding. Group 4 and 5 UAS you can use more conventional methods but the tiny little mavics and smaller that the Ukes are essentially using like snipers now are such a major problem right now.

It was an issue known already but this conflict accelerated it to a dire need to address and address it real damn quick.
Yep and yep. Involved with CUAS since '17. Tiny birds are a huge challenge. Tech is gradually getting there but tracking and interdiction are difficult. Need to solve before we see massive coordinated swarm attacks.




If you think you can fly a drone over sensitive areas in the United States, you are wrong. The only reason drones are working in Ukraine is because it is working in Ukrain's favor.

Drone denial is an active and real thing in other areas. Hell, anything that spoofs or jams GPS makes these things worthless. Not the threat you imagine.



On a large and mobile battlefield it is a major issue that we are trying to solve. Trust me. I am currently working with an extremely large, household name corporation who is spending a lot of money trying to combat this very threat. CUAS is still evolving and outside of hyper localized static areas with large amounts of funding and support , we are not nearly as secure as we hope to be in the future. Advances are being made but we are not there yet on scale.

There is a huge difference between providing security to a small location stateside and fighting a mobile kinetic war. Maybe take it from two Aggies who are actively employed in this area and not just tell them "It is not the threat you think it is".

And if you happen to be an actual SME on this topic, we need to get in touch because you then obviously know something that about 40 engineers and scientists with international connections and clearances don't know. And that is just my individual team.


Not trying to make light, just a drone pilot who knows where my weakness is. Most drone control boards operate in the same way and are mass produced. I respect you have more knowledge about threats and I am not trying to minimize that.

However signal jammers and GPS spoofers, although they are limited in range, work. And they are portable. It's beyond the scope of this thread, so perhaps we should start another, because this topic bears serious discussion. I'd love to hear more from you and learn from you.

Smeghead4761
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benchmark said:

docb said:

I would think the best approach if feasible would be for Ukraine to make a push for Melitopol or even Maruipol to essentially cutoff the Russians in the south if they could establish some kind of fire control on the Kerch bridge (ATACMS?)
Orkhiv-Tokmak-Melitopol route (55 miles) is the most direct route - but also the most obvious and probably heavily defended. It took Ukraine months to set the stage and recapture the NE quadrant of Kherson ... equiv to about 20 x 20 mile area. In the past, they've avoided frontal attacks like they'd likely face taking Melitopol.

We'll probably have to wait until late Spring to see how it unfolds. In the meantime, let's hope their winter is as miserable as possible.
Probably the biggest challenge for the Ukrainians in getting the either Melitopol or Mariupol is going to be getting across the Dnipro. Or do they already have a bridgehead somewhere that I'm not seeing on the maps?
Smeghead4761
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aezmvp said:

If the export range on that is 250 km (155 mi) the front fine would put the bridge juuuuust within range. You find a hole in their air coverage and you could probably hit the damaged area.
If they're putting them on Su-24s, why not just fly out over the Black Sea and launch at the bridge from there?
lb3
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That's what they'll probably do. And it brings the added bonus of tempting Russia into moving some ships within range of the Uke's anti-ship missiles.
benchmark
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Smeghead4761 said:

aezmvp said:

If the export range on that is 250 km (155 mi) the front fine would put the bridge juuuuust within range. You find a hole in their air coverage and you could probably hit the damaged area.
If they're putting them on Su-24s, why not just fly out over the Black Sea and launch at the bridge from there?
SU-24s range. Assuming a round trip from (say) Odessa and staying low altitude (say) 100 miles off the Crimean coast - it's a 1,000 mile round trip. Doubtful the SU-24 has this range capability given the payload and external fuel tank req.

Just give them the 350 mile version.
MouthBQ98
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A strike bomber with no legs? How Soviet.
Matt_ag98
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"They also have an auto home feature Wich sends them back to the takeoff point in the event of a disruption in communication."

Now this part can be where some of the "fun" begins, disrupt signal, watch it return to "home", fire for effect
Matt_ag98
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Eliminatus said:

10thYrSr said:

tunefx said:

Eliminatus said:

Matt_ag98 said:

lb sand said:

We've got time. I'm sure we would all be interested to hear how difficult it actually is to defend against small uav's.


Can't talk about it, but I was there at the front of the issue with supposedly the best Western powers and technology in Afghanistan in 2020, let me just tell you it is a problem without an easy "catch all" solution
I am near this realm myself these days and you are not kidding. Group 4 and 5 UAS you can use more conventional methods but the tiny little mavics and smaller that the Ukes are essentially using like snipers now are such a major problem right now.

It was an issue known already but this conflict accelerated it to a dire need to address and address it real damn quick.
Yep and yep. Involved with CUAS since '17. Tiny birds are a huge challenge. Tech is gradually getting there but tracking and interdiction are difficult. Need to solve before we see massive coordinated swarm attacks.




If you think you can fly a drone over sensitive areas in the United States, you are wrong. The only reason drones are working in Ukraine is because it is working in Ukrain's favor.

Drone denial is an active and real thing in other areas. Hell, anything that spoofs or jams GPS makes these things worthless. Not the threat you imagine.



On a large and mobile battlefield it is a major issue that we are trying to solve. Trust me. I am currently working with an extremely large, household name corporation who is spending a lot of money trying to combat this very threat. CUAS is still evolving and outside of hyper localized static areas with large amounts of funding and support , we are not nearly as secure as we hope to be in the future. Advances are being made but we are not there yet on scale.

There is a huge difference between providing security to a small location stateside and fighting a mobile kinetic war. Maybe take it from two Aggies who are actively employed in this area and not just tell them "It is not the threat you think it is".

And if you happen to be an actual SME on this topic, we need to get in touch because you then obviously know something that about 40 engineers and scientists with international connections and clearances don't know. And that is just my individual team.


I'm ok with open-source thinking it's not a problem, hopefully Al-Queda, ISIS and whatever other terrorists cells that have an "analyst" dedicated to reading Texags took down that note lol
Not a Bot
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Per Wikipedia the range with a full weapons load out and external tanks is only about 320 miles.
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Matt_ag98 said:

"They also have an auto home feature Wich sends them back to the takeoff point in the event of a disruption in communication."

Now this part can be where some of the "fun" begins, disrupt signal, watch it return to "home", fire for effect


This 100% exists already. I flew my DJI Mavic during the 4th of July parade in Seguin last year and apparently I got to close to one of the air bases nearby…My screen went black, lost signal, and after what seemed like forever (probably 10 seconds), my screen popped back up and the drone was flying 180 degrees (forward facing) back toward me.
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JFABNRGR
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benchmark said:

Interesting if actually delivered. Has 1,000 lb warhead and infrared imaging terminal guidance. Range is 350 miles ... or export model with 155 miles. If 350 mile version it can reach the Kerch Bridge. Link: Storm Shadow


This is apparently fake news, or hopefully some sort of counter intel (i would say nothing and just send it). There is no doubt Poland hates russia and Poland does have AGM158 JASSM missiles including ER versions having a public range of 575 Miles making a Kerch Bridge strike quite viable compared to the shadow. Both have similar size warheads but the shadow is a 2 stage with a first penetrator. Given this I think the JASSM is a better weapon on this bridge target.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
MouthBQ98
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With regards to drones, there are probably limited economical solutions for the smaller observation and portable loitering attack drones: jamming, and maybe eventually counter-drones that can track and catch and collide with them, but that's quite a bit of automation to add. Detection and tracking of small targets isn't easy. Also, possibly optical energy weapons in light vehicle point defenses with perhaps enough power to kill the sensors or controls. Not cheap but theoretically durable at least as a area denial approach.

Larger drones can also be jammed but the inverse square law and greater sophistication and automation possible makes that harder. They are bigger targets easier to locate and track, and destroy, given the right weapons. Laser guided rockets, optical/reader tracked light guns can work as area denial. These bigger loitering munition drones with warheads should be easier to kill.
aezmvp
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benchmark said:

Smeghead4761 said:

aezmvp said:

If the export range on that is 250 km (155 mi) the front fine would put the bridge juuuuust within range. You find a hole in their air coverage and you could probably hit the damaged area.
If they're putting them on Su-24s, why not just fly out over the Black Sea and launch at the bridge from there?
SU-24s range. Assuming a round trip from (say) Odessa and staying low altitude (say) 100 miles off the Crimean coast - it's a 1,000 mile round trip. Doubtful the SU-24 has this range capability given the payload and external fuel tank req.

Just give them the 350 mile version.
The other option is from Uke territory over the front from Melitopol to Mariupol areas and that will have a good amount of air defenses. If those are softened up then you could chance it but Uke aircraft at a scarce commodity. And yes I'd be in favor of the 350 mi version too.
JFABNRGR
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aezmvp said:

benchmark said:

Smeghead4761 said:

aezmvp said:

If the export range on that is 250 km (155 mi) the front fine would put the bridge juuuuust within range. You find a hole in their air coverage and you could probably hit the damaged area.
If they're putting them on Su-24s, why not just fly out over the Black Sea and launch at the bridge from there?
SU-24s range. Assuming a round trip from (say) Odessa and staying low altitude (say) 100 miles off the Crimean coast - it's a 1,000 mile round trip. Doubtful the SU-24 has this range capability given the payload and external fuel tank req.

Just give them the 350 mile version.
The other option is from Uke territory over the front from Melitopol to Mariupol areas and that will have a good amount of air defenses. If those are softened up then you could chance it but Uke aircraft at a scarce commodity. And yes I'd be in favor of the 350 mi version too.
Speaking of softening up this is supposedly 60KM deep and likely a HARM strike. Check out the amount of molten aluminum crossing the pavement.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Burrus86
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JFABNRGR said:

aezmvp said:

benchmark said:

Smeghead4761 said:

aezmvp said:

If the export range on that is 250 km (155 mi) the front fine would put the bridge juuuuust within range. You find a hole in their air coverage and you could probably hit the damaged area.
If they're putting them on Su-24s, why not just fly out over the Black Sea and launch at the bridge from there?
SU-24s range. Assuming a round trip from (say) Odessa and staying low altitude (say) 100 miles off the Crimean coast - it's a 1,000 mile round trip. Doubtful the SU-24 has this range capability given the payload and external fuel tank req.

Just give them the 350 mile version.
The other option is from Uke territory over the front from Melitopol to Mariupol areas and that will have a good amount of air defenses. If those are softened up then you could chance it but Uke aircraft at a scarce commodity. And yes I'd be in favor of the 350 mi version too.
Speaking of softening up this is supposedly 60KM deep and likely a HARM strike. Check out the amount of molten aluminum crossing the pavement.



Smoking accident, of course!
lb3
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It apparently doesn't take much to set off these things:
CS78
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Man, people are really taking those tannerite videos to an extreme.
Rossticus
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74OA
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The impending storm of Iranian-supplied SRBMs is a serious problem for Ukraine as it has no meaningful defense against them.

ATACMS would help target the launchers, but what is really needed is for NATO to proactively provide a SAM system capable of BM defense, instead of reacting after the damage is already done.

SRBMs
txags92
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74OA said:

The impending storm of Iranian-supplied SRBMs is a serious problem for Ukraine as it has no meaningful defense against them.

ATACMS would help target the launchers, but what is really needed is for NATO to proactively provide a SAM system capable of BM defense, instead of reacting after the damage is already done.

SRBMs
What is really needed is to bomb Iran's nuclear and missile development/construction programs back to the stone age and destroy the missiles and launchers in Iran before they take off for Russia. But that won't happen while our leadership is still dreaming of sending the Iranians pallets of cash for promising absolutely nothing concrete regarding their development of nukes. So the alternative is to give the Ukrainians their own weapons that can threaten parts of Russia that Russia would like to keep. What good is a Black Sea fleet without a Black Sea base to host it? What good is holding Crimea if there is no bridge to Russia left? They can attack alot of things Russia would like to keep without attacking Russian territory.
Rossticus
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