Robk said:

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Do rail bridges use rock/gravel like built up tracks?

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Yes they do. They are called ballast deck bridges and are preferred over open deck bridges because much easier to level track (rails).

It is very possible with the right crews and equipment to make track repairs of this length that quickly. Not saying this pic is legit of first train but it could have been taken from well before or after the repairs.

Hopefully the heat has weakened the steel enough, that a few cycles has a upcoming catastrophic failure, but this also wishful thinking.

Just a thought, but if we did actually see a boat/drone underneath the bridge then maybe it's purpose was to coordinate the remote explosion of the truck bomb at a particular spot on the bridge (like near the fuel tank cars) for maximum effect? Seems like we would have heard something if a drone was involved.

Interesting question.

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The Kerch bridge was yet another way in which Putin doled out his political favors for those who supported his tsarist impulses. That same dynamic played out in the supposed "modernization" of Russia's military. Putin et al have spent years building up the sophistication and capabilities of the Russian army, fueled by the supposed massive infrastructural investments from Putin's oligarch cronies. Instead, what has become apparent is that the military has been starved of materiel, training, and talent while Putin's pals have enriched themselves to obscene levels.

And all of that money, which could have gone into improving the lives of ordinary Russians as Troianovski pointed out in 2018, has not even given them a decent and capable system of national defense.

Russia announced that one side of the road bridge has reopened, but it may not be for long, as an explosion like that would likely have destabilized the foundation on both sides. Plus, what Russia really needs for supply into Crimea is the rail bridge. The Russian army relies heavily on rail for its supply and communication lines, and it's no coincidence that the Kerch bridge system included rail from the beginning. The damage on that line looks like it could take weeks to clear even under the best conditions, let alone repair.

Repair, by the way, is no sure thing at this point. Putin will have to spend billions of dollars he doesn't have in a wartime environment to fix what may end up being his last significant line of communication with Crimea. Where does that money come from, and where does he find the labor? How does Putin even get the materials? Now that the Kerch bridge has proven vulnerable, any money they do spend on repairing it might be wasted in another attack.

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That would either force Putin to begin sailing his ships into the area again to provide relief, where Ukrainian forces have proven adept at sinking Russian ships, or leave them cut off for an indefinite period while Russian tries to force its land communications open again in a new offensive. All of these are options that would strain even a von Clausewitz, but then again, a von Clausewitz wouldn't have been caught in this kind of incompetent failure in the first place.

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Via Hot Air

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Hopefully the heat has weakened the steel enough, that a few cycles has a upcoming catastrophic failure, but this also wishful thinking.

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If the heat caused soft spots in the girders then that very well could lead to a crack initiation leading to fatigue fracture failure, especially given the stresses that are present at the points in the girders nearest the flame. Interesting thought.

Side question - anybody else take Dr. Walter Bradley's Mechanical Metallurgy class back in the 80's - 90's? He started every class with a horror story about failures caused by events much like this. One of my favorites from MEEN.

aggiehawg said:

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Structural engineer' twitter thread with his observations.

The Kerch Strait bridge has been struck by an explosion.

Leaving aside the military implications to other experts (and plausible deniability for Ukraine), let’s look again at the structural engineering implications for this bridge and outcomes for the rest of the war (1/x) https://t.co/wBPwRmVHZx

— Zahed Amanullah (@zahed) October 8, 2022

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Great breakdown, but my one issue is he compares the damage done by himar rockets on the other bridge as evidence against a top down attack. The problem is those rockets at largest carry like a 500lb warhead. Then look at the blast made by the OKC bomb which was 7k lbs of anfo (non-ideal high explosive) explosives which have about half the blasting force per lb as more ideal high explosives like RDX and HMX more commonly found in military explosives. The blast that could be generated from a truck bomb with high explosives is simple 1-2 orders or magnitude larger than what a rocket can do. Using the firecracker/hand example, yes, you can maybe open palm a black cat and receive minimal damage, but if you open palm a stick of dynamite your hand will just be gone. A semi truck could absolutely contain enough explosive to deflect the road deck down to the point of critical failure, especially if the blast was mid span. I'm not saying that is for sure what happened (though looking at everything I personally think the truck bomb is the most likely explanation), but it is for sure doable with that setup when you think of how much explosive you could get in that truck.

Edit to cut out all but one twitter link
Edit 2 to correct my explosives terminology
edit 3: one final add on then i'll be done

for scale comparison, MOAB has a payload of ~11 tons of TNT, which is similar in scale to what you could get in this truck. at 300 ' away it its pressure wave is still generating 20 psi overpressure. if you apply that to the road deck, one side of the deck is roughly 40' wide, so a 10' long section that is 40' wide would suddenly have over 1 MM lbs of extra downward force, and that's using the 300 ft away number. Just pointing out the magnitude of what could be generated by a truck bomb done right.

ANFO IS a high explosive.

Excalibur is used in #Kherson region. pic.twitter.com/WG7VoXvtC8

— Smart Ukrainian Cat (@SmartUACat) October 8, 2022

KERCH BRIDGE/ DAMAGE ASSESSMENT/ At 0607 Local time, an explosion occurred on a bridge pier supporting road sections of the span linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. Preliminary BDA indicates precise explosive placement; a UKR Naval Special Warfare op cannot be ruled out. pic.twitter.com/cyq9o3IIhJ

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 8, 2022

ABATTBQ11 said:

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ANFO IS a high explosive.

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thanks for the correction, i'll fix it in my post above. was mixing up terminology in my head and comparing to more commonly used HEs like RDX and HMX. vs non-ideal high explosives like anfo and annm

Huh. How about that.

Waffledynamics said:

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KERCH BRIDGE/ DAMAGE ASSESSMENT/ At 0607 Local time, an explosion occurred on a bridge pier supporting road sections of the span linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. Preliminary BDA indicates precise explosive placement; a UKR Naval Special Warfare op cannot be ruled out. pic.twitter.com/cyq9o3IIhJ

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 8, 2022

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I believe this. If you look at the first video of the two, both the car passing the truck and the truck survive. The cars driving to the camera survive but appear to drive through the fireball.

It looks like the explosion was just behind the truck and car driving away and the high winds blew the fireball across the bridge.

Clarification requested please - are they coming into port or leaving? Fight or flight?

Couldn't tell from the twitter replies I read

sclaff said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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KERCH BRIDGE/ DAMAGE ASSESSMENT/ At 0607 Local time, an explosion occurred on a bridge pier supporting road sections of the span linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. Preliminary BDA indicates precise explosive placement; a UKR Naval Special Warfare op cannot be ruled out. pic.twitter.com/cyq9o3IIhJ

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 8, 2022

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I believe this. If you look at the first video of the two, both the car passing the truck and the truck survive. The cars driving to the camera survive but appear to drive through the fireball.

It looks like the explosion was just behind the truck and car driving away and the high winds blew the fireball across the bridge.

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/08/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-nuclear-threat-zaporizhzhia/

People in the truck with the bomb and the car next to it are dead.

Russia is saying it was a truck bomb but I'll take anything coming from Russian mouths with a mountain of salt.

Here's a picture of the railway bridge while it was under construction. Maybe some of our resident engineers can comment on how redundant this structure is?



Also

Wagner affiliated channel GREY ZONE posting the Shoigu and Gerasimov have been ousted. Very unconfirmed at this time, but the first non-Ukrainian report I have seen of something being up in Moscow today.https://t.co/GdGpelJVKr pic.twitter.com/giGJ0fnxgQ

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) October 8, 2022

tremble said:

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Russia is saying it was a truck bomb but I'll take anything coming from Russian mouths with a mountain of salt.

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Nothing in the videos of the explosion nor the damage afterward appears to me to be consistent with "the" truck that's visible in the videos.

And, sorry if this has been mentioned already, but the road deck that's collapsed and the adjacent road decks still intact…I'm not seeing much or any scorching or damage on them, which you would expect if the explosion came from a vehicle driving on them.

I'm not sure the Russians know exactly what happened at this point, but I think suicide truck bomb is a pretty easy thing to run with and sounds a lot less sophisticated and a lot more barbarous and terroristic than a remote control boat or something like that

He also entrusted the Federal Security Service with the authority to organize the protection of the Kerch bridge.

👉 Follow @Flash_news_ua

— FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) October 8, 2022

The first ferry with heavy cargo will be sent from Kerch at 20:00-20:30 Moscow time, adviser to the head of Crimea. "The preparationfor the crossing is completed," Kryuchkov wrote. pic.twitter.com/xgNNmPOf2t

— NOËL 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 8, 2022

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Some ambitious officials have seen opportunity in the chaos, pitching to the Kremlin on ways to turn around a failing war and a botched mobilisation. Others are lying low, seeking to hold on to power or avoid punishment. Western intelligence agencies have reported high levels of dissatisfaction among the Russian army and in the country's elite. Some have even suggested a coup could take place.

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Two of Vladimir Putin's most notorious lieutenants, Prigozhin and the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, have openly declared war against the defence minister, Putin loyalist Sergei Shoigu, and his top generals following a series of disastrous defeats that have left Russia's army in retreat. …

According to a former senior defence official who worked with Shoigu and Prigozhin, the rivalry between the two men is a longstanding feud that goes back to the founding of Wagner in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. It was exacerbated, the person said, when Shoigu recently fired deputy defence minister Dmitry Bulgakov, an official who had reportedly helped Prigozhin obtain lucrative contracts supplying the army.

"Prigozhin will now be out for revenge against Shoigu," that person said. He described Prigozhin as a person with "no morals, no conscience, and no hobbies … He is a machine in the bad sense of the word."

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Via Hot Air

AgLA06 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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The first ferry with heavy cargo will be sent from Kerch at 20:00-20:30 Moscow time, adviser to the head of Crimea. "The preparationfor the crossing is completed," Kryuchkov wrote. pic.twitter.com/xgNNmPOf2t

— NOËL 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 8, 2022

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They might as well said. Ukrainian's next target will begin operations....

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That's what I was thinking. Schedule, same place every trip.

Who wouldn't be excited to be on that vessel's crew? That's a fast lane ticket to the next life.

Energoatom head Petro Kotin said the diesel generators have a limited supply of fuel. “If (the generators) run out of fuel, after that they will stop, and after that there will be a disaster,” Kotin said.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 8, 2022

First reactions from top Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov: pic.twitter.com/ReksSGb40B

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 8, 2022

The media write about the transfer of tanks, but most likely we are talking about the BMP-1

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) October 8, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Energoatom head Petro Kotin said the diesel generators have a limited supply of fuel. “If (the generators) run out of fuel, after that they will stop, and after that there will be a disaster,” Kotin said.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 8, 2022

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IIRC, all the reactors there have been shut down, so does that not prevent it becoming a disaster?