Day 4 and still no train runs on the Kerch Bridge. No (military) supplies for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia since 4 days, at least not in large quantities. Remember, war of logistics and every day counts. #Kerch #Crimea #Ukraine

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 11, 2022

CLIFF NOTES:

At the beginning, Denys discusses the rocket attacks today but says that they were pretty much all shot down due to being fired in small groups, unlike the massive barrage that took place a couple of days ago. Later in the video, he says that out of the 28 rockets launched, 20 were shot down. Most of the Iranian kamikaze drones that Russia used were shot down.

At 0:22, he shows that there isn't much movement at all on the Luhansk front in the Northeast, probably because both sides are regrouping and preparing for the next assault.

At 1:28, Denys gives a bit of an update in the Bakhmut area. Ukraine is still holding the city and has Russia at a standstill. I'm not comfortable with how much progress Russia's made here, but it's not the first time they've been so close to the city if you go back far enough on . They also take a lot of losses trying to attack the city.

At 1:58, Denys says that while the fighting in the Kherson area continues, it's at a standstill at the moment as far as land goes.

At 2:23, Denys discusses the Belarus front. They have concentrated approximately 6 BTGs along the border with Ukraine, and Russia has sent around 15,000 mobilized soldiers (aka mobiks). Meanwhile, Belarus still sends equipment and vehicles to Russia. Zelensky asked the G7 for a peacekeeping operation along the border with Belarus. I doubt that will happen.

At 4:31, we get to find out about a prisoner exchange. Glad to see that happened.

At 6:30, he says that Ukraine has half day blackouts due to damage to the power infrastructure.

At 8:42, we get to see an IRIS-T system that was delivered to Ukraine.

At 9:21, Denys shows a map of missile strikes. Lviv (where I have friends from and acquaintances in) has been suffering from power failures because of these strikes. Russia hit power plants. More air defense systems are badly needed to combat rockets.

Slava Ukraini and **** Russia.

Billionaire Yuri #Milner, who is in the top 15 of the #Russian #Forbes list, renounced his Russian citizenship. Milner is the third billionaire to renounce Russian citizenship since the beginning of the invasion. https://t.co/89b9NygI4P

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 11, 2022

Zelensky better be careful about an assassination attempt. They WILL attempt this if they could ever pin down his time/location and it won't matter where in the world he happened to be located.

Private PoopyPants said:

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Rosfinmonitoring has included Meta Corporation in the list of terrorists and extremists. pic.twitter.com/vgHTwm2spI

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 11, 2022

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They may not be wrong.

“Musk told [@ianbremmer] that Putin was “prepared to negotiate,” but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.”

In other words, if Ukraine were destroyed. https://t.co/ACVJIA1B7b

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 11, 2022

There is no negotiating. Putin wants it all, just as he has the entire time.

But, this war is about resources; not nato, nazis, western culture, "traditional" Russian land.

Wellll, Musk is now a liability.

Elon Musk denied a Ukrainian 🇺🇦 request to enable the use of Starlink in Russian-occupied Crimea

Musk says he fears a Ukrainian offensive could start a nuclear war

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) October 12, 2022

A senior EU official tells me that “Poland and the Baltic states have donated 1/3 of their ENTIRE military to Ukraine”

Really puts Germany & France's contribution into perspective. Both need to do more

— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) October 11, 2022

I've posted a similar overlay but this helps me get oriented.

Lviv ~ El Paso
Kyiv ~ West of Abilene
Kherson ~ Uvalde
Donetsk ~ Spring
Mariupol ~ Freeport
Kharkiv ~ Waco
Sevastopol ~ McAllen
Luhansk ~ Woodville/Big Thicket
Odesa ~ Opposite Del Rio
Moscow ~ Wichita Kansas
Belgorod ~ Plano

Rossticus said:

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Wellll, Musk is now a liability.

Elon Musk denied a Ukrainian 🇺🇦 request to enable the use of Starlink in Russian-occupied Crimea

Musk says he fears a Ukrainian offensive could start a nuclear war

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) October 12, 2022

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More like "Musk believes that honoring this request would result in the rooskies retaliating by taking out a couple of his very expensive satellites."

Musk is obviously taking whatever threat they made seriously.

The problem becomes, what are Musks limits if pressed by Russia? Would he disclose data to Russia or limit Ukraine's usage of Starlink in order to cover his ass? Will he get people killed if he deems it to be in his best financial interests?

The fact that he was receptive to Putin in the first place, combined with his sudden crawfishing, makes me incredibly leery of his trustworthiness moving forward.

Rossticus said:

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The problem becomes, what are Musks limits if pressed by Russia? Would he disclose data to Russia or limit Ukraine's usage of Starlink in order to cover his ass? Will he get people killed if he deems it to be in his best financial interests?

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He gave them an internet connection. If Ukraine is beating Russia because of an internet connection then this world is screwed.

FriscoKid said:

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Rossticus said:

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The problem becomes, what are Musks limits if pressed by Russia? Would he disclose data to Russia or limit Ukraine's usage of Starlink in order to cover his ass? Will he get people killed if he deems it to be in his best financial interests?

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He gave them an internet connection. If Ukraine is beating Russia because of an internet connection then this world is screwed.

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If it weren't for the fact that the Ukrainian military was using it for comms I'd agree. Comms are huge and have been a significant advantage in favor the Ukrainians. If they lose that advantage without a reasonably comparable replacement solution then that'll be of tremendous benefit to Russia.

Rossticus said:

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The problem becomes, what are Musks limits if pressed by Russia? Would he disclose data to Russia or limit Ukraine's usage of Starlink in order to cover his ass? Will he get people killed if he deems it to be in his best financial interests?

The fact that he was receptive to Putin in the first place, combined with his sudden crawfishing, makes me incredibly leery of his trustworthiness moving forward.

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The problem is relying too much on one man and one man alone. Elon Musk is a smart dude but he is still an individual with his own individual thoughts. That is first and foremost. He is not beholden to any state entity or body of people. Period. As much as I disagree with him, I am not going to hate him for it. He is not Tony Stark and never has been. It is our fault for ever allowing ourselves to think he was. It is just another problem to be surmounted, 'tis all.

This is still a tactical situation and bad on the Ukes if they have not been using this time to shore up their own communications hubs, equipment, and protocols. It won't be as efficient or reliable in all likelihood but nations have gone to war without Starlink. Ukraine still can if they start preparing yesterday for that eventuality. (If they have not already which is a big assumption). I also don't see the lack of Starlink stopping the Ukes from Crimea if that is indeed the final plan. So the scenario is probably moot anyways as I imagine the Ukes will do just that.

Rossticus said:

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Wellll, Musk is now a liability.

Elon Musk denied a Ukrainian 🇺🇦 request to enable the use of Starlink in Russian-occupied Crimea

Musk says he fears a Ukrainian offensive could start a nuclear war

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) October 12, 2022

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He's the #1 reason why Ukraine has turned the tide in this war. Calling him a liability is absurd. Hell, a few months ago you would have called him a Russian agent the way you railed on anyone thinking objectively.

Do you think Putin will start launching nukes if they go after Crimea? It sure looks that way to me and Putin has nothing to lose. Musk's only fault here is that he believes what Putin says he will do.

Ags4DaWin said:

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Rossticus said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Rossticus said:

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The problem becomes, what are Musks limits if pressed by Russia? Would he disclose data to Russia or limit Ukraine's usage of Starlink in order to cover his ass? Will he get people killed if he deems it to be in his best financial interests?

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He gave them an internet connection. If Ukraine is beating Russia because of an internet connection then this world is screwed.

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If it weren't for the fact that the Ukrainian military was using it for comms I'd agree. Comms are huge and have been a significant advantage in favor the Ukrainians. If they lose that advantage without a reasonably comparable replacement solution then that'll be of tremendous benefit to Russia.

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If they haven't been working on a replacement or supplement to the gift Musk gave them then they seriously misspent the 15 billion we gave them.

A huge tactical mistake.

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It's pretty clearly not that simple, but yeah go ahead and act like they've wasted the money and supplies we've given them as they not only stopped the advance of the Russian army, but have taken back ~half of the occupied territory so far. Not bad for an army that was outmanned and outgunned. A lot of what Ukraine has recieved is equipment and not money, and interestingly enough it's hard to build entire new sets of infrastructure when your existing infrastructure is being actively blown up... IN 6 MONTHS. Besides, how much money should it cost to stop the Russian army and keep the country from collapse and build this new infrastructure?

I think people overestimate the value of starlink, but it has enough value that Elon alone should not get to decide how to limit their access - this is a national security issue. I also think it's ridiculous that everybody has to mention how smart Elon Musk is even when they are talking about how dumb something he did was. Either Elon Musk has become a Russian asset (only people who parrot Russian propoganda would ever call Crimea "Krushev's mistake") or he's a useful idiot. At the end of the day, his need to insert himself into the middle and declare himself as an arbiter of this conflict when he's clearly not capable or qualified is a problem. And it's a problem nobody should excuse or defend.