Update:

Local sources are now reporting that the fire was caused by the 'accidental detonation of an S-300 missile'.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/INJJ1HbC52

— WhereisRussiaToday (@WhereisRussia) October 10, 2022

Confirmed: the local area has been completely evacuated.

This response to the fire would suggest that the damage caused is significant or that further explosions may occur.#Russia #Ukraine

— WhereisRussiaToday (@WhereisRussia) October 10, 2022

FriscoKid said:

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Any sites estimate the number of shells being launched daily by Russia? I suspect that it's dropped off quite a bit over the past month due to Ukraine hitting logistics and depots.

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Here you go. Saw this last night. Not sure I completely understand it yet though.

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/p_q301bo7axc?s=meEJMPDpGWQ

sclaff said:

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Just for entertainment purposes.... but if it was a missile strike I'd probably wouldn't stop the truck bomb speculation.

Those videos need at least another minute more released to show the bridge after the smoke cleared

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There is cctv footage of the explosion from before until after the smoke clears

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3327982

That's a good site!


Total losses of everything since the start of the war (many are 100% losses)

ABATTBQ11 said:

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FireAg said:

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Think so? I get a different read...

I don't think NATO or Russia are going to back down...this proxy-war between East/West being waged in Ukraine will escalate beyond Ukrainian borders, in my opinion...

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This is Russia's Vietnam. It will stay local, and probably only spill into Belarus as they're a Russian vassal state and providing material assistance. Russians like a strong leader and expansion, but they don't tolerate failure. Putin has a lot of goodwill built up over the years because he's been good at the former so far, but he's bitten off now then he can chew and flirting with the latter.

Russia can't afford conflict anywhere else. They don't have the manpower or the equipment. They also couldn't go toe to toe with NATO and its full arsenal. Right now, NATO's donation box and a free years of training for Ukrainians in NATO tactics is giving Russia all they can handle. They went in with 150k-200k men and getting their **** beaten in. Ukraine is relatively new to the game and didn't even have all the tools. NATO was built to destroy Russia and could employ 5th gen fighters and bombers, countless more HIMARS, Western tanks, more advanced AA systems, and utilize professional militaries with decades of experience on these platforms, along with the tactics and strategy that Ukraine had barely begin to scratch the surface of.

An expansion beyond Ukraine is the last thing Russia can afford.

---

Big difference.

Vietnam was half way around the world.

Ukraine is on their border. More like a Texas seceding and the USA claiming part of it. I wish it was another Afghanistan for them but this is a line in the sand for the country of Russia. Going to be a brutal winter for Ukraine and Europe.

These are the questions the people still in awe of Russia never answer. They are a broken down shell of their former selves.

AgLA06 said:

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PA24 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Think so? I get a different read...

I don't think NATO or Russia are going to back down...this proxy-war between East/West being waged in Ukraine will escalate beyond Ukrainian borders, in my opinion...

---

This is Russia's Vietnam. It will stay local, and probably only spill into Belarus as they're a Russian vassal state and providing material assistance. Russians like a strong leader and expansion, but they don't tolerate failure. Putin has a lot of goodwill built up over the years because he's been good at the former so far, but he's bitten off now then he can chew and flirting with the latter.

Russia can't afford conflict anywhere else. They don't have the manpower or the equipment. They also couldn't go toe to toe with NATO and its full arsenal. Right now, NATO's donation box and a free years of training for Ukrainians in NATO tactics is giving Russia all they can handle. They went in with 150k-200k men and getting their **** beaten in. Ukraine is relatively new to the game and didn't even have all the tools. NATO was built to destroy Russia and could employ 5th gen fighters and bombers, countless more HIMARS, Western tanks, more advanced AA systems, and utilize professional militaries with decades of experience on these platforms, along with the tactics and strategy that Ukraine had barely begin to scratch the surface of.

An expansion beyond Ukraine is the last thing Russia can afford.

---

Big difference.

Vietnam was half way around the world.

Ukraine is on their border. More like a Texas seceding and the USA claiming part of it. I wish it was another Afghanistan for them but this is a line in the sand for the country of Russia. Going to be a brutal winter for Ukraine and Europe.

---

How do you see this situation getting better for Russia?

They've lost most of their best troops and equipment. They're literally pulling T-62 out of storage. They can't clothe or provide non-rusted weapons to drafted soldiers. They don't even have basic medical kits or backpacks. Time appears to be on Ukraine's side in this war.

While it may be an expensive winter in Europe, it's going to be miserable for untrained Russian troops freezing to death trying to hold Ukrainian ground while mechanized troops flank them.

---

I don't see them backing down, this is now bigger than Putin. They will eventually throw enough troops into the grinder and secure the east, they have grain and they have fuel, winter will not be harsh for the citizens.
They also can call up to 25,000,000 soldiers and they will.

FriscoKid said:

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Any sites estimate the number of shells being launched daily by Russia? I suspect that it's dropped off quite a bit over the past month due to Ukraine hitting logistics and depots.

---

I'm not sure about sites tracking the exact number of shells fired. I know from following sources on Twitter that there's been almost nightly shelling of Kharkiv, Sumy, Zap, and Mykolaiv oblasts but the numbers of shells launched each day is rarely reported. Based on reporting it seems as though they are attempting to cluster certain specific targets each time. They have been using many S300 ground to air missiles as ground to ground missiles. They are highly inaccurate.

I think that makes today's salvo even more significant as they were attempting to use their best precision weapons. These are missiles that are likely running quite low in stock. I think we can assume they are low in stock because they were rarely used over the summer and one would think their precision would have been valuable during the counteroffensives. It had been quite a while since they had fired any Kalibr or Kh-101s.

⚡️ Russian ships are reloaded and left for the Black Sea. Also, the takeoff of aviation in Astrakhan is being prepared, warns the head of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, Vitalii Kim.

👉 Follow @Flash_news_ua

— FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) October 10, 2022

Teslag said:

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These are the questions the people still in awe of Russia never answer. They are a broken down shell of their former selves.

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But they still possess a formidable arsenal of nukes. That is the ONLY reason they have any play on the world stage.

⚡️ Map of missile strikes in Ukraine as of 1:30 p.m., October 10.

👉 Follow @Flash_news_ua pic.twitter.com/ISF3COnOVI

— FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) October 10, 2022

Rare footage of Ukrainian RAM II loitering munition striking a Russian Osa SAM system in the South.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/hP4W9Ts1Tj

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) October 10, 2022

Putin is trying to do 2 things right now: make Ukraine suffer enough that they will consider conceding something that Russian leadership could construe as a win to their own population, and show any potential satellite nation or breakaway republic what could happen to them if they defy the Kremlin while Russia is weakened.

FriscoKid said:

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A Russian cluster of military equipment was destroyed by GMLRS missiles of the AFU. pic.twitter.com/46oGynzloE

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 10, 2022

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8 months of sustained combat and russians have yet to understand the concept of disbursement and matters not in armor or on foot, to the individual or the MFIC. Completely inept with the exception of atrocities against civilians.

Sorry tried to find twitter source to no avail.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/y0acox/russian_soldiers_in_eastern_ukraine_reportedly/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Teslag said:

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PA24 said:

---

AgLA06 said:

---

PA24 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Think so? I get a different read...

I don't think NATO or Russia are going to back down...this proxy-war between East/West being waged in Ukraine will escalate beyond Ukrainian borders, in my opinion...

---

This is Russia's Vietnam. It will stay local, and probably only spill into Belarus as they're a Russian vassal state and providing material assistance. Russians like a strong leader and expansion, but they don't tolerate failure. Putin has a lot of goodwill built up over the years because he's been good at the former so far, but he's bitten off now then he can chew and flirting with the latter.

Russia can't afford conflict anywhere else. They don't have the manpower or the equipment. They also couldn't go toe to toe with NATO and its full arsenal. Right now, NATO's donation box and a free years of training for Ukrainians in NATO tactics is giving Russia all they can handle. They went in with 150k-200k men and getting their **** beaten in. Ukraine is relatively new to the game and didn't even have all the tools. NATO was built to destroy Russia and could employ 5th gen fighters and bombers, countless more HIMARS, Western tanks, more advanced AA systems, and utilize professional militaries with decades of experience on these platforms, along with the tactics and strategy that Ukraine had barely begin to scratch the surface of.

An expansion beyond Ukraine is the last thing Russia can afford.

---

Big difference.

Vietnam was half way around the world.

Ukraine is on their border. More like a Texas seceding and the USA claiming part of it. I wish it was another Afghanistan for them but this is a line in the sand for the country of Russia. Going to be a brutal winter for Ukraine and Europe.

---

How do you see this situation getting better for Russia?

They've lost most of their best troops and equipment. They're literally pulling T-62 out of storage. They can't clothe or provide non-rusted weapons to drafted soldiers. They don't even have basic medical kits or backpacks. Time appears to be on Ukraine's side in this war.

While it may be an expensive winter in Europe, it's going to be miserable for untrained Russian troops freezing to death trying to hold Ukrainian ground while mechanized troops flank them.

---

I don't see them backing down, this is now bigger than Putin. They will eventually throw enough troops into the grinder and secure the east, they have grain and they have fuel, winter will not be harsh for the citizens.
They also can call up to 25,000,000 soldiers and they will.

---

Call them up and arm them with what? Clothe them with what? Move them with what? Protect them with what?

---

According to one of the members of the Duma, faith in each other, their commanders, and the motherland.

A known Belarussian 🇧🇾 source tells me:

“Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers are entering Belarus 🇧🇾 by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.”

— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) October 10, 2022

#Ukraine: Ukrainian forces captured a Russian BPM-97 Vystrel Kamaz-43269 APC. First one lost by Russia during the war. pic.twitter.com/L314tI6Enl

— Arslon Xudosi 🇺🇦 (@Arslon_Xudosi) October 10, 2022

PA24 said:

---

AgLA06 said:

---

PA24 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

FireAg said:

---

Think so? I get a different read...

I don't think NATO or Russia are going to back down...this proxy-war between East/West being waged in Ukraine will escalate beyond Ukrainian borders, in my opinion...

---

This is Russia's Vietnam. It will stay local, and probably only spill into Belarus as they're a Russian vassal state and providing material assistance. Russians like a strong leader and expansion, but they don't tolerate failure. Putin has a lot of goodwill built up over the years because he's been good at the former so far, but he's bitten off now then he can chew and flirting with the latter.

Russia can't afford conflict anywhere else. They don't have the manpower or the equipment. They also couldn't go toe to toe with NATO and its full arsenal. Right now, NATO's donation box and a free years of training for Ukrainians in NATO tactics is giving Russia all they can handle. They went in with 150k-200k men and getting their **** beaten in. Ukraine is relatively new to the game and didn't even have all the tools. NATO was built to destroy Russia and could employ 5th gen fighters and bombers, countless more HIMARS, Western tanks, more advanced AA systems, and utilize professional militaries with decades of experience on these platforms, along with the tactics and strategy that Ukraine had barely begin to scratch the surface of.

An expansion beyond Ukraine is the last thing Russia can afford.

---

Big difference.

Vietnam was half way around the world.

Ukraine is on their border. More like a Texas seceding and the USA claiming part of it. I wish it was another Afghanistan for them but this is a line in the sand for the country of Russia. Going to be a brutal winter for Ukraine and Europe.

---

How do you see this situation getting better for Russia?

They've lost most of their best troops and equipment. They're literally pulling T-62 out of storage. They can't clothe or provide non-rusted weapons to drafted soldiers. They don't even have basic medical kits or backpacks. Time appears to be on Ukraine's side in this war.

While it may be an expensive winter in Europe, it's going to be miserable for untrained Russian troops freezing to death trying to hold Ukrainian ground while mechanized troops flank them.

---

I don't see them backing down, this is now bigger than Putin. They will eventually throw enough troops into the grinder and secure the east, they have grain and they have fuel, winter will not be harsh for the citizens.
They also can call up to 25,000,000 soldiers and they will.

---

I don't think this is bigger than Putin and his inner circle. They are having issues calling up 300k, wouldn't 25 million be tougher? Actually expand that draft to Moscow / St Petersburg and I would think nationalism would abate.

Teslag said:

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Don't go into hysterics. People are asking you legitimate questions about how Russia will equip soldiers on a modern battlefield. It's no longer 1944. A horde of ill equipped soldiers can be quickly decimated with modern weapons.

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I believe the last 30 days have been devastating to the Russians but it is still Russia, predicting their demise is a little premature. Both sides will dig in for the winter, a winter than will see temps drop to below -20F. Big advantage to the Russians as they regroup and prepare for a spring campaign, slaughtering of the masses on both sides. I also don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainians. Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

I cant see Russia walking away from Ukraine, not after all the damage they have done. Nope, they are in it for the long haul. As far as the draft dodgers, not a lot of options for them once they think it thru. That has pretty much died down has it not?

Winter is coming, both sides digging in but the shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure has just really begun.

I am not a fan of Putin and hope they kill him but don't think it matters anymore, about to become an all out war with Ukraine.

I am a backer of Elon's proposal for peace.

How do you see this ending?

Private PoopyPants said:

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A known Belarussian 🇧🇾 source tells me:

“Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers are entering Belarus 🇧🇾 by the trainload. They’re traveling in cattle cars - just a huge quantity. Just waves of trains arriving.”

— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) October 10, 2022

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Going to re-open a second front to try to relieve pressure on the east?