Sounds like the Russians may retreat from Kherson without much of a fight...

Guess we will see...

Putin has tasked Sergei Surovikin, “General Armageddon,” to lead Russia’s war with Ukraine. Surovikin is celebrated for his ruthlessness in Syria, for his willingness to make civilians the targets for Russian bombs, writes @rayanelamine15 https://t.co/8UTataDLyG

— Coda Story (@CodaStory) October 18, 2022

His official title is "General Armageddon"

Rossticus said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

AMRAAM and harpoon for what? Just taking advantage of the purse strings being open?

---

Probably

---

I'll just say this. Do I think this leads to WW3 or nuclear attacks? no.

Would we want to wait until it does to start ramping up production of material needed to fight a war like we did for WW2? Absolutely not. Especially since we've given a lot of our stocks to Ukraine and honestly haven't backfilled them like we probably should.

With things spiralling into recession and global uncertainty, it's going to hurt to spend the money on this. But not as bad if we actually find ourselves in an all out war.

Backfilling ordnance makes sense but as far as AMRAAM and harpoon (even counting NASAMS against AMRAAM) we have provided hundreds not tens of thousands

FireAg said:

---

That's the same Russian Army that has been raping, torturing, and executing innocent civilians, correct?

What a joke...

---

Nice touch accusing the Ukrainians of targeting power infrastructure as the Russians do exactly that. Also the comment about protecting civilians "but we may make hard choices". Nice.

I actually wonder if the strikes to civilian areas are targeted for specific people. I would assume they still have spies on the ground. Members of parliament, officials, military officers families, etc. granted they could be random to stoke fear, but i do wonder. It wouldn't be beneath them to spray gunfire in an area to make sure the right one goes down.

With the drones I suppose that's possible. A lot of the other damage recently was likely just because that was the intent or the result of using increasingly inaccurate weapons such as anti ship cruise missiles and surface to air missiles improvised as ground attack weapons

Ag In Ok said:

---

I actually wonder if the strikes to civilian areas are targeted for specific people. I would assume they still have spies on the ground. Members of parliament, officials, military officers families, etc. granted they could be random to stoke fear, but i do wonder. It wouldn't be beneath them to spray gunfire in an area to make sure the right one goes down.

---

The weapons they are using don't have anywhere near the accuracy to be used for precision strikes like that.

BREAKING: Moldova will announce mobilization in the event of radical changes in the course of hostilities in Ukraine or an increase in the flow of refugees, Defense Minister tells TVR-Moldova - TASS

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 18, 2022

Rossticus said:

---

GAC06 said:

---

AMRAAM and harpoon for what? Just taking advantage of the purse strings being open?

---

Probably

---

Could also be used to strengthen Far East assets now that the Chinese brown water fleet is larger than the US Pacific fleet.

GAC06 said:

---

Backfilling ordnance makes sense but as far as AMRAAM and harpoon (even counting NASAMS against AMRAAM) we have provided hundreds not tens of thousands

---

Hence, why I said I think we are being proactive and gearing up for war. Those are strike weapons like the first days of the gulf war to take out enemy air force and navy.

Occupation authorities in Kherson region of Ukraine declare evacuation of population from the right bank of Dnipro river, citing threat of destruction of dam of Kakhovka reservoir https://t.co/g4L1bK2F0P

— Bart 🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍🌈🇪🇺🇺🇦 (@_Bartotten_) October 18, 2022

Would not be surprised if Russia really does blow the dam. That would be a ton of water and take out another electric plant.

20,000 AMRAAM is roughly five missiles per aircraft in Russia's pre-war inventory, not counting existing stocks. Seems more likely a good excuse to just restock while the purse strings are open, like I said before.

Oh, see, we were mistaken. Nice of him to clear that up for us.

#UPDATE The Kremlin said it had "no information" on its forces using Iranian drones in Ukraine after Kyiv and the West said Moscow used Tehran's weapons for deadly strikes pic.twitter.com/TlENdKeaVS

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) October 18, 2022

Yep. Makes little sense for Ukraine to blow the dam. The bridge is already too damaged to support evac of heavy armor to the other side. This is just Russia blaming something that they plan to do themselves.

Solovyov keeps on going, but then pundit Yakov Kedmi steps in too and tells him to quit the "empty talk" 2/2 pic.twitter.com/8RsZkUfOzk

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) October 18, 2022

FriscoKid said:

---

Occupation authorities in Kherson region of Ukraine declare evacuation of population from the right bank of Dnipro river, citing threat of destruction of dam of Kakhovka reservoir https://t.co/g4L1bK2F0P

— Bart 🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍🌈🇪🇺🇺🇦 (@_Bartotten_) October 18, 2022

Would not be surprised if Russia really does blow the dam. That would be a ton of water and take out another electric plant.

---

Blow that dam, and they might as well write off Crimea. There is a canal that comes out of that lake that runs deep into Crimea almost all the way to the Kerch Straight. Crimea depends on this water, and the Ukrainians depriving them of it is one of the main reasons for Russia's invasion (when Ukraine pulled back in 2014, they made sure to dam the canal, which the Russians restored immediately after the current invasion).

I don't think Russia would blow the dam now.

Most plausible explanation, the Russian troops just planning to make a tactical regrouping under cover of human shield https://t.co/psKXNgkLa7

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) October 18, 2022

Was thinking the same thing over the past couple days. Order citizens to flee and mix the military in with them so they can't be attacked by Ukraine. Those soldiers are as good as dead if they stay to fight.

Russia doesn't give a rats ass about protecting innocent civilians.

txags92 said:

---

The only reason Russia blows the dam is if they think they will eventually lose Crimea too. Without that dam, Crimea goes without water.

---

Crimea loses the canal regardless. If Ukraine captures the dam they'll close the canal's sluice gates.

benchmark said:

---

txags92 said:

---

The only reason Russia blows the dam is if they think they will eventually lose Crimea too. Without that dam, Crimea goes without water.

---

Crimea loses the canal regardless. If Ukraine captures the dam they'll close the canal's sluice gates.

---

Yes, but if they had some hope of holding on to Crimea in a negotiated peace, they would want to make water from that canal a part of the deal. Without the dam, there is no water to feed that canal and no hope of getting water to Crimea until the dam is repaired/replaced. I know the Russians are amazingly short-sighted most of the time, but they won't destroy the ability to get water from that canal unless they think they are going to lose Crimea eventually.

More stuff going to Poland

Rzeszow #Poland
-USTransCom Atlas Air 747 CMB467
-USTransCom Atlas Air 747 CMB301 pic.twitter.com/o19jCwO8Tf

— Manu Gómez (@GDarkconrad) October 18, 2022

Location: 48.6218, 38.3605 pic.twitter.com/C3TlYJoXbb

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) October 18, 2022

We will solve the issue with “mopeds” within two weeks, - Arestovych.

“Ukraine will soon receive several hundred anti-drone stations, and until that, we will just simply shoot them down with the usual means.”

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) October 18, 2022

Definitely appears to be some disagreement within Israel as to the appropriate course to take in this.

#New: Donetzk-born Natan Sharansky, former Soviet refusenik, Jewish hero and right-wing politician, blasts Israel as "the last country in the free world which is still afraid to irritate Putin," calls on Israel to help arm Ukraine. https://t.co/sm7DzIaAB1

— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) October 18, 2022

Brig.Gen. Ryder does a great job of walking the reporter through the process & giving assurances the US & her allies will be ready for future conflicts w/o ever actually saying whether or not current drawdowns are impacting US readiness at this moment. https://t.co/AD0ngpU2b8

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) October 18, 2022

More dam commentary.

And if you want to avoid a flood, you need to move everyone to the Right bank of Dnipro, not left https://t.co/VkcWIVNUXg pic.twitter.com/AsKfAQtlwk

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) October 18, 2022

Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1582417486070239232.html

1/ The Russian Telegram blogger Vladlen Tartarsky has written a useful description of the terrain in occupied southern Ukraine, which helps to highlight the difficulties that both sides are facing in fighting over it. Translation follows. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/E0gPBxwt0z

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) October 18, 2022

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

---

P.U.T.U said:

---

Iran starting to provide arms is a massive escalation, they have copied several Russian weapon systems over the years and have been providing them to their proxies like Hezbollah over the past few decades. Iran pulls the strings, they can shift their supply from the middle east to Russia which gives them tens of thousands of artillery and missiles.

Iran also has a military program more similar to the US than Russia as the US CIA trained them in the 80s during the Iran/Iraq war (yes we trained and armed both sides). They do have NCOs and after seeing Russia's capabilities I think Iran may actually be more of a threat.

Russia and Iran also have zero respect for their enemies civilians. We have already seen the use of drones to go after civilian targets and I wouldn't be surprised if Iran started using proxies as suicide bombers/attackers. If I was Iran I would convince Russia to do what they did in Iraq in 2003-2006, IEDs, EFPs, suicide bombers, take out military recruiting stations, etc. which would make this nasty war even worse.

Every day it seems like we are a step closer to WW3

---

Iran is a sticky addition to this. It brings Israel into the fray, which may make them feel like they have an opportunity to have free reign to strike inside Iran, but Iran has a pretty close relationship and multiple treaties with China. Definitely don't want to strike that match.

---

Iran has been striking the match for many years and is extending and escalating this war, and not directly to help russia but to hurt the west. The best thing we can do to prevent further escalation in the UKR/Russia war is to strike some key Iranian facilities immediately: Nuke making, drone making/shipping, or anything else that is allowing them to support russia and any other terrorist faction. It does not have to be massive but it needs to destroy some of these immediate threats and send a big MSG that reads stand the **** down. Russia will be seeing this as well and their current strategy of shutting off power and water in all of Ukraine will be severely hampered without Iran. Lately the refugee crisis seems to have stabilized but if they are successful at killing off most of the utilities, the refugee issue will be a big problem for many neighboring countries who are supporting Ukraine.

Israel has stated at least publicly they are not going to support supplying Ukraine and we have every right to go after Iran now and for 10 years late for killing our soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan or even UIA572. They are doing this again in attempt to get russia to attack us directly. History has shown that Iran is a bully that needs to be throat punched every so often. The time is way over due and they are smart enough not to retaliate.

Some of you may think this is escalation but read above statement again research it if you don't believe it and then contemplate a 1100LB HE missile https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/zol***har/ striking a residential complex in the city centers of Kviv or Lviv or how about Iranian advisor helping out vodka drinking Ivan with coordinates of where that missile goes like an American or NATO asset. This gives Iran the perfect opportunity to strike horrifically all while denying any responsibility. These actions will induce immediate further western escalation. For comparison the Shaheed 136 is only carrying 88lbs of HE and see what it does to civilian apartments and power stations.

If it came to pass this would certainly seem to be indicative of Russia's intent to go all in and risk external intervention.

The theme of the Security Council meeting is migration issues: "regulation of migration processes in the interests of the country's socio-economic development and socio-political stability." (TASS confirmed this)

That sounds like it could be related to people leaving Russia

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 18, 2022

Or just restrict the movements of saboteurs.