And if Ukraine captures it they'll lose it anyway with Ukraine likely to shut down the canal flow in a more controlled fashion ASAP.

They'll take the benefit of taking it out and flooding out positions downriver to cover their retreat/destroy infrastructure plus the propaganda op of blaming on Ukraine AND not giving the deported residents of Kherson anywhere to return to. Just my opinion based on the typical Russian MO.

I actually hope you're right because it's to Ukraine's ultimate benefit if they don't.

twk said:

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Rossticus said:

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twk said:

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I tend to think that the fight in the Kherson region will be between the city and the dam up river. The Antonov bridge is outside Kherson on that side of town, and the dam is the other permanent bridge. If they can take control of that area, I think the Russians would be forced to withdraw from the city. If the Ukrainians were able to cross the river in that area, it would be cataclysmic for the Russians.

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Russians will be blowing dams and bridges as soon as Ukraine gets the upper hand. They've already blamed Ukraine for planning to do it so as far as I'm concerned they've just plain telegraphed it plain as day.

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They will not blow that dam unless they give up on their goal of permanently holding Crimea. That reservoir feeds a canal that runs into Crimea almost all the way to the Kerch Strait. It is key to the viability of much of Ukraine, as the Russians found to their cost when they stopped their 2014 operation at the Isthmus of Perekop, allowing Ukraine to dam the canal short of the occupation line and deprive Crimea of this water.

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They had Crimea from 2014 until the start of this war without the water. I agree it's a huge obstacle but the national interest of Russia isn't centered on the viability of agriculture in northern Crimea. It will hurt but they'll blow it if they think it will help retain Crimea in my opinion

GAC06 said:

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twk said:

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Rossticus said:

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twk said:

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I tend to think that the fight in the Kherson region will be between the city and the dam up river. The Antonov bridge is outside Kherson on that side of town, and the dam is the other permanent bridge. If they can take control of that area, I think the Russians would be forced to withdraw from the city. If the Ukrainians were able to cross the river in that area, it would be cataclysmic for the Russians.

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Russians will be blowing dams and bridges as soon as Ukraine gets the upper hand. They've already blamed Ukraine for planning to do it so as far as I'm concerned they've just plain telegraphed it plain as day.

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They will not blow that dam unless they give up on their goal of permanently holding Crimea. That reservoir feeds a canal that runs into Crimea almost all the way to the Kerch Strait. It is key to the viability of much of Ukraine, as the Russians found to their cost when they stopped their 2014 operation at the Isthmus of Perekop, allowing Ukraine to dam the canal short of the occupation line and deprive Crimea of this water.

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They had Crimea from 2014 until the start of this war without the water. I agree it's a huge obstacle but the national interest of Russia isn't centered on the viability of agriculture in northern Crimea. It will hurt but they'll blow it if they think it will help retain Crimea in my opinion

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Yep

GAC06 said:

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twk said:

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Rossticus said:

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twk said:

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I tend to think that the fight in the Kherson region will be between the city and the dam up river. The Antonov bridge is outside Kherson on that side of town, and the dam is the other permanent bridge. If they can take control of that area, I think the Russians would be forced to withdraw from the city. If the Ukrainians were able to cross the river in that area, it would be cataclysmic for the Russians.

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Russians will be blowing dams and bridges as soon as Ukraine gets the upper hand. They've already blamed Ukraine for planning to do it so as far as I'm concerned they've just plain telegraphed it plain as day.

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They will not blow that dam unless they give up on their goal of permanently holding Crimea. That reservoir feeds a canal that runs into Crimea almost all the way to the Kerch Strait. It is key to the viability of much of Ukraine, as the Russians found to their cost when they stopped their 2014 operation at the Isthmus of Perekop, allowing Ukraine to dam the canal short of the occupation line and deprive Crimea of this water.

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They had Crimea from 2014 until the start of this war without the water. I agree it's a huge obstacle but the national interest of Russia isn't centered on the viability of agriculture in northern Crimea. It will hurt but they'll blow it if they think it will help retain Crimea in my opinion

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It won't help really help them retain Crimea -- in fact, it would make it impossible for them to retain Crimea. They have found it very difficult to deal with the lack of water, and results in depopulation of an area that included a lot of ethnic Russians. At best, it would help cover their retreat in the short term, but the real utility of doing this would be to destroy Kherson and some settlements along the river downstream--that's it.

Desalination Plant

Waffledynamics said:

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AgLA06 said:

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I believe this was the one hit by Ukraine and the videos showed the fire. Belogord is in range and Ukraine has been hitting strategic targets all week.

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That would cause a power overload? Can you or someone else "explain like I'm 5"?

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Did the Ukes take out a generator before the grid went down? If you have a grid powered by several generators and you take one out, then the other generators have to pick up the load. The problem is that turbines/generators possess large rotational inertia/mass and cannot respond quickly to the sudden increase in their share of the electrical generation load. The operators of the working generators might have to take their unit offline to save it from the damage that the sudden extra loading would cause, which dumps additional load on the still operating units. You would then have a cascade effect where all the unit generators have to be taken offline to save them. The grid would then have to be restarted by ramping the power up slowly to full load distributed over all the units.

TLDR - if you take one unit out of the grid suddenly then it can cause a complete brownout of the whole grid.


This is from a 40yo memory of what causes a brownout as explained by a utility plant operator, so please don't flame me too harshly if some of the tech details are a bit rough.

PA24 said:

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Desalination Plant

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Requires a ****load of power. As in a Power Plant next door.

at least one of these things has been recovered intact so I'm sure ukraine and its allies know exactly what the warhead filling is, fwiw

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) October 20, 2022

Not a bad explanation at all! The only bit to "um ackshually" is that the rotational inertia actually helps, not hurts - keeps things spinning in the interim as the fuel valves open.

I don't think that would cause an overload. I'm not a transmission guy but I suppose a rapid de-load … say some large power user like a factory going offline … could cause a local over-frequency / over-voltage event.

Drone observes results so they don't shoot more than necessary and can confirm the target was destroyed.

I think Russia may be moving choice units back east of the river disguised as or mixed with civilians and will leave lesser units as a rear guard, then plan on using artillery to interdict Ukrainian occupation of the city.

It vindictively punishes Ukraine with the destruction of a large city and allows their own units to largely escape urban fighting while sacrificing only some weaker units that may never know how they're being used. The river will be easier to defend for the Russians.

Zobel said:

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Not a bad explanation at all! The only bit to "um ackshually" is that the rotational inertia actually helps, not hurts - keeps things spinning in the interim as the fuel valves open.

I don't think that would cause an overload. I'm not a transmission guy but I suppose a rapid de-load … say some large power user like a factory going offline … could cause a local over-frequency / over-voltage event.

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Texas generators were about 4 minutes from simultaneously shutting down in feb 2021 due to under frequency. A major plant going offline could really effect frequency like you mentioned

Quote:

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Let's say that the grid is running pretty close to its maximum capacity. Something causes a power plant to suddenly trip off line. The "something" might be anything from a serious lightning strike to a geomagnetic storm to a bearing failure and subsequent fire in a generator. When that plant disconnects from the grid, the other plants connected to it have to spin up to meet the demand. If they are all near their maximum capacity, then they cannot handle the extra load. To prevent themselves from overloading and failing, they will disconnect from the grid as well. That only makes the problem worse, and dozens of plants eventually disconnect. That leaves millions of people without power.

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This was what I was trying to explain

agent-maroon said:

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Quote:

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Let's say that the grid is running pretty close to its maximum capacity. Something causes a power plant to suddenly trip off line. The "something" might be anything from a serious lightning strike to a geomagnetic storm to a bearing failure and subsequent fire in a generator. When that plant disconnects from the grid, the other plants connected to it have to spin up to meet the demand. If they are all near their maximum capacity, then they cannot handle the extra load. To prevent themselves from overloading and failing, they will disconnect from the grid as well. That only makes the problem worse, and dozens of plants eventually disconnect. That leaves millions of people without power.

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This was what I was trying to explain

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All well explained. It is frequency problem. In the US it is 60hz, not sure what it is in Europe, but lose the frequency and you lose the entire grid. Sympathetic trips of power plants due to overload lead to that under frequency.

50hz over there

BattleGrackle said:

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50hz over there

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Ahh yes 50hz. Got called out to Messina Hof in my youth to investigate a power quality issue. Equipment tripping off. Sure enough the Bongino's in their wisdom had purchased some equipment from Europe and connected it. Sure enough, 50hz equipment on a 60hz system. Enough of the derail!

Today's SITREP.

Speaking of charitable Russians whose concern and love for Ukrainian civilians is boundless… BUT the Ukrainians want to destroy the poor Russians and so they're forced to do this. They simply have no choice because the lives of the Russian people are on the line, you must understand.

Russian lawmakers Andrey Gurulyov and Konstantin Dolgov advocate freezing, starving the Ukrainian civilian population, forcing them into exile by making their survival otherwise impossible. State TV host Olga Skabeeva disingenuously claims that Russia simply has no other choice. pic.twitter.com/joz8ui9P8l

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 20, 2022

This kind of genocidal rhetoric is on every Russian state TV show, and I watch all of the most prominent ones. The same talking points are often recited by various Russian lawmakers. This is what Putin's Russia stands for, it's truly monstrous.https://t.co/JtdtFpcPX2

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 20, 2022

Yah sorry for being unclear. What I was trying to clarify is a generator tripping isn't going to make a substation go boom.

txags92 said:

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None of this has anything to do with Ukraine. Please start another thread to discuss grid security in the US.

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Agreed, sorry for the derail!

txags92 said:

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None of this has anything to do with Ukraine. Please start another thread to discuss grid security in the US.

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That being said, does anyone know if Ukraine power systems are pole to pole or underground?

10thYrSr said:

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txags92 said:

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None of this has anything to do with Ukraine. Please start another thread to discuss grid security in the US.

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That being said, does anyone know if Ukraine power systems are pole to pole or underground?

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From what I've seen, it appears mixed. Underground in newer, more recently developed urban areas and pole to pole in older, outlying, and rural areas.

And I thought the TV was bad in Russia proper. Yikes!

This is the 🇷🇺🐷 funded TV in Georgia:
- The Russians lured the Ukrainian army into the fire bag and destroyed armored division.
- Yes this is the brigade, which trained and equipped by UK.
And.....and they showing a video from Arma-3 video game.
The left one is former general 🤡 pic.twitter.com/FyUbzPcNfi

— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔞𝔡 𝔇𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔯𝔦𝔠𝔱 (@TheDeadDistrict) October 20, 2022

Rossticus said:

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10thYrSr said:

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txags92 said:

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None of this has anything to do with Ukraine. Please start another thread to discuss grid security in the US.

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That being said, does anyone know if Ukraine power systems are pole to pole or underground?

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From what I've seen, it appears mixed. Underground in newer, more recently developed urban areas and pole to pole in older, outlying, and rural areas.

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So why has Russia not carried out infrastructure warfare? We know they are targeting power plants and other utilities with physical weapons, but they haven't been as effective as they could. Remember the Russian hackers narrative? They were presented to us as globally amazing hackers. Why haven't they been taking Ukrainian systems offline? Where are they?


https://www.vox.com/world/2018/3/28/17170612/russia-hacking-us-power-grid-nuclear-plants

Here it was in 2018! They can hack the US, but they can't hack Ukraine? They need to destroy instead of disable?

Was it all a lie? If Russians can do the things we were told they could, why aren't they?

The obvious answer would seem to be that they're really not very good at it. You can probably combine that with undisclosed assistance from Europe and the US to fight them off.

Personally, I'm hoping the lie about their abilities extends to their ability to project force via nuclear arms as well. I'd sleep much easier knowing we can do what we need to do in Ukraine without reprisal.

10thYrSr said:

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Rossticus said:

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10thYrSr said:

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txags92 said:

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None of this has anything to do with Ukraine. Please start another thread to discuss grid security in the US.

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That being said, does anyone know if Ukraine power systems are pole to pole or underground?

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From what I've seen, it appears mixed. Underground in newer, more recently developed urban areas and pole to pole in older, outlying, and rural areas.

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So why has Russia not carried out infrastructure warfare? We know they are targeting power plants and other utilities with physical weapons, but they haven't been as effective as they could. Remember the Russian hackers narrative? They were presented to us as globally amazing hackers. Why haven't they been taking Ukrainian systems offline? Where are they?


https://www.vox.com/world/2018/3/28/17170612/russia-hacking-us-power-grid-nuclear-plants

Here it was in 2018! They can hack the US, but they can't hack Ukraine? They need to destroy instead of disable?

Was it all a lie? If Russians can do the things we were told they could, why aren't they?

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I think it's important to realize the things they've done typically occurred during peace time when time was not a scarce resource. They don't have infinite ability to dominate an entire network of systems that is on exceptionally high alert.

Rossticus said:

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The obvious answer would seem to be that they're really not very good at it. You can probably combine that with undisclosed assistance from Europe and the US to fight them off.

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AKA, it was a lie to spread fear in America for political reasons.

Gordo14 said:

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10thYrSr said:

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Rossticus said:

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10thYrSr said:

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txags92 said:

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None of this has anything to do with Ukraine. Please start another thread to discuss grid security in the US.

---

That being said, does anyone know if Ukraine power systems are pole to pole or underground?

---

From what I've seen, it appears mixed. Underground in newer, more recently developed urban areas and pole to pole in older, outlying, and rural areas.

---

So why has Russia not carried out infrastructure warfare? We know they are targeting power plants and other utilities with physical weapons, but they haven't been as effective as they could. Remember the Russian hackers narrative? They were presented to us as globally amazing hackers. Why haven't they been taking Ukrainian systems offline? Where are they?


https://www.vox.com/world/2018/3/28/17170612/russia-hacking-us-power-grid-nuclear-plants

Here it was in 2018! They can hack the US, but they can't hack Ukraine? They need to destroy instead of disable?

Was it all a lie? If Russians can do the things we were told they could, why aren't they?

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I think it's important to realize the things they've done typically occurred during peace time when time was not a scarce resource. They don't have infinite ability to dominate an entire network of systems that is on exceptionally high alert.

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So they don't have enough time? Maybe they scheduled a trip to home depo.

Look, there is no doubt that "experts" were going on and on about cyber attacks in this country, and it scared the shlt out of people. I personally think it was the alphabet folks looking to score money from big contracts or stock purchases. Everything they do is for their own benefit. They were obviously very wrong.

⚡️ UK intelligence: Russia is 'seriously considering' major withdrawal from Kherson.

"The Russian authorities are seriously considering a major withdrawal of their forces from the area west of the Dnipro river," according to the U.K. Defense Ministry.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 20, 2022

You know, sometimes it's not all some banana republic conspiracy ***** It's a really easy thing to believe, but in practice it's way more complicated and risky to do in America than you think. Power in the US is so decentralized that it's incredibly difficult to keep corruption of the kind you are talking about on a scale small enough that it doesn't leak to the public. Why is it so hard to believe that when Russia had nothing but time they could mess around with our ****, but now that they have a crisis they are having to focus on smaller targets closer to home? It's similar to say September 11th, where it was easier to plan and execute an attack on America when they weren't getting bombed to ****, but the organization lost it's capability to launch sophisticated attacks abroad when their power structures were threatened and their resources were strained - they resorted to things like car bombs near to home.

Anyways we're straying too far off topic, but corruption really doesn't occur the way you are describing anywhere in the world. It usually comes in the form of agent fees for access to the "commanding heights" of the economy, it comes from consolidated ownership of those "commanding heights" within a choosen few oligarchs, or it comes from grifting off the top of government contracts usually through contracts to those same companies that are almost entirely owned by the oligarchs of a given country. All three of those are very challenging to do in the US (and much harder to get away with it) and in the west compared to the rest of the world.

Interesting ISW analysis of multiple events and topics. General personal observation from this and other sources ... Russia is too invested in this war to consider an offramp or good-faith settlement.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, OCTOBER 19

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Putin has slow-rolled his introduction of legal concepts and frameworks like military and economic mobilization, annexation, and martial law to the Russian population since September, attempting to normalize these concepts and limit domestic dissent. Putin likely understands that these measures are unpopular but may be counting on an upswell of fatalistic patriotism as more Russian families and businesses become tied to, and implicated in, the war in Ukraine. By gradually introducing additional measures, he likely also intends to work out likely unsolvable bureaucratic flaws in the Russian system, creating a more competent bureaucracy to implement the autumn conscription cycle (beginning November 1) as well as likely future waves of mobilization.

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