***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,601,335 Views | 47846 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by sclaff
74OA
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2wealfth Man said:

looks like the TOW is now in the house. Per the tweet they will all have the Improved Target Acquisition systems.

Wireless version?
AlaskanAg99
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Isn't the TOW an older ATGM?

Not sure why it's use would be something of note.
74OA
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Isn't the TOW an older ATGM?

Not sure why it's use would be something of note.
Long range, heavy hitter, now wireless in its latest version.
Waffledynamics
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Good video packed with a lot of information, some of which has already been covered here. I'd recommend watching or at least just listening to it if you get a bit.

TL;DW: Ukraine is doing well. Russia is not. Also, Russia's losing a lot of aircraft lately.
Waffledynamics
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Bird Poo said:

I'm not hearing much about the tens of thousands of women and children that were shipped off to Eastern Russia. Was any of that confirmed?

If RU kidnapped thousands, then Zelenski should definitely take Crimea.
I would be surprised if we'll hear much about them, as part of that information would need to come from the Russians. I doubt they're interested in sharing information about their own human trafficking crimes.

Sadly, many of those people are likely lost forever, and I do not envy any of them.
NavyAg92
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If this goes into the Winter, Ukraine might be taking over Russia. There's absolutely no way Russia can sustain a war of this magnitude throughout the Winter. None whatsoever. They were never prepared for this invasion. And now their weaponry, supplies, etc. are so depleted that all they'll have left by March is snowballs.
CondensedFogAggie
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Thymes
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Wagner tactics in Bakhmut

"Unlike in Lyman, where there is a mix of Russian reservists, separatists and regular army forces, the area around Bakhmut is largely controlled by the Wagner Group, an infamous paramilitary force that reports directly to the Kremlin.

"Ukrainian soldiers near the front say that Wagner's ranks are bolstered by prison inmates from the separatist regions who were drafted into service. One Ukrainian soldier, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for security reasons, said Wagner's forces attack only so far before sending inmates with little support forward to face Ukrainian guns like "cannon fodder."

"These tactics have left Ukrainian forces in the region with a flood of prisoners as the inmates frequently surrender. Another soldier, who also spoke anonymously, said Russian forces would not trade captured Ukrainian forces for inmates: the one-time Russian prisoners, now Ukrainian prisoners, are seen as deserters."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/world/europe/ukraine-donbas-russia-lyman-bakhmut.html





Waffledynamics
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This tracks, given the interview earlier with the Russian POW in Ukraine's hands. Russia seems unwilling to admit that there are any POWs in Ukraine.

Russia is operating in such a disgusting and outdated manner. It's like their mentality stopped in WW2 when it comes to waging a war.
lb3
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:


This looked like an ineffective attack on my phone. All the Russians (except the one on the bottom-right) jumped in the trench prior to detonation.
Ulysses90
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74OA said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

Isn't the TOW an older ATGM?

Not sure why it's use would be something of note.
Long range, heavy hitter, now wireless in its latest version.


The significance of the TOW being employed by Ukraine is the realization that the Russians are so hapless that an optically guided missile is a viable weapon. Despite the long fly-out time the Russians aren't able to fire back. The TOW also requires more training and skill to employ than a fire & forget missile like the Javelin. That means that not only do the Russians lack the ability to kill TOW gunners while the missile is being gidentified but the Ukrainians have had training to become proficient.
AlaskanAg99
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Thanks for the info.

Ukes cannot enter Russian territory. That will cause Puting to immediately go nuclear and wipe Kyiv off thr face of the earth. I think everyone knows this.

The only question is will he do it if they take back the Crimea.
2wealfth Man
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Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines coming out of Russia have been sabotaged . Took place in deep water which would require submarines or special forces or some kind of guided underwater torpedo / drone. Huge repercussions for European energy. Also takes the whole threaten to cut off gas to Europe gambit for Putin off the table.

https://mailbd.net/news/germany-suspects-targeted-attack-on-russian-gas-pipeline-5532/
dtkprowler
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Only takes a small piece of shrapnel to cause lasting issues on a battle field. Especially one as poorly supported and supplied as russia. Also, the level of paranoia alone will cause mental stress the russians probably can't afford. Didn't blow body parts in the air, but its doing work anyway.
Gaius Julius Bevo
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2wealfth Man said:

Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines coming out of Russia have been sabotaged . Took place in deep water which would require submarines and or special forces. Huge repercussions for European energy today. Also takes the whole threaten to cut off gas to Europe gambit for Putin off the table.

https://mailbd.net/news/germany-suspects-targeted-attack-on-russian-gas-pipeline-5532/
Ukraine has no submarines, so that means some other country did it if the sabotage was conducted by a sub attack.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukrainian-navy-used-have-submarine-no-longer-145117
2wealfth Man
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Gaius Julius Bevo said:

2wealfth Man said:

Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines coming out of Russia have been sabotaged . Took place in deep water which would require submarines and or special forces. Huge repercussions for European energy today. Also takes the whole threaten to cut off gas to Europe gambit for Putin off the table.

https://mailbd.net/news/germany-suspects-targeted-attack-on-russian-gas-pipeline-5532/
Ukraine has no submarines, so that means some other country did it if the sabotage was conducted by a sub attack.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukrainian-navy-used-have-submarine-no-longer-145117
Also in the Baltic, nowhere near Ukrainian territory. I added to my post above that maybe an underwater remote guided drone or torpedo? False flag operation by Russia? someone in Russia trying to take down Putin? Environmental terrorists?

Lots of questions
BusterAg
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NavyAg92 said:

If this goes into the Winter, Ukraine might be taking over Russia. There's absolutely no way Russia can sustain a war of this magnitude throughout the Winter. None whatsoever. They were never prepared for this invasion. And now their weaponry, supplies, etc. are so depleted that all they'll have left by March is snowballs.
I think that if Ukraine moves into Russia, 100% of Western aid stops immediately, and they may even be sanctioned by the West. I don't think they go there.
txaggie_08
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2wealfth Man said:

Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines coming out of Russia have been sabotaged . Took place in deep water which would require submarines or special forces or some kind of guided underwater torpedo / drone. Huge repercussions for European energy today. Also takes the whole threaten to cut off gas to Europe gambit for Putin off the table.

https://mailbd.net/news/germany-suspects-targeted-attack-on-russian-gas-pipeline-5532/

Hasn't Russia already turned the gas off to Europe? Pretty sure that move has already been played.
wangus12
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FriscoKid said:

Russia is going to be lucky to hold on to Crimea at this point. Every move they are making now is desperate and digging the hole deeper and deeper.

This is going to go down in history as a pretty big military defeat. I have a hard time seeing how the two side are going to call a truce and let Russia keep one square inch of Ukraine land.

Putin made a seriously horrible judgement call in February and they got their asses kicked. If they launch Nukes then they will fail to exist as a country anymore. But, outside of Nukes I think they are out of options.
In the current direction they're heading, they probably not gonna exist as the Russia we know anyway. Putin manage to topple a "super" power all on his own.
Proc92
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I could see Putin setting off some small form of wmd on Russian border territory or Belarus to provide a reason to kick off a small nuke retaliation on Kiev if things keep going south.
Ulysses90
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txaggie_08 said:

2wealfth Man said:

Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines coming out of Russia have been sabotaged . Took place in deep water which would require submarines or special forces or some kind of guided underwater torpedo / drone. Huge repercussions for European energy today. Also takes the whole threaten to cut off gas to Europe gambit for Putin off the table.

https://mailbd.net/news/germany-suspects-targeted-attack-on-russian-gas-pipeline-5532/

Hasn't Russia already turned the gas off to Europe? Pretty sure that move has already been played.

The card that had yet to be played was to externally remove the potential for Russia to turn it back on. This appears to be a US initiative to stop the Germans from going squishy and pandering to Russian demands when the weather gets cold.

This action has instantly shut down the appeasement lobby in Berlin because it shows that Russia is not in control of Nordstream 2, the US is. In Berlin now the Ukraine victory faction (though it is almost nonexistent there) is in a position of advantage. The best chance of a return to stability in the German energy market and their economy is for Russia to lose and the post-Putin regime to be allowed to restart the pipeline. I have nothing bad to say about the Biden administration's action in this case.
PJYoung
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MouthBQ98
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Oh no! We can't turn the pipeline back on! Nothing we can do, can't buy any more Russian gas. Just have to pay higher prices through the winter and bear it. Wink wink /German political leadership.

It's a great public excuse for those on the western end to keep the pipe off no matter the political pressure.

This keeps a LOT of cash out of Russia, which will turn up the pressure there, pun intended.
cone
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regardless, energy infrastructure sabotage is now on the table
2wealfth Man
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MouthBQ98 said:

Oh no! We can't turn the pipeline back on! Nothing we can do, can't buy any more Russian gas. Just have to pay higher prices through the winter and bear it. Wink wink /German political leadership.

It's a great public excuse for those on the western end to keep the pipe off no matter the political pressure.

This keeps a LOT of cash out of Russia, which will turn up the pressure there, pun intended.
maybe those German tanks make their way to Ukraine now
javajaws
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Ulysses90 said:

txaggie_08 said:

2wealfth Man said:

Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines coming out of Russia have been sabotaged . Took place in deep water which would require submarines or special forces or some kind of guided underwater torpedo / drone. Huge repercussions for European energy today. Also takes the whole threaten to cut off gas to Europe gambit for Putin off the table.

https://mailbd.net/news/germany-suspects-targeted-attack-on-russian-gas-pipeline-5532/

Hasn't Russia already turned the gas off to Europe? Pretty sure that move has already been played.

The card that had yet to be played was to externally remove the potential for Russia to turn it back on. This appears to be a US initiative to stop the Germans from going squishy and pandering to Russian demands when the weather gets cold.

This action has instantly shut down the appeasement lobby in Berlin because it shows that Russia is not in control of Nordstream 2, the US is. In Berlin now the Ukraine victory faction (though it is almost nonexistent there) is in a position of advantage. The best chance of a return to stability in the German energy market and their economy is for Russia to lose and the post-Putin regime to be allowed to restart the pipeline. I have nothing bad to say about the Biden administration's action in this case.
You have proof it was the US? This seems like pure speculation on your part being passed off as fact.

Not saying it couldn't have been us. But the political cost if it was found we were behind this is astronomical making it less likely it was us. Biden doesn't really have balls that big.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
one MEEN Ag
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cone said:

regardless, energy infrastructure sabotage is now on the table
Was probably already on the table given that LNG terminal explosion in houston.
FireAg
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one MEEN Ag said:

cone said:

regardless, energy infrastructure sabotage is now on the table
Was probably already on the table given that LNG terminal explosion in houston.
Has someone said that event was sabotage? News to me...
lobopride
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I think we are missing the most obvious answer. In my midstream natural gas experience a pipeline that is shutdown usually operates at much higher pressure than a flowing pipeline.

I don't think any country would benefit from this action so I am betting on just a routine leak.
AgLA06
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cone said:

regardless, energy infrastructure sabotage is now on the table
Definitely a concern.

Assuming this was the first example of energy infrastructure sabotage. And I'm not convinced that is the case.
2wealfth Man
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https://mailbd.net/news/germany-suspects-targeted-attack-on-russian-gas-pipeline-5532/

1 and 2 both went down, long odds of that at the same time


Ag In Ok
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Werent we the ones who cut into the fiber lines on the sea floor in the early 2000's?
AgLA06
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javajaws said:

Ulysses90 said:

txaggie_08 said:

2wealfth Man said:

Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines coming out of Russia have been sabotaged . Took place in deep water which would require submarines or special forces or some kind of guided underwater torpedo / drone. Huge repercussions for European energy today. Also takes the whole threaten to cut off gas to Europe gambit for Putin off the table.

https://mailbd.net/news/germany-suspects-targeted-attack-on-russian-gas-pipeline-5532/

Hasn't Russia already turned the gas off to Europe? Pretty sure that move has already been played.

The card that had yet to be played was to externally remove the potential for Russia to turn it back on. This appears to be a US initiative to stop the Germans from going squishy and pandering to Russian demands when the weather gets cold.

This action has instantly shut down the appeasement lobby in Berlin because it shows that Russia is not in control of Nordstream 2, the US is. In Berlin now the Ukraine victory faction (though it is almost nonexistent there) is in a position of advantage. The best chance of a return to stability in the German energy market and their economy is for Russia to lose and the post-Putin regime to be allowed to restart the pipeline. I have nothing bad to say about the Biden administration's action in this case.
You have proof it was the US? This seems like pure speculation on your part being passed off as fact.

Not saying it couldn't have been us. But the political cost if it was found we were behind this is astronomical making it less likely it was us. Biden doesn't really have balls that big.
Probably why he used the term appears.
javajaws
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AgLA06 said:

javajaws said:

Ulysses90 said:

txaggie_08 said:

2wealfth Man said:

Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines coming out of Russia have been sabotaged . Took place in deep water which would require submarines or special forces or some kind of guided underwater torpedo / drone. Huge repercussions for European energy today. Also takes the whole threaten to cut off gas to Europe gambit for Putin off the table.

https://mailbd.net/news/germany-suspects-targeted-attack-on-russian-gas-pipeline-5532/

Hasn't Russia already turned the gas off to Europe? Pretty sure that move has already been played.

The card that had yet to be played was to externally remove the potential for Russia to turn it back on. This appears to be a US initiative to stop the Germans from going squishy and pandering to Russian demands when the weather gets cold.

This action has instantly shut down the appeasement lobby in Berlin because it shows that Russia is not in control of Nordstream 2, the US is. In Berlin now the Ukraine victory faction (though it is almost nonexistent there) is in a position of advantage. The best chance of a return to stability in the German energy market and their economy is for Russia to lose and the post-Putin regime to be allowed to restart the pipeline. I have nothing bad to say about the Biden administration's action in this case.
You have proof it was the US? This seems like pure speculation on your part being passed off as fact.

Not saying it couldn't have been us. But the political cost if it was found we were behind this is astronomical making it less likely it was us. Biden doesn't really have balls that big.
Probably why he used the term appears.

Quote:

This action has instantly shut down the appeasement lobby in Berlin because it shows that Russia is not in control of Nordstream 2, the US is


Quote:

I have nothing bad to say about the Biden administration's action in this case
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
wessimo
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