deddog said:
So the Ukes couldn't hold the line initially. Is there a real danger that they overstretch themselves as they take back territory? The Russians don't seem competent enough to launch a counter counter, but still.
Big differences between then and now. The Ukrainians were happy to trade ground for time and inflict heavy losses in the Russians while they planned and prepared for this counteroffensive. It was a true strategic withdrawal. We gave the Ukrainians HIMARS and artillery that could match the Russians, and they used it to great effect to degrade their capabilities. The Russians also lost a lot of their best troops while Ukraine was gaining experience and better weapons.
With severely degraded logistics and heavy losses, the Russians are rolling over in many areas. The Ukrainians will be able to use natural barriers to pin the Russians and/or consolidate their gains in many areas.
It's doubtful the Russians could launch a counterattack, but even if they did, the Ukrainians are smart and seem to be well organized. They've taken a lot of ground very quickly, but they're still able to supply these units and keep the offensive going. I think they'll be fine.