74OA said:
Ukraine must regain control of its southern coastline, even if it doesn't regain Crimea.
Crimea is easily isolated, but Ukraine's southlands are essential both economically--farmland and ports--and militarily since everything west of the Donbas gives Ukraine the strategic depth and internal security which are absolutely essential to resist far larger Russia in the long-term.
Ukraine has already proven it can prosper without Crimea and the breakaway Donbas republics--particularly as it has already retaken the eastern oil/gas fields--but it would be permanently crippled if it can't secure its coastal flank.
Zelensky should keep driving to get back every acre of land he can in the east, but IMO now that Kharkiv is safe the priority should be in the south.
This EXACTLY the south bank of the DNIPRO and enough buffer to keep out indirect fire/etc plus restoration of Mariupol and Melitopol.
This said I am 100% for taking back of Crimea, even as costly as it will be. Again Turkey supporting this is significant given their size and proximity and obviously over the last few years have built a much better relationship with Ukraine than russia.
As this is discussed in light of the significant gains by Ukraine, we need to keep in mind the resources available to russia in defending Crimea, which though previously falling short of expectations, is navy, air power, & land based missile systems. They have also known about the direct threat since the attacks on the air base and rail depot and if any competence at all would be bolstering its defense to include mining/pre-targeting and staging of assets while formulating battle defense plans likely not previously hashed out. They do not have to fly over hostile territory (yet) to support defense of crimea. The sacrifice of 3-5+ BTGs in Kherson is not to defend Kherson anymore but to protect Crimea.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
