Robk said:
Do rail bridges use rock/gravel like built up tracks?
Quote:
The Kerch bridge was yet another way in which Putin doled out his political favors for those who supported his tsarist impulses. That same dynamic played out in the supposed "modernization" of Russia's military. Putin et al have spent years building up the sophistication and capabilities of the Russian army, fueled by the supposed massive infrastructural investments from Putin's oligarch cronies. Instead, what has become apparent is that the military has been starved of materiel, training, and talent while Putin's pals have enriched themselves to obscene levels.
And all of that money, which could have gone into improving the lives of ordinary Russians as Troianovski pointed out in 2018, has not even given them a decent and capable system of national defense.
Russia announced that one side of the road bridge has reopened, but it may not be for long, as an explosion like that would likely have destabilized the foundation on both sides. Plus, what Russia really needs for supply into Crimea is the rail bridge. The Russian army relies heavily on rail for its supply and communication lines, and it's no coincidence that the Kerch bridge system included rail from the beginning. The damage on that line looks like it could take weeks to clear even under the best conditions, let alone repair.
Repair, by the way, is no sure thing at this point. Putin will have to spend billions of dollars he doesn't have in a wartime environment to fix what may end up being his last significant line of communication with Crimea. Where does that money come from, and where does he find the labor? How does Putin even get the materials? Now that the Kerch bridge has proven vulnerable, any money they do spend on repairing it might be wasted in another attack.
Via Hot AirQuote:
That would either force Putin to begin sailing his ships into the area again to provide relief, where Ukrainian forces have proven adept at sinking Russian ships, or leave them cut off for an indefinite period while Russian tries to force its land communications open again in a new offensive. All of these are options that would strain even a von Clausewitz, but then again, a von Clausewitz wouldn't have been caught in this kind of incompetent failure in the first place.
If the heat caused soft spots in the girders then that very well could lead to a crack initiation leading to fatigue fracture failure, especially given the stresses that are present at the points in the girders nearest the flame. Interesting thought.Quote:
Hopefully the heat has weakened the steel enough, that a few cycles has a upcoming catastrophic failure, but this also wishful thinking.
The first cars moving on the Kerch Bridge again, going from Crimea to Russia.
— The Mad Hatter (@GeraldAvery17) October 8, 2022
🇺🇸Join Us👉 @SGTnewsNetwork pic.twitter.com/xiwEhG1DlV
Off ramp. Use it.Quote:
Yeah, get out of Crimea folks.
aggiehawg said:
Structural engineer' twitter thread with his observations.The Kerch Strait bridge has been struck by an explosion.
— Zahed Amanullah (@zahed) October 8, 2022
Leaving aside the military implications to other experts (and plausible deniability for Ukraine), let’s look again at the structural engineering implications for this bridge and outcomes for the rest of the war (1/x) https://t.co/wBPwRmVHZx
Excalibur is used in #Kherson region. pic.twitter.com/WG7VoXvtC8
— Smart Ukrainian Cat (@SmartUACat) October 8, 2022
KERCH BRIDGE/ DAMAGE ASSESSMENT/ At 0607 Local time, an explosion occurred on a bridge pier supporting road sections of the span linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. Preliminary BDA indicates precise explosive placement; a UKR Naval Special Warfare op cannot be ruled out. pic.twitter.com/cyq9o3IIhJ
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 8, 2022
thanks for the correction, i'll fix it in my post above. was mixing up terminology in my head and comparing to more commonly used HEs like RDX and HMX. vs non-ideal high explosives like anfo and annmABATTBQ11 said:
ANFO IS a high explosive.
I believe this. If you look at the first video of the two, both the car passing the truck and the truck survive. The cars driving to the camera survive but appear to drive through the fireball.Waffledynamics said:KERCH BRIDGE/ DAMAGE ASSESSMENT/ At 0607 Local time, an explosion occurred on a bridge pier supporting road sections of the span linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. Preliminary BDA indicates precise explosive placement; a UKR Naval Special Warfare op cannot be ruled out. pic.twitter.com/cyq9o3IIhJ
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 8, 2022
***UPDATE***
— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) October 8, 2022
Here -> https://t.co/u6CjAoimy9
Increased #Russian Navy activity in Sevastopol, Crimea, today. Very different picture to past few weeks.
Likely result of attack on #KerchBridge this morning. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/Sl2zg93VJx
sclaff said:I believe this. If you look at the first video of the two, both the car passing the truck and the truck survive. The cars driving to the camera survive but appear to drive through the fireball.Waffledynamics said:KERCH BRIDGE/ DAMAGE ASSESSMENT/ At 0607 Local time, an explosion occurred on a bridge pier supporting road sections of the span linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. Preliminary BDA indicates precise explosive placement; a UKR Naval Special Warfare op cannot be ruled out. pic.twitter.com/cyq9o3IIhJ
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 8, 2022
It looks like the explosion was just behind the truck and car driving away and the high winds blew the fireball across the bridge.
Wagner affiliated channel GREY ZONE posting the Shoigu and Gerasimov have been ousted. Very unconfirmed at this time, but the first non-Ukrainian report I have seen of something being up in Moscow today.https://t.co/GdGpelJVKr pic.twitter.com/giGJ0fnxgQ
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) October 8, 2022
tremble said:
Russia is saying it was a truck bomb but I'll take anything coming from Russian mouths with a mountain of salt.
He also entrusted the Federal Security Service with the authority to organize the protection of the Kerch bridge.
— FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) October 8, 2022
👉 Follow @Flash_news_ua
The first ferry with heavy cargo will be sent from Kerch at 20:00-20:30 Moscow time, adviser to the head of Crimea. "The preparationfor the crossing is completed," Kryuchkov wrote. pic.twitter.com/xgNNmPOf2t
— NOËL 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 8, 2022
aggiehawg said:The first ferry with heavy cargo will be sent from Kerch at 20:00-20:30 Moscow time, adviser to the head of Crimea. "The preparationfor the crossing is completed," Kryuchkov wrote. pic.twitter.com/xgNNmPOf2t
— NOËL 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 8, 2022
Quote:
Some ambitious officials have seen opportunity in the chaos, pitching to the Kremlin on ways to turn around a failing war and a botched mobilisation. Others are lying low, seeking to hold on to power or avoid punishment. Western intelligence agencies have reported high levels of dissatisfaction among the Russian army and in the country's elite. Some have even suggested a coup could take place.
Via Hot AirQuote:
Two of Vladimir Putin's most notorious lieutenants, Prigozhin and the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, have openly declared war against the defence minister, Putin loyalist Sergei Shoigu, and his top generals following a series of disastrous defeats that have left Russia's army in retreat. …
According to a former senior defence official who worked with Shoigu and Prigozhin, the rivalry between the two men is a longstanding feud that goes back to the founding of Wagner in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. It was exacerbated, the person said, when Shoigu recently fired deputy defence minister Dmitry Bulgakov, an official who had reportedly helped Prigozhin obtain lucrative contracts supplying the army.
"Prigozhin will now be out for revenge against Shoigu," that person said. He described Prigozhin as a person with "no morals, no conscience, and no hobbies … He is a machine in the bad sense of the word."
— Mykhailo Fedorov (@FedorovMykhailo) October 8, 2022
AgLA06 said:aggiehawg said:The first ferry with heavy cargo will be sent from Kerch at 20:00-20:30 Moscow time, adviser to the head of Crimea. "The preparationfor the crossing is completed," Kryuchkov wrote. pic.twitter.com/xgNNmPOf2t
— NOËL 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 8, 2022
They might as well said. Ukrainian's next target will begin operations....
Energoatom head Petro Kotin said the diesel generators have a limited supply of fuel. “If (the generators) run out of fuel, after that they will stop, and after that there will be a disaster,” Kotin said.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 8, 2022
First reactions from top Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov: pic.twitter.com/ReksSGb40B
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 8, 2022
The media write about the transfer of tanks, but most likely we are talking about the BMP-1
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) October 8, 2022
IIRC, all the reactors there have been shut down, so does that not prevent it becoming a disaster?Rossticus said:Energoatom head Petro Kotin said the diesel generators have a limited supply of fuel. “If (the generators) run out of fuel, after that they will stop, and after that there will be a disaster,” Kotin said.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 8, 2022