benchmark said:

---

Speculation the Lyman axis may pivot north toward Svatove and bypass Kremminna.

---

How long can the Ukrainians keep up their offensive? Even at the 1:1.4 casualty ratio some have mentioned above, they will run out of manpower soon, right?

oldmanguy said:

---

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

---

I'll add that I'm also fascinated by Russia's complete failure to adapt/respond to UA tactics. The number of times we've seen that exact same maneuver show up on the map and be successful is honestly quite astonishing. I'm no military strategist, but I would think against any competent military, there would be a limit to the number of times the same tactic can be successful.

---

The Ukes are using small units to haul ass and get behind. It's even way more decentralized than anything we would ever do, it's bordering on chaotic. But riding the edge of effective and chaos is working because the Ukes have good communication.

The Russians, on the other hand, don't use the restroom without permission. They have poor/no comms and what comms they do have seem to be open for everyone to listen to. The Russians have never been good at high speed high maneuverability and they are literally getting leapfrogged to death.

Worse yet, the only way to halt this from happening over and over again would be to fall back a good bit, form some steady lines, and regroup/rearm. The russians won't do that.

---

This exactly.

oldmanguy said:

---

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

---

I'll add that I'm also fascinated by Russia's complete failure to adapt/respond to UA tactics. The number of times we've seen that exact same maneuver show up on the map and be successful is honestly quite astonishing. I'm no military strategist, but I would think against any competent military, there would be a limit to the number of times the same tactic can be successful.

---

The Ukes are using small units to haul ass and get behind. It's even way more decentralized than anything we would ever do, it's bordering on chaotic. But riding the edge of effective and chaos is working because the Ukes have good communication.

The Russians, on the other hand, don't use the restroom without permission. They have poor/no comms and what comms they do have seem to be open for everyone to listen to. The Russians have never been good at high speed high maneuverability and they are literally getting leapfrogged to death.

Worse yet, the only way to halt this from happening over and over again would be to fall back a good bit, form some steady lines, and regroup/rearm. The russians won't do that.

---

Yea, I guess despite there being an overwhelming body of evidence saying this won't happen, there is a small part of me (probably the part that has been conditioned by watching Aggie football), that keeps half expecting Russia to get their act together and catch the Ukes over extended on one of these pushes and slam the door behind them.

javajaws said:

---

No Spin Ag said:

---

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

---

Teslag said:

---

10 years? It may be fascinating reading by next summer at this rate.

---

True, but a real comprehensive book with eye witness accounts both military and civilian will take some time. Even 5 years based on this thing still unfolding. Imagine the details about the russian equipment, soldiers and command.

---

Whenever it comes out, the failure of Putin's invasion will be a great read that'll be read my many throughout the world as an example of what happens when a tinpot dictator tries to bully someone that punches back.

---

I think more than anything this is direct proof that Soviet style communism just doesn't work. Sure, you can somewhat run a country like that. But just like how it makes your economy suffer it also makes your military suffer as well. And it's not just because of the corruption, but also because of the lack of trust, accountability, responsibility, innovation, etc. NOTHING good comes from communism...unless you are one of the communists in charge and are in on the grift.

---

Couldn't agree more, and when the person at the top is a dictator, like Putin is, it just takes all the problems that Russia has on a typical bad day and cranks it to 11.

If Putin had just left all enough alone and acted like any European or NATO nation, his country would be in better shape. Now it's looking like it'll take generations upon generations of time to fix every problem he created.

Gaius Julius Bevo said:

---

benchmark said:

---

Speculation the Lyman axis may pivot north toward Svatove and bypass Kremminna.

---

How long can the Ukrainians keep up their offensive? Even at the 1:1.4 casualty ratio some have mentioned above, they will run out of manpower soon, right?

---

According to some OSINT stuff they have about a half to full division that hasn't been put into the fight yet. There was a lot of speculation when the Ukes started clearing mine fields in the SE that we would see another offensive to the South but it hasn't appeared and they may have been sending troops north to this operational area. Remember that the lines just West of Donetsk (city) have been fairly static since the start of the war. There are a lot of units there on both sides that have been dug in for nearly a decade in those areas.

The Ukrainians have mobilized a huge number of their people and really didn't throw them into pointless counteroffensives through much of the late spring and summer. Now they're putting them in and I bet that they push to get Svatove which will cut off Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk and if the Ukes can get that I'm not sure how far East they go before winter really sets in. There is a whole lot of not much that will be very hard to resupply East of that line to basically the Russian border. The Russians were able to overrun a lot of this area early on as the Uke's made their top priority defending Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Kherson, Mauripol and Zaporizhzhia. That and these areas that they are overrunning now were much closer to Russian center of gravity than the Ukrainians''.

Depending on how far East the Ukes get when winter sets in that whole line will be an utter nightmare of small unit fights slipping past lines ambushes, drone warfare, etc. It will be a miserable place to be for both sides.

aezmvp said:

---

Gaius Julius Bevo said:

---

benchmark said:

---

Speculation the Lyman axis may pivot north toward Svatove and bypass Kremminna.

---

How long can the Ukrainians keep up their offensive? Even at the 1:1.4 casualty ratio some have mentioned above, they will run out of manpower soon, right?

---

Remember that the lines just West of Donetsk (city) have been fairly static since the start of the war. There are a lot of units there on both sides that have been dug in for nearly a decade in those areas.

---

This specific area, west of Donetsk, will be an absolute nightmare for either side to gain without some massive flanking. That area is set up with WWI era trench lines and gaining ground will be a meat grinder. I don't expect any major push one way or another there until the near finality of action. Whover goes first will just get mauled IMO.

javajaws said:

---

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

---

oldmanguy said:

---

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

---

I'll add that I'm also fascinated by Russia's complete failure to adapt/respond to UA tactics. The number of times we've seen that exact same maneuver show up on the map and be successful is honestly quite astonishing. I'm no military strategist, but I would think against any competent military, there would be a limit to the number of times the same tactic can be successful.

---

The Ukes are using small units to haul ass and get behind. It's even way more decentralized than anything we would ever do, it's bordering on chaotic. But riding the edge of effective and chaos is working because the Ukes have good communication.

The Russians, on the other hand, don't use the restroom without permission. They have poor/no comms and what comms they do have seem to be open for everyone to listen to. The Russians have never been good at high speed high maneuverability and they are literally getting leapfrogged to death.

Worse yet, the only way to halt this from happening over and over again would be to fall back a good bit, form some steady lines, and regroup/rearm. The russians won't do that.

---

Yea, I guess despite there being an overwhelming body of evidence saying this won't happen, there is a small part of me (probably the part that has been conditioned by watching Aggie football), that keeps half expecting Russia to get their act together and catch the Ukes over extended on one of these pushes and slam the door behind them.

---

This would be the equivalent of converting the majority of democrats in this country into republicans (or vice versa). The Russians just don't think like us. They think like Russians. Communist Russians. They take orders...until they don't. They don't think...they are told. And if no one tells them to do anything the right thing to do must be to do nothing.

---

^
|
|
This guy gets it. Now throw in the paranoia that "everybody want to invade us" (in fairness, lots have, but this is 2022), and you have a formula for disaster.

aezmvp said:

---

According to some OSINT stuff they have about a half to full division that hasn't been put into the fight yet. There was a lot of speculation when the Ukes started clearing mine fields in the SE that we would see another offensive to the South but it hasn't appeared and they may have been sending troops north to this operational area. Remember that the lines just West of Donetsk (city) have been fairly static since the start of the war. There are a lot of units there on both sides that have been dug in for nearly a decade in those areas.

The Ukrainians have mobilized a huge number of their people and really didn't throw them into pointless counteroffensives through much of the late spring and summer. Now they're putting them in and I bet that they push to get Svatove which will cut off Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk and if the Ukes can get that I'm not sure how far East they go before winter really sets in. There is a whole lot of not much that will be very hard to resupply East of that line to basically the Russian border. The Russians were able to overrun a lot of this area early on as the Uke's made their top priority defending Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Kherson, Mauripol and Zaporizhzhia. That and these areas that they are overrunning now were much closer to Russian center of gravity than the Ukrainians''.

Depending on how far East the Ukes get when winter sets in that whole line will be an utter nightmare of small unit fights slipping past lines ambushes, drone warfare, etc. It will be a miserable place to be for both sides.

---

Hopefully Starolbil's'k (35 miles east of Svatove). Although possibly a bridge too far because crossing the Adair River on the west side of the city will be extremely challenging.

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

---

Yea, I guess despite there being an overwhelming body of evidence saying this won't happen, there is a small part of me (probably the part that has been conditioned by watching Aggie football), that keeps half expecting Russia to get their act together and catch the Ukes over extended on one of these pushes and slam the door behind them.

---

I call this "Battered Ukrainian Syndrome"....or BUS for short.

oldmanguy said:

---

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

---

I'll add that I'm also fascinated by Russia's complete failure to adapt/respond to UA tactics. The number of times we've seen that exact same maneuver show up on the map and be successful is honestly quite astonishing. I'm no military strategist, but I would think against any competent military, there would be a limit to the number of times the same tactic can be successful.

---

The Ukes are using small units to haul ass and get behind. It's even way more decentralized than anything we would ever do, it's bordering on chaotic. But riding the edge of effective and chaos is working because the Ukes have good communication.

The Russians, on the other hand, don't use the restroom without permission. They have poor/no comms and what comms they do have seem to be open for everyone to listen to. The Russians have never been good at high speed high maneuverability and they are literally getting leapfrogged to death.

Worse yet, the only way to halt this from happening over and over again would be to fall back a good bit, form some steady lines, and regroup/rearm. The russians won't do that.

---

John Boyd is smiling in his grave right about now...

oldmanguy said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

Gaius Julius Bevo said:

---

benchmark said:

---

Speculation the Lyman axis may pivot north toward Svatove and bypass Kremminna.

---

How long can the Ukrainians keep up their offensive? Even at the 1:1.4 casualty ratio some have mentioned above, they will run out of manpower soon, right?

---

Remember that the lines just West of Donetsk (city) have been fairly static since the start of the war. There are a lot of units there on both sides that have been dug in for nearly a decade in those areas.

---

This specific area, west of Donetsk, will be an absolute nightmare for either side to gain without some massive flanking. That area is set up with WWI era trench lines and gaining ground will be a meat grinder. I don't expect any major push one way or another there until the near finality of action. Whover goes first will just get mauled IMO.

---

So far, it seems that the Ukes are WAY more successful at the drone aspect and these dug in Russians will spend every waking moment looking up for that drone dropping grenades on them 24/7. Morale is going to be lower than whale *****

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

---

oldmanguy said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

Gaius Julius Bevo said:

---

benchmark said:

---

Speculation the Lyman axis may pivot north toward Svatove and bypass Kremminna.

---

How long can the Ukrainians keep up their offensive? Even at the 1:1.4 casualty ratio some have mentioned above, they will run out of manpower soon, right?

---

Remember that the lines just West of Donetsk (city) have been fairly static since the start of the war. There are a lot of units there on both sides that have been dug in for nearly a decade in those areas.

---

This specific area, west of Donetsk, will be an absolute nightmare for either side to gain without some massive flanking. That area is set up with WWI era trench lines and gaining ground will be a meat grinder. I don't expect any major push one way or another there until the near finality of action. Whover goes first will just get mauled IMO.

---

So far, it seems that the Ukes are WAY more successful at the drone aspect and these dug in Russians will spend every waking moment looking up for that drone dropping grenades on them 24/7. Morale is going to be lower than whale *****

---

While that's true for the most part, the Russians have made a lot of strides recently with the Iranian drones. It seems that the Ukes have added Russian drone staging areas to their list of priority targets.

Well then, hooray for satanism, I guess (Rooskie says they're fighting against pure satanism).

Quite a change of tone from Vladimir Solovyov last night

"I'd really like us to attack Kyiv and take it tomorrow, but I'm aware that the partial mobilisation will take time... For a certain period of time, things won't be easy for us. We shouldn't be expecting good news" pic.twitter.com/0FvERnOLDU

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) October 3, 2022

oldmanguy said:

---

I didn't know who John Boyd is so I looked him up.

I've learned something today.

---

Read his biography sometime, it's a helluva trip. Dude was eccentric as hell (and quite possibly full of **** 50% of the time), but there's no denying his impact on modern warfare.

Russian forces requesting urgent air support on social media on the Kherson frontline near the breakthroughs.

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) October 2, 2022

Sources are LPR collaboration authorities (Andrey Marochko)

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 3, 2022

Major advances happening simultaneously for Ukraine on two fronts 100s of kms apart. Russian military Telegram channels are increasingly in total panic. Starting to feel like the wheels are coming off for the Russian military. https://t.co/PEOVgbjmAP

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) October 3, 2022

Hold on to your butts… and hope this proves to be inaccurate.

https://t.co/0xxVkJ9uQv

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 3, 2022

Good.

Great listen:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-liberators-part-12/id1471188269?i=1000471765481

FriscoKid said:

---

Would be a shame if something happened to that train.

---

Found this tidbit in the comments. Some uncertainty still as to the purpose of the movement but still not what you'd prefer to see.

That article quotes @konrad_muzyka but leaves out the critical part of his statement about the movement of that equipment. Horrible, sensationalistic journalism by @thetimes pic.twitter.com/7YCfacHWh6

— Michael Bond (@HelloMrBond) October 3, 2022

Putin has to see that his "escalate to de-escalate" policy looks like an obvious bluff by now.

Others have noted this, but it bears repeating: these offensives don't enjoy the surprise that the Kharkiv one last month did. Here, the Russians know what is coming, and the Ukrainian army is solidly defeating them day after day. Hard to see how the bleeding stops.

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) October 3, 2022

Quote:

---

When asked to explain Russia's apparent collapse in northern Donetsk/eastern Luhansk, Hauer tweeted, "They ran out of men an issue long predicted and now very acutely felt."

I'm starting to give more credence to Kyiv's KIA claims against Russian forces. Before September, claims of 30,000-40,000 Russian dead seemed wild. More conservative estimates like from the Dupuy Institute were around 9,000-10,000. If Hauer is right, Russian losses must be at least double Dupuy's estimate.

---

Quote:

---

At this time, Russia is still trying to plug the gaps with freshly mobilized "mobiks." Theses men are older, less fit, and barely trained. Russia doesn't have a reserve system like ours, with National Guard and Army Reserve units staffed with people who work and drill together somewhat regularly. All they have is a list of men who put in a year or two as draftees sometime in the last 30 years and local "recruiters" don't always stick to the list.

These mobiks are getting sent to the front against UA troops who are now combat veterans.

---

Quote:

---

About the only place the UA isn't advancing right now is near Bakhmut, in the center. That could change quickly, though. Russia continues with futile attacks in the direction, squandering their manpower. Bakhmut has held out against Russian attacks for weeks, and continuing to attack when there are genuine crises elsewhere seems like madness.

The New York Times reported two weeks ago that Putin, apparently frustrated with his generals, has "thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks." Former spies turned thug politicians generally don't make the best battlefield commanders.

---

LINK