***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,597,495 Views | 47841 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by Ag with kids
CondensedFogAggie
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The dad is away fighting in the east. It breaks my heart thinking how he'll have to return to bury his family.

Who?mikejones!
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Waffledynamics
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AG


Waffledynamics
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I'm hearing rumors that WarGonzo, a prominent Russian milblogger, is probably caught up in the events around Lyman and can't get out. It will be interesting to see what happens to him.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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For those unfamiliar, Rybar is a pro-Russian milblogger.
CondensedFogAggie
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Waffledynamics said:

For those unfamiliar, Rybar is a pro-Russian milblogger.

Well then, his next blog can be about Ukrainian POW facilities.
Waffledynamics
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Interestingly, Binkov believes the Kherson offensive has not been a feint by Ukraine, and that it has been indeed legitimate but stalled. He makes a decent case for this.
Fitch
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History belongs to the victor. We'll see in a year's time where the border lands.

Slava Ukraini
Gordo14
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Waffledynamics said:



Interestingly, Binkov believes the Kherson offensive has not been a feint by Ukraine, and that it has been indeed legitimate but stalled. He makes a decent case for this.


I don't think it's a feint or stalled. I think the terrian is terrible for offensive maneuvers, and I think Russia has dedicated a ton of power to defending it. It's not really possible to overrun it like Kharkiv. Also Ukraine is trying to be very strategic about it's manpower so that they don't throw soldiers into the meat grinder. I think Ukraine's plan is to slowly grind them down with strategic airstrikes and artillery. Taking land only when the time is right. And constantly destroying the Russian supply lines. I think winter is a more realistic time frame for Ukraine to win on this front.
txags92
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Gordo14 said:

Waffledynamics said:



Interestingly, Binkov believes the Kherson offensive has not been a feint by Ukraine, and that it has been indeed legitimate but stalled. He makes a decent case for this.


I don't think it's a feint or stalled. I think the terrian is terrible for offensive maneuvers, and I think Russia has dedicated a ton of power to defending it. It's not really possible to overrun it like Kharkiv. Also Ukraine is trying to be very strategic about it's manpower so that they don't throw soldiers into the meat grinder. I think Ukraine's plan is to slowly grind them down with strategic airstrikes and artillery. Taking land only when the time is right. And constantly destroying the Russian supply lines. I think winter is a more realistic time frame for Ukraine to win on this front.
I agree, but I also think they are trying to slowly starve the remaining orc troops in Kherson of critical supplies like ammunition. While they do that, they are slowly encircling them from the north. If they can make those troops feel like they are losing the means to defend their positions and that the door is about to close behind them, they will eventually break and run like the troops up north did.
CondensedFogAggie
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Everything about this whole mobilization is so ****ing stupid.
CondensedFogAggie
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Well at least the title is right. Unless they surrender.
CondensedFogAggie
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Off topic, but some of this art is pretty amazing/inspiring.

CondensedFogAggie
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CondensedFogAggie said:



The dad is away fighting in the east. It breaks my heart thinking how he'll have to return to bury his family.
https://instagr.am/p/CjGlF1Jq77G
Blackbeard94
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Grapes said:

wangus12 said:

docb said:

Interestingly I had a Russian middle aged man and his wife in my office yesterday and briefly chatted about the war. The man was pretty adamant that what Putin is doing is justified. I was surprised to hear this from a Russian that lives here.


So ge was totally fine accepting that Putin's decision is likely going to destroy his country? Did you ask if he was volunteering for conscription?


I find it surprising that this thread is so one sided. There is a significant block of the world that thinks the Ukraine, NATO and the US are corrupt as **** and the ones in the wrong here.


Corruption does not justify mass murder. You donjot invade and fire missiles at civilians because of corruption.

No, you do it because you have revanchist fantasies. You do it because you remember the glory days if Stalin, Lubianka prison and the gulag and all of the other glories Russian civilization has brought.
P.U.T.U
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txags92 said:

Gordo14 said:

Waffledynamics said:



Interestingly, Binkov believes the Kherson offensive has not been a feint by Ukraine, and that it has been indeed legitimate but stalled. He makes a decent case for this.


I don't think it's a feint or stalled. I think the terrian is terrible for offensive maneuvers, and I think Russia has dedicated a ton of power to defending it. It's not really possible to overrun it like Kharkiv. Also Ukraine is trying to be very strategic about it's manpower so that they don't throw soldiers into the meat grinder. I think Ukraine's plan is to slowly grind them down with strategic airstrikes and artillery. Taking land only when the time is right. And constantly destroying the Russian supply lines. I think winter is a more realistic time frame for Ukraine to win on this front.
I agree, but I also think they are trying to slowly starve the remaining orc troops in Kherson of critical supplies like ammunition. While they do that, they are slowly encircling them from the north. If they can make those troops feel like they are losing the means to defend their positions and that the door is about to close behind them, they will eventually break and run like the troops up north did.
I read reports of lots of rain in the area and causing the Ukes to not be able to move equipment as quickly.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
benchmark
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benchmark
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Waffledynamics
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I can't recall if it was Denys or someone else that said it, but those retreating Russians are supposedly under heavy fire as they beat it out of that area.
Waffledynamics
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This begs the question: are we even sure Putin knows what's happening as he makes his idiot speech and signs his useless annexation decrees?
80sGeorge
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Replies say possibly I dead Ukrainian next to Russians or Russian uniform and helmet was trying to escape with blue tape.
P.U.T.U
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That happened a lot in the Donbas war, almost impossible to tell the Ukes from the Russian separatist to the standard Russian troops. The deeper the Ukes push the more the lines are going to blur
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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ABATTBQ11
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Those are some sweet tactical tennis shoes
Robk
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Hmmm, Don't think can happen but who knows. (should say they can apply, but I don't think they would be accepted at this point.)

On Live UA and several 2nd hand tweets now.

aezmvp
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Robk said:

Hmmm, Don't think can happen but who knows. (should say they can apply, but I don't think they would be accepted at this point.)

On Live UA and several 2nd hand tweets now.


NATO will absolutely not do this. At least not yet. Georgia also would not be accepted currently as a full member. It would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia for the whole organization. Not happening.
Robk
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aezmvp said:

Robk said:

Hmmm, Don't think can happen but who knows. (should say they can apply, but I don't think they would be accepted at this point.)

On Live UA and several 2nd hand tweets now.


NATO will absolutely not do this. At least not yet. Georgia also would not be accepted currently as a full member. It would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia for the whole organization. Not happening.
I agree, tend to think at this point it is symbolic, and more geared to "after" the war. If it is true they are applying at all.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

President Zelensky: It is impossible to hold talks with Putin, as he knows no honor or dignity. We are ready to talk with Russia, with another President


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/30-september-president-zelensky-it-is-impossible-to-hold
aezmvp
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Robk said:

aezmvp said:

Robk said:

Hmmm, Don't think can happen but who knows. (should say they can apply, but I don't think they would be accepted at this point.)

On Live UA and several 2nd hand tweets now.


NATO will absolutely not do this. At least not yet. Georgia also would not be accepted currently as a full member. It would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia for the whole organization. Not happening.
I agree, tend to think at this point it is symbolic, and more geared to "after" the war. If it is true they are applying at all.
I think even if the Russians lose that Ukraine being part of NATO might represent a bright red line. Maybe in the chaos if Putin goes down it's possible but if I'm the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Turkey or Spain I'd be really wary of doing this. It makes sense from the Baltics, Poland, Balkan country perspectives. Maybe Finland and Sweden too. But for anyone really West of Poland I don't think it's a great idea. Not they aren't worthy of entry? I mean would the Ukes be a stronger member than say Austria or Belgium? Yeah, clearly. But I think that's not in the Alliance's best interest any time soon. Better to make them an associate and deep ties and integrations, joint training exercises, integration into defense standards and equipment synergies all that but you can do a lot to sync up without admitting them.
GarryowenAg
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GarryowenAg
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Interesting clarification by Zelensky
lb3
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Nissan should be using these videos in their Navara commercials.

To make it more thread friendly, the fact the Ukes are still using retail pickups for troop transport instead of all the donated armored vehicles leads to more questions than answers. Has their armor/HMMWVs/MRAPs been destroyed, or do they still not have enough purpose built vehicles? Is it an issue of not being able to supply diesel fuels along transport routes?

On that note, can anyone tell from that video whether the Navara/Frontier is gas or diesel?
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