Pretty much. They represent the "People's Republic of Luhansk", a faux "separatist republic" that Russia falsely recognized in order to foment the conflict. Note that these people have not been classified has citizens of Russia by their government until recently with their sham referendums, and so they were denied certain benefits and considerations that Russian troops should have. They and the Donetsk troops have been heavily used as cannon fodder.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Lyman is an important crossroad, especially for rail. See this screenshot from LiveUAMap. The label for Lyman is partially obscured by that flag icon. Taking back the major rail hubs hampers Russian resupply efforts. Ukraine has been smartly targeting logistics to weaken the Russians.dtkprowler said:
Why was Lyman so important?
Agreed. The Ukrainians are closing on Severodonetsk from the west and essentially erasing the last 90 days of Russian gains in the east.
That is what I figured and good news that the collaborators are deserting en masses hopefully they can sneak across the border into Russia and never be heard from again
Private PoopyPants said:Russian Military equipment allegedly heading to Crimea. pic.twitter.com/SjE3GA1H2A
— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@tinso_ww) September 30, 2022
The Ukrainians will put this equipment to good use!
Here's a superb article from imprisoned Russian opposition leader Victor Navalny, smuggled out by his lawyers.
It is a bit long but is IMO spot on in analyzing what is broken in Russia and the most likely way to create something better.
Since a better Russia directly equates to a safer Ukraine, I don't think it is OT.
Post-Putin Russia
It is a bit long but is IMO spot on in analyzing what is broken in Russia and the most likely way to create something better.
Since a better Russia directly equates to a safer Ukraine, I don't think it is OT.
Post-Putin Russia
Thanks
The Russians sure decided to fire a lot of artillery over the last day. This is a LiveUAMap screenshot of the whole front line with occupied/contested areas in the East and South.
From ISW
The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources consistently indicate that Russian forces continued to reinforce Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, despite the recent collapse of the Kharkiv-Izyum front and even as the Russian positions around Lyman collapsed.[6] The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin's, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.
The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources consistently indicate that Russian forces continued to reinforce Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, despite the recent collapse of the Kharkiv-Izyum front and even as the Russian positions around Lyman collapsed.[6] The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin's, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.
The alternative was bypassing Lyman ... but you don't want 3-5k enemy in your rear.dtkprowler said:
Why was Lyman so important?
Red Pear Realty said:Novosibirsk, russia.
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 1, 2022
Relatives of mobilized soldiers are bringing them food while the commanders are not watching.
Hey, someone tell them that the food in Ukrainian captivity is better than in the russian army. pic.twitter.com/rFJrSJElXb
The retreat from Lyman, from reading some of the first hand reports posted above, seems to be a Turkey shoot similar to the Marianas or the Highway of Death in Iraq.
The video when releases will probably set off a wave of unrest in Russia. No one likes seeing teens or young twenty something's wholesale slaughtered.
Putin may still be calling shots but I wonder if the shots he's calling strategically are being translated into the tactical level. I don't see a way these conscripts have any will to do anything but self preservation. You MIGHT be able to defend for a bit but there is no way in hell I will believe enough conscripts will carry out an effective attack under fire.
The Russian Military has been bled white of its effective leadership and what is left is the certainty that we will see many thousands of ethnic Russians sent to die for no gain. The Ukes weathered the storm and now are able to bring superior firepower in a methodical manner to first choose the battlefield, set the order of battle to their liking, shape the field, maneuver, encircle/overrun. Rinse and repeat.
Never thought I'd see this day. I'm stunned at the ineptitude and lack of Russian leadership. They don't know their own soldier or his motivation. And those lies are costing thousands, needlessly. There is a place in hell for those men.
The video when releases will probably set off a wave of unrest in Russia. No one likes seeing teens or young twenty something's wholesale slaughtered.
Putin may still be calling shots but I wonder if the shots he's calling strategically are being translated into the tactical level. I don't see a way these conscripts have any will to do anything but self preservation. You MIGHT be able to defend for a bit but there is no way in hell I will believe enough conscripts will carry out an effective attack under fire.
The Russian Military has been bled white of its effective leadership and what is left is the certainty that we will see many thousands of ethnic Russians sent to die for no gain. The Ukes weathered the storm and now are able to bring superior firepower in a methodical manner to first choose the battlefield, set the order of battle to their liking, shape the field, maneuver, encircle/overrun. Rinse and repeat.
Never thought I'd see this day. I'm stunned at the ineptitude and lack of Russian leadership. They don't know their own soldier or his motivation. And those lies are costing thousands, needlessly. There is a place in hell for those men.
sclaff said:
From ISW
The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources consistently indicate that Russian forces continued to reinforce Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, despite the recent collapse of the Kharkiv-Izyum front and even as the Russian positions around Lyman collapsed.[6] The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin's, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.
They can back off in the east/northeast but if they can maintain the south, they can tout the "lane bridge to Crimea" as a straightforward success
sclaff said:
From ISW
The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources consistently indicate that Russian forces continued to reinforce Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, despite the recent collapse of the Kharkiv-Izyum front and even as the Russian positions around Lyman collapsed.[6] The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin's, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.
The land bridge connecting to Crimea and control of the shoreline and waters of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are paramount for Putin. Not that any given defeat is less embarrassing for him, but holding that land is tied to what he views as ensuring Russia's long term strategic position as energy provider and trade corridor to Western Europe.
The allocation of Russian manpower right now seems to be setting up a gamble that the existing forces can hang on until winter makes terrain largely impassable, allowing the conscripted forces enough time to be mobilized and create a backstop just by sheer numbers. They already know it's a war of occupation at this point, and are trying to buy time to harden positions in the south and create more of a meat grinder for the spring.
I just don't see how either side stops fighting. At least with current Russian leadership.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Russian forces were routed and not a planned or organized retrograde/retreat. At least from how this reads. We will see what happens 👀🔥 https://t.co/xSohZG9WMN
— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) October 2, 2022
Fitch said:sclaff said:
From ISW
The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources consistently indicate that Russian forces continued to reinforce Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, despite the recent collapse of the Kharkiv-Izyum front and even as the Russian positions around Lyman collapsed.[6] The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin's, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.
The land bridge connecting to Crimea and control of the shoreline and waters of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are paramount for Putin. Not that any given defeat is less embarrassing for him, but holding that land is tied to what he views as ensuring Russia's long term strategic position as energy provider and trade corridor to Western Europe.
The allocation of Russian manpower right now seems to be setting up a gamble that the existing forces can hang on until winter makes terrain largely impassable, allowing the conscripted forces enough time to be mobilized and create a backstop just by sheer numbers. They already know it's a war of occupation at this point, and are trying to buy time to harden positions in the south and create more of a meat grinder for the spring.
^This, what I think he is failing to realize though is by conceding in Luhansk and the Donbas there's a chance of cutting off the south of Ukraine from a direct land connection to Russia. By which point the only way to supply will be through the Crimean bridge which at that point would then be within striking distance
^^^ Proven fake. Just more anti Ukraine propaganda
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xtpml9/it_turns_out_even_the_annexation_rally_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
This is what a dystopian state looks like. For those who don't Reddit, it's the TV broadcast of the annexation event in Moscow contrasted with phone video on the street of the same event. In the TV version, the crowd sounds rabidly behind the speaker when the reality on the ground was silence.
This is what a dystopian state looks like. For those who don't Reddit, it's the TV broadcast of the annexation event in Moscow contrasted with phone video on the street of the same event. In the TV version, the crowd sounds rabidly behind the speaker when the reality on the ground was silence.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
FIDO95 said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xtpml9/it_turns_out_even_the_annexation_rally_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
This is what a dystopian state looks like. For those who don't Reddit, it's the TV broadcast of the annexation event in Moscow contrasted with phone video on the street of the same event. In the TV version, the crowd sounds rabidly behind the speaker when the reality on the ground was silence.
North Korea vibes
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xtpml9/it_turns_out_even_the_annexation_rally_in/?context=3FIDO95 said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xtpml9/it_turns_out_even_the_annexation_rally_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
This is what a dystopian state looks like. For those who don't Reddit, it's the TV broadcast of the annexation event in Moscow contrasted with phone video on the street of the same event. In the TV version, the crowd sounds rabidly behind the speaker when the reality on the ground was silence.
lobopride said:
I just don't see how either side stops fighting. At least with current Russian leadership.
Yep, this thing will last for years and effectively depopulate eastern Ukraine and mortally wound Russia for many generations.
Remains to be seen but this could be the end of Russia as we know it.rgag12 said:lobopride said:
I just don't see how either side stops fighting. At least with current Russian leadership.
Yep, this thing will last for years and effectively depopulate eastern Ukraine and mortally wound Russia for many generations.
Reports coming in about a major armored push south from the Ukrainians today.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 2, 2022
They took nearly 20km of territory between Zolota Balka & Dudchany.
This is 20km of territory that Russia “annexed” a few days ago & considers part of the Russian Federation.
Shows how weak they are. pic.twitter.com/md2SyiCwrX
Man I wish they'd consolidate that push where it is. Get a bridge head over, and then push south. That entire area would panic and fold.
That big body of water on the Ukes' left as they push south is like a fence pushing the livestock to slaughter.
On the heels of a huge victory in the North the Ukes kick off a push in the South. RuZZia is reeling. Keep pushing and kick RuZZia's teeth in.
rgag12 said:lobopride said:
I just don't see how either side stops fighting. At least with current Russian leadership.
Yep, this thing will last for years and effectively depopulate eastern Ukraine and mortally wound Russia for many generations.
In terms of resource depletion for manpower, weapons, ammo, fuel and vehicles, what do you estimate/calculate the fractional exchange rate is at present? From what you stated I assumethat your putting it at roughly 1:1.
My sense is that Ukraine is inflicting losses at about 1.4:1 in manpower and closer to 2:1 for equipment.
The reserves of war materiel for Russia seem to be at or near depletion for Kalibr rockets, tanks less than 50 years old, and artillery of ll varieties. Their manpower situation is far worse based on the social media posts of ill-equipped, poorly qualified, horribly led troops that are in a state of near rebellion even before they are deployed.
The Ukrainians by contrast are getting constant flows of weapons of improving quality and endless linesof credit for fuel, food, and other materiel. Their morale appears high and they are confident and executing every day like the Green Bay Packers under Vince Lombardi's leadership.
Everything about the situation suggests to me that Russia's culmination point was in late July or early August. It looked a lotlike a stalemate from June-July but it's looking likea rout to me.
What do you see in terms of resources that would allow this war to continue for years?
Agree. And while it may sound grim, 300k to a million more men are shipping into Ukraine, so we'd hope for more of these turkey shoots along with mass surrenderoldmanguy said:
The retreat from Lyman, from reading some of the first hand reports posted above, seems to be a Turkey shoot similar to the Marianas or the Highway of Death in Iraq.
Ulysses90 said:rgag12 said:lobopride said:
I just don't see how either side stops fighting. At least with current Russian leadership.
Yep, this thing will last for years and effectively depopulate eastern Ukraine and mortally wound Russia for many generations.
In terms of resource depletion for manpower, weapons, ammo, fuel and vehicles, what do you estimate/calculate the fractional exchange rate is at present? From what you stated I assumethat your putting it at roughly 1:1.
My sense is that Ukraine is inflicting losses at about 1.4:1 in manpower and closer to 2:1 for equipment.
The reserves of war materiel for Russia seem to be at or near depletion for Kalibr rockets, tanks less than 50 years old, and artillery of ll varieties. Their manpower situation is far worse based on the social media posts of ill-equipped, poorly qualified, horribly led troops that are in a state of near rebellion even before they are deployed.
The Ukrainians by contrast are getting constant flows of weapons of improving quality and endless linesof credit for fuel, food, and other materiel. Their morale appears high and they are confident and executing every day like the Green Bay Packers under Vince Lombardi's leadership.
Everything about the situation suggests to me that Russia's culmination point was in late July or early August. It looked a lotlike a stalemate from June-July but it's looking likea rout to me.
What do you see in terms of resources that would allow this war to continue for years?
Due to the HIMARS good works on ammo dumps and C2, coupled with massive losses, your ratios are likely much higher if you account for lack of combat effectiveness of what hasn't been destroyed.
The east will be taken back much sooner than anticipated but the south will become russias alamo. Its location is strategically vital with the river flowing through it and the coast line while protecting crimea. Its also ground not advantageous to be on the offensive unless you have control of the air. Ultimately I believe Ukrainian will take back ground on the south side of the Dnipro in the south, but as soon as they do I predict russia will call for cease fire to retain crimea and likely get enough global support to retain most of their 2014 land theft.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Better run that past the Ukes because I'm not so sure that they'll go for that deal.Quote:
Ultimately I believe Ukrainian will take back ground on the south side of the Dnipro in the south, but as soon as they do I predict russia will call for cease fire to retain crimea and likely get enough global support to retain most of their 2014 land theft.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Something's going on in the south if the Twitterverse is to be believed (grain of salt required)
#Kherson Oblast: Several Russian Telegram channels claim that the Ukrainian forces broke through in the northeast of Russia's Kherson pocket-to-be yesterday and today, and that Russian defenses rolled back to Dudchany - if true it's a 20km deep breakthrough. pic.twitter.com/lgK5Q3HJBO
— English Luhansk (@loogunda) October 2, 2022
Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces are trying to take over Beryslav city. If these claims are true,this would indicate that Ukrainian soldiers have breached around 72 km into Russian lines in Kherson Oblast. Furthermore, Dudchany was allegedly taken over a few hours ago. pic.twitter.com/RgZajRMEK7
— CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) October 2, 2022
Been watching this for weeks. And “right bank” translates to Americans as the “western bank” of the Dnipro River. Not a good place for the RU to be. https://t.co/BwXldOaPR9
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) October 2, 2022
And in the north.
The Kreminna-Svatove line is collapsing for the Russians. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing to take control of Kreminna, the P-66 highway, and crossings of the Krasna River.
— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) October 2, 2022
Rashist forces are reported to be fleeing Kreminna, towards Rubizhne and Severodonets'k. pic.twitter.com/02kiCgl1g8
agent-maroon said:Better run that past the Ukes because I'm not so sure that they'll go for that deal.Quote:
Ultimately I believe Ukrainian will take back ground on the south side of the Dnipro in the south, but as soon as they do I predict russia will call for cease fire to retain crimea and likely get enough global support to retain most of their 2014 land theft.
In the hypothetical situation where we wanted Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, it doesn't really matter what Ukraine wants. If the US and NATO want a ceasefire and are willing to stop the aid, that's it.
Except both have publicly stated over and over that the east and Crimea are Ukraine. So thankfully it appears there is no intention to suddenly bend over and bow to Russia.
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